Box-Office Oracle: Jun. 19 – Jun. 21, 2009
COMMENTS
Screw everything, let's take The Hangover to win a third straight weekend.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row
1. The Hangover
It's going to be an insanely close weekend at the top. I had Up taking the crown until the late breaking news came in that The Hangover is gaining 190 theaters. That was enough to swing the balance. If I get it right this weekend The Hangover will become the first movie since Tropic Thunder to three-peat.
Estimate: $24.3 million
2. The Proposal
I've got it at $7500 per theater, the number that 27 Dresses hit back in 2008. Of course the Heigl film was released in January, not June… but I think the reviews are going to catch up to the Proposal, costing it 10% of its business – just enough to forfeit the crown.
I'll throw another random fact at ya: adjusted for inflation only one Sandra Bullock film has ever opened this well. That movie? Speed, which opened at $14.5m back in 1994. So while everyone knows Bullock… she's never been a huge draw.
Estimate: $22.9 million
3. Up
Yep, I've got Up losing by a mere $100k. Which means that I won't really be able to trust the estimates on Sunday. Which means you can expect a ton of excuses unless the results are super definitive. Just warning you.
Estimate: $22.8 million
4. Year One
On the early commenter predictions from last Sunday Bustray had Year One winning with $27.5m. JAB had The Proposal taking it with a healthy $30m. Gophers Attack liked The Proposal too, but at a lesser $28.8m. The only guy on my side? Shane-o-Mac with a lovely $25m call on The Hangover. Anyone change their mind from last weekend to now? It's okay if you do, the ability to reason is the hallmark of a strong intellect.
Oh, and Year One is doomed. Just like Land of the Lost, but moreso.
Estimate: $16.2 million
What this weekend really adds up to is that the road is paved for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. Very nice luck and/or scheduling by Paramount.
Estimate: $12.5 million
It sits at $323m on a budget of $150m. Does anyone know how international splits work? I know domestic deals generally favor the studios initially before sliding back to a theater advantage in weekends three and four. Is international a similar deal? Or worse for the studios because distribution is tougher overseas?
Estimate: $6.0 million
We can say Ferrell's box-office future is in trouble, right? Or is this just a continuation of his big hit followed by slight miss career?
Estimate: $3.9 million
8. Star Trek
As of press time theater counts hadn't been released for Star Trek. So I could end up a couple hundred thousand dollars off.
Estimate: $2.8 million
The bleeding has slowed, which is what happens as the overall dollar amounts get lower. It's still around $240m (worldwide cume) shy of T2's $520m. And that half a billion was in 1991. So, no, the news still isn't rosy.
Estimate: $2.2 million
I wish I could slot Brothers Bloom or Away We Go into tenth place. But they simply don't have enough theaters. See one of them this weekend to prove me wrong.
Estimate: $2.1 million
Your turn. Can Hangover three-peat? Am I underrating the rom-com and Sandra? Or can Up pull off a strange 4th weekend victory? Anyone want to stick their neck out to tout Year One? I leave it to you commenters, drop an egg of knowledge on me.
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My predictions:
1. The Hangover 25 million
2. The Proposal 22 million
3. Up 21.5 million
4. Year One 19 million
5. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 14.5 million
6. Land of the Lost 6.5 million
7. Night at the Museum 2 6 million
8. Star Trek 3.5 million
9. Angels and Demons 2 million
10. Terminator Salvation 1.5 million
I'm bumping Proposal down a little. I just don't see that big of an opening anymore, even if it should just be enough to beat the unstoppable duo of Hangover and Up. Year One will do fine- there are tons of teenagers who haven't been able to get into Hangover and have had nothing to see since Up.
1. Proposal: 25.2m
2. Hangover: 24.8m
3. Up: 23.2m
4. Year One: 18.3m
5. Pelham 1 2 3: 11.5m
Overall it should be a pretty big snoozefest (I'm planing on finally seeing Hangover and maybe an Ice Age 3 sneak preview on Sunday) compared to the robot-fest next weekend.
i say year one will be number one but next weekend everyone knows revenge of the fallen will destroy everything in it's sight
Yeah, things aren't looking too good for Year One now that reviews are beginning to roll in… but I feel like Jack Black and Michael Cera combined have double the star power of Will Ferrell right now. And I have a hard time believing that Year One could be worse then Land of the Lost. So yes, I'd like to tout it. :)
The Proposal is really the only movie aimed at female audiences since Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, so it should be pretty successful. It has also been advertised considerably well, and has played in front of quite a couple kids movies, so some families will ignore the rating and take the kids to it.
Up should experience an extremely small drop this week; last week, Imagine That stole a small amount of its audience, and the week before it faced the usual second week drop, which is usually larger than any drops that come after it. However, there is no competition for Up this week (besides the minor threat of The Proposal), so it should drop less than 30%.
And it has been reported that The Hangover has had nearly as many women attending as men. So, assuming that Year One and The Proposal both do well, the women will be stolen by The Proposal, and the men by Year One. However, if either flops, that number could rise.
1. The Proposal- $25.7 million
2. Year One- $23.1 million
3. Up- $22.5 million
4. The Hangover- $21.3
5. The Taking of Pelham 123- $12.6 million
6. Night At The Museum 2- $7.1 million
7. Land of the Lost- $3.7 million
8. Star Trek- $3.4 million
9. Imagine That- $3.2 million
10. Terminator Salvation- $2.1 million
Actually, looking at the theater count, Hangover will be #1 again. The weekdays have just been way too strong to prove otherwise.
Laremy, the studios have a similar, but slightly more difficult deal overseas. It's basically the same ticket sale percentage that the studio receives domestically, which later in the film's run favors the theater company. However, because of the global distribution company being thrown into the mix, the studio usually has to split their share 50/50 with said distributor. Sometimes it's a 60/40 split favoring the distributor.
One thing to keep in mind is that overseas there are fewer theaters, they have cheaper ticket prices, and they play movies on shorter runs. When a foreign gross as massive as a Dark Knight, Indy IV, or Star Trek come in, it's immense and the studios (and international distributors) recoup massive amounts of cash.
@Matt: Thanks Matt. That's pretty much what I figured.
1. The Hangover 21.85 million
2. Up 20.1 million
3. The Proposal 18.8 million
4. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 12.5 million
5. Year One 8.6 million
6. Night at the Museum 6.6 million
7. Land of the Lost 5.2 million
8. Star Trek 3.3 million
9. Angels and Demons 2.3 million
10. Terminator Salvation 1.7 million
This month has been strange for movies: a few hits and a lot of misses. But hey, at least 'Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen' doesn't have any competition.
This week i think 'The Proposal' might be no. 1 on friday and it will drop to no. 2 on Saturday and Sunday. I suspect it making anywhere from $25 to $31 million, just because date movies turn out to be a pretty good result. 'Year one' will be in the top 5 spots for sure.
Eddie Murphy should've just known that his career wasn't going to get better when he read the script for 'Imagine That'. Because when a movie has a $55 million budget, and it only makes $5 million on opening weekend, and this keeps happening with the movies your in, you need to take the hint. Ok, Eddie Murphy?!
1.The Proposal=28.3mil
The first girl-centric comedy of the summer. Easily the first choice of the female demographic this weekend.
2.UP=22.8mil
I see UP having the slimmest decline among holdovers this week (25%-30%). No family film enters the fray this week and "Imagine That" prety much went belly up. UP is still the top destination for family audiences.
3.The Hangover=22.0mil
Will hold pretty well, but will decline a tad bit more than last week. Echoing was Bustray stated, women have helped this film but now enters"The Proposal" into the mix. The men will now return the favor to their girls-who went with them to see Hangover- by taking them to see it.
4.Year One=21.5mil
Looked promising early on, but that has been overcome and the buzz now is akin to "Land of the Lost." Doesn't even appear in the fandango top 5 sellers as of Thurs PM. Also, I've read reports of critics and moviegoers walking out of advance screenings of this one.
5.Taking of Pelham=11.7mil
I guess people prefer Denzel to be more like the Bad-ass character and not looking old and overweight.
1.The Proposal: 27.2mil
Women will drive this to no.1
2.Up: 21.9mil
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/pixar-up-movie-2468059-home-show
(I salute you even more Pixar)
3.The Hangover:21.6mil
Could flip-flop with UP.
4.Year One: 20.5mil
Getting even worse reviews than Land of the Lost, and it doesn't have the visual spectacle that will at least alleviated some of those reviews, and carry it to a solid opening
5.Pelham 123: 13mil
Maybe a release around Sept or Oct. would've been better
Wait….where's Imagine That?
I thought this was the week Angels and Demons or Terminator Salvation would fall out of the top ten.
@Eric: Yeaah! That's what I was thinking!
My prediction goes like this:
1. The Hangover: 24.8
2. The Proposal: 24.1
3. Up: 22.3
4. Year One: 19.1
5. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3: 10.7
6. Night at the Museum 2: 5.9
7. Land of the Lost: 4.1
8. Star Trek: 3.3
9. Terminator Salvation: 2.5
10. Imagine That: 2.3
Without looking it up, movies like "The Proposal" that have a "sneak preview" like last weekend tend to be above average. Let's go bold with Proposal over $30M and Year One under 10M. If I bat .500 I can live with it.
I'll be the crazy one and say Year One will win with 25 million. Then The Hangove with 21 mil, then The Proposal with 19 mil, then Up with 15 mil.
I think it's a big mistake to lump Year One in with Land of the Lost, i'm not saying it's gonna be a major success, but it won't be a catastrophic flop. I'm making a few minor adjustments, but my picks aren't really changing too much.
1. The Proposal – $27.3 Million
2. Year One – $25.9 Million
3. The Hangover – $24. 7 Million
4. Up – $23.8 Million
5. Taking of Pelham 123 – $13.1 Million
6. Night at the Museum – $5.6 Million
7. Star Trek – $3.3 Million
8. Land of the Lost – $3.1 Million
9. Terminator Salvation – $2.0 Million
10. Away We Go – $1.8 Million
1. The Proposal $28M – The female audience has been ignored this year, and the reviews have been positive. Great marketing by Disney as well.
2. The Hanover $23.3M – The best comedy so far and I'm glad it's doing so well.
3. Up – $21.8M – The kids don't have much this weekend, so this will have another great weekend before Transformers next weekend.
4. Year One – $17.1M – The reviews are horrid, the trailers aren't funny, and the Hangover and The Proposal will take its business. I heard someone say that it will make you forget Harold Ramis made Caddyshack and Groundhog Day.
5. The Taking of Pelham 123 – $12.8M
6. Night at the Museum 2 – $6.4M
7. Land of the Lost – $4M
8. Star Trek – $3M
9. Terminator Salvation – $2.3M
10. Imagine That – $2.1M
I wonder if Transformers will have 2009's first $100M weekend or do you think that it will lose some weekend dollars be lost. I'm predicting a $90M open for Transformers.
3 films are locked for at least 20mil. Year One could make it 4. I think this is how it all unfolds…
1. The Proposal= 29.2mil
Two words, Girl Power
2. UP=23mil
At 300mil pace thus far. Was top grosser every Sat since it opened. None of the new films this weekend are a threat to take away from it's core audience, and it has crossed over and has become a "4-quadrant film" (men and women, both young and old)
3. The Hangover=22.7mil
The Proposal will take some steam out of this one. Not much, but enough to end it's reign. As have been discussed by earlier posters, women has helped push this movie's totals, but a female-targeted film has now entered the marketplace this summer.
4.Year One= 21.0mil
It doesn't bode well when the reviews are as worse-maybe even worse-than Land of the Lost. All those Ads during the NBA finals won't help much. I think young males will go for another serving of Hangover than this one. The duo of Black and Cera might just be enough to carry this over 20mil, but it could also easily open in the high teens
5.Pelham 123= 13.8mil
Bad release date perhaps?
@TheCheckSpot: I think the early release will take away from the weekend, and keep Transformers from being the 1st 100mil weekend opener of the year. There is still a chance it could do it, but I think Wed and Thur will just take up way to much. Revenge of the sith opened on a Thurs and made 50mil, then it made 108mil over the weekend(Fri-Sun), but Transformers 2 is opening a day earlier on a Wed. It could feasibly have 85mil headed into the weekend, and I see another 80-90 on the weekend.
I've taking this a step higher and will be foregoing with the mindset I had last week for this one.
1. YEAR ONE – $36.3 million
Geez guys, just because it isn't the Hangover, and because it's set in an adventure setting, doesn't mean it automatically die like Land of the Lost. For one, LOTL was messed up in it's advertising and didn't know who it's audience was (seriously, that screwed it over like no other). YEAR ONE knows what it is and how it should present itself and the audience wants this. I've seen the trailer with a lottttt of summer movies and it gets a solid reaction everytime. It's just silly comedy. And if you didn't know, school lets out this week for the majority of students, and what better refuge than the guy from School of Rock/Kung Fu Panda and the little wimp from Juno? In all seriousness though.. that's a solid, appealing comedic pair to tons and tons of teens. This should do well. I have no idea why anyone is doubting it.
2. THE PROPOSAL – $27.6 million
Romantic comedies haven't been faring well, but something tells me this appeals massively to a lot of girls. Sandra Bullock is a cheesy, old hag (and so naturally.. girls will pay in dollars to watch 90 minutes of cheesyness) and Ryan Reynolds is appealing to the majority of females everywhere (or they at least don't mind him at all). I'd say this should do extremely nifty and better than a lot of the romantic comedies that have come out this year.
3. THE HANGOVER – $22.1 million
Should hold well enough. It's the biggest comedy of the year, and curiosity and repeat viewings are just gonna keep on coming.
And yes.. TRANSFORMERS 2 will steamroll over EVERYTHING in it's path. Everyone is in danger. The path is completely clear for a true summer blockbuster.
Michael Bay…Transformers…. we're all set to see what you have for us. Bring it on. Ready!
=]
1.) The Proposal – $24.5 mil
Amidst all the Action and Adventure releases of the Summer, comes this Rom-Com… I think its release timing should help it get the top slot
2.) The Hangover – $22 mil
Had Year One got good reviews, Hangover might have crashed this weekend… But that wont be happening.. Still a 33% drop would get it down to 2nd slot
3.) Up – $21 mil
Another Success story for DISNEY/PIXAR
4.) Year One – $ 18.5 mil
I think Laremy has got it right… This will be the next Land Of The Lost… However i still think some people will watch it just to see how bad it really is
5.) Taking of Pelham 123 – $ 11 mil
Not much surprise here… would be lucky enough to hit 11 mil… should be out of theatres in 2 weeks
1. The Proposal – $25 million. 8k per theater sounds about right.
2. The Hangover – $23.4 million. It's -28.5% from the last weekend, though it could lose more under the pressure of two opening comedies. But I wanna be optimistic.
3. Up – $22.8 million. No films aimed for kids this weekend, and I got it at 5.9k per theater, which is -25% from the third weekend. And Finding Nemo's average had the same drop in the same weekend 6 years ago.
4. Year One – $16.5 million. Agreed with Laremy here.
5. Pelham 123 – $12.1 million. A nice 48% drop. Though it could fall harder, but there is no competition, so it should do well. But when Transformers and Public Enemies come, it will simply crush.
If Will Ferrell had played the Alan character in The Hangover, I doubt the box office would have been hurt any. People way overrate the ratio at which star powers draws compared to quality of material.
It seems that this time last year The Love Guru and Get Smart were entering the theaters. Get Smart was a decent success and The Love Guru flopped. Now you have a very popular comedic guy, Jack Black, with Year One. Which is similar to The Love Guru (Mike Myers). Both Year One and The Love Guru do have that "this is so stupid, why would I see it vibe (though I saw Love Guru and liked it, but yet I'm an obsessed Austin Powers and Wayne's World fan. And I will probably see Year One). I dont see Year One flopping as much as The Love Guru, but just not as good as ppl thought it would have done (prob. 23 mil opening). The Proposal sort of like Get Smart a relaxing non thinking comedy. This one could get in the 30s and shoot for 100 mil. That is of course if people still come to see it while the transformers is out next week. UP will be one of our 300 mil movies I think, along with Trasnformers and Harry Potter 6. Hangover will do well again and will prob. end with 225 mil at the end. But I could be wrong with this whole thing and The Hangover and Land of The Lost were the similar to Get Smart and The Love Guru.
@Chuck Bartowski:
Everyone is doubting Year One because everyone who's seen it knows it's terrible. At least Land of the Lost had a few chuckle inducing WTF? moments, Year One was just…. bad.
The Land of the Lost comparisons are wrong, yes. I'd compare Year One to The Love Guru. The quality of this piece of shit movie does not bode well for any Ghostbusters 3 prospects.
@Just Myself: This may be true, but let it be noted that comparing this movie to the Love Guru is a bit to extreme. Year One is, at the moment, the only movie that will appeal to the male teenage audience, for they are too young to get into Hangover alone. At the time the love guru came out, it was still heavily competing with Get Smart, The Incredible Hulk, and You Don't Mess With The Zohan. And while Year One probably won't be able to hit the $30 million mark, I think it's safe to say that it won't bomb.
I think with Sunday being Fathers day, it will be a boost to the family films that are currently in the B.O. (UP and Night at the Museum 2 in particular stands to do well that day, and to a lesser extent, Land of the Lost and Year One)
Once again, just because you hate a movie, doesn't mean everyone else will feel the same way. Also, not a lot of people have seen it since it just came out today. People are smart enough to listen to good word-of-mouth but they're also smart enough to follow their own tastes and not let anyone else decide for them. If they want to see it, they'll see it. And it looks like a lot of people are pretty interested in it. Just to laugh and relax.
1.The Proposal–27.6mil: Blame the women
2.UP–23.3mil:Word of mouth is through the roof. Also, I think Fathers Day will help this too, with many familes who are looking for a movie to watch together.
3.The Hangover–22.8mil: The Proposal will take away the female audience that has helped elevate this movie. Nevertheless, will still remain strong.
4.Year One– 22.5mil: This will be so frontloaded, wherein it will open to maybe 9mil on Fri, but WILL plummet like a rock Sat and Sun, next weekend, and ensuing weekends. Word of mouth from those who have seen it (not just critics) are simply put, garbage. Will open respectably on the strength of Black and Cera.
5.Pelham123–13.3mil: Like what was already said in predictions above. Should've opened in the fall.