Comments on: Box-Office Oracle: Jul. 17 – Jul. 19, 2009

By: John

John — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 20:09:49 +0000

Well, I have the benefits of friday's box office and it's looking like Harry Potter will slightly outperform it's last movie. That will make Potter fans happy since the total should break $300 million. But why was I off? I think the internet is giving fans of particular movies plenty of advance notice. The trend could be for ALL fan based movies to be somewhat frontloaded; whether the fandom is based on Star Power or Franchise. We'll See.

If something weird happens and The Half Blood Prince is unable to beat The Order of the Phoenix, then I have to blame it on the economy really starting to bite. Concert Tours have already taken a bit of a hit and movies could be next. If people on the fence about seeing a movie decide to save their money it could be a problem. I've seen couples grocery shopping together on friday or saturday night like this was their date!

By: Bustray

Bustray — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 13:45:37 +0000

@John: Actually, if you're not counting the midnight screenings, Harry Potter only dropped 39% from Wednesday to Thursday, while Order of the Phoenix dropped 44% when not counting those numbers. So that's a good sign for Harry Potter 6 going forwards.

By: John

John — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 08:10:18 +0000

I just looked at Harry Potter compared to it's last iteration and the pure math comes out to $99 million over the weekend (call it $100 million.) Reasons to think it might do better: Better Reviews Skimpy Competition Reasons to think it might do worse: The big drop represents some kind of trend My call: $100,000,000

By: The Check Spot

The Check Spot — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:13:38 +0000

Correction: Harry Potter actually dropped from biggest midnight showing to fourth highest opening day.

By: The Check Spot

The Check Spot — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:12:17 +0000

1. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince – $86M I was a bit surprised that it won biggest midnight opening ever only to finish third for biggest opening day ever. I think this film is going to be frontloaded, though I'm expecting a decent 90M opening, which falls into about what Order of the Phoenix did percentage wise compared to its opening day. Though I'm bad with math, so I could be off. Interested to see how holding off a week before IMAX prints are released will figure in to its second weekend.

2. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $15.6M It had a decent run, but I think this film is pretty much done for the summer after this weekend. Going to lose 3-D theaters to G-Force next week, and kids will have a lot of choices with Harry and G-Force, so last decent weekend for these guys.

3. Transformers 2 – $13.5M I just don't have the time or the interest to write out the full title of this monstrosity. May miss $400M for domestic, but it doesn't matter to me anymore. Sad panda over here.

4. Bruno – $10.4M I'm comparing this to last year's Universal post Fourth of July release, Hellboy 2, which collapsed by 71% in its second weekend, and that was a great film. Maybe Universal will have the market on post July 4th releases opening decent then tanking by 65 – 75% in the second weekend.

5. Public Enemies – $8M I think that Michael Mann misfired on the amount spent on the film. I think Universal picked the wrong time to release it. It's a good movie that ended up in the wrong place at the wrong time, kind of like John McClane.

6. The Proposal – $7.5M There is no stopping Sandra Bullock. Been a long time since I've written that phrase down.

7. The Hangover – $7.1M There is no stopping Bradley Cooper. Will I ever write that again?

8. Up – $3M
9. My Sister's Keeper – $2.7M
10. I Love You Beth Cooper – $2.3M

By: athar

athar — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 10:21:58 +0000

1.) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $ 104.5 mil
Yep… In spite of a Wednesday release, i still have this one making 100mil+ for the Weekend. My reason is simple. When a movie like Transformers2 can make 100mil+ in its weekend, then why not a quality movie like HP6

2.) Ice Age 3 – $ 17.5 mil
This is a highly underrated title for me. I think the critics just had tooooo much expectations from this one, which is why they were disappointed with it. But then was it ever meant to be a CLASSIC??… I think not. The people who went to watch this one with no expectations, were entertained(i liked it too)

3.) Transformers ROTF – $ 14.5mil
Disappointed to say the least. I enjoyed Terminator Salvation more than this. I think that is a big enough insult.

4.) Bruno – $13.5 mil
Laremy has got this spot on i guess. It wont do better than this, but it can fall more.

5.) Public Enemies – $ 9.5 mil
The biggest disappointment of the season. Not that it was a bad movie, but just that too much was expected from this one.

6.) The Proposal – $ 7.5 mil
Its time for it to fall now. It would lose its target audience to HP6 this weekend. Still, it has made more than anyone expected. I believe more Bullock movies would be announced soon.

7.) The Hangover – $7.2 mil
8.) Up – $ 3.2 mil
9.) My Sister's Keeper – $ 2.8 mil
10.) I Love You Beth Cooper – $ 2.2 mil

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 07:29:38 +0000

1. Half-Blood Prince – $100.5 million. I do think you are too low on it… I mean, it made $58M Wednesday, and the hardest drop it could face on Thursday is 60%. Which is $23M, and $81-82M total. HP5 made $62M 2-day and $77M after that; Transformers made $89M and $109M respectively. I think HP6 should be no exception and make at least $15-20M more on the 3-day.
2. Ice Age 3 – $15.6 million. Yeah, it fell 34% last weekend, but under the weight of Harry Potter, it'll be lucky not to lose more than 40%.
3. Transformers 2 – $14.1 million. That's 42% drop, same as last week.
4. Bruno – $9.4 million. Yeah, I actually got it falling 69%. It all kinda looks like Watchmen earlier this year – the movie is actually good, but general audiences hate it. I'm afraid this will be the case here, too.
5. Public Enemies – $8.8 million. It is its third weekend already, it doesn't lose much theaters, and Harry Potter isn't exactly its competition. So it should do well.
6. The Hangover – $7.7 million. That's more than I thought it would make last weekend. This movie is f@cking unstoppable.
7. The Proposal – $7.2 million. Harry's gonna hurt it a lil' bit.
8. Up – $3.1 million. It only loses 495 theaters, so it's not gonna lose much.
9. My Sister's Keeper – $2.4 million. I don't think anyone cares about this movie now.
10. I Love You, Beth Cooper – $1.7 million. It's got Harry Potter on its way, it fell 22% from Friday to Saturday (which is not good by any means), but most of all, it's simply very bad movie. So I got it falling 66%.

By: Laremy

Laremy — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 05:46:36 +0000

@Bustray: I could see a $10m swing either way on Potter, so you could end up dead on. I hope it does well, if only because it's a good film.

By: Ted

Ted — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 04:34:27 +0000

@Brad Brevet: Oh man I totally read that too…I thought that was a Brad column…gotta cut back on the tequila. Thanks, right on – you guys are way more on top of it than I give you credit for.

By: JM

JM — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 04:00:28 +0000

I'm afraid "Bruno" will drop more than that… it'll be down at least 60%. I wish such wasn't the case, because I loved it, but you know how U.S. audiences are: uptight about sex. :(

By: Bustray

Bustray — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 00:33:58 +0000

I think that you're a bit low on Potter. Let's not forget that this attracting a lot of major demographics. It first has the fanbase, which will no doubt mostly come for second helpings for the weekend. It also has the family audience, which haven't had anything to see since Ice Age. Then it has all of the girls; I went to a midnight screening Wednesday, and AT LEAST 75% were girls. They haven't had anything for a month, since The Proposal, so it should attract those demographics as well. On top of this, it has all of the teens and young adults who will go just because it's action-packed. Taking all of this into account, I think Harry Potter will come in closer to $100 million for the weekend.

Also, I think you have not taken into consideration "the blockbuster effect". We saw it a few weeks ago, with Transformers 2, and we're bound to see it again. When a big moneymaker comes out, everything else on the market drops more than it usually would. Ergo, I think that pretty much everything will drop over 50%. Weekend predictions:

1. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince- $96.9 million
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown- $13.0 million
3. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen- $10.1 million
4. Bruno- $8.9 million
5. Public Enemies- $6.7 million
6. The Hangover- $5.9 million
7. The Proposal- $5.6 million
8. Up- $2.7 million
9. I Love You, Beth Cooper- $2.3 million
10. My Sister's Keeper- $2.1 million

By: Raichu

Raichu — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 00:10:09 +0000

1. Potter 6= 89.5mil 3-day weekend (173mil 5-day)
2. Ice Age 3= 16.7mil
3. Transformers 2=12.8mil
4. Bruno=10.6mil
5. Public Enemiesl=7.5mil
6. The Proposal=7.1mil
7. The Hangover=6.8mil
8. UP=3.1mil
9. Sisters Keeper=2.5mil
10. Beth Cooper=2.4mil

By: Brad Brevet

Brad Brevet — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 00:08:15 +0000

@Ted: He did a Wednesday prediction. You can read it right here.

By: Ted

Ted — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 00:02:59 +0000

Too high on Beth Cooper…it's gonna get owned, bad word of mouth and Harry Potter. I think it would be lucky to see $2M.

Otherwise I think the predictions look great. Ya know for these Wednesday releases I wouldn't mind seeing the Oracle column before the movie actually gets released, it seems like your cheating a little.