Box-Office Oracle: Jul. 24 – Jul. 26, 2009
COMMENTS
Harry Potter ... for the win!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
I'm not dropping Half-Blood Prince anything nearing Order of the Phoenix's 58 percent. That film faced off against Hairspray and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry. Compared to this weekend's competition those two look stout. So I'm going with a 52.5 percent bleed, let the chips fall where they may.
Estimate: $37.0 million
2. G-Force
If chipmunks can make cash then there is no reason to doubt guinea pigs. After all, I read guinea pigs are now expected to become the next big pet to own? What's not to love? I've got it winning the per theater average battle (among wide releases, more on that later) … while losing the overall dollar war.
Estimate: $32.3 million
Is Katherine Heigl bankable? What about Gerard Butler? Sure, they've both been in films that made oodles, but do people head out to the theater to take it what looks to be a formulaic rom-com (full disclosure: I haven't seen it)? It will do a decent $6500 per theater, but that's as far as I can take it.
Estimate: $18.7 million
4. Orphan
I'll admit it, slotting this film in at $5k per theater means I don't know what to make of it. If I thought it was doomed I'd call it $3k per. If I loved its chances I'd say $8k per was doable. As it stands I'm going safe, right in the middle.
Estimate: $13.8 million
An accelerated decline due to the demo competition at the top. Still, at $618m worldwide cume on a reported production budget of $90m they can't be too upset.
Estimate: $9.1 million
It's fallen 43 percent each of the last two weekends. I see no reason to buck that trend.
Estimate: $6.6 million
7. The Proposal
The Ugly Truth is going to hurt it, though that's fighting over scraps.
Estimate: $5.4 million
8. The Hangover
The highest grossing R Rated comedy of all time, if you don't adjust for inflation. Of course, I do adjust for inflation. Why doesn't everyone?
Estimate: $5.3 million
Doesn't have much chance of making back its budget after studio / distributor split is factored in. Are we seeing the last days of big budget Michael Mann films?
Estimate: $3.5 million
10. The Hurt Locker
This very easily could be Bruno, but that one lost so many theaters I had to ding it. Besides, Hurt Locker is getting rave reviews. Not from me, but from some folk. That might be enough to push it into big numbers in the city theaters it will inhabit.
Estimate: $2.6 million
Am I being too hard on Kat Heigl? Do you see G-Force stealing the crown? Am I giving Potter too much credit? Weigh in with your thoughts and predictions below!
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1.Half-Blood Prince=33mil
I see an OoTP type plunge here, and probably even more. Half Blood Prince is already having trouble outpacing OoTP during the dailies this week. Take away the midnight grosses, it's pretty much a wash. WOM is really mixed with the hardcore fanbase (the book fans), and that doesn't bode well since they are the ones franchises depend on heavily to lead the charge of repeat viewings
2.G-Force=27.5mil
Cute fuzzy animals equals plenty of kids in seats with parents in tow.
3.Ugly Truth=23.7mil
People, namely women and the date night crowd, must be tiring of The Proposal by now.
4.Ice Age 3=10.7mil
5.Orphan=10.1mil
6.Transformers 2=7.1mil
Ugh… I wish my views on Harry Potter 6's second weekend potential was as optimistic as yours… because I hate it when the horrible films end up doing so much better then the good ones. But then again, we live in America.
Word of mouth on Harry Potter 6 seems to be much better than the fifth one, but it hasn't had as good daily holds… this may just be because the wait was longer for this one, so it became much more frontloaded, but I figured its PG rating would help it with the midweek holds as family films usually do well then. However, on Tuesday, it was the only movie in wide release that dropped while everything else shot up… this may just be because of the already large quantity of money it was grossing, but still, it doesn't bode well for going into the weekend. I have it at a 55.5% drop, but I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped significantly more.
Every trailer I've seen for G-Force has been well-recieved by the audience, so the familys will probably rush out to this one (yet another reason why Harry Potter might drop harshly), and the fact that it has such a star-studded cast might add on a couple million. So I have it slightly above a Beverly Hills Chihuahua location average, and expect that it will have even better legs.
The Ugly Truth, much like Year One, should have a great Friday; around $7 million maybe, for Friday is usually date night- and then plummet Saturday and Sunday. A couple of my friends saw it and said it was the worst excuse for a movie since- well, since Transformers 2 came out, really. But who knows- if America likes crap like Transformers and Ghosts of a Girlfriend's Past, this could do a lot better.
Orphan, I've noticed, hasn't been getting very positive buzz. It's also rated R, so that will prevent teens from going to see this one. Ergo, this one could dip below $10 million if worst comes to worst. Predics:
1. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince- $34.6 million
2. G-Force- $33.9 million
3. The Ugly Truth- $18.3 million
4. Orphan- $10.2 million
5. Ice Age 3- $10.0 million
6. Transformers 2- $7.2 million
7. The Hangover- $7.0 million
8. The Proposal- $5.1 million
9. Public Enemies- $3.6 million
10. Bruno- $3.2 million
Have a good weekend, everyone!
1.Harry potter-$47.3
2.G Force-$25.6
3.Ugly truth-$13.4
4.Ice Age 3-10.9
5.Transformers 2-$10.7
6.Orphan-$10.2
7.Proposal-$8.1
8.Hangover-$7.8
9.Public Enemies-$5.5
10.Hurt Locker-$3.0
Still say "Ugly Truth" beats "G-Force" for #2.
1. HP6 – $35.6 Million
2. G-Force – $30.8 Million
3. Ugly Truth – $24.7 Million
1. Half Blood Prince: 33.7mil
After a monster midnight opening, it has sputtered and actually fell behind OotP on certain days during it's first full week. This weekend will show what the general word of mouth really is with this one.
2.G-Force: 28.8mil
Certainly looks to have more appeal to kids than Underdog and Bev. Hills Chihuahua. Plus it's in 3D.
3.Ugly Truth: 25.6mil
4.Ice Age 3: 11.3mil
Will lose a good number of it's 3D screens to G-Force
5.Orphan: 10.5mil
1.) Harry Potter 6 – $42.5 million
I was optimistic about this title last weekend( i was off by a very very small margin of $25mil). Still, i loved this movie and my optimistic mood regarding this title would continue. I cannot see it dropping 50%.
2.) G-Force – $34.5 million
I don't find this movie appealing. I think this one looks bad. But then this not about what me or other adults feel about this one. Its meant for the kids and they will go for this one. SURELY.
3.) The Ugly Truth – $ 21 million
I think the bad reviews will hurt this one. In fact 21 mil is an optimistic prediction.
4.) Orphan – $ 14.5 million
This looks like just another horror movie. Still, someone will definitely see this.
5.) Ice Age 3 – $ 11.2 million
I enjoyed this movie. Sure the first half was a little slow, but the second more than made up for it. This would end up being the highest grosser of the franchise.
6.) Transformers:ROTF – $ 8.5 million
Is this a commercial success yet??
7.) The Hangover – $ 6 million
Its last 2 weeks in the Top 10.
8.) The Proposal – $ 5.5 million
Last week for this one.
9.) Public Enemies – $ 3.5 million
10.) The Hurt Locker – $ 2.2 million
1. Half-Blood Prince – $31.5 million
I guess I'm the one who's pessimistic here. Yeah, I got it dropping 59.5%, that's even worse than Order. But I think G-Force is the stronger competition than Chuck & Larry and Hairspray.
2. G-Force – $28.1 million. Nothing special, but it will cross $100 million.
3. The Ugly Truth – $19.6 million. Got it at $6.8k per theater. I don't think it's going to make either 21 numbers, 27 Dresses numbers or The Proposal numbers.
4. Orphan – $12.1 million. That's $4.4k per theater. Should be more than enough.
5. Ice Age 3 – $9.1 million. Bye-bye, 3-D screens, hello, 48% drop.
6. Transformers 2 – $8.6 million. No direct competition this week, which should help.
7. The Hangover – $6.1 million. C'mon, make it to $270M.
8. The Proposal – $6.1 million. Sex and the City didn't hurt What Happens in Vegas. Bruno didn't hurt The Hangover. Why should The Ugly Truth hurt The Proposal?
9. Public Enemies – $4.3 million. I feel sorry for this movie, finally saw it yesterday and thought it was excellent. And it's doing these shitty numbers, struggling to make it to $100M. Damn.
10. Bruno – $3.4 million. Wait, haven't this movie just come out? Jeez, time sure flies.
Runner-ups:
500 Days of Summer – $1.8 million
Up – $1.6 million
The Hurt Locker – $1.25 million
i wish G Force and Ice Age 3 would get lost so Up could make $300m
"Doesn't have much chance of making back its budget after studio / distributor split is factored in. Are we seeing the last days of big budget Michael Mann films?"
Oh God, I hope not, but that's basically what's happening here. The gap between Vice and Public Enemies was too long and Mann actually redeemed himself (at least to his fans, I being one of 'em) for Vice. Sure he produces too, but it's evidentially not the same feel without him in the director's seat. As much as he's given faith to Peter Berg (and he definitely deserves credit), I do not believe that he is "the next Michael Mann".
Anyway, I'm checking out The Ugly Truth and The Hurt Locker tomorrow, I'm expecting some next-level action picture from the former, so hope the hype doesn't disappoint. These are my numbers:
1.) HP6 – $37.5m
2.) G-Force – $34.7m
3.) The Ugly Truth – $18.5m
4.) Ice Age 3 – $9.9m
5.) Orphan – $8 (I dunno, just got a strong feeling this one's gonna bomb)
*Geez, I meant the latter. Lol, how disapointed would I be if I really meant former/Ugly Truth. Sorry it's close to 5AM here….
Orphan 20.3 million
1. G-Force – $40.2M I'm going G-Force to take the top spot. It's got talking animals, action for kids too young for Transformers, and it's in 3-D. All this put in a blender spells success. I think my 40M number may be low.
2. Harry Potter 6 – $38M It will drop by a little more than 50%. What's keeping the drop from being higher is the addition of a few IMAX screens. Harry Potter for some reason doesn't have the "Let's See It Again" factor that a summer movie needs for legs, and due to the fact that a lot of die hard Potter fans (the ones who will go see it again) have been negative, it doesn't have the replay value. I may be a little too generous for this number.
3. The Ugly Truth – $22M The reviews are negative but that doesn't tend to keep people away from theaters. I think it will have a huge Friday and drop a bit by Saturday and Sunday. The R factor may be what keeps it from huge numbers like Proposal, since it doesn't have what Sex and The City had for a fan base and what Hangover had for solid reviews.
4. Orphan – $14.5M This is a hard one to predict. It does have the creepy factor that The Strangers had in its marketing combined with a mystery (what is Ester's secret? I want to know) that could make it a midlevel hit. And it's been a while since we've had a horror film.
5. Ice Age 3 – $8.5M When a film loses its 3-D theaters, it seems to be falling by minimum 50%. So, I think we should see a significant drop this weekend and then it will balance out next weekend, which seems to be the typical pattern now. And G-Force doesn't lose 3-D theaters until Aug. 21 when Shorts comes out. So I wonder what the legs will be like for that one.
6. Transformers 2 – $7.4M
7. The Hangover – $6.2M
8. The Proposal – $5.7M
9. Public Enemies – $4.2M
10. Bruno – $3.5M
1. Potter 6- 35mil
Like what has been said in earlier posts, the book fans which are the core fanbase of the Potter movies have been mixed at best which should damper repeat viewings. It is already showing itself as Potter 6 has fallen behind hard to Potter 5 for several days leading to this weekend.
2.G-Force- 32.6mil
There's a slim chance for an upset and this opening to no.1. Nevertheless, if Beverly Hills Chihuahua can open to 29mil, this movie with a premise that attracts little boys (action/spy stuff) and little girls (cute animals) will open higher. The 3D surcharge helps too.
3.Ugly Truth- 26.7mil
Will take away from the Proposal. On the other hand, Proposal's presence keeps this from getting in the 30mil range.
4.Ice Age 3- 10.2mil
Losing a good chunk of 3D venues to G-force will hurt.
5.Orphan- 8mil
6.Transformers 2- 7.2mil
Bustray: Sometimes, in baseball, the batter decides he's going to swing even before the pitch. Way back in March 2009 my co-workers were telling me they planned to see the new transformers movie. I think the anticipation of waiting for the movie added to their enjoyment of the film. It's all good.
Is it just me or does "The Ugly Truth" seem an unfortunate title for any movie just now, but especially a romantic comedy? Sound more like a chic flick. Did they market test this title? Is this a title that will add, subtract, or have no impact on it's box office?
re Is Katherine Heigl bankable? : There is a reason non-bankable but well known stars are put in movies(several actually.) Even if they can't specifically draw box office, they can lend a film respectability(and notice, and free publicity.) It can be very much like being the son/daughter of a celebrity. It can give you a shot, but you will still have to make it or break it on your own merit. I don't have a good feeling about this film, but I don't think it's Katherine Heigl's fault.
1.Potter 6= 32.2mi
2.G-Force= 30mil
3.Ugly Truth= 24.8mil
4.Ice Age 3= 11.5mil
5.Orphan=11.2mil
HP6 did 30$ mil this weekend…why is it doing so poorly?
In a way its not…its made 221$ mil in 12 days. Thats pretty good and it doesnt have any IMAX screens yet.
Give me ur thoughts. Theres no doubt thats its final gross will be where the last two are.
Give me ur thoughts
You ask why everyone else doesn't adjust for inflation. I don't because it's an unfair comparison. With the rise of the home video and DVD, adjusting for inflation is an unfair comparison as to which movie was the most popular with audiences. Back in the 80's, it'd be well over half a year before a film was out on DVD. If you wanted to see a film a second time, you couldn't do it after three months: you could either grit your teeth and stick it out, or go to the theater again. I think that comparing actual grosses levels the playing a little bit.