Box-Office Oracle: Jun. 25 – Jun. 27, 2010
Toy Story 3 repeats with ease... but what becomes of Tom Cruise and Adam Sandler?
Right now Toy Story 3 is running wild all over the competition. It'll crack $200m in worldwide cume today, and it should jump into 6th place all-time for Pixar on the domestic charts this weekend, passing Wall-E. Speaking of this weekend … let's break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
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| It's taken Pixar 15 years to build this battleship, and now they are fully cashing in on the market's respect for their product. Yeah, the 18 percent premium on 3-D tickets helped, but so does the lack of bleed inherent in Pixar's films. Here's the 2nd weekend trend: Toy Story (1995): 30.8 percent drop
A Bug's Life (1998): 48.4 percent
Toy Story 2 (1999): 51.6 percent
Monsters, Inc. (2001): 27.2 percent
Finding Nemo (2003): 33.7 percent
The Incredibles (2004): 28.7 percent
Cars (2006): 43.9 percent
Ratatouille (2007): 38.3 percent
WALL-E (2008): 48.5 percent
Up (2009): 35.2 percent Essentially, we're in the second golden age of Pixar (2001 – 2004 was the first). Based on this chart, I've gone with a 35 percent dip for Toy Story 3, even with its massive opening. Prediction: $71.7 million |
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But it's not great news for everyone else. Audiences have been punishing all the average work being foisted upon them. Knight and Day opened below $4m on Wednesday, but I don't put too much stock in that number. It will do $8,500 per theater based on the Cruise / Diaz factor.
Prediction: $26.33 million
Here's the film that has no bottom. It's getting savaged by critics, which wouldn't matter if it were Transformers. It's not. Only three million people are still into Kevin James hitting a tree at full speed.
Prediction: $24 million
A shining example of how to do business this summer. Keep the budget low, take some government subsidies (from China), and crush it with the families. Well played, Sony.
Prediction: $17.54 million
It's on a pretty established trendline at this point, so I should be dialed in here.
Prediction: $8.1 million
I'm listening to this soundtrack now. It's nice.
Prediction: $3.67 million
My bottom four films are within $.6m of each other and you know what that means … dartboard central!
Prediction: $3.05 million
Here's the outline for how not to do business. A massively bloated production budget, no real script, and released into the teeth of demographic competition. The international dollars helped, but the U.S. sunk it.
Prediction: $2.57 million
Brad
was right on with this one, it was simply a case of poor execution. Make a bad movie, get smacked at the box office. Feels like justice.
Prediction: $2.53 million
Unfortunately this will be off the board when the final verdict comes in, as international dollars will make or break this little DreamWorks title.
Prediction: $2.41 million
That's my take at least, a top twelve near $167m, quite a drop from last weekend. How say you? I could see real movement out of the new releases, these opening weekend numbers are getting downright tricky. Comment away!
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1.) Toy Story 3 – $ 67.5 mil
2.) Knight & Day – $ 43.4 mil
3.) Grown Ups – $ 34.6 mil
4.) The Karate Kid – $ 19.8 mil
5.) The A-Team – $ 7.6 mil
6.) Get Him To The Greek – $ 6.2 mil
7.) Prince Of Persia:Sands of Time – $ 4.2 mil
8.) Killers – $ 3.2 mil
9.) Shrek Forever After – $ 2.8 mil
10.) Jonah Hex – $ 2.4 mil
I probably wouldn't dismiss a critically savaged Adam Sandler film making a fortune.
I'd agree with the drop of TS3, but maybe even push it to about 40% drop. At any rate, I reckon $60 million plus is a very safe bet.
I'll say around $66 million.
I think Grown Ups will be second with a better than $30 million gross. Maybe $32.5 million.
Knight and Day is maybe hardest to predict if that Wednesday doesn't prove just a blip. I'm going to err on the side of caution and say $25 million.
None of the rest will matter really.
Honestly, as much as they've never been my thing, I can easily see the latest Sandler film hitting the $40 or even $50m mark with that combination of stars. In this summer, however, I really can't figure out what's going to hit and what will be completely ignored. I just know I've heard positive reaction to the trailer from various people, so I'd go high on it, and guess it'll take second place.
1: Toy Story 3– $63m
2: Grown Ups– $47m
3: Knight and Day–$22m
4: The Karate Kid– $16m
5: The A Team– $9m
1. Toy Story 3 – 62.3 Million
2. Grown Ups – 37.8 Million
3. Knight and Day – 21.5 Million
4. The Karate Kid – 12.4 Million
5. The A-Team -8.4 Million
6. Get Him to the Greek – 5.6 Million
7. Prince of Persia – 3.2 Million
8. Killers – 1.3 Million
9. Shrek 4 – 1.2 Million
10. Jonah Hex – .7 Million
Laremy, I think you might have fat fingered that "Get Him to the Greek Number", you have it rising week over week.
Also, you can't ignore 3.8M on Wednesday for K&D, that's a bad number, and it will translate to a low weekend.
Toy Story 3 $71.00
Grown Ups $23.50
The Karate Kid $17.20
Knight & Day $11.50
The A-Team $7.70
Get Him to the Greek $3.70
Prince of Persia $3.00
Shrek Forever After $2.70
Killers $2.70
Jonah Hex $2.30
Blerg, you are correct. I had last weekend's per theater wrong which horked the formula. The actual number is $3.6m.
Sometimes a movie could be big due to lack of British competition. Toy Story 3 hasn't had to face competition from StreetDance 3D yet.
Stupid Americans are choosing animated toys that come to life over British streetdance acts.
Another case in point: Ice Age: The Meltdown
When it came out in 2006 it was huge, but only because British film Alien Autopsy (which starred Geordie double act Ant & Dec) was an exclusive to Britain at the time, and when Alien Autopsy opened in the States, it was ignored because nobody in America knew who Ant & Dec were (even to this day a lot of Americans still don't know who Ant & Dec are).
Stupid Americans chose animated prehistoric animals over Ant & Dec.
Dont call stupids,, I could agree with you in 2006 case with that crap of ice age 2, but leave toy story 3 in peace, this toys are legend everywhere, and now I just wonder to know how much money it will get from Englandm I bet you it will make millions,, even more than streetdance 3D
To many americans Ant & Dec are unknowns. In Britain they are a national treasure.
In Britain, Toy Story 3 is in a more competitive market crowded with Get Him to the Greek, Knight and Day, Marmaduke, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Shrek Forever After, The Scorcerer's Apprentice, Inception and The Last Airbender.
what about using Avatar as a case in point?
One of the main reasons Avatar was huge in the States was it didn't face competition from St Trinians 2: The Legend of Fritton's Gold, was ignored by Americans when it was released.
Stupid Americans chose 9 foot smurfs led by Zoe Saldana over sassy sixth form schoolgirls led by Talulah Reily, Gemma Areterton and Sarah Harding.
Streetdance is crap you moron.
A bunch of ugly granny-mugging chavs comin' at me in 3D? Stiggy Fail.
1. TS3- $68.8 million
2. Grown Ups- $36.3 million
3. Knight and Day- $25.7 million
4. The Karate Kid- $18.6 million
5. The A-Team- $8.1 million
Grown-ups is gonna be huge. Wouldnt be surprised to see it make close to $60 million and possible beat Toy Story 3. Middle America will go crazy for sandler and james getting hit in the testes repeatedly. Dont really care who wins. Both movies dont really interest me and look silly.
1.) Toy Story 3 – $ 57.5 mil
2.) Grown Ups – $ 51.6 mil
3.) Knight & Day – $ 23.4 mil
4.) The Karate Kid – $ 15.8 mil
5.) The A-Team – $ 7.1 mil
6.) Get Him To The Greek – $ 4.9 mil
7.) Prince Of Persia:Sands of Time – $ 4.0 mil
8.) Killers – $ 3.0 mil
9.) Shrek Forever After – $ 2.9 mil
10.) Jonah Hex – $ 1.9 mil
adam sandler making more than 50m??, you mean this movie could reach more than 200m just in America, Grown Ups is not absolutely the hangover of 2010,,,hoping TS3 surpasses all estimations and make more than 70m,,,this is the only one movie that deserves every penny,,
1. Toy Story 3-$68 million
2. Grown-ups-$35.7 million
3. Knight and Day-$22.5 million
4. Karate Kid-$19.1 million
5. The A Team-$7.5 million
6. Get Him to the Greek-$6.2 million
7. Prince of Persia-$3 million
8. Killers-$2.5 million
9. Shrek 4-$2.2 million
10. Jonah Hex-$1.3 million
1. Toy Story 3- $70.7 million
2. Grown Ups- $26.2 million
3. Karate Kid- $19.3 million
4. Knight and Day- $17.5 million
5. The A-Team- $7.9 million
1. Grown Ups- 69 m.- Looks like a good family comedy. Never doubt these five comedians:
Adam Sandler=$$$$
Chris Rock=$$$
Kevin James=$$$$
David Spade=$$
Rob Schneider=$$
All of them=$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
2. Toy Story 3- 66 m.-With commercials running on Nickelodeon I think kids who have seen Toy Story will want to see Grown Ups. But it'll still make money.
3. Knight and Day- Not much family appeal here. Also looks like a stupid comedy with action. I think people will choose GU or TS3.
4. The Karate Kid= Will Smiths son=$$$$$
5. The A-Team- I think this deserves more than KK
6. Prince- Still think it has a chance.
7. Greek- What a stupid a*s movie.
8. Killers- Bleh
9. Jonah Hex- Who cares? Maybe people will buy the Directors Cut.
10. Shrek- Awesome Movie
1. TOY STORY- 74.3 mil
-People, People- this movie is making 15 mil-13 mil on weekdays, that means it is going to do unbeliveable this weekend. It may have a chance at snatching 2nd weekend record. Pixar films hold very well and this one is sure too also especially with the excellent WOM and sucess on the weekdays.
2. GROWN UPS- 36.5 mil
- I think the appeal is there. A lt of people dig these actors but I am not going as high since You Don't Mess With The Zohan didn't do too hot OW. So we will see if the other comedic actors will help this movie open bigger. Surely, 40 mil isn't out of reach.
3. KNIGHT & DAY- 25.4 mil
-This isnt a diaster yet. Sure it opened small wed. but that was because not many people knew it opened on wed. I think it will do fairly well this weekend but maybe not as good since Tom Cruise's carrer isn't great. But I think overseas this will make up for its loss. Personally I enjoued it and hopes it will do well this weekend. It may.
4. THE KARATE KID- 16.5 mil
5. THE A-TEAM- 7.4 mil
1. Toy Story 3, $66 million. This weekend should give us a better idea of where this will end up. I still say low $400s, which would still be a nearly 4X multiplier, which is nothing to sniff at. It was slightly frontloaded last weekend (biggest day was Friday, generally family films have their biggest day Saturday), so this weekend should tell us how frontloaded it was overall. Will people go back out and see it again or will it take a harder fall because so many people saw it last weekend. I'm going with a 40% drop, which is bigger than average for Pixar, but that has to be expected with that massive first weekend.
2. Grown Ups, $30 million. Sandler's movies almost always bank (except when he makes a good movie like Funny People, though I can't really blame people for not rushing out to a 2.5 hour death-themed comedy-drama), but I think this will be another victim of this summer's low box office dollars (Toy Story and The Karate Kid excepted). So I'm going lower than usual for a Sandler comedy.
3. Knight and Day, $25 million. I think I might even be high here. That Wednesday number isn't encouraging, though this doesn't strike me as a film people would rush out to see opening day. Maybe it'll rebound nicely and even beat Grown Ups. I'm betting against that though.
4. The Karate Kid, $16.4 million. I'm giving it a repeat of last weekend's drop and wouldn't be surprised if it fell a little more. I think people have moved on to Toy Story and don't care all that much about this one anymore. It will turn a very healthy profit though.
5. The A-Team, $7.2 million. I was pleasantly surprised by how well this held last weekend, but I feel like it has to take a big fall sometime. This is a 50% drop and I think it could go even lower.
6. Get Him to the Greek, $3.6 million.
7. Killers, $3 million.
8. Prince of Persia, $2.2 million. What the hell happened with this last weekend? It only fell 14%! I'm sending it back to a normal 50% drop.
9. Shrek Forever After, $2.2 million. Only 60% off this week after last weekend's 65% plunge. It'll still likely be the king of modern animated franchises in term of ticket sales for one film (the second one), but it's clearly past it's prime. Pixar and Toy Story are not.
10. Jonah Hex, $2.1 million. I'm only knocking it 60% because it opened so low.
I'll be seeing Toy Story again this weekend (in 2D of course) and looking forward to Inception, The Expendables and…Harry Potter at Thanksgiving. That's a sign of how bad this summer has been overall. Of course I may just see Toy Story four times and hopefully Inception will merit several theatrical viewings. So there won't necessarily be nothing to see, there just won't be any variety of good films.
I agree with Laremy that Grown Ups will have trouble breaking $30 million, though I think it will closer than he does. The saturation marketing is taking on an air of desperation. For instance, Adam Sandler is visiting a local Pop radio station in my city to do promotion. What the heck?
That was so crazy, I had to check it. Turns out Sandler was on Ryan Seacrest and my local Z100 just did a live simulcast. Still.
I may be getting mixed messages on GU, but I still think it can gross $35 – $40M. It may be a terrible movie, but that hasn't stopped Sandlers other terrible films from making money now have they ? Add in the fact that this will be the first big comedy of the summer and that literally promotion has been everywhere than $50M would also be in play, but I just don't see it doing that well since Sandlers appeal has waned some since 2008. Also Couples Retreat and Valentines Day also got ripped apart by critics, but still made a crap load money at the B.O. The same could go for this aswell.
1.Toy Story 3: 71.2mil. I won't be surprised though if it comes dangerously close-or even surpasses-Avatar's 2nd weekend record. I now see a sub 40% drop given how it performed during the midweek (15.6mil, 15.1 mil, and 13.6mil). This is word-of-mouth at work.
2.Grown-Ups: 27mil.
3.Knight and Day: 22mil. Tom Cruise has lost his cache with casual moviegoers.
Toy Story 3.- 77m
Grown Ups.- 28m
Knight & Day.- 22m
Karate Kid.- 16m
The A-Team.- 7m
1. Toy Story 3. $65.9M I am going with 38% decline (after deducting the $4 million midnight showings). When I first heard about this movie I was very worried about how it would play. Pixar amazes us once again!
2. Knight & Day. $23.5M Not sure that the Wednesday opening meant a lot. Many people were not aware of the shift in release date. Having said that, tracking is lousy bad for this movie. The PR people are desperate.
3. Grown Ups. $19M. Okay, I am probably way too low for this but I am letting my feelings rule on this guess. Personally I thought that the premise of the movie was very stale when I first saw the trailer. I have no interest in watching Adam Sandler rehasing old jokes even with an ensemble cast of big name stars. Maybe other people will feel the same … or maybe not. How many lead-ins will we see on Sunday riffing off the movie name if it under performs?
4. Karate Kid. $17.8M. Lots of people are telling me how they were pleasantly surprised by this one.
5. A-Team. $7.8M Tweens like all the explosions!
6. Greek. $3.6 M This may go lower if the target audience prefer Grown Ups.
7. Shrek. $3.4 M Took the big Toy Story 3 hit already so the declines should stabilize.
8. Prince of Persia. $3.2 M Anyone else besides me surprised at how well it held last weekend?
9. Jonah Hex. $2.3M Will soon follow MaGruder out of the theaters and straight into DVD-land. I can't hardly wait (ahem) for the DVD with the original Directors Cut so we can see what might have been.
10. Killers. $2.0 M Larger drop than previous weekends due to similarity with K&D.
Overall – many people are going to ignore this weekend as they set their sights (and their pocket money) on what they really want – emo-Vampires!
I thought, after the fact, that Prince Of Persia must have been the safe family choice for fathers day that wasn't animated. My own father doesn't really watch animated films.
Disney bean counters probably took some money from Toy Story 3 and threw it Persia's way to help it get respectable numbers. This is all I could think of since its hold last weekend made no sense given how it has freefalling weekend after weekend.
It could have been boosted by drive-in double features of itself and Toy Story 3.
1. Toy Story 3 – $70.2M
2. Grown Ups – $36.6M Should do a bit of a bounce from Funny People. Thanks mainly to Kevin James
3. Knight and Day – $19.4M That Wednesday number is only slightly better than Karate Kid's Wednesday number. I think the people just don't care for Tom Cruise and we've reached our maximum on action romantic comedies.
4. The Karate Kid – $17M
5. The A Team – $8.3M
1. Toy Story 3….. 64.6
2. Grown Ups…….. 24.0
3. Karate Kid……. 19.5
4. Knight & Day…. 18.9
5. A-Team………….. 8.8
6. Prince Persia.. 5.0
7. Get Greek……… 3.2
8. Jonah Hex……… 2.8
9. Killers…………. 2.6
10. Shrek 4………… 2.2
11. Iron Man 2…….. 1.4
12. Marmaduke……….. 0.6
I can't believe some of the really high predictions for Grown Ups. All tracking data and online traffic points to the high 20s at best. Heck, Toy Story 3 handily beats it and Knight and Day this week in advance tickets and online traffic be it Facebook, Flixster, and/or twitter.
1.Toy Story 3: 73.3mil. I'm going really high here. Like what was said on earlier posts, Avatar's 2nd weekend record could also be in jeopardy. This was a flat-out BEAST during the weekdays. The phenomenal near universal love and word-of-mouth will carry this well past 400mil Domestic alone.
2.Grown-Ups: 27.8mil. It will struggle to try and get to 100mil. They are trying to aim it as a "family" comedy through marketing, but the first choice by that demo will be Toy Story 3(repeat viewing perhaps?) and second might even be Karate Kid.
3.Karate Kid: 17.5mil. I'm calling an Upset here. Jaden Smith beats Tom Cruise.
4.Knight and Day: 17.2mil. I saw it and it was fun. However, Brad and Angelina did it better with Mr. and Mrs. Smith.
5.A-Team: 9.4mil
6.Get Him to the Greek: 6.7mil
7.Prince of Persia: 4.1mil. As one poster alluded to, last week's hold was rather fishy and Disney might have done some creative accounting here. No big deal, it's a common practice. Just look at Transformers 2 last year, which miraculously did a 200mil 5-day after initial data says they fell short of it.
8.Killers: 3.5mil
9.Shrek whatever it's called: 2.7mil
10.Jonah Hex: 2mil
TS3 has a shot at beating Avatar. Avatar had monster weekday numbers when it came out (to remind you all Avatar was gross between 16-18 million a day for two weeks after it opened) TS3 has held on like Avatar during its weekday grosses.
1. TS3-75 million
2. Grown Ups-35 million. This movie looks terrible, but so have most of Sandlers recent movies and they all did well opening weekend.
3. Knight and Day-20 million. I want to see this movie, but it had a terrible opening day, it could rebound this weekend because it's target audience will not be at work.
4. Karate Kid-19 million
5. A-Team 10 million
I could see TS3 surprising and holding even better than most predictions or falling in line with expectations.
It's not totally impossible the secong weekend record could be broken so quickly.
Although a few online projectors are waiting to see now how 'Knight and Day' does on the Friday since there's a general consensus that the last minute shift to Wednesday may (possibly) have had a hand in the low start.
I would go see Knight & Day but something about the whole Charlie's Angel crowd, including Cameron Diaz, is off-putting to me. Too much fake girl power maybe. Bring on Salt!
Salt looks pretty good but it's giving me a whole 'No Way Out' vibe at the present.
Just ramped up for 2010.
Angelina rides performance motorcycles, flies helicopters, and adopts children from developing countries. Kevin Costner plays golf.
I was really trying more to consider the films involved and not the personal lives of the actors attached.
They can do whatever they want off-scren.
That's where star power comes in, though. I wouldn't be interested on Salt if it starred Cameron Diaz. And few would be interested if it starred an unknown actress.
If Jolie could actually open a movie that isn't a high-octane action film I might agree with you. She has star power – but it's narrowly defined to one style of film so far. As is her star power.
Every time she leaves that genre alone, audiences leave her alone as well.
I should add that I have no interest in Salt due to Jolie specifically being in it (especially since the whole project was reconcieved anyway after Tom Cruise dropped out) but simply that it looks decent.
Some actors have their niche. Diaz probably wouldn't sell this film the same way Jolie does, but then Diaz never made herself Lara Croft either, thus setting herself up for such roles.
It occurs to me that I've never seen an Angelina Jolie movie that was particularly good in my opinion. I suppose "Girl Interrupted" was, but it's not really a film I'd revisit over and over. I think it's the fact that so many of her projects ultimately disappoint me that has me kind of down on "Salt".
I don't really consider myself a Costner fan, but looking back over his filmography, there are a surprising number of films I really enjoyed in there, "No Way Out" included. But hey… If his gizmos somehow actually clean the Gulf of Mexico, I'll be his fan for life.
Brad, I agree with you on grown ups. Last year, it was year one, 2 years ago, it was the love guru. Terrible reviews, basically a bomb. But I can't agree with you on knight and day. Even though it didn't open so well on Wednesday, it is pretty familiar. Opening the same week as a bomb. A year ago, it was The Proposal. 2 years ago, it was Get Smart. They also get mixed reviews. And I saw it last night and I liked it. So Knight and Day will open at $30-$40 million. But Toy Story 3, I agree with you totally on. It's great, Great reviews, best animated movie of the year(tied with how to train your dragon), great animation, and who the hell doesn't like Toy Story. And shrek will take 9th beating Jonah Hex. Jonah Hex must be a real bad movie. But I am dissapointed in the A Team. I just hope it reaches past $75 million.
K&D will have to speed up quite a bit come Friday for that to realistically happen. It's Thursday gross was bit lower than even the Wednesday at $3.5 million.
1. Toy Story 3 – $68.67 million
2. Grown Ups – $29.81 million
3. The Karate Kid – $21.15 million
4. Knight & Day – $17.47 million
5. The A-Team – $8.3 million
6. Get Him to the Greek – $3.61 million
7. Shrek Forever After – $3.49 million
8. Killers – $2.84 million
9. Prince of Persia – $2.77 million
10. Jonah Hex – $2.45 million