Box-Office Oracle: Mar. 26 – Mar. 28, 2010
COMMENTS
How to Train Your Dragon will win, much like a similar film from a year ago...
We're headed back in time this weekend, but not because of Hot Tub Time Machine. Nope, it's because on March 27, 2009 a little 3-D film called Monsters vs. Aliens was released by Paramount (Dreamworks). Now why would I bring that up?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Weeks In A Row
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| Dat's a BINGO! Monsters vs. Aliens opened at $59.3m last March. So why will How to Train Your Dragon fare just slightly worse? In no particular order: 1) A few less theaters. I'm not entirely sure on that last one, as you can tell by my question mark. But it's my working theory as of this moment. Regardless, I look for Dragon to do dynamite box-office, well deserved. Prediction: $54.74 million | |
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It's not quite to the level of The Hangover, but it's good enough for a Friday night. I've placed it at $9k per theater, lofty, I know. Something about this weekend feels bullish to me.
Prediction: $24.78 million
It's bleeding 350 theaters or so, many of the lucrative 3-D variety. Plus it's facing genre heat from How to Train Your Dragon. All of that adds up to a 52 percent dip.
Prediction: $16.09 million
Oddly enough, it's gaining five theaters in this maelstrom, but it faces the same demo dilemma as Alice in Wonderland. Only with way less marketing might.
Prediction: $12.19 million
Ideally, this will fall the most on the board. Don't fail me on this one, let's all work together to smite bad movies.
Prediction: $9.93 million
Yep, you could make a pretty strong case that the top five are locked in. Luckily League was only sporting a $20m production budget.
Prediction: $3.77 million
It's cracked $200m in worldwide cume. Fun with math: it opened higher than The Departed but trailed off more quickly… probably thanks to the whole "Academy Award Contender" aspect.
Prediction: $3.17 million
8. Repo Men
A commenter claimed this was just a bad movie, thus the box-office failure. Not a bad theory, that. I'll look into it.
Prediction: $2.75 million
10. Avatar
Avatar is losing 300 more theaters this weekend, dropping it down to 900, but it will make one more proud stand. Fifteen weekends in a row in the top ten, pour out some sort of recreational beverage on its behalf.
Prediction: $2.27 million
How say you? Am I too high/low on How to Train Your Dragon? Am I giving a fair shake to Hot Tub Time Machine? The floor is yours, bring it on.
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1.How to Train Your Dragon-$48.9 (N/A)
2.Alice in Wonderland-$20.2 (-41%)
3.Hot Tub Time Machine-$15.4 (N/A)
4.Diary of a Wimpy Kid-$10.9* (-50%)
5.The Bounty Hunter-$7.1 (-66%)
6.She's Out of My League-$4.2 (-30%)
7.Green Zone-$3.9 (-34%)
8.Repo Men-$3.2 (-48%)
9.Shutter Island-$3 (-36%)
10.Avatar-$2.9 (-28%)
Wow, M1 did really good. Laremy….not so good this week.
M1 did wonderfully this week, on all three of the top movies
How to Train your Dragon – $61.3 – would give it more but alot of fathers who would take their kids are at home watching March Madness.
Alice in Wonderland – $22.3
Hot Tub Time Machine – $21.7
I'm back!
Alrighty, let's see here…
1. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON – $70.4 million
2. HOT TUB TIME MACHINE – $30.9 million
3. ALICE IN WONDERLAND – $15.7 million
4. DIARY OF A WIMPY KID – $13.1 million
5. BOUNTY HUNTER – $10.0 million
I really feel like I must see DIARY OF A WIMPY KID… I was the only one who nailed its 1st weekend numbers on the head but never got any credit for it (maybe 'cause I predicted it on the Sunday before? should still count though…). So hopefully I can catch that one. Anyone seen it? Is it any good?
I'll try to see HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON this weekend in 3-D, because I'm hearing (surprisingly) that it's phenomenal?? Wow. Guess all the DreamWorks movies that look bland in the previews (Kung Fu Panda, Over the Hedge, etc.) are the ones that turn out to be extremely good and surprise hits.
Hmm, so i might be doing a double-feature kid-movie-only this weekend? I'm 20 too… hope I'm not picked on for this. haha.
Have a really fun, relaxing weekend everyone!
=)
If HTTYD opens low, I'm guessing it will drop 20-40% next weekend. Great movie. Fares better than 5 Pixar Movies, (long way to go)
1. How to Train………… 41.8
2. Alice in Wonder……… 15.5
3. Diary Wimpy Kids…….. 14.2
4. Hot Tub Time Mach……. 11.3
5. Bounty Hunter……….. 9.9
6. Shutter Island………. 2.8
7. She's Outta League…… 2.8
8. Green Zone………….. 2.5
9. Repo Men……………. 2.4
10. Avatar…………….. 2.3
11. Our Family W……….. 1.4
12. Remember Me………… 1.3
HOT TUB TIME MACHINE -16.2MILLION
or it can bomb and be in the 8 million range
1. How to Train Your Dragon, $52.7 million. I originally thought this could go much, much higher, but then Vince (Not Vance) pointed out that straight action/adventure animation rarely does well, and this is being sold as action/adventure, not really as comedy. I still think it will do fine (I've pegged it at $13,000 PTA), but it won't put up astronomical numbers. The great reviews (95% on RT right now) could propel it higher, or it could go $10 million or more lower.
2. Hot Tub Time Machine, $24.8 million. I'm also going with $9,000 PTA on this one. It's been heavily marketed, it's getting generally good reviews, and people seem excited for it. I can't bring myself to push the PTA to five figures though. I'll see this this weekend over Dragon, because it does look quite funny and Dragon, despite the fantastic reviews, just doesn't interest me.
3. Alice in Wonderland, $17 million. I'm dinging it a dead even 50%. It'll lost most of its 3D screens, and Dragon is in its demo. It's had a most impressive three week run, but I expect it may fade rather quickly from here on out.
4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid, $12 million. I'm dropping this one just under 50%. Apparently the books are a big deal for kids…I still think it looks cringingly awful.
5. The Bounty Hunter, $9.2 million. This should fall greater than 50%, but it won't be the biggest percentage fall of the weekend. That will belong to Repo Man.
6. Shutter Island, $3.3 million. I keep forecasting smaller drops for this one, but it seems to fall 40% every week. I'm giving it 30% this week; if I'm wrong again I'll listen to the numbers.
7. Green Zone, $3 million. It fell around 60% last week I believe; I'm dropping it another 50%. Once upon a time, this had a November release date as a potential Oscar contender. Yeah.
8. She's Out of My League, $2.9 million. This had the best hold of the March 12th films, but Hot Tub should wipe out any little bit of momentum this one might have carried for a few more weeks.
9. Avatar, $2.7 million. Last week in the top 10. Though with the way its been going, it'll somehow stay in next week.
10. Repo Men, $2 million. I'm giving this one a 67% fall. I thought it could combine a bit of the thriller and a bit of the horror audience last weekend. In fact, it had no audience whatsoever. I wouldn't be surprised if this goes one and done and Our Family Wedding grabs this spot.
is Greenberg limited release?
Yes. It opened in NY/LA last week, expanding to 181 theaters this week.
By the way, is that a typo at boxofficemojo or is HTTYD really at 4055 theaters? And is there any resource for actual screen counts? Some movies at 3k theaters have 4k screens, while others have 7k screens (when it's on 4 or 5 screens at the plex).
It's not a typo. The number of theaters is real.
1. How to Train………… 24.8
2. Alice in Wonder……… 13.5
3. Diary Wimpy Kids…….. 12.2
4. Bounty Hunter……….. 9.9
5. Hot Tub Time Mach……. 7.6
6. Shutter Island………. 3.3
7. She's Outta My League…… 2.8
8. Green Zone………….. 2.65
9. Repo Men……………. 2.6
10. Avatar…………….. 2.0
I'm going slightly higher with Dragon – $63.2m.
Also, it is quite a sad sight to see three of the top 10 being 3d movies…I hope it's a fad but i'm having doubts.
1. How to Train Your Dragon–$50.3mil. Audience poll comparisons to "Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs" and "Monsters vs. Aliens" both put this right around $50mil.
2. Hot Tub Time Machine–$22.0mil. I may be a bit bullish; it may do $16-18mil ("I Love You, Man" did $17mil) and then hold well.
3. Alice in Wonderland (2010)–$19.6mil. -52% is a bit too bearish, but I do think -45% is about right. Its bleed seems really steady.
4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid–$12.2mil. Were it not for "How to Train," this flick could probably drop only -35%. But because of the genre competition, I predict an extra -10%.
5. The Bounty Hunter–$10.5mil. -50%. Romantic comedy drop, no matter how bad the movie is (don't look at "Valentine's Day" for comparison, because that opened on a weekend with an inordinately large Sunday, and its title played into that very day to boot, so it was going to drop a ton even if it had been good).
6. She's Out of My League–$3.2mil. Last weekend it held pretty well, but with "Hot Tub Time Machine," it'll be lucky to stay in the top 10 another weekend after this.
7. Shutter Island–$3.1mil. No opening competition (or competition in general, considering awards season is over, "The Crazies" is down to 800 theaters, and "Chloe" is only opening in 300 theaters and apparently sucks).
8. Green Zone–$2.9mil. It won't level off; it'll keep dropping. And dropping.
9. Avatar–$2.8mil. -30% again? Along comes "How to Train" to steal a few hundred more theaters. It's now down to 900. And what a shame, considering last weekend it made $3258 per theater.
10. Repo Men–$2.5mil. In an ideal world, THIS is the title that'll drop the most, not "Bounty Hunter." At least "Bounty Hunter," as bad as it is, isn't a direct plagiarism. Thankfully, I do foresee a large drop in this movie's future. -60%, at least.
Monsters vs. Aliens opened big last year because it practically had no counterprograming problems. Haunting in Conneticut had a limited audiance.
On the contary How to Train Your Dragon has competition from rival family movies (Whimpy and Alice), rowdy comedies (Hot Tub and She's Out of my Laugue)) and word of mouth sensations (Shutter Island).
How To Train Your Dragon – 74.8 Mil
Hot Tub Time Machine – 25.7 Mil
Alice In Wonderland 16.8 Mil
Diary of a Wimpy Kid – 9.1 Mil
The Bounty Hunter – 8.0 Mil
How To Train Your Dragon looks like a very professional effort that is hitting all it's marks. $62 million.
@Laremy, I've read Dragon succeeded in getting just over 2,000 3D theaters including IMAX. That's just a little under Alice, so it's definitely enough. Also, isn't there a new extra charge for 3D? I once read an interesting article about how Will Smith decided on Independance Day. Apparantly, there was a list made of what films were most successful. I remember "creatures" were on the list. The trailers for Dragon, wisely, also showed a girl getting involved. I agree with the studio's bullishness. Someone who predicted higher than me will probably be closest, but I chose to be more conservative.
Sorry, the list was what elements were in the most successful films. Last year, at least six of the top ten films featured creatures. Seven, if you count Vulcans.
I got a feeling How to Train your Dragon would cross $ 80 million and Hot Tub Time Machine should make around $ 32 million
how to train 70 mil