Box-Office Oracle: Jun. 5 – Jun. 7, 2009
COMMENTS
It's Up on top again. Probably.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week in a Row
1. Up
I don't like the look of things this week at all. Too many weird things to predict. Why are two comedies opening against each other? I know one is R, and the other PG-13, but still. So I'm taking Up to drop 44.5% and take first. It's proving to be about eight percent stronger than WALL-E so far.
Estimate: $37.8 million
I think it's oddly positioned. If it was a family film it would have a real shot, but that PG-13 is going to scare a few people off. So I'm putting it at $10k per theater.
Estimate: $34.0 million
3. The Hangover
I also think Hangover is building momentum… while Land of the Lost is losing it. Right now Hangover has an 80% RT score. Land of the Lost sits at a much less healthy 13%. You see?
Estimate: $28.2 million
This one isn't going to sniff the $574m the original did. It's already in a death spiral.
Estimate: $12.8 million
Actually, this might not get to the $433m T3 did either. That would be a hell of an upset.
Estimate: $7.6 million
I'm still of the notion that Drag Me Down would have done way better as a title. It's the Porno (Zac and Miri) / Hell rule. Titles matter.
Estimate: $7.1 million
7. Star Trek
$313m worldwide cume, but still a lot of international dollars still coming in.
Estimate: $6.1 million
We theoretically have three lesser sequels on the board, Night at the Museum II, Terminator Salvation and this one. Does this mean we'll get some new ideas out of Hollywood soon? No, of course not, don't be absurd.
Estimate: $5.8 million
It's getting murdered on the early reviews. It's also only in 1,100 theaters. That means very bad financial news for My Life in Ruins.
Estimate: $3.0 million
So where did I go wrong? Does anyone have the stones to pick something else at the top? Are my dollars all off? You know the stakes. Pride, and the thanks of a grateful website. Maybe I'll come up with a trophy. See you Sunday.
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I think everyone has had it with Will Ferrell. He has had, what, like four bombs in a row?
I think The Hangover might crack $30 million while LotL will open with $27 million. Everything else is on track.
I don't think The Hangover has a shot of cracking $30 million. R-rated comedies usually only open to around $6000-7000 per theater, no matter how hyped. I Love You, Man, Pineapple Express, Role Models… even What Happens In Vegas only opened up to $6,200 per theater. The Hangover can't expect to do much better. Land of the Lost is doomed to be one of those movies that was marketed incorrectly, confusing audiences, and fall by the wayside as bigger summer flicks come out. I think that in the very near future we are going to be seeing lots of commercials boasting that Up is the #1 movie in America for two weeks in a row.
1. Up- $38.2 million
2. Land of The Lost- $26.1 million
3. The Hangover- $23.5 million
As for everything else? Word of mouth will spread about Museum's mediocrity, as will word that Drag Me To Hell kicks ass; Terminator Salvation will continue its journey to become the summer's first flop; and I have not seen a single trailer for My Life In Ruins, so I don't know what the hell that movie is doing in wide release.
4. Night At The Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian- $12.9 million
5. Drag Me To Hell- $10.0 million
6. Terminator Salvation- $7.6 million
7. Star Trek- $6.8 million
8. Angels & Demons- $6.1 million
9. My Life In Ruins- $2.7 million
10. Dance Flick- $1.8
I saw UP last weekend, but I'll be seeing it once more Sunday with friends (which is what many people will probably/hopefully be doing this weekend) because of how truly gorgeous it is, and on Friday, I'll be going in double-feature mode and see "The Hangover" and "Land of the Lost" back to back.
WEEKEND PREDICTIONS
1. UP – $38.8 million
This was a glorious, wonderful movie. The word has spread and it is through-the-roof positive. There have been reports though, that some kids are getting very, very bored with the first half of the movie and fussle about and whine and such.. so maybe a lot of parents will instead choose "Land of the Lost" or "Night at the Museum" so that they won't have to deal with a bored, fidgety child? Both of which probably have way more visual colorfulness and action and craziness to entertain and keep the attention of the tots.
2. LAND OF THE LOST – $35.6 million
I think too many people are overreacting about the PG-13 rating slapped on this one. A lot of American parents are either stupid and don't pay attention to ratings (or the reason), or maybe they just assume it'll be the rating these kind of movies usually are without checking, or they just don't care what their little kid sees. You're right – SOME will be freaked out by the rating and perhaps choose UP and MUSEUM instead, but the majority will go ahead and buy 6 tickets for the fam. I was with my friend's 5 year-old kid yesterday and he was singing the "Land of the Lost" theme song and was impersonating the Sleestaks and how slow they move.. it's right up their alley. The theaters will be flooded with families and curious teenagers/young adults (or teenagers that bought a LOST ticket to sneak into HANGOVER). I know I'll be there. Looks like fun.
3. THE HANGOVER – $27.6 million
About $8 million below rests this apparently highly-anticipated flick. I'm not gonna lie, it looks like a really funny adventure. And I showed the (green band) trailer to my mother and she was cracking up loud (then again, she loves The Office, so maybe it wasn't completely unexpected). This is the top choice for the college students fresh off of school, and the curious older audience, that is paying attention to the very, very positive word of mouth on this one. It'll be a hit, guaranteed.
I'll be seeing all three this weekend. Great movie weekend if you ask me. LAND OF THE LOST = summer movie fun, UP = beautiful, lovely, heartbreaking adventure, THE HANGOVER = tons and tons of laughs. Isn't this what every body wants in their summer movies?? It's summer! Everyone lighten up! Don't pay attention to reviews, go out and catch a flick based on your thoughts and your thoughts only on it.
Have a FUN weekend everyone!
=]
As always, you provide some interesting opinions, and as always I will throw in my own two cents.
Up will have a very strong second weekend. Weekdays have been great (all above $6M), nothing should provide direct competition, and people simply love the movie. It will hold around $40M, give or take a million.
The Hangover has massive breakout potential, but it really depends on how much of that is just from the internet, or if the fantastic trailer reactions and even better reviews would make up for that. I've got it just under $26M, so while not HUGE, it is still a great start.
Land of the Lost is not going to open at $34M. I would bet a kidney on that. I'm going with $24.4M, because, simply enough, there is just no anticipation for it. Ferrell will bring in some of his fanbase, but not much. The demographic appeal is just so small, and reviews are more than awful.
NATM will hold well after basically crashing last weekend, to the $14M-$15M range, but at this point not even a $175M total looks likely. Rounding out the top five will be a fight between Terminator's third weekend and Star Trek's fifth. My pick is Termy, but I would love ST to continue its march towards $240M-$250M.
UP-39.2M
Land of the Lost-30.6m
Hangover-28.4m
Night at the Museum-13.8m
Drag Me to Hell-8.3m
Terminator-7.7m
Star Trek-7.5m
Angles and Demons-6.1m
My Life in Ruins-2.9m
Dance Flick-2.4m
Holy sh*t, Drag Me To Hell dropped 11% on Wednesday. Forget $10 million; $7.6 million with a 53% drop. New predics:
1. Up- $38.2 million
2. Land of The Lost- $26.1 million
3. The Hangover- $23.5 million
4. Night At The Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian- $12.9 million
5. Terminator Salvation- $7.6 million
6. Drag Me To Hell- $7.4 million
7. Star Trek- $6.8 million
8. Angels & Demons- $6.1 million
9. My Life In Ruins- $2.7 million
10. Dance Flick- $1.8
No.1 is not a difficult call this week, beyond that is where it all gets tricky
1. UP=39.2mil
Excellent reviews and word of mouth from critics, fanboys, and casual moviegoers. Also, it was still the no.1 ticket seller this week according to Fandango. Smooth sailing ahead.
2.The Hangover= 27mil
Yes, it will open this high. It's actually the no.2 seller this week through Fandango. It has excellent buzz and the over 18 college crowd who's out for the summer will flock here. Only thing keeping this from reaching the low 30's like other R-Rated comedies-Wedding Crashers, Knocked Up-is the lack of a renowned star that by name alone will sell some tickets (Vince Vaughn, Owen Wilson, Katherine Heigl)
3.Land of the Lost=25.3mil
The movie barely registered this week in the Fandango top 5 sellers. Trailers were greeted by a collective "meh" from theater crowds over the past month or so whenever I was on hand.
4.Night At the Museum 2=13.5mil
It starts losing theaters this week, yet will continue to add some more to total. Though Fox won't openly admit it, they are rather bummed with it's take so far. If there is a 3rd movie-heaven forbid-release it in the fall/winter (Same goes for the next Narnia which they now have rights to).
5.Terminator Salvation=7.8mil
I wonder what James Cameron thought of this installment.
6.Drag me to Hell=7.5mil
I would've had this at 5, but it won't hold well because of The Hangover siphoning moviegoers that would've gone here.
7.Star Trek=4.6mil
8.Angels and Demons=3.9mil
9.My Life in Ruins=3mil
10.Dance Flick=1.7mil
@junjun: So you think ST is going to drop 65% and Angels and Demons 66%?
LOL.
@Gophers Attack!: I could live being way off those two. It's being as close to predicting the top 5 that interests me more
I totally agree with your predictions, Laremy. Your comments were funny too! But to be honest, there are gonna be quite a few slow weekends this month, but 'Transformers 2' should soar sky-high when it comes out at the end of this month, because of all of the publicity, promotion, and good hype it has. Good job Laremy, you nailed it once again!
In my opinion, next weekend will be somewhere in between slow and iffy. 'Imagine That' will most likely be a flop because of Eddie Murphy's practically-ruined reputation and because of the stupid story. So i'm thinking it will come in somewhere in the top 5 and it will have similair results to 'Hotel for Dogs' becuase they both are 'Nickolodeon' movies that most likely look too silly for most audiences.
'The Taking of Pelham 123' will not be a total box office success but it might draw in some people just because it's an action thriller, but i don't see it being in number one, maybe at no. 2 or no. 3? What do you think about next weekend, Laremy?
1.UP=41.2mil
2.The Hangover=28.8mil
3.Land of the Lost=25.5mil
4.NatM2=13.4mil
5.Terminator S=8.7mil
6.Drag me to Hell-7.8mil
7.Star Trek=6.5mil
8.Angels and Demons=5mil
9.My life in ruins=3.7mil
10.Dance Flick=1.8mil
Up will be no.1, that's pretty much ascertained. Like what an earlier poster stated, it is still tops in online sales by a good margin and the excellent word of mouth is raging. The Hangover will be no.2 and if it breaks right, it could hit 30mil. Land of the Lost is doing poorly with online sales and even audience tracking. Night at the Museum 2 will enjoy it's last week earning double-digit millions. No.5 is really a toss up imho, I could go either way between T:S and DmtH.
1.UP: 40.7mil
2.The Hangover: 31mil
3.Land of the Lost: 28.7mil
4.Night at the Museum 2: 13.2mil
5.Terminator Salvation: 7.8mil
6.Drag me to Hell: 7.4mil
Don't really care for the rest. Going to see UP for a 2nd time this Fri, then seeing The Hangover on Sat. That's the extent of my moviegoing this weekend.
Okay I'm starting to think people are overestimating THE HANGOVER. Don't get me wrong, I wanna see it too.. but something tells me it might have the possibility of disappointing all these high predictions you guys are giving it and make only $20 million or maybe even less. Just because you like it doesn't mean everyone else does, and although I definitely think it can pull off the number I gave it without breaking a sweat, but it's around this point (people slapping $30+ million weekends on it) with these types of movies that it turns out it's just being way overhyped. We'll see though.
Anyway, I forgot to give my early predictions on next weekend. This time, it REALLY depends on what's gonna go up and what's gonna go down this weekend (unlike the last few weeks, where everything was basically a guarantee), but I'll give it a go anyway.
EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 12-14
1. UP – $24.6 million
2. TAKING OF PELHAM 1 2 3 – $21.4 million
3. THE HANGOVER – $17.2 million
4. LAND OF THE LOST – $16.5 million
5. IMAGINE THAT – $14.1 million
Anyone agree? PELHAM 1 2 3 doesn't look very original or intriguing at all (to wop down 11 bucks for that is… maybe a Saturday matinee) to be a breakout, and IMAGINE THAT doesn't look nearly as bad as Murphy's last two movies in that it'll bomb horribly. It should do quite decent, in fact. It won't die. Hangover will hop over Land of the Lost, thanks to the strong word of mouth, while UP will stay on top for a third weekend. Land of the Lost (and Imagine That) will both disappear from the top 5 come June 19, when Year One and The Proposal come along. Very early predictions for those – THE PROPOSAL: $27 million. YEAR ONE = $38 million.
:]
Up – 37.6
Land of the Lost – 28.7
The Hangover – 26.1
@Chuck Bartowski:
I like how we're already focusing on Next week's releases.
Just a quickie; I'm feeling "The Hangover" because it's getting the same hype that other R-rated summer hits got, such as the twofer of "Knocked Up " and "Superbad" (remember, those movies had no stars in them either), and even "American Pie" back some 10 years ago (wow, I'm getting old). I won't be surprised if it breaks $30 million, but somewhere hovering around $27 million sounds about right.
"Land of the Lost" will be, at best, the "Evan Almighty" of the summer- it'll do alright, but considering the budget, it won't be a success. I'm calling for (and I have been ever since I heard of the movie long long ago) a "Speed Racer" like crash here (no pun intended)- it's too all-over the place, marketing wise, and plus it really doesn't look funny. Audiences have been pretty picky with their comedies as of late (sans-"Paul Blart"- although I enjoyed that film)- stuff like "Pink Panther 2' or even "Semi-Pro" from last year looked fairly awful, and people strayed away. This movie has a bit more family-friendly appeal (a lot of kids are excited to see it because it has "dinosaurs" and "lizards" and all that stuff) and Will Ferrell has a solid fanbase that'll at least turn out (in a small number) to see it, but it'll crash after that. I don't truly think it'll make anymore than $60-70 million total. But I've been wrong before…
Ok fine, I'll do a bit for next week too: "Imagine That" is a girl-centric family-comedy that'll do decently well, I feel- it'll open below "Hotel for Dogs" at around $13 million but decent word-of-mouth can make this a modest hit (unless this thing has a budget of over $50-60 million, then they're screwed). "Pelham" does not fit in at all w/ summer releases- this at best looks like something that should be released the weekend after Labor Day. But Denzel has consistently made bank w/ these type of thrillers, so it'll open at around $22 million. "Up" has a chance to three-peat, but just barely. Unless it completely crashes this weekend, by next weekend it could make a cool $27 million to win.
I'm goin with Up leading with 38 million, Land of the Lost (just because its PG-13 Ferrel) at 30 million, Hangover at 27 million, Night at the Museum at 12 million, Drag Me to Hell at 10 million, and Terminator at 8 million.
1.UP=40mil
Word of mouth is through the roof from critics and non-critics alike. It had superb holds throughout the mid-week. Like what was already said, still tops at online sales (near 50%). Added a few more theaters to it's total count, and, it has all 3D screens to itself for the next month.
2.Land of the Lost=32.5mil.
I'm really torn here because imho, it will be in a dogfight with The Hangover. I could easily see a mass exodus of the high-teens crowd, and flock with the college folk to the Hangover.
3.The Hangover=29.5mil.
In the long run, this will make more than Land of the Lost imho. Look for this one to be higher than Land of the Lost next week (though is anybody really gonna suprised if it opens higher than it this week?).
4.Night at the Museum 2=14mil
This is an example of the word "Franchise" being thrown around leniently nowadays. "Oh wow, the original did 275mil, greenlight the sequel, we have a franchise here!" I believe that it takes 2 successful installments before you can even consider labeling one a franchise. This opened on a 4-day holiday weekend and it's total for the first 4 days is less than UP, and Up is on track to surpass it's overall take on Sun.
5. Terminator Salvation=8.1mil
Again, I'm on the fence here too. But I'll go with Terminator. I think it will just edge out Drag me to Hell which will make around 7.5mil.
up-$37.5m
land of the lost-$17m-terrible reviews,will ferrell not a huge draw will be similar to journey to the centre of the earth's $21m opening
hangover-r rated, no big names-$14m-similar to Old School's $17m opening
also, why would people be scared of the 'hell' in the title? its a goddamn horror film, if anything its a bigger draw!!!!!!!!
its not like people are going
'ooooh lets go and see a horror film this weekend'
'hang on, it says hell in the title'
'looks we'll have to skip that one, looks too scary'
Up with just over $40 mil.
The Hangover in second place with $29 mil+ (hell, I could see $34). If I overshot that, I'd bet even more that it'll have crazy low drops and great longevity, come second weekend against Pelham.
LotL with $27.5 mil.
@Matthew Wilson: I think Pelham wins next weekend, fairly easily, as an actioner facing off against little competition. It looks like a 75% of Hulk audience to me, so $35-$40m.
@benji: It's not that overt. It hurts much more with teens (who might get denied from parentals) and on the fence adults. No, it wouldn't affect hardcore horror fans, but there aren't enough of them for box office riches. You have to get some crossover audiences, and a film called "Drag Me To Hell" is a much tougher sell for something like date night.
Very interesting weekend, my local AMC 30 has Up, Hangover, and LotL at the same amount of screenings.
FYI "Movie Mom" has LofL as "suitable for high school".
1. Up: 44mil
2. The Hangover: 37mil
3. Land of the Lost: 24.5mil
4. Night at the Museum 2: 13.3mil
5.Drag me to Hell: 8.1mil
1. Up: 40 mill
2. Land of the Lost: 30 mill
3. The Hangover: 23 mill
4. Night at the Museum 2: 12 mill
5. Terminator 4: 8.5 mill
6. Star Trek: 7.5 mill
7. Drag Me to Hell: 7
8 Angels and Demons: 6.5 mill
9. My Life in Ruins: 5 mill
10 Dance Flick: 2 mill
I've been on study leave and have had nothing to do so I vaguely estimated these with probably the most random guesswork ever, particularly with 5-8 but it killed time.
Okay, thankfully before Friday estimates come in, I'm gonna bump up my prediction for "The Hangover" (hope that's fair? estimates aren't in yet). I saw it at an Edwards 26 last night… all showings were sold out and I barely got into the 10:50 showing (original plan? 9:00 showing). The line for 10:50 went from inside of the building (at the front of an auditorium) to outside of the theater, far down alongside the side of the entire theater. "The Dark Knight" had a smaller line than that. I'm bumping it up to $34.5 million opening weekend, but I will not be surprised if it surprises with $40 million and takes the #1 spot. Also.. Land of the Lost is gonna plummet like no other.
So… UPDATED PREDICTIONS
1. UP – $38.8 million
2. THE HANGOVER – $34.5 million
3. LAND OF THE LOST – $34.2 million
:]
You know what? Something tells me to push it up to $40 million. So here I go.
1. THE HANGOVER – $43.5 million
2. UP – $38.8 million
3. LAND OF THE LOST – $34.2 million
Because really… I haven't seen a line like that in a long time.