Comments on: Box-Office Oracle: Mar. 6 – Mar. 8, 2009

By: JM

JM — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 03:07:52 +0000

Question to ponder:

How much of Taken's money is really just teenagers trying to sneak into Watchmen?

By: Allison Huggins

Allison Huggins — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 19:13:21 +0000

you're crazy.
the jonas brothers are amazing<3
and they're movie, deserves a whole lot more.
this is crap.

By: Bustray

Bustray — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 04:46:34 +0000

My predics differ a bit:

1. Watchmen- $78 million
2. Slumdog Millionaire- $6.6 million
3. Madea Goes To Jail- $6.1 million
4. Taken- $5.7 million
5. Jonas Brothers 3D- $4.7 million
6. He's Just Not That Into You- $4.1 million
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop- $3.6 million
8. Coraline- $3.2 million
9. Confessions of a Shopaholic- $2.7 million
10. The Reader- $2.4 million

By: Philip

Philip — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:46:25 +0000

I think that Watchmen should gross no more than 80 mill, but i really don't understand all the comic book craze in the US…Here in Europe we are not going that nuts for comic book based movies(That's why their gross usually isn't as big as in the US)…BUT i think there are 2 things wrong in your chart Laremy..I am predicting 8+ mill for Slumdog, which is definately riding high on it's Oscar glory, plus it has been no1 for every weekday this week..Also the International will definately be in the top 10, i am guessing no10 with 3 mill..

By: SteelyD

SteelyD — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:24:36 +0000

Really confused as to why there's so little competition out there over the last few weeks. I think I could pick 4-5 films coming out in the next three weeks that would have made much more opening Oscar weekend. Yeah, the Oscar telecast probably hurts their total, but the plush landscape ahead would have been better than the competitive ones they're entering.

By: Laremy

Laremy — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 06:30:29 +0000

Peter over at /Film is guessing $60m.

To respond to a couple of the comments:

I think word-of-mouth eventually kills this film well below $175m overall. But this weekend word won't spread quickly enough — and people need something to do. This is a case study in other studios getting out of the way due to hype.

Wanted is a very good call Vince. The only counterargument I'd throw out is Watchmen has had 23 years to capture the attention of people. I think that will help it quite a bit, especially given 300 was only 8 years old when the movie came out.

Last point: Watchmen isn't nearly as female friendly as 300. Brad made this point during our IM convo and it definitely gave me pause. It's hard to filter the internet noise on this title, Watchmen has a ton of internet fans. But are there 10 million of them? No way. So how well it translates to everyone else will determine the number from $50 to $100m.

By: aerinpegadrak

aerinpegadrak — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 06:12:06 +0000

Looking at Movietickets.com, most of the midnight shows near me are sold out, and it looks like there are a few sold out shows tomorrow, plus it looks like several locations have added showtimes for it. It's going to be frontloaded as all hell, but I think it's going to make good money.

I hope the rumors of the director's cut getting a theatrical showing in New York and LA pan out. They could charge $100 a ticket and I'd still scrounge up the cash.

By: j_kad

j_kad — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 06:07:48 +0000

i like his comment about downloaders and "Taken"… although there has been a dvd quality download since October 11/08 so I don't think that the region 2 release is going to change anything… but what do i know… as for "Watchmen" i have not read the book and it's the only big movie out and most ppl will probably not even look at reviews before they go this weekend so I think that it will do better – entertainment usually does not suffer during hard times, it will most likely be one of the few things like alcohol and sex related things that will actually see an increase in tough times… (maybe will sell less popcorn though… :P)

By: bryce

bryce — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 05:32:43 +0000

i dont think the economy has anything to do with ppl going to see movies…i work at a theater in GA and opening weekend for Madea was the biggest turn-out we have seen for a movie since its opening years ago before all this economy crap. but i hope watchmen is great and ppl see it although i trust your opinion.

By: Brad Brevet

Brad Brevet — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 05:16:08 +0000

Just because I don't think Watchmen will go that high I will toss my name in the ring here and go with $77 million. I base this on an IM discussion Laremy and I had while he was coming up with his predictions and there is no science behind it…

By: Vince

Vince — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 04:06:07 +0000

Thanks Laremy for mentioning me in the last Oracle Wrap-Up, I felt so special!!!

Anyways, I had predicted $50 mil, and I'm bumping that up to low $60 million today (I'm saying around $63 million, give or take), just because the buzz is killer this week and today in particular.

Here's why "Watchmen" might not do as well as people may hope: Those who have no idea what the big deal behind Watchmen will be largely confused when watching the film, plus they might feel "tricked" in that the film is not just a bloody R-Rated action film but a contemplation on superheroes and normal humans in an alternate world.

The reviews aren't stellar, but neither were those for "300" and that film did quite alright. But here's the thing. Watchmen is a far harder sell to people then "300". 300 had the whole epic retelling of a famous battle (for the older folks- those who went to go see "Troy" and the like), and it also had the graphic novel following. Plus, it was the one action movie that played to girls as well (the Queen character was central to some ads)

"Wanted" is more comparable to "Watchmen" i feel. Both have their audiences from a "cult" novel, but "Wanted" was depicted as a run-and-gun assassin movie with Angelina Jolie as a temptress- and most of the promotion relied on Angelina Jolie's starpower. "Watchmen" doesn't have any real star power, but it has far more hype than "Wanted" did.

Look for word of mouth to sink in next week, badly (although the film will still be tops…barely) and "Watchmen" will make it to around $135-140 final.

I hope it'll do better and I'll be glad and surprised if it does, but I have my doubts.