Box-Office Oracle: Jul. 23 – Jul. 25, 2010
Inception vs. Salt for the crown: Choose One!
I'd really like to keep the streak intact, but this weekend presents something of a challenge. Do you go with the heavily marketed actioner Salt? Or the highly acclaimed holdover Inception? Let's break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 5 Weeks In A Row
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| I'm only dipping it 35 percent based on strong word of mouth. It also retains the theater count crown, and it's put up strong Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday results, with almost another $30m added to the bottom line in 72 hours. As for the box office status, I'm still calling it uncertain. The movie is quality, that's for certain, but we'll need the international results to start being reported to fully understand how the $160m budget mindbender will play out. The "see it twice!" phenomenon certainly helps it, I know the second time I saw Inception it made more sense — and Brad caught new things on his third showing too. So it's a film that rewards effort and introspection. It's certainly the film I'll be pulling for this weekend. Prediction: $40.8 million |
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This projection has Salt winning the per theater average battle … and losing the box office war. It's not great, so even though it should have a nice Friday we'll see it tail off as the weekend progresses. That's my theory at least, I placed the per theater average right in the middle of Mr. and Mrs. Smith and Knight and Day.
Prediction: $39.73 million
Another strong holdover result, and it is gaining theaters this weekend! See? Distributors are finally catching on.
Prediction: $21.92 million
To me, this has Nancy Drew written all over it. I know the market is ripe for a new children's film but this one hasn't been marketed to the extreme like Toy Story 3 and Despicable Me. One caveat: I'm not sure how much power Selena Gomez exerts on the box office. Is she another Miley? Probably my riskiest prediction of the weekend.
Prediction: $19.58 million
Not much excitement for the rest of the top ten, so start pondering your own predictions right about now.
Prediction: $8.45 million
Avatar will keep the overall 3-D crown, but Toy Story 3 has already cracked the domestic top 15 of all-time. Solid.
Prediction: $6.73 million
The film cost too much (twice as much as Predators!) but it looks as though DVD sales and other revenue outlets (TV, Netflix, Redbox, PPV) will tip the balance for them.
Prediction: $6.45 million
Bright side: Eclipse didn't beat Toy Story 3 in the head to head battle. That gives you some hope, right?
Prediction: $5.76 million
I don't see how they could justify a sequel, financially. Then again I didn't see Ghost Rider 2 happening either .
Prediction: $3.23 million
The international box office bailed them out. Thanks overseas!
Prediction: $1.94 million
How say you? Salt or Inception, which will prevail? Is my Beezus number bonkers? It's your time to shine, predict away!
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1. Salt-$68 million
2. Inception-$35 million
3. Despicalbe Me-$20 million
4. Ramona and Beezus-$15 million
5. The Sorcerer's Apprentice-$9 million
6. Toy Story 3-$7 million
7. Grown Ups-$6 million
8. Eclipse-$5 million
9. The Last Airbender-$3 million
10. Predators-$1 million
Not that I want to see Salt succeed in this, but it will, and it will pull surprisingly big numbers because of the genre and the female demo. Inception's word of mouth is not as great as everyone thinks and it's one that I see falling the hardest weekend to weekend.
"Inception's word of mouth is not as great as everyone thinks"
You're out of your mind. It's through the roof. If you're basing it on people you know you need smarter friends.
I'm sure it is an amazing movie that will hold over well, but not at the level that most believe. Best example for me are the weekday numbers, which have been good but nothing exueberent. It's been decreasing in attendence day-to-day while other films have seen increases.
Actually, it's word of mouth is pretty amazing. Check out the holds it's having for the week. That's solid WOM. To make a $40M weekend, it will need about $12M or so. That's only 2M more than what it made on Monday. It will not drop too bad for the weekend. The people (I'm one of many) rushing to see it again should keep the drop small.
Inception – $37 Million
Salt – $35 Million
It really can go either way but my money is on Inception based on WOM and replay factor. (I'm taking my mom to see the film this Friday after seeing it twice, so that has to count for something.)
1. Inception $38.2 million
2. Salt $32.4 million
3. Despicable Me $21.1 million
4. Toy Story 3 $10.8 million
5. Ramona and Beezus $8.4 million
This may be one of the toughest weekends I've predicted in 4.5 months, because I really don't know what to think about Salt or Inception…or Ramona and Beezus for that matter.
1. Salt, $50.5 million. This is being marketed as Angelina Jolie playing a female Jason Bourne, and that should translate well, at least for opening weekend. Wanted will probably be the film it's most compared to, even though that doesn't look like the best comparison. It pulled in a $16,000 PTA its opening weekend, as did The Bourne Supremecy. I bumped it down some to account for Inception and audiences being more selective this summer. The more I think about it, the more I'm afraid I'm high, but I'd rather be and see it go lower and give Inception a chance at a repeat than predict a repeat for Inception and be disappointed.
2. Inception, $40 million. Another educated shot in the dark here. It'll have made between $35 and $40 million Mon-Thu, which is quite decent. Word of mouth has been great and once people start to hear it benefits from repeat viewings they'll likely think more about going back for a second time. I'm still afraid I'm high, but hopefully I'm close or even low. Because if it's able to hit this number, whether or not it wins this weekend, it will have a great shot to win next weekend against an awful field.
3. Despicable Me, $21.3 million. It was only off 41% last weekend; I'm only knocking it 35% this weekend.
4. Ramona and Beezus, $13.6 million. This is a $5,000 PTA, somewhere between Diary of a Wimpy Kid and Nancy Drew. That's the best I can come up with.
5. Toy Story 3, $7.1 million.
6. The Sorcerer's Apprentice, $7 million. Bruckheimer is the one hurting on this and Prince of Persia, not Disney. And that reduces the little hope I had for the completely unnecessary Pirates 4. But Disney isn't hurting for cash anyway, and Toy Story and Tron will be profitable enough to make these films nothing more than minor misfires for the mouse house.
7. Eclipse, $6.7 million.
8. Grown Ups, $5.9 million. This continues to defy expectations, and I continue to ask…why?
9. The Last Airbender, $3.8 million.
10. The Kids Are All Right, $3 million. If this can pull a $15,000 PTA in 201 theatres it can hit this number. Given the numbers it's been putting up, I'd say that's a legitimate possibility. For the record, the film I have it beating for this slot is Predators with $2.8 million.
I'm planning on seeing Inception for a third time this weekend, and may also check out Cyrus. Still waiting on The Kids Are All Right to make it out here.
Inception – 39.7
Salt – 35.7
Ramona & Beezus – 7.5
1. Inception 42M – WOM factor is most certainly in play here.
2. Salt 34M – Marketing is straightforward, but I'm honestly not seeing many people outside of the internet excited for this.
3. Despicable Me 21M – WOM is strong here as well.
4. Sorcerer's Apprentice 9.5M – This is dying down fast.
5. Twilight: Eclipse 9M – WOM is better than New Moon.
6. Toy Story 3 7.5M – There's not much to say here.
7. Grown Ups 6.2M – Laremy, you forgot to add international box office as something that would tip it off, since it hasn't opened up in many of those markets yet, and it looks to finish its run with over 150M domestic, which is better than some of his other recent work.
8. Ramona & Beezus 5.8M – I'm seeing about as many ads for this as Marmaduke.
9. The Last Airbender 3.6M – Shyamalan is an egomaniac who can't see that his films have gotten worse.
10. Predators 2.8M – This is dropping like a brick.
Salt– 55.4M
Inception– 38M
Despicable Me– 19.1M
Ramona and Beezus– 14M
The Sorcerer's Apprentice– 8.6M
Inception: 46.3
Salt: 42.9
1. Inception-50 m.- Word of mouth will be great. More people will see it.
2. Salt- Dont think Jolie will beat Inception.
3. The Sorcerers Apprentice-12.3 m.- I really enjoyed it. I wish more people picked over stupid DM. This was way better. I think it'll win more kids over this week. I don't think it will be a flop. Cmon. Crush DM!
4. DM- 11.9 m- Ugh. D+. Go TSA!
5. Toy Story 3- This deserves more than DM this week.
6. Ramona and Beezus- I have seen 0 marketing for it. Not even on Nickelodeon or Disney Channel. The only ones seeing this will be the fans of the books and the fans of Selena Gomez.
7. Grown Ups- This was THE BEST comedy of the summer. Take that, DM!
8. Eclipse- Better than New Moon but not as good as Twilight. They really should've kept Catherine Hardewike.
9. The Last Airbender- As long as they pick a good release date next time it will debut at #1.
10. Predators FLOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
r u insane inception wont get anywhere close to 50 million
Why are you talking to me? m1 put it at 57 m. And by the way. You are insane. Inception was great. You probably liked DM better.
You have DM dropping 65% because you didn't like it. What credibility do you think you have?
Blah, Blah, Blah
Everbody does that to an extent. My New Year's resolution was to be more objective, but I haven't been able to. Instead I'm not even going to predict for Salt, e.g., because I would crawl over glass to see that movie. My prediction on R&B might be low this week because of my dislike of it's Disney star.
This weekend:
1.Inception-$57.2 (-5%)
2.Salt-$40.2 (N/A)
3.Despicable Me-$19.7 (-40%)
4.Ramona & Beezus-$12.2 (N/A)
5.Toy Story 3-$9.9 (-15%)
6.The Twilight Saga: Eclipse-$8 (-41%)
7.The Sorcerer's Apprentice-$7.4 (-57%)
8.Grown Ups-$5 (-50%)
9.The Last Airbender-$2.1 (-72%)
10.The Kids Are All Right-$1.9 (+90%)
Reviews for Salt are reasonably decent, so it could make a decent amount of money.
I have a feeling that SALT will pull in pretty big numbers. I might even see it even though I don't care too much for it. It's a good way to beat the heat. Terrible name for the movie though.. Really? "Salt"? "Hey, one ticket for salt please". It just sounds dumb..
1. SALT – $50.5 million
2. INCEPTION – $42.1 million
3. DESPICABLE ME – $22.2 million
4. RAMONA & BEEZUS – $17.3 million
5. TOY STORY 3 – $7.0 million
In addition: Sorcerers Apprentice is looooong gone and I haven't seen too many commercials for Ramona, but I have a good feeling that it'll do well.
My choice this weekend is either Inception for a 2nd time or Salt.
Have a fantastic, fun weekend everyone!
:)
1. Inception- Incredible movie, will win because of many people seeing it again and word of mouth- $42.7 million
2. Salt- Looks lousy, and like a female rip-off of bourne. Not a ton of hype either- $33.5 million
3. DM- Great family flick- $30.4 million
4. Ramona and Beezus- Terrible marketing and lousy looking, kids will be more interested in DM-$26.8 million
5. TSA- Not awful, just not good.- $23.2 million
Is your TSA number right? That is higher than it took in last weekend by $5.6M.
Inception 41.5 mil
Salt 32.5
Inception – I wanted to go higher then 40 because that seems way too popular a number. I kinda want to say that it will have an Avatar like drop since it will have such great word of mouth and will be viewed almost as a phenomenon that everyone must see at least twice, but that's dreaming too high. $48mil
Salt – I have no idea how this will turn out, I see it going anywhere from $30 – $65 million. It seems to be a rip off of Bourne with a hint of Mrs. Smith, well only ultimatum made it well past 50mil and both Mr and Mrs Smith, and Wanted just made $50 so I don't see salt topping any of those. $44.6mil
Ramona and Beezus – It's hard to place these since all non animated family films seem to be failing these days. I'm gonna go low on this one with $7.8mil even though it looks better then Furry Vengeance and Marmaduke (which isn't saying much).
'…all non-animated films seem to be failing these days."
cough The Karate Kid cough
Salt -50.2 million
Inception -43.5 million
1.Inception-$38.2
2.Salt-$34.8
3.Despicable Me-$16.7
4. Toy Story 3-$8.8
5. The Sorcerer's Apprentice-$8.1
6. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse-$8
7. Grown Ups-$5.7
8.Ramona & Beezus-$4.8
9.The Last Airbender-$2.2
10.The Kids Are All Right-$1.6
Ramona & Beezus $7 million
Let's be brutally honest about who the audience for this movie is. While they reportedly went out of their way to appeal to all female age groups, the marketing, such as it was, heavily featured the very young Ramona character. So this movie will probably only draw daughters up to 8 years old with their legal guardians.
The director Elizabeth Allen's last effort was Aquamarine. A film with Emma Roberts that seemed made for a 12 year old audience. It opened in 2006 with $2,978 PTA (for $7,482,669). Inflation adjusted for today would be a $3,614 PTA. But if my "for 8 year old girls theory is correct, R&B should only see 2/3 of that PTA for a $6.55 million opening.
How many Selena fans will she be able to bring to the opening weekend? While not zero, fans 8 and under are easily distracted, and almost all older fans will avoid this movie if it's seen as for the youn'uns, so I'm going to say the heavy competition of Toy Story, and Despicable Me will offset most any gain of Selena fans. Let's give it 1/2 million just because zero would be embarrassing.
Side note: The producers of this film actually wanted Miley Cyrus to play Beezus and her little sister, Noah, to play Ramona, but it would have cost them $5 million dollars more, and the studio was adamant about a strict $15 million budget. The studio refusing to spring for an extra $5 million is reflected in the minimal amount spent to promote the movie.
Hopefully, I've kept my personal feelings about Selena out of this analysis.
Before anyone says it, though R&B is based on children's books, so was Aquamarine base on a successful childrens novel.
1. Salt $45M. I was thinking $50 (like Wanted), but I downgraded mainly on the Knight and Day fiasco being in the back of people's heads and Inception stealing some of the audience. I have seen several $38 M estimates, but that feels too low based on the heavy (and good) advertising. I haven't seen tracking estimates, but there are interesting signs … including the TV deal being locked before it is released.
2. Inception. $41.7 M. Total SWAG. I am so glad that the film is doing well, though. It might get studios to think that the general box office audience doesn't go brain dead during the summer months.
3. Despicable Me. $18.0 M. There is no effective change in the competitive kiddie landscape this week so this movie should continue a normal descent.
4. R&B. $9.2M. Like I just said – there is no *effective* change in the competitve kiddie landscape this week.
5. The Sorcerer's Apprentice. $9.1 M. It can't fall much lower than this, can it?
6. Toy Story 3. $7.2M. It has such beautiful legs, doesn't it? Starting to enter into the big fade though. If the trends continue GU will be higher by next weekend.
7. Grown Up. $6.3 M. This movie has had a fantastic hold. We all have movies we like and don't like. I didn't like this one – but life goes on.
7. Eclipse $5.6 M. The vampires are falling quite nicely, thank you. Breaking Dawn, on the other hand, is a big risk given the negative passion some people have concerning that book and double so given the fact they are splitting it across two movies. Summit will finally share some of the love with the actors on Breaking Dawn and that is a good thing. Ms. Meyer's books made the studio – now what can they do with it?
8. The Last Airbender. $3.8 M. Remarkable recovery for the film. Starting to be even respectable. Too bad about the budget though. Fun Fact – The Last Airbender has already made more in the domestic release than either Prince of Persia or Robin Hood did!
9. Predators. $3.2 M. Okay, so I like movies with aliens shooting up the earth people. We all have our quirks.
10. The Karate Kid. $1.5. The real news here is that Salt kicks the crap out of Knight and Day and boots it out of the top 10. Alright, not really news to anyone here. Sort of when you skip pass a light-weight appetizer and get to the main course.
Oh my, Prince of Persia is doing very well in the international market. I wonder if we will hear the Prince of Persia #2 announcement later this fall.
Another reason to see Salt in theaters. The FX channel cuts films to pieces to accomodate their advertising and keep to their schedule. Inception is going to TNT.
Where do you get info regarding which station bought the television rights? Somewhere on its IMDb page?
Didn't think TV licensing was dealt out that fast but one of my professors once said that it's one of the biggest, if not the #1 revenue stream (including box office and DVD/Blu-Ray – I thought he was mad when he said #1).
Deadline Hollywood by Nikki Finke (who is a woman). She indicates that the standard licensee fee is 10%-12% of the movies domestic gross. But I don't know the time period involved. I know some films go to PPV, then pay cable, then regular cable or broadcast. Laremy likes to ignore the home market in terms of a films profitability because there's not much info about it, but some people use a films domestic gross as a rough guide to it's total domestic revenue because the home market is as lucrative as exhibition. This is also why companies with big studios often have a television network: to take one more bite of the apple, that is, to further keep the profits in house, and to have a place to show their films on TV if no one else is interested.
@ely,
websites such as deadline.com and thewrap.com discussed the tv deal
@ely,
don't be too mad at your professor. Or think he was mad. For the major studios (and the wannabees) there is tremendous value in the TV value of their film vault.
1. Inception – 39.3 million
2. Salt – 32.3 million
1. Inception $44.5M I see a pretty strong hold. Not really doing too bad for the week. I see it hitting about $13.8M for Friday.
2. Salt – $38.2M It's got buzz. Should open well. But Inception is certainly strong competition right now.
3. Despicable Me – $23M
4. Ramona and Beezus – $12.3M I don't see too big of numbers here. The factor going into it is mothers who read the books taking their kids. Good family option. Okay numbers.
5. The Sorcerer's Apprentice – $8.9M
My prediction
1. Inception
2. Salt
3. Dispicable Me
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice
5. Ramona and Bezus
6. Toy Story 3
7. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
8. Grown Ups
9. The Last Airbender
10. 4.3.2.1
Normally London gangland movies are hit and miss, could the star power of Emma Roberts push 4.3.2.1 to victory?
The Brits liked it because of Noel Clarke as well as Ben Drew (aka british rapper Plan B).
What is 4321?
It's a British crime thriller that's similar to Noel Clarke's previous films Kidulthood and Adulthood (both were directed by Noel Clarke).
It also has elements of Harry Brown due to it's gritty London street crime background and some of the cast.
All the aformentioned movies feature Ben Drew, aka rapper Plan B, in a major role.
Go onto Youtube and type 4.3.2.1 trailer and you'll understand why.
Hoping Inception repeats (I'm insane for that movie, going a fifth time sometime soon). Came back earlier from Salt's midnight show: very flawed and preposterous but marginally worth seeing just to see Angie sex it up and kick some ass.
I know earlier I said Inception deserved an Avatar-like drop but that was just perfectly timed with the Christmas weekend (m1's got the right idea, but it won't happen).
Still, NGNG: Going with $45.1m for Inception and $37m for Salt.
You have to buy in to a movie. I know I'll like Salt, but Inception is actually more "flawed and preposterous". The mind does not exist in a gestalt state, but is built by different structures in the brain, layer by layer. To buy into Inception, you have to ignore that scientific reality, and just go along with the believability of the movie. Same as with Salt.
You also may be interested that there is not enough information coming into the eye to constuct a picture of the world. So the brain uses learned rules and shortcuts. This is the main reason optical illusions exist. Because the brain guesses wrong.
I know. I took first year Psychology for two semesters and wrote an essay on dreaming, but put the science aside when viewing Inception. Sure if you're a Psychology Ph.D (or act like one), you're going to meticulously undermind how the film works.
You're not supposed to. The producers even acknowledged that if the concept of the film were entirely faithful to the science of dreaming, Nolan wouldn't be able to construct his narrative, nor would it make for an entertaining film. Because it's a science fiction film and Nolan is creating his own world, he's allowed to ignore some of the science. And from what I know and what I've read in articles analysing the psychology of the film in-depth, Nolan takes and acknowledges enough of the science of dreaming before he makes his own rules for Inception.
So I don't buy your comparison and Inception is not "flawed and preposterous". First off, we wouldn't be comparing the two films if they weren't released a week after each other. If anything, YOU started comparing them; I previously made two separate statements on how I loved Inception and had problems with Salt.
If the comparison must be made, you're comparing a science fiction film and a spy thriller. Spectators "buy into" a film when they escape into the film's world, that's a given. Yes, in theory a world where one can extract information out of dreams is more preposterous than a spy thriller that's grounded in reality. Or substitute "extract information out of dreams" for "enter bullet-time and fight a million Agent Smith clones" or for "pick up a light-sabre and defeat a man named Darth Vader" or for "enter an avatar body of an extra-terrestrial race". When you enter the theatre for a science-fiction film, the second you put money down for the ticket, you are buying (if not investing) into the fact that the film can make its own rules/exist in an alternate reality.
*Minor Salt Spoilers*
Meanwhile, spy thrillers (for the most part) are grounded in reality. Salt's action sequences are not particularly memorable but are well-shot and are not over-the-top, so you buy into those scenes. Short of me adding a review to this already long post, what I meant by "flawed and preposterous" was that Salt's story gets too convoluted for its own good. Jolie kicks ass onscreen but you don't sympathize with her or understand her motives because of how the story is told, taking away from the action scenes and her efforts. You don't buy into the story because you're supposed to believe that this woman (in a real world without science fiction elements) ends up at different stages via twists that become more unbelievable and ludicrous. One who has seen the film could argue that not sympathizing with her/not knowing her motives is in fact a strength, but most critics agree that IF Salt works, it's because of Jolie's commitment to the role despite how far-fetched the narrative gets.
The point is one doesn't buy into different genres the same way. Inception is not preposterous because it is a science fiction film that depicts an alternate reality (even if the film is contemporary and not set on an alien planet) that we do not know all the rules of, so who are we to say "that is preposterous"? Salt, however, has its preposterous moments because it is a spy thriller that is grounded in reality. Certain moments in Salt aren't found in a superior spy thriller like the Bourne films (and if they are, they are overlooked/not notable problems).
I guess I can appreciate your overzealous endeavours to impart whatever knowledge you have but to me, your post is borderline condescending. Then again, I don't know how credible such knowledge is when you once said Miley Cyrus would be the next Michael Jackson, if not bigger. Good luck with the Inception-is-a-flawed-film/Salt-will-have-a-better-narrative thing, because I think you're in the minority on that one.
I think we disagree that Spy thrillers are more grounded in reality than Science Fiction. Go back to any movie you've seen involving a bar fight. Real bar fights end up with people dead, hospitalized, or in jail. Once they are over, the people often have permanent disabilities. The stunts in most any action movie would lead to the above mentioned death or disability. A boy of someone I worked with once had his bike taken from him by an adult who hit him in the mouth. He was in the hospital where they had to do all kinds of reconstructive surgery that will never be good as new. There are many, many unrealistic things about Salt. So Spy Thrillers are not, in my opinion, any more realistic than any other movie that requires a suspension of disbelief. A real spy story with would involve unsuspected people observing each other, gathering data, and putting it into a report. That view is why I considered your comment treating Salt materially different than Inception provocative. You've stated your reasons why you think so, now. I don't agree.
I said Miley's legacy in thirty three years would be greater than Michael Jackson's, and I stand by that. Let's look at her movies alone. She has movies on tap for the next three or four years. As she is a workaholic, she will probably have around forty movies made by the time she is fifty, many with music contributed by her. Think Helen Mirren, but more successful. Michael Jackson always wanted to star in a successful movie, but had to die to do it. Talking about her music would be more debatable, but she already sold out London's O2 arena at a greater pace than Michael Jackson did, though Michael was scheduled for eventually many more dates. Miley was also only one of five artist touring North America in the last six months with a ticket average of over $100 dollar.
Get serious. At the age of 17 Michael Jackson could not sell out arenas, and had far fewer hits and albums sold than Miley, even in today's unfriendly album sales environment. Maybe each year we'll do a review to see if Michael Jackson at Miley's age, would have caught up to Miley yet. And since Miley likes the Beatles, I wonder if she'll eventually buy the rights to their music like Michael used to own. Maybe she should buy the rights to John Lennon's solo music, too.
I mean the fourth year of Miley's music caree verses the fourth year of Michaels career.
1. Inception – $37.53 million
2. Salt – $27.5 million
3. Despicable Me – $22.77 million
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice – $10.15 million
5. Ramona and Beezus – $9.78 million
6. Toy Story 3 – $8.36 million
7. Eclipse – $7.07 million
8. Grown Ups – $6.69 million
9. The Last Airbender – $3.97 million
10. Predators – $2.92 million
Laremy I think you're a little high on Ramona & Beezus. I really don't think the market is ripe for another family movie since Toy Story 3 is still going strong, Despicable Me is still raking in the $$ and Sorcerer's Apprentice is only in week 2. Besides, that movie is directed to the little tween girls, so I'm saying no more than 10-12M. I could be wrong though, we'll see.
EW has Salt over Inception 38 vs 35 with Ramona at only 10.
Boxoffice.com has Inception over Salt 41 vs 34.5 and Ramona at 8.
I think there's really only two sets of figures anyone is really interested in this weekend.
Inception and Salt.
Now, I liked Inception but I'm not ready quite yet to call it a masterpiece, and the weekday totals have subtly slipped all week day on day. However, it is a film that many will want to see over and over.
My take will be that Inception should manage at least $40 million. Possibly even as high as $45 million, though I'm certainly convinced it won't remotely have an Avatar style hold.
Which leaves Salt – which I don't expect to be either far behind or far ahead. Wanted seems the best comparison at it was her most recent action film and heavily marketed round her even though she wasnt technically the lead. In Salt she is, but I'm not sure the film will go that high.
I can see it pulling in also around $40 – $45 million with the final outcome requiring finalised figures on Monday.
Though I suspect Inception would edge it.
1 – Inception
2 – Salt
The rest need not apply.
Looks like $42 million for Inception and $40 for Salt is achievable based on first day estimates.
Which would be good results for both films and neither studio can complain.
I hope TS3 beats Twilight and Ramona and Beezus.
And TSA too but that's a big ask.
Saw Inception yesterday matinee (awesome, but I digress), the audience was made up of a lot of older viewers (40 & up), a demographic that normally doesn't rush out to see movies right after opening, Inception will have very long legs as the concept of dreams is something everyone experiences and is curious about (also it's a brilliant film). Salt looks to cater to Hollywood's normal demo (young men), should have a hot start & fade quickly (from the box office & from memory)
A late Salt matinee had mostly couples including one that was aroung 80 years old for some reason. Something I normally only see at arthouse cinemas. Also some people in wheelchairs which is also unusual. I'll be interested to see the age and gender breakdown for Salt. Do we know what it was for Inception?
I see on Box Office Mojo that last weekend, the people who saw Inception were 73% under 34 years old. The people who I saw at Salt were at least 73% OVER 34 years old. Although that was in a downtown theater and also at an inner city mall. No idea what's going on in the Suburbs.
Inception has pulled in ~$100.2 M dollars in seven days. To put things into true perspective, that is almost identical in performance to Alvin and The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel.
Ryan Hoffman's 100% Guaranteed Projections
Inception = 37,923,750
Salt = 37,409,201
Despicable Me = 24,602,745
Ramona and Beezus = 13,332,026
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice = 8,809,811
Twilight Eclipse = 6,495,512
Toy Story 3 = 5,567,200.
Grown Ups = 5,510,524
Ramona and Beezus is the true wildcard. Diary of a Wimpy Kid did 22 mil on a just a couple hundred more theaters with absolutely no stars. I went with essentially the mix of Diary and Nancy Drew. I'm also hoping Toy Story can out perform my number and beat Twilight.