Box-Office Oracle: Jun. 12 – Jun. 14, 2009
COMMENTS
Gotta go with Up this weekend, even though it didn't work last time.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row
1. Up
In a photo finish, I ended up losing last weekend as Hangover slipped past Up. So I'm taking Up again, if only to prove I'm stubborn.
Estimate: $30.2 million
I've put it right smack dab in the middle of John Q and Inside Man (per theater). It's not doing well on RT, which means it probably won't win the word of mouth battle either.
Estimate: $27.7 million
3. The Hangover
Simple math is going to get it, even it's a solid film. It's in 550 less theaters (than Up), and people already came out in droves last weekend. So I'm giving it a 40% bleed, which is fantastic, but not enough to win the weekend.
Estimate: $27.0 million
A $100m dollar budget, and it's made $24m so far. So no, not ideal.
Estimate: $9.0 million
It looks as though it will end up as the #2 grossing PG film of 2009, behind only Monsters vs. Aliens.
Estimate: $8.7 million
6. Imagine That
I've got this ranked waaaaaaay low. But I think the general public has had it with Eddie Murphy, whether he deserves that or not. It could crack double digits, heck it could finish as high as fourth, but I'm doubtful.
Estimate: $7.0 million
7. Star Trek
Did you know that this was the highest grossing TV to Movie adaptation of all time? It's true. You can look it up. Domestic, not adjusted for inflation, and so on. Get Smart, Sex and the City, and Mission Impossible have all been topped.
Estimate: $5.0 million
This title, on the other hand, probably has a lower budget than Terminator: Salvation's $200m. How much do goat effects cost?
Estimate: $3.7 million
$409m worldwide. But still, the $758m of Da Vinci Code won't be sniffed.
Estimate: $3.0 million
Next weekend is a little sad, predicting-wise, with only Year One and The Proposal going wide. Can Year One hit $30m? Can The Proposal hit $20m? Who the hell is going to take the crown? I humbly await your input.
Also, here is a behind-the-scenes look at The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 (official site) from our paid advertiser Columbia Pictures (ad blockers must be turned off if you want to watch it).
Links from Other Sites You May Like
Showing 20 Comments
~ PLEASE NOTE ~
If, in any way, your comment is an attack on the author of this post or a previous commenter, your comment will be deleted without question.
Add a New Comment |
DON'T WANT YOUR COMMENT DELETED?
Click to Read Our Commenting Rules & Guidelines
Click to Read Our Commenting Rules & Guidelines
Want an avatar for your comments? Click here to sign up with Gravatar.
1.UP=30.2mil
Sensational word of mouth has this on course for 275-300mil
2.Pelham 123=28.7mil
Will have a respectable opening on the strength of Denzel's name. Though I don't see strong legs with this one
3.The Hangover=28.5mil
Sensational word of mouth has this on course for 180-210mil.
4.Night at the Museum 2=9.2mil
With UP still having the overwhelming majority of families flocking to it, this remains the no.2 option.
5. Land of the Lost=8.2mil
The finger-pointing is ongoing at Universal over this one.
6.Imagine That=7mil
The no.3 option for families but there's not much left to go around with UP going strong, and NatM2 taking most of the leftovers.
This week:
1. The Hangover – $31.5 Million
I think they'll get it again in a close race, the word of mouth is out of contol.
2. Up – $30 Million
3. Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 – $23.8 Million
too much can and will go wrong with this.
4. Night at the Museum – $9 Million
5. Star Trek – $6.5 Million
6. Imagine That – $5.5 Million
7. Land of the Lost – $5 Million
yeah, it's gonna drop that far.
8. Terminator Salvation – $4 Million
9. Drag Me to Hell – $3.6 Million
I still don't get why this did worse than Haunting In Connecticut
10. Angels and Demons – $2.4 Million
1. Hangover: $32.8M (-27%)- weekday numbers are un-freaking-believable, as is word-of-mouth
2. Up: $30.5M (-30%)- on its way to being Pixar's second biggest domestic gross yet. could not be more happy for it
3. Taking of Pelham 1 2 3: $25.8M- solid, but reviews are very mixed and it has to share the adults with Hangover
4. Imagine That: $12.2M- decent amount of interest from families
5. NATM: $8.8M
Up – 31.3
The Hangover – 28.7
The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 – 27.3
Night at the Museum – 8.2
Land of the Lost – 7.8
Imagine That – 5.8
Star Trek – 5.3
Terminator Salvation – 4.1
Angels & Demons – 3.5
Drag Me to Hell – 3.2
MY PREDICTIONS
1. THE HANGOVER – $33.6 million
SOLID flick. A wonderful summer comedy that, no exaggeration, is extremely, extremely entertaining and is just the type of film to relax and laugh at in the summer.. more than once. Curious older audiences will go check it out to see what the 40 million dollar fuss is all about, and it should get plenty of repeat viewings, with friends who've seen it, bringing friends who haven't.
2. UP – $29.9 million
The best film of the year so far (in my opinion) deserves to do this well. Looks like the whole "well my child was bored during the movie" didn't stop other parents from paying to see the wonder and gorgeous and heartbreaking film experience that is UP. Should hold well.
3. TAKING OF PELHAM 1 2 3 – $25.9 million
Should do Collateral numbers. Collateral looked way better though and this certainly doesn't look too exciting or original.. but older audiences just cannot ignore Denzel Washington so… decent it shall do. John Travolta playing a wise-cracking villain probably doesn't hurt either.
4. IMAGINE THAT – $14.1 million
Looks like this weekend is a weekend of bland unoriginality. Although this does look like nothing new at all, it's getting some pretty good reviews (way better than Murphy's past stuff) and is basically just being slapped from all around with a "totally harmless" sticker. Good enough. And it certainly doesn't look anywhere near flat-out stupid. Looks sweet actually. Should do fine.
5. LAND OF THE LOST – $8.6 million
You're out of here.
As for next week, I'm putting YEAR ONE at the upper-thirties (about $37.5 million) and PROPOSAL at the mid-to-upper twenties ($27 million?).
Have a beautiful weekend everyone!
=]
"Night at the Museum 2" will actually be the 3rd highest grossing PG movie of '09, since "Up" is actually PG as well.
However my Top 5 picks:
1. UP $30 million
2. Hangover $28.7 million
3. Pelham 123 $27.5 million
4. Night at the Musuem II $9.1 million
5. Imagine That $7.9 million
I'm dropping Land of the Lost from the Top 5 becuase its just annoying. I cant remember a recent film with this bad word of mouth, that is still so saturating the airwaves with TV spots, Behind the Scenes specials, and product tie-ins.
Top 3….
Up: $26.7 Million
Taking of Pelham 123: $22.7 Million
The Hangover: $20.2 Million
next weekend i think Year One with $35.8 Million. Jack Black should be good enough to Year One some good numbers. I doubt shooting the majority of the film in smalltown, Louisiana cost a whole lot….
I believe Up is rated PG, so that would make Museum the number 3.
1. The Hangover- $29.7 million
This doesn't seem like the film that drops heavily in its second weekend; rather, the one that increases its audience, or has a low drop. It has no big stars, no big buzz, yet nearly 4 million people saw it. And nearly all of them loved it, judging by the small decreases it has had mid-week. This one should drop a small amount, as people recommend others to see it and others see it for a second, or possibly third time.
2. Up- $26.9 million
It will take a hit from Imagine That- but not a very big one. It is showing very similar patterns to Finding Nemo, so Up could very possibly be the first movie of 2009 to cross the $250 million mark, if not $300 million. Pixar kicks ass.
3. Taking of Pelham 123- $21.2 million
People are saying that it isn't very good, and Travolta & Washington aren't as big box office draws as they were before. So while it may open to around $8 million on Friday, it will probably not have a Saturday increase, rather a decline.
4. Imagine That- $12.8 million
It actually looks kind of amusing; definitely like something parents would want to take their kids to. It may epically fail, but I have a feeling it won't be a huge disaster.
5. Land of the Lost- $8.6 million
I'm glad this one has failed so badly so badly. It was unbearably horrible.
Other predictions for everything else…
6. NATM 2- $8.3 million
7.Star Trek- $5.6 million
8. Terminator Salvation- $4.4 million
9. Drag Me To Hell- $3.6 million
10. Angels & Demons- $3.4 million
For next weekend it will be a close race between year one and the proposal, but year one will probably come out on top because it looks mad funny. Have a great weekend, everybody.
1.UP=31mil.
Smooth sailing ahead as it sets sail to the 275-maybe 300-million range
2.The Hangover=30mil
Will be neck and neck with UP, and we might not know the actual no.1 until monday
3.Pelham 123=26.4mil
This is as high as it goes imho. Denzel Washington is still draw so it will have a respectable opening.
4.NatM2=9mil
Will pick up whatever UP leaves in it's wake, again.
5.Land of the Lost=6.8mil
2nd weekend drop will be one of the highest in recent memory. Will fight with Imagine That for whatever is left after UP and NatM have taken everything.
6.Imagine That=6.5mil
It will be no surprise though if it goes even lower. It's not a good sign that it's nowhere to be seen in online sales radars as we speak
I'm going with Pelham leading with 35 million. I have the feeling it will pull in not what Wanted did last year, but will take the weekend. The Hangover will take 2nd at 30 million, and Up at 25 million. Land of the Lost will crack about 10 million, followed by Imagine That at 7 million.
1.UP=31.1mil
2.The Hangover=30mil
These 2 great films will be in the top 2 once more. They are still the top selling tickets online of all movies in wide release to this date. Plus, they are actually good films that has generated word of mouth that will ascertain a long prosperous box office run
3.Pelhmam 123=26.4mil
Will open ok. Denzel Washington does carry some weight with the moviegoing public.
4.Night at the Museum 2=9.3mil
5.Land of the Lost=8.5mil
6.Imagine That=7.2mil
Doesn't look good. Has no fuzzy animals (dolittle) or great sfx (nutty prof) that will entice kids. Families will continue to go to UP, and the rest to Night 2. Also, as of Thurs evening, this constitutes a whopping "1%" of all online sales this week.
Have a good weekend guys. My weekend will be a 2nd viewing of Hangover, and a 3rd viewing of UP as promised to my kids.
@Harry:
Number four; "Ice Age Dawn of the Dinosaurs" will have the family audience to itself come July 4th- you'd be crazy if you didn't think it would break at least $180 million.
Oddly enough, Pelham 123 is Washington's first summer release since The Manchurian Candidate. Before that, you'd have to go even further back to He Got Game and Courage Under Fire as summer releases. But I think the fact alone that it's being released this time of year should help.
On one hand, marketing has been solid and it's got two big names. But on the other hand, it's got mixed-to-bad reviews, an R-rating, and business taken away from two smash hits duking it out for #1 from last weekend. Not only that, Deja Vu was the last Scott-Washington collab, had a PG-13 AND better reviews and that only opened with $28.4mil in five days.
Bottom line, Pelham 123 will need some luck because it has everything going against it. If it fails, I think studios will be more inclined to keep releases like it in months like March or October instead….
If Pelham finds that luck, I'm thinking it'll be TIGHT:
1.) The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 – $27.9mil
2.) Up – $27.4mil
3.) The Hangover – $27.1mil
I'm basing my predictions on Fandango online sales as of Friday morning 8am PT.The Taking of Pelham is responsible for 21% of sales, barely trailing UP at 24%. Meanwhile, Hangover has sold 15%, and Imagine That represents a mediocre 7%.
1. UP-32.1mil
2. Pelham123-28.3mil
3. Imagine That- 27.8mil
4. Night at the Museum 2-9.5mil
5. Imagine That-9mil
I put "The Hangover" at 1st place. I think "simple math," as you put it, is actually what's going to help it. Look at its daily holds. Over the weekdays it has been holding better than "Knocked Up," and that only fell 36% its first weekend. So I think "The Hangover" could score a 35% drop or better, which would put it around $30 million.
Looked at my theather website, and not only was "Hangover" on more screens, two showing where sold out for friday night then.
i think pelham will barely take the top spot due mostly for respect to travolta's son and denzel. and its the only real action film since terminator
1. pelham
2. up
3. hangover
4. night at the museum 2
5. land of the lost
6. star trek
7. imagine that
8. terminator
9. angels
10. drag me
Whoa, it's gonna be another close one between Hangover and UP based on Fridays's estimates. Hangover 10.4mil and UP 8.9mil. Being a family movie, UP will do most of it's business Sat and Sun-particularly, the matinees. We probably won't get a clear no.1 again until Monday. I'm actually happy that these 2 great movies are being rewarded generously by moviegoers. Imagine That bombed. I guess Eddie Murphy didn't want to be overshadowed by Will Ferrell
The proposal will overcome 20 millons? will overcome 100 millons??
sorry for my bad english I'm from Spain