Box-Office Oracle: Mar. 5 – Mar. 7, 2010
COMMENTS
Alice in Wonderland will win. But will it break the March record?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
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| Well, I'm going to get this weekend correct at the top at least. The question is, how high will Alice in Wonderland go? Some predictors have it beating 300's March opening weekend record of $70.8m. I can't see that happening, if only because Alice in Wonderland isn't going to bring in all the demos, just the family one. I've taken an informal poll and people don't feel that The Academy Awards will hurt Alice in Wonderland at the box office. I disagree. Moms stay home to watch The Oscars, so that's half your potential Sunday audience right there. So at least the last two Sunday showings will be down. Predictions last Sunday were all over the board, some of you saw it beating 300, others didn't even have it cracking $40m. How say you now? Prediction: $63.37 million | |
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3. Avatar
The bad news? It's losing 3-D screenings to Alice in Wonderland. The good news? It always seems to make significant money. And people will be rushing to see it before The Academy Awards, so they can form a rooting interest. As such, I can only ding it 17.5 percent.
Prediction: $9.92 million
Not enough theaters, not enough marketing, not a lot of hope. No double digits for you!
Prediction: $9.78 million
6. The Crazies
Will hold up a little better, but the 600 theater advantage Cop Out holds will cost it fifth place.
Prediction: $8.2 million
Percy is getting a nice international push, it's at $167m worldwide cume. Sidenote: I like what I'm seeing from the new Zack Snyder project, Legend of the Guardians. It's all about animated hero owls. Can't miss, right?
Prediction: $5.82 million
It's going to follow a normal progression from here on out.
Prediction: $4.62 million
9. Dear John
It only made $168k in Poland. So at least some audiences out there are savvy.
Prediction: $2.59 million
10. Crazy Heart
I'll have some Oscar predictions for you on Sunday morning… but you can expect an awful lot of chalk. The top categories seem pretty clear at this point.
Prediction: $2.32 million
Your turn. Throw an Alice number at me that surprises and amuses.
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My 'Alice' prediction is lower:
$53.84 Mil
I am no good at this, but Alice with 74M? I see it has tons of showings locally, and it clocks in under two hours.
I'm actually going to predict that it will break the March/Spring record. My basis is this. "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" opened in a more crowded time slot (within the fruitful summer season) and opened to about $56 million over the 3 day period. If you adjust that to 2010 dollars, the amount is very close to $70 million (it's around $65 million actually). "Alice" is based on a far more popular novel, it has little to no competition & it'll have a boost from the 3D ticket prices. Not to mention the wild card- the "Twilight"/Hot Topic crowd (you know what I'm referring to). I know that they're going to show up in droves this weekend. I'm sure that "Alice" is getting more promotion from Hot Topic stores than it is in Disney stores.
With that said, I'm going to be conservative and say that it'll hit $71.5 million. It could go as high as $75 or as low as $63, but I'm going to go with my gut and say that it'll be somewhere in the middle.
I agree with Vince on this. Laremy don't be suprised if that prediction of yours gets crushed by an extra 20mill. This movies is going to be huge and every site that I have seen that has tracking info on it says 70mill is guranteed and the movie could go as high as 90mill. When you think it about it actually makes alot of since. The movie is the first blockbuster of 2010 and has the IMAX 3D advantage. It's based on some of the most popular source material known all over the world and unlike the heavy female skewing Twilight series this movie also has alot of strong intrest among guys and famlies. It's basically a four quadrant blockbuster ready to explode.
:My Prediction:
1. Alice – $81.5M
The three other sites I check have it anywhere from $68m – $73m… so $81.5m seems very bullish. But the higher ticket prices will certainly help.
alice-80 million
college kids want to see this, trust me, kids are huge audience, and druggies all over will get high and go see 3d imax and be blown away
1.Alice in Wonderland-$47.5 (N/A)-Oscar weekend= better hold in 2nd weekend.
2.Shutter Island-$18.3 (-18%)-will crack $100 million.
3.Brooklyn's Finest-$10.2 (N/A)-not enough theaters.
4.Cop Out-$8.1 (-57%)-EASILY the biggest dropper this week.
5.The Crazies-$8* (-51%)-good word of mouth COULD save it.
6.Avatar-$7.5 (-46%)-AIW is opening in its demo and an Oscar bounce is impossible. Don't be surprised to see it plummet.
7.Valentine's Day-$6.3 (-34%)-there you have it: first hit of the year.
8.The Lightning Thief-$5.9 (-40%)-there might be sequel depending on weekday holds.
9.Dear John-$4.8 (-0.04%)-like I said, beating Avatar was victory enough.
10.The Wolfman-$3.1 (-24%)-lost interest.
Alice practically achived $41 million on opening day. So it's weekend result will be way more than $47 million.
I'm really surprised everybody is predicting Alice so high. I wouldn't guess over 50M. But I'm far from an expert.
I think Alice in Wonderland will beat 300's numbers. It has several IMAX screens and many 3-D screens. Marketing for the film has been everywhere and I think it pays off this weekend.
Alice in Wonderland – $72.3 million
Fast and Furious holds the record for the biggest open weekend for a spring release ($70.9million).
Can Alice break Fast and Furious's spring record?
The last Harry Potter film opened with $77 million; Avatar also opened with $77 million. Like Potter, Alice is a family frienly film with mass appeal. Like Avatar, Alice has awesome visuals, is 3D, and is offered by people with solid reputations (Disney, Burton, Depp). It is also veritably the only serious release this weekend, With Brooklyn's Finest probably only able to get $4,600 per theater for $8.9 million. With the box office seeming to be doing better this year per film, I have to predict an $84.7 million for Alice, even though that seems a little high. Disney is doing it's part by making sure it has lot's of theaters. I will be doing my part by seeing it on friday.
1.Alice $84.7 No one was planning on seeing it on Sunday night anyway
2.Shutter Island $12.3
3.Brooklyn's Finest $8.9 not enough interest to get a 2010 bounce
4.Cop Out $8.6
5.The Crazies $8.4
"Alice in Wonderland isn't going to bring in all the demos, just the family one."
Sorry, I think you're wrong on this one. I think the 16-25 demo views this as a major 3D hipster event, and the name recognition (Alice in Wonderland + Depp + Burton) equals bonkers business.
You also have to factor in that this is first major 3D film post-Avatar.
I just think it's never been all that accessible as a story. But we'll know soon enough.
1. Alice in Wonderland–$73.2mil. Sure, it may not bring in all the demos, but did "300"? That was rated R, so it cut out the younger teen demo and the family demo. And yet it reached $70mil. Also, Alice is the first event movie since "Avatar."
2. Shutter Island–$14.1mil. Decent fall, in the high 30's.
3. Avatar–$9.6mil. It is actually NOT losing all its 3D screens. Where I live in Charlotte, every theater that has more than one 3D screen is reserving one for Avatar. And those that have only one 3D screen are simply moving Avatar from a 3D to a 2D screen. So I'm also predicting a good hold. Were it not for Alice, it could probably manage a slight increase due to Oscar attention, but as it is, I have to put it around -30%. Though that was a lot better than the original -50% or -60% as I once expected.
4. Cop Out–$8.8mil. Sadly, when comedies open big they normally hold pretty well. Even badly reviewed ones.
5. The Crazies–$7.4mil. Hills Have Eyes fell only 49%. But this one has had slightly less impressive weekday holds, so I'm saying -54%. Not at all bad for a horror movie, but still not impressive. I'm seeing it when I get back home, though.
6. Brooklyn's Finest–$7.2mil. What a crash-and-burner.
7. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief–$5.5mil. Alice will hurt it some, but it looks like it's on its ways to a profit.
8. Valentine's Day–$4.6mil. Another less-than-stellar hold. Alice will be big among the teenage girl audience.
9. Crazy Heart–$3.2mil. It's going to get a 30% bump, I can feel it. "The Reader" got a bump last year, and this movie is get another slight theater increase.
10. Dear John–$3.0mil.
Oh, and since I had to predict it for the BOM races, I'm saying "The Wolfman" gets $1.8mil. It's losing over 1000 theaters, and its holds even without losing theaters were pretty damn bad. So I'm expecting no sequel and no classic monster film lineups.
I always feel better to find my predictions very close to Laremy's. But…. we might both be wrong.
1. Alice in Wonder…..61.5
2. Shutter Island……14.6
3. Avatar ………….10.8
4. Cop Out …………8.7
5. Brooklyn's Finest…6.8
6. The Crazies………6.6
7. Percy Jackson…….5.5
8. Valentines……….4.8
9. Dear John………..3.0
10. Tooth Fairy………2.3
11. Crazy Heart………2.1
12. Wolfman………….1.7
1. ALICE IN WONDERLAND – $80.2 million
2. THE ISLAND OF SHUTTER – $12.8 million
3. CASE OF THE CRAZIES – $8.6 million
4. FINEST IN BROOKLYN – $7.0 million
5. WHAT A COP OUT – $6.4 million
Probably won't be seeing any of these this weekend.
Have a fun weekend everyone! :)
I haven't seen any numbers on how many 3D screens Alice is getting, which is something box office sites should probably start reporting, if the data is out there. Especially at the end of this month and the first week in April, when we get the 1-2 punch of How to Train Your Dragon and Clash of the Titans to go on top of Alice. But the last I saw, there are about 2,000 theatres and about 4,000 screens capable of running 3D, and I'm betting Alice will get at least three quarters of them from Avatar. Though most theatres that lose Avatar in 3D will swap out for a 2D print, the question is will people keep seeing it in 2D, allowing it to continue it's insane holds, or will people finally more on from it. 3D has accounted for around 80% of its sales to this point I believe, so it'll be interesting to see how it does from here on out. Anyway, I'll be seeing Alice in 2D this weekend. I'm eschewing 3D as a rule, because in my opinion it's nothing more than a cheesy gimmick.
Predicting in whole millions for now:
1. Alice in Wonderland: $65 million (nothing from 50 to 80 would surprise me much)
2. Shutter Island: $14 million
3. Avatar: $9 million (as noted above, this is kind of a crapshoot to predict this weekend)
3. Brooklyn's Finest: $9 million
5. Cop Out: $8 million
5. The Crazies: $8 million
Hard to say after that, I'll have to put some more effort into this going forward.
I've seen a reported 2,063 3D locations, and 188 IMAX 3D locations for Alice. Will most people insist on seeing it in 3D? …and yet Avatar is only losing 293 locations. There must be more multiplexes with more than one 3D screen than I thought. Probably all the newest theaters.
Thanks for those numbers. I guess Avatar will stay in 3D at the newer theatres that have all digital projectors and therefore more projectors that can run 3D. For most all-digital theatres that I've seen, usually it's between 25-50% of their projectors that have the LCD lens attachments to run 3D films. Also, I've noticed more and more theatres that previously only had one 3D projector have been adding a second one over the last few months. But that still won't be enough in four weeks. I'm really curious to see how the whole Alice/Dragon/Clash thing plays out with regard to the still limited number of 3D screens.
I have a feeling that Fast and Furious will still retain it's spring record of $70.9 million.
That movie was big due to the Top Gear/Fifth Gear crowd as well as car enthusiasts and petrolheads.
Wonderland lacks the petrolhead appeal that Fast and Furious had.
alice sold out 5 3d midnight screenings at my theater, im throwing it at 88.2 sorry but everyone is underestimating this film.
1. Alice in Wonderland….73.7
2. Shutter Island………15.0
3. Avatar……………..11.3
4. Brooklyn's Finest……11.1
5. Cop Out…………….8.2
6. The Crazies…………7.8
7. Percy Jackson……….5.6
8. Valentine's Day……..4.5
9. Dear John…………..2.5
10. Crazy Heart………..2.0
Despite mediocre reviews, I think Alice is gonna open HUGE. I disagree with the assessment that it only appeals to a limited demo; everyone will be checking this film out.
1. Alice in Wonderland – $56.6 million
2. Shutter Island – $16.8 million
3. Brooklyn's Finest – $10.3 million
4. Cop Out – $9.3 million
5. The Crazies – $8.0 million
6. Avatar – $8.0 million
7. Percy Jackson – $5.6 million
8. Valentine's Day – $5.4 million
9. Dear John – $3.0 million
10. Crazy Heart – $2.3 million
Bonus predict: The Ghost Writer – $1.35 million
Alice will crack the $80M. Believe me
I have to change my words
Alive will cracj the $100M! I have hope! Nothing is impossible
It would have if was showing on 4,000+ screens.
Well, I was looking up movie showtimes for AiW, and discovered two things. My medium sized city has a 3D screen shortage, and Brooklyn's Finest is going to come in below my expectations. It looks like theaters are cannibalizing it's showtimes for Alice. Almost all theaters are only giving it four showtimes all weekend which isn't going to cut it.
That's four showtimes per day.
Further research shows that only two(!) theaters in my metropolitan area have multiple 3D screens. That is as bad of news for Avatar as I originally thought. Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago have the multiple 3D theaters. Seattle only has four. Dallas, surprisingly, only has around five. Philadelphia, only around five. San Francisco, only six or so.
alice made 45 on friday alone gonna make more then 100 mil EVERYONE underestimated it this week
So pretty much the entire open weekend of The Hangover in one day then.
Im going out on a limb here- im saying 120 mil
I told to all of you, $100M was on the table
i knew my call of atleast 88 mil wasnt nuts :) GO ASK ALICE!
Alice took in $116 million in it's open weekend?! That's 300's record gone. That's also Fast and Furious' record gone too.