Box-Office Oracle: Jul. 16 – Jul. 18, 2010
Inception will win... but will it be enough to sustain "smart" cinema?
The big story of the weekend is
Inception. Will audiences rally around a two and a half hour think piece? I
loved the film, as
did Brad, but I don't think either of us are certain where the audience is going to come from. Let's break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 4 Weeks In A Row
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| Many of you are continually interested in how the math works around here so I'll take you through my process on Inception. Off we go. First off, I looked at the opening weekend for The Matrix. Yes, they are way different films, but the 1999 mindbender faced a similar opening weekend struggle. An original idea, with no one really "getting it" beforehand, though the critical reviews were solid. I then adjusted for inflation and added in another $3k per theater to reflect the massive marketing effort Warner Bros. has thrown at this blockbuster. Those numbers get you around $16k per theater, though that's not the whole story. IMAX dollars will give Inception a little boost, so if I hit my number dead on it will be because the film slightly underperformed on physical tickets sold. Prediction: $60.67 million |
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A 40 percent drop, only Sorcerer's Apprentice stands in the way but word-of-mouth has been strong here. Which brings us to Nicolas Cage …
Prediction: $34.08 million
I've heard it is pretty good. But that doesn't help the vanilla trailer or the market fatigue potential with Cage. Based on Wednesday's numbers, I see it struggling to find an audience.
Prediction: $21.02 million
Something called Standing Ovation is getting 600 theaters this weekend. Sadly, that's not enough to crack the top ten this weekend so we'll probably never hear about it again.
Prediction: $15.61 million
Facing the biggest drop of the weekend. Because there simply aren't enough fans.
Prediction: $11.88 million
Is Finding Nemo's $867m worldwide Pixar record in jeopardy? Only if the domestic/international multiplier comes in way higher than Toy Story 2.
Prediction: $11.56 million
Still, you have to like the poster where all five guys are on a wild water ride. Someone clearly put in overtime on that.
Prediction: $9.82 million
Losing theaters with a quickness. Not ideal.
Prediction: $6.99 million
It's not dropping much, but less than 2,000 theaters is no way to go through life.
Prediction: $4.81 million
And so we close the book on The Karate Kid, a film that was only bested by Rush Hour within the "martial arts" genre.
Prediction: $2.6 million
How say you? Feeling bold on Inception? Anyone seeing a repeat of July '08 on the horizon? Have I sandbagged The Sorcerer's Apprentice? So many questions, only you can answer!
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My predictions:
1. Inception – 55.0
2. Despicable Me – 33.2
3. The Scorerer's Apprentice – 18.0 / 25.0 (5-day)
4. Toy Story 3 – 15.5
5. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse – 15.0
6. Predators – 9.5
7. Grown Ups – 9.0
8. The Last Airbender – 7.5
9. Knight & Day – 5.0
10. The Karate Kid – 3.2
I'm shooting higher on Inception – 75 million
Inception could land anywhere between 40 and 100 mil. I'm going with 75. Despicable Me holds strong at 39 and Sorcerer's Apprentice comes in with 20.
1.Inception-$67.5 (N/A)
2.Despicable Me-$30.5* (-46%)
3.The Twilight Saga: Eclipse-$16.7 (-47%)
4.The Sorcerer's Apprentice-$14.2 (N/A)
5.Toy Story 3-$16.2 (-23%)
6.Predators-$10.7 (-57%)
7.The Last Airbender-$5.8 (-65%)
8.The Karate Kid-$5 (-7%)
9.Cyrus-$3.5 (+169%)
10.The Girl Who Played With Fire-$1.5 (+67%)
or
10.Standing Ovation-$1.5 (N/A)
P.S. Where have you heard that 'The Sorcerer's Apprentice' is good? Many critics have panned it.
Just curious. Did u fat finger the TSA estimate or did u mean to reverse ts3 and tsa in ur standings?
Change TS3 and TSA.
As of 1 p.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that Inception is responsible for an impressive 52% of daily sales. Its closest competitor is The Sorcerer's Apprentice at 18%. The ticketing site also conducted a buyer survey that reveals some interesting reasons why people are deciding to see Christopher Nolan's latest:
• 93% said they were more intrigued to see Inception because so little had been revealed of the film's plot.
• 82% are interested in seeing Leonardo DiCaprio's performance.
• 81% said they were fans of Christopher Nolan's work.
• 66% said they were tired of the summer sequels and reboots.
• 41% of respondents are female.
that can only be positive and add the fact the inception is trending which analyst aren't including
Honestly i'm have no idea how this movie will perform but it was defintely be intresting
Where do you get these Fandango reports?
http://www.boxofficemagazine.com/news/2010-07-15-inception-surges-on-fandango
For maybe the first time in months, I don't think I have a fucjing clue how this weekend will play out.
That's right…fucjing
:My Predictions:
1. Inception – 55.0 ($14,500 PTA)
2. Despicable Me – 33.0 (-41.5%）
3. The Scorerer's Apprentice – 18.0 / 25.0 (5-day)
4. Toy Story 3 – 15.5 (-26.2%)
5. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse – 15.0 (-52.7%)
6. Predators – 9.5 (-61.6%)
7. Grown Ups – 9.0 (-43.1%)
8. The Last Airbender – 7.5 (-54.9%)
9. Knight & Day – 5.0 (-35.2%)
10.The Karate Kid – 3.2 (-40.4%)
I'm hoping Inception does really well, but seriously this movie is hard to predict.
I'm going big on this one, I think people are desperate for something different and that Inception is coming out at a perfect time right now.
1. Inception- $87.7 million
2. Despicable Me- $33.4 million
3. The Sorcerer's Apprentice- $20.2 million
4. Eclipse- $17.1 million
5. Toy Story 3- $15.8 million
1. Inception – $79.6 million
2. Despicable Me – $31.25 million
3. The Sorcerer’s Apprentice – $21.53 million
4. Eclipse – $14.41 million
5. Toy Story 3 – $12.46 million
6. Predators – $11.02 million
7. Grown Ups – $9.48 million
8. The Last Airbender – $8.02 million
9. Knight & Day – $4.1 million
10. The Karate Kid – $2.6 million
Sure, I know everything about how tracking puts Inception at about $50M, and I toyed with the idea of predicting $57M a little, but screw it. I've always had faith in this movie and been predicting an OW north of $70M for months now. I don't care, if this ship is going down in flames, then I'm going down with it.
Let's go crazy. Inception: $85 million
Musn't be afraid to dream a little bigger?
My thought process exactly.
Inception – 90.2M
Sorcerers Apprentice – 18.7M
1. Inception – $67.3 Million
2. Despicable Me – $33.9 Million
3. The Sorcerer's Apprentice – $17.9 Million
4. TTS: Eclipse – $16.4 Million
5. Toy Story 3 – $15.2 Million
Inception- 78.3M
The phrase "From the director of 'The Dark Knight'" will put plenty of people in the seats. I don't see TDK numbers here, but I can see a solid 70 million here. I, for one, could care less what all the "Nolan is a hack, The Kids Are Alright is the only movie you ever need to see ever." critics say. I am ready to see this movie!!!
Some critics hate films just because they were made by a studio with a budget. Bit they forget that Nolan was one of those indie directors they championed. The successful indie directors go one to make Batman and Spider-Man.
I understand that many people want to see the movie because of Nolan's TDK credentials. But did that help the Prestige for the OW boxoffice?
I think its unfair to compare The Prestige to Inception for a couple of reasons.
1. Release date (October versus July)
2. Budgets in marketing and production ($35 million versus $180 million on production alone.)
3. Popularity of Nolan as a brand name (BB was great but not nearly the juggernaut that was the TDK)
Essentially were dealing with a entirely different beast here, we all know Nolan is talented the test here is after gaining studio trust can he become a name the way Lucas, Spielberg or Cameron is.
1. Inception- Looks awesome. Will definitely see it.
2. The Sorcerers Apprentice- I had a great time. I definitely recommend it. B+/A-
3. Despicable Me- Does not deserve the money. It sucked.
4. Eclipse- It will make big bucks no matter what.
5. Toy Story 3- Don't see all the hype. It was just good.
WOW… u should not be on this website if you think TOY STORY 3 was "just good" and you recommend SORCERERS APPRENTICE
WOW…u should not be on this website if you think The Last Song was "just good" and you recommend Toy Story. (ironically making some kind of point)
@MCMF: Please take your own advice, regardless of whether you're being sarcastic or not.
Why, is my Avatar bothering you? Is Ms. Cyrus' success bothering you. Miley has movies in developement for the next four years. Get used to it.
1.Inception: 68.2mil. It might be too smart for some. I expect this to be somewhat like Blade Runner which is a great sci-fi but often overlooked because it's not as accessible as the Star Wars, Trek(2009), etc.
2.Despicable Me: 33mil. Great year for animation (thus far) both critically (save for Shrek 4) and in the box office.
3.Sorceror's Apprentice: 19.3mil (26.5mil 5-day). Another Bruckheimer underperformer. He's probably been knocked down a couple of pegs in the Disney totem pole with Pixar and Depp/Burton at the top.
4.Eclipse: 15.5mil. Holding on well compared to New Moon. I think it's just living off repeat viewings primarily from fangirls right now. Should have enough to rear its head over 300mil.
5.Toy Story 3: 13.1mil. Again, it has been a banner year for animation. Hope Tangled (aka Rapunzel) and Megamind can keep it up later this year. It's no longer a question if this passes Nemo's 867mil worlwide take, but a question of when. It's making a killing overseas (It's pushing 55mil already in Mexico in 3wks, and 30mil in 2wks in Aus), and more bigger markets are just about to come into play (Fra, UK, Spa, Ger, etc..). The question really is whether it will join the exclusive 1billion worldwide club for which it has a very good chance.
6.Predators: 10.8mil.
That really depends on how Toy Story 3 does overseas when it loses the 3d screens to both The Last Airbender and Cats & Dogs 2.
I'm starting to have the sinking feeling that if I want live action family films, I'm going to have to support Standing Ovation by seeing it in the theater. But why is a tween musical rated PG?
Everytime I want to predict Sorcerer's Apprentice low, someone starts talking about how they want to see it. I'll say $25 million with a $31 million 5-day.
Basically Standing Ovation's target audience is more akin to the fanbase of Glee.
1. Inception- $92.3 million
2. Despicable Me- $33.9 million
3. Twilight: Eclipse- $19.7 million
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice- $16.6 million
5. Toy Story 3- $12.4 million
Inception – $83.5 Million.
I think it was in the Curse of the Black Pearl commentary where Jerry Bruckheimer stated that he thought that prognosticators were being cruel when they set high expectations for the Pirates movie. I believe his point was that if you set high expectations, and the movie doesn't meet those, even if you make good box office, people will complain.
So I am going to publish my lower value for Inception in the hopes that the movie greatly exceeds it.
1. Inception. $59M. It deserves more. One more thing, I am downgrading the other adult titles this week. This audience has to come from somewhere.
2. Despicable Me. $33.8M. They must be throwing MASSIVE parties over at Universal if the budget estimates are correct. Congrats again.
3. Eclipse. $14.2M. I don't think Inception will have a tremendous impact on this audience. Okay, I made this comment very late on last Sunday's Wrap so I will do it again because I thought it funny the first time. Furry Vengeance (Summitt) is pulling in more dollars right now than Jonah Hex! Important lesson learned for Summitt executives: if you are going to make a movie you know will bomb at the box office – make it cheaply.
4. Toy Story 3. $13.6. That is right, I am predicting that TS3 disses stablemate TSA. Just because I think it would be funny. Imagine the internal Pixar emails right now about how they are carrying the movie side of the business….
5. The Sorcerer's Apprentice. $12.7M How low can I go? Okay, the opening day took in under 4 Million. Last week Laremy asked if the family dollar was tired. I don't think it is tired – but I do believe it is spread way too thin. Too many better options in the marketplace. Despicable Me (not Inception) is the enemy here. Moving the release date up to avoid it and giving away free tickets isn't going to help.
6. Predator. $9.8M. Heavy fall here due to the #1. RR knows how to make movies though – make 'em cheap, make 'em good enough and make a profit. Can't wait for Machete!!!
7. Grown Ups. $8.7M. C'mon already. Looks like it may end-up with Click-like numbers.
8. The Last Airbender. $7.5M. Talk about a movie that took in more revenue than it deserved. They are going break even on this one with the international market and ancillary revenue.
9. Knight and Day. $3.9M. Could go lower. Decent legs. Would have been a winner if it cost the $45 M it should have.
10. Karate Kid. $2.6M. Last week in the top ten. Congrats to everyone who signed on for this risky movie.
That's it. See you at Inception!!!
An interesting thing I just noticed is that Sorcerors Apprentice is NOT even getting any time at all to screen at Disney's flagship El Capitan Theater in Hollywood. All of Disney's high profile summer films get showtimes there every summer but not this one.
Inception – $82 million. My only call this weekend.
Is losing 398 theaters on week 3 that unusual (like The Last Airbender)? I know that week 3 is where the theaters dump and I knew the movie wasn't going to hold-on or gain, but the 398 didn't look too bad to me.
Am I mistaken on that?
It's definitely bleeding theaters more than Toy Story 3 who is only losing 315 going into weekend 4. I guess exhibitors are making more money with TS3 since it's proving to have the longevity.
Oops, my mistake. Toy Story 3 headed into its 5th weekend.
I gotta put my take in here…
Inception: 56.7
I really want it to go higher but I see good legs in here, not a good start.
Very late here but…..
I've always had for some reason around $70 million in my head for Inception but the tracking has indicated much less than that with about $55-ish.
Therefore I'm going to roughly split the difference and say somewhere around $62.5 million for the three day. With the caveat that I hope it goes a good deal higher.
1 – Inception $62.5 million
2 – Despicable Me $38 million
3 – Sorcerer's Apprentice $22 million (for the five days)
4 – Eclipse $16 million
5 – Toy Story 3 $14.5 million (another low drop I think this weekend)
6 – Predators $9.9 million
7 – Grown Ups $7.5 million
8 – The Last Airbender $7.5 million
9 – Knight & Day $4.0 million
10 – The Karate Kid $2.2 million
But how many times have films doubled up on expectations? Often. I've gotta think that Inception will do better than 2012. I'll say $77 million.
I'd guess about as often as some have failed to meet expectations. Which has been known to happen from time to time!
Inception is about the hardest film to call this year so far, so yep, you're guess may well prove more accurate than mine when numbers start to roll in.
That's an understatement.
2012 came out in November which many think is too late for that kind of blockbuster as opposed to November being too early to release Disney's A Christmas Carol.
I could totally see INCEPTION underperforming and getting a disappointing $56 million, but I'm gonna go ahead and bet bigger again, and go with a higher, more optimistic number.
1. INCEPTION – $85.2 million
2. DESPICABLE ME – $38.9 million
3. SORCERERS APPRENTICE – $19.7 million
4. ECLIPSE – $15.0 million
5. PREDATORS – $9.8 million
My choice is of course INCEPTION!
Have a fun, brilliant weekend everybody!
:)
You forgot TOY STORY 3
Not if they're just giving a Top 5 prediction.
the toys will remain in the top 5. Predators will drop hard
I'm way late because I just got back from a midnight show of Inception. Without giving anything away, I can say without hesitation that it's the best movie I've seen this year and that I've truly never seen anything like it. I'll probably go back later this weekend.
1. Inception, $56 million. I'm going with a $15,000 PTA, which is a somewhat higher than Shutter Island, which I feel is a decent comparison. I rounded up due to more marketing and it being summer. The Matrix would also be a good comparison but I'd have to adjust it's PTA up for inflation, which I just plain don't feel like doing at 5 in the morning. Also, if anyone's interested in an audience report, I saw it in an 850 seat theatre that was between 2/3 and 3/4 full. The audience cheered at the end and everyone was buzzing walking out; I heard one guy say he would be back tomorrow night. So a pretty positive opinion from my showing I'd say. Everyone knows this will need terrific legs to make the big bucks, so hopefully it will have them. All that being said, I think there's a huge range of possibilities with this and nothing from $35 to $80 million would shock me.
2. Despicable Me, $35 million. A 40% drop rounded back up a bit. A very nice success story for Universal (they desperately needed one).
3. The Sorcerer's Apprentice, $21 million. I'm agreeing with Laremy on the $6,000 PTA. As I said last week, I think the family dollar is finally burned out and this will suffer for it.
4. Toy Story 3, $14 million. It'll cross $365 million this weekend, is $400 still in play? I'd say quite possibly, and beg forgiveness for doubting it after two 50% drops.
5. Eclipse, $13 million. New Moon fell 65% its third weekend, so really predicting just under a 60% drop might be generous.
6. Predators, $10 million. Slightly better than the average horror drop (a little under 60%).
7. The Last Airbender, $8.4 million. Maybe it only falls 50% this weekend. Or maybe I'm being too generous.
8. Grown Ups, $7 million. Back to 50% drops this weekend? Seriously, how the hell did this only fall 14% last weekend?
9. Knight and Day, $3.5 million. Same as above, but substitute a 26% drop last weekend
10. The Karate Kid, $3.1 million.
Ian, earlier this summer you suggested that audiences don't really have the patience any more for movies that were 2 1/2 hours long. I just was wondering if you thought that still is true. If so, Is Inception then too long for the masses or the exception that proves the rule?
Don't underestimate Inception. IMDB boards are a good indicator of how well a film will do at the box office based on how frequently people post on the board. Even though it's only 7:50 AM where I am now, those boards are really busy, which is definitely a good sign.
I don't think it's a question of over or under-estimation.
I think it's just proving really, really hard to narrow down to a consistent figure. Guesstimates so far are very varied.
However, it won't be long til finding out time.
1. Inception – $75.9 million
2. Despicable Me – $27.5 million
3. The Sorcerer’s Apprentice – $23.4 million
4. Eclipse – $12.4 million
5. Toy Story 3 – $10.1 million
6. Predators – $9.8 million
7. Grown Ups – $9.2 million
8. The Last Airbender – $6.8 million
9. Knight & Day – $4.1 million
10. The Karate Kid – $2.1 million
11. Cyrus – $1.3
12. The girl who played with Fire – $.9
1. INCEPTION- 93.1 mil
-I have nothing to loose here so I am going big. I will not be suprised if it opens lower. I just think A LOT of people have been seeing this trailer and wondering about it and want to see it. TDK crowd wants something else from Nolan before the third BATMAN and I think they will check this out. Again, I will not be suprised if I am dead wrong I just think a lot of people can't wait for this film. Even if it opens soft, it will likely have HUGE legs. WOM is already fantastic.
2. DESPICABLE ME- 33.2 mil
-I am happy this film is doing well. It is so funny and a good movie. I really hope that this is the start of a franchise. I think 200 mil is not out of reach at all.
3. THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE- 21.7 mil
-I think this had the same problem as KNIGHT & DAY. I had NO idea this came out on Wed. until yesterday when numbers came out. I think people will check this out but with INCEPTION in its way it may have a problem finding an audience. But I do hear it is a fun film so, that is a shame.
4. ECLIPSE- 16.2 mil
-300 mil is not out of reach. I have no doubt that this will surpass NEW MOON and cross 300 mil by its end of its run.
5. TOY STORY 3- 15.1 mil
- WHOOOHOOOOO!!!! SO HAPPY FOR THIS FILM. 400 mil is not out of reach!!! GO TOY STORY!!
Inception 87.3 Mil
FYI:
Inception has already banked in 3 mil from Midnight showings. Thats really good for this film.
1. Inception = $56.5 Million
2. Despicable Me = $30.3 Million
3. The Sorcerer's Apprentice = $22.2 Million
4. Twilight: Eclipse = $16.2 Million
5. Toy Story 3 = $12.15 Million
6. Grown Ups = $10.8 Million
7. Predators = $9.9 Million
8. The Last Airbender = $7.4 Million
Since absolutely nobody is taking the low end of the scale, I'll cast an admittedly late vote for Inception only coming in at $42m. Yeah, it made $3m at midnight shows, but I think that was the Nolan-is-God fanbase that couldn't wait for this film and they'll burn off quickly Friday.
I'm also not sure if the "too smart for moviegoers" should really stick if it doesn't do well at the box office. People online seemed to make up their minds that this was the most amazing experience one could have at the movies long before it came out. As of now, it's only a 84% at Rotten Tomatoes, and an even weaker 76% among "top critics". It's also at a 76 on Metacritic… so among some fairly astute movie viewers, it's far from a masterpiece.
Ultimately, though, I'm much like everyone else in not having a solid clue how it will do this weekend… even this late to the party.
Inception: $42m
Sorcerer's Apprentice: $35m (Hey, I'm already out on a limb with the extreme Inception guess, let's go the other direction for SA and say that families unexpectedly start showing up on Saturday after a weak start.)
Despicable Me: $31m
Eclipse: $15m
Toy Story 3: $14m
Here's what, ultimately, makes Inception such a difficult movie to determine:
When TDK was coming out, I heard a lot of predictions of a $70-$80 million opening weekend. We all know how that turned out. The thing with TDK, however, wasn't so much Nolan's name at all. It was Heath's performance, which everyone seemed to be raving about. While Inception does boast a truly original idea, I think it may push the more average movie goer away. Regardless, I'm gonna go with $73.4m.
Inception 82.1 million
Inception great!!it will make more than 90 Millions sure! Tanks God eclipse is DOWN NOW,YES!!! I can't stand that rob twisted face and the twilight saga!!!