Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 7 – Jan. 9, 2011
True Grit over Little Fockers this weekend. No, seriously. We mean it this time!
The last film to win three weekends in a row? Inception. I've met Inception, partied with Inception, and debated Inception on the meaning of life. Little Fockers? You're no Inception. So I've got to predict against you, one last time, with feeling. Who is with me?
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
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| True Grit has won Monday through Wednesday at the box office, a feat it didn't pull off last week. So there's hope. I'm dipping True Grit 30 percent, where Little Fockers will slip 45 percent. Doesn't seem too implausible, does it? Sure, Fockers has a 550 theater count advantage, but they are both rated PG-13, so one isn't automatically more "family" friendly. The box office as a whole should come in around $105 – $110m for the top twelve, a massive dip from last year's Avatar-fueled mayhem, but still up from the opening weekends of December. As for the financial prospects of True Grit, they are very rosy. The budget was $38m, and it will cross the $100m in box office revenue threshold as you're reading this. Nice to see The Coen Bros. finally catching on, even if it took 20 years. Prediction: $17.319 million |
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The budget here was a more concerning $100m, but this one will cross $200m in worldwide cume this weekend so the outlook isn't exactly dire. Does that mean we're looking at a Look Who's Little Fockering Now sort of situation? Probably.
Prediction: $14.666 million
I saw a clip of this last night and was appalled. It looks just tuuuurrrrible. But we're all aware of that, because it's been delayed in a very big way. Still, I'm anxious to hear what you guys think of it … if you dare. I know Brad is daring in only a few hours…
Prediction: $11.264 million
$170m budget. Which leads me to ask "Where's the frickin' money at Lebowski??"
Prediction: $10.58 million
An absolutely bonkers viewing experience. Brad is gonna murder it, but I think I might go with a B-, if only because I couldn't predict or understand any of what was happening on screen.
Prediction: $7.12 million
Gaining 58 theaters this weekend. Quality is job one for those fine establishments.
Prediction: $6.735 million
Should do well once extra the special three disc Blu-ray hits shelves, especially if they can get Russell to yell at people on the commentary!
Prediction: $6.487 million
Do we want to see another Narnia? I think I'm around 60/40 in favor at this point.
Prediction: $6.361 million
This movie is a money maker. Aronofsky gets topline talent on the cheap, which makes him invaluable to the studio system.
Prediction: $6.069 million
Seven weekends in the top ten is exactly three more than The Princess and the Frog managed. Result!
Prediction: $6.062 million
That's all I've got. How say you? Do you take Fockers to three-peat (H/T Pat Riley)? Or will new (old Western) blood triumph? And how about those newcomers? Comment early, comment often.
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"Little Fockers" was tuuurrible.
I was surprised and saddened by how awful it was. If there's any justice in the world – TRUE GRIT will win the weekend over the Fockfaces. True Grit didn't impress me, but it was good and definitely much better than those Fockers.
Actually, if there's any justice in the world, THE FIGHTER will win number 1, 'cause that movie was phenomenal.
1. TRUE GRIT – $17.5 million
2. LITTLE FOCKERS – $14.6 million
3. COUNTRY STRONG – $10.1 million
4. TRON LEGACY – $10.3 million
5. KING'S SPEECH – $7.0 million
I'm saving my cash and ploppin' it down for GREEN HORNET next weekend: that movie is SO LUCKY – There's absolutely nothin' eventful out right now, movie-wise, so I think it's gonna hit big. I'm callin it: $40+ million opening weekend. THE DILEMMA gets $25+ million for a wonderfully solid MLK weekend.
Have a terrific weekend, folks.
:)
Country Strong has to be better than Season of the Witch. At least the former has some good music to offer.
I think Season Of The Witch is going to end up with about 12-13 million…It will be interesting to see if it will have any legs, and the budget has been reported to be at 40million, so thats a good thing for them i guess
All the ads for "Country Strong" and it did not even get 1,500 theaters? I have to ask is her song being played on country music stations? Could surprise in midwest/south I guess.
I have to agree with Chuck, saving money for Green Hornet, just hoping it can get even average reviews.
1. True Grit- $18.1 million
2. Little Fockers-$13.7 million
3. Tron Legacy- $10.4 million
4. Country Strong- $8.7 million
5. Season of The Witch- $7.4 million
1. True Grit-$15 million
2. Little Fockers-$14 million
3. Season of the Witch-$12 million
4. Country Strong-$11 million
5. Tron Legacy-$10 million
6. The Fighter-$7 million
7. King's Speech-$6 million
8. Black Swan-$6 million
9. Tangled-$6 million
10.Chronicles of Narnia-$5 million
I think there's a chance that Country Strong could upset here, but Grit seems like the safest bet right now. Black Swan seems to have peaked at the moment, but it's likley to tick back up in a few weeks when awards start getting announced.
Social Network is also getting a limited release in 600 or 700 theaters I believe. Out of curiousty, Laremy, what's your prediction for how well it could perform this weekend? I imagine that maybe 1-1.5 million would be tops.
Yeah, I looked at it, but I couldn't figure more than 2.4m max, and your 1.1m is far more likely.
It will gradually crawl it's way to 100 million stateside lol. Not a bad accomplishment for a film of it's kind. It's rare that a film like that even gets made anymore
Black Swan holding strong 7.25 mill. Last week I was off by 115k, how bout you Laremy? lol
you've been off by 30% every week on this movie, sometimes high, sometimes low…..
Yeah, rapid changes in theater counts, a strange time of year, and no real precedent make it a tough film to call every week. And that's why we play the games! :)
This is a doozy of a weekend numbers-wise. Last weekend everything from 4-11 was fairly close, which means that they'll all be even closer this weekend. I've got two ties in my predictions, including one for tenth, so I've got eleven films listed.
1. True Grit, $17 million.
2. Little Fockers, $15.4 million.
3. Tron Legacy, $11.7 million.
4. Season of the Witch, $8.4 million. This looks absolutely dreadful.
5. Tangled, $6.8 million.
6. The Fighter, $6.5 million.
7. Black Swan, $6.1 million.
7. The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, $6.1 million.
9. Yogi Bear, $6 million.
10. Country Strong, $5.7 million. I think the South will support this fairly well. This is the same $4,000 PTA that Crazy Heart had when it went wide, and is there really any chance this will do better than that?
10. The King's Speech, $5.7 million.
season of the witch-7 million
country strong-10 million
I certainly want to see another Chronicles of Narnia, if only because it's "The Silver Chair," which has always been my favorite after the first. As for the movies, the first was and still is amazing, even after repeated viewings. The other two I've only seen once. The second had an amazing first half but an overloaded second half that took the edge off my desire to see it again (though I feel I may anyway… soon… sometime). The third was a bit disappointing and not very emotionally engaging, but it wasn't a total loss, and it was definitely entertaining in parts. I'd give a fourth installment a good chance.
Nice. Finally, my site and yours' agree at the top this week.
1. True Grit – 20 million
2. Little Fockers – 17 million
3. Tron Legacy – 12 million
4. Country Strong – 7.5 million
5. Season of the Witch – 7 million
Most people will probably hate Season of The Witch but I know I'll love it even if it is a bad movie.
I definitely want to see at least one more Narnia film, "The Silver Chair." Here we have a promise of the white witch possibly having a huge role, suggestions about being like her, Eustace becoming the main character, and Prince Caspian's son being kidnapped. I still say they could do on a 100-110 million dollar budget easy.
I agree 100& on both films
True Grit – $18.3mil
Meet the Fockers – $15.5mil
Season of the Witch – $9.7mil
and Country Strong – $6.7mil
True Grit – 16.6M
Fockers – 13.5M
Tron – 11M
Season of the Witch – 7.6M
—————————
Country Strong – 5.3M
I have a theory that the fourth Narnia film (if it ever gets made), will be released in the Easter holiday.
Here it is
The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe was performing like The Fast and the Furious (albiet the former had a built in audience), Prince Caspian was performing like 2 Fast 2 Furious and Dawn Treader seems to be performing like Tokyo Drift.
What are the chances that Silver Chair gets an Eater holiday release and make the Narnia franchise the comeback kid. That certainly helped the Fast and Furious franchise in 2009.
Little Fockers 17.3m
True Grit 14.4m
TRON Legacy 11m
Season of the Witch 8m
We're pretty much right there with you, except we don't think Season of the Witch is going to break the $10M mark.
Our predictions:
1. TRUE GRIT – $17M
2. Little Fockers – $14M
3. Tron Legacy – $11M
4. Season of the Witch – $9M,
5. Country Strong – $7M.