Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 29 – Jan. 31, 2010
COMMENTS
Avatar again, but it's gonna be close...
#1 movie predicted correctly: 13 Weeks in a Row
1. Avatar
Seven straight weekends! I've put it at a 22 percent dip, actually worse than last weekend. I think Edge of Darkness cuts into it around four percent. Still, it will hit $2b at the box office, and that's not too shabby, is it?
Estimate: $26.7 million
I have it opening ten percent lower than Taken, per theater. I attribute this partly to competition — Taken opened against two tomato cans, and partly to Mel Gibson himself. There has to be a little reluctance on the part of audiences. Does he still have it?
I'm predicting enough people adopt a cautious posture on this one to doom it to 2nd place, though it could very easily take Friday night (a la Book of Eli).
Estimate: $21.5 million
3. When in Rome
Why? Why do they keep releasing films like this? And don't give me that "because people see them" argument. That doesn't make it right. I'm ranking it above Leap Year because people seem to like Kristen Bell and it's received heavier marketing levels.
Estimate: $10.6 million
4. Legion
The reports out of this one were dismal. Interesting concept, no follow through. Thus, I'm dipping it 52 percent. Word of mouth isn't going to support it.
Estimate: $8.4 million
That lofty $80m production budget still looms. It will need an international push, but The Road didn't get one… so why would Eli?
Estimate: $7.6 million
It gains a theater this weekend. That's right, some theater owner out there said "Tooth Fairy? Give me some of THAT!"
Estimate: $6.7 million
As I'm writing, I haven't seen an updated theater count on Lovely Bones, so buyer beware.
Estimate: $4.0 million
The sequel has been fast tracked. And at almost $400m worldwide, why not?
Remember when we thought this had a chance to knock off Avatar? That seems like a long time ago now, doesn't it?
Estimate: $3.7 million
Sundance note: I didn't really like the film HappyThankYouPleaseMore. However, there was a singer featured named JayMay that was pretty great. If you like acoustic gals, such as Jenny Lewis, then you'll enjoy her work.
Estimate: $3.6 million
I know we deride Jason Lee for taking the paycheck here. But if someone offered you $5m for a few days work, would you turn it down? Probably not.
Estimate: $3.2 million
Now then, are you worried about my streak? This feels like the weekend it could all go wrong, if Avatar somehow falls to normal bleeds and Edge of Darkness captures the public's imagination. But will you predict it? And am I too bullish or bearish on When in Rome? Comment early, comment often!
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Ugh, I do it every week where I look at tracking but this time, I'm going from my gut.
1. Avatar – $28M And my gut says give me some more Avatar.
2. Edge of Darkness – $26.3M It comes close. I think it's got the Taken vibe mixed with the Mel Gibson vibe mixed with the positive reviews vibe.
3. The Book of Eli – $8.6M I think we'll be seeing quite a few drops this weekend.
4. Tooth Fairy – $8.5M Doesn't have too bad a decline only because of a lack of kids product out there right now.
5. When in Rome – $7.9 Laremy, it's from "the studio that brought you The Proposal." With ads like that, how could it not succeed.
6. Legion – $7M Heard a ton of bad word of mouth from this one, so huge drops likely.
7. It's Complicated – $4.5M People love Meryl right now.
8. The Lovely Bones – $4.4M Can't figure out what happened here. Huge drops.
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks – $4.1M Slight drop because of the lacking in kids product thing from earlier.
10. Sherlock Holmes – $4M With Sherlock and Iron Man, is Downey our generation's Harrison Ford when it comes to franchises. Needs to take over a franchise for that to be complete.
Kristen Bell has been doing some interesting advertising for it via Twitter. Firstly she said if we watch it there's a better chance a Veronica Mars Movie will be made (tempting) and when people replied she said that the people watching Edge of Darkness would be the people who wont get laid afterwards (and to be fair, if they did, it'd probably end with the words Mel!!!)
Seems to be in a pretty desperate shape.
Is this Avatars last week?
Avatar will wil again. Edge of Darkness will be second, and the chances of passing Avatar are almost 0. Still, a opening over $20M is almost garantee. Legion will fall almost 70%. The word of mouth is terrible. When in Rome will bomb.
My predictions:
1: Avatar – $28.6M
2: Edge of Darkness – $20.3M
3: When in Rome – $9.7M
4: The Book of Eli – $8.8M
5: The Tooth Fairy – $8.3M
Next Weekend Early Predicitons: Avatar will win again, easily.
1.Edge of Darkness-$32.4 (N/A)-it has the popularity and 3,000 theaters…
2.Avatar-$20 (-44%)-…but will EOD's critical reception cause a plummet or hold for this?
3.The Book of Eli-$9.8 (-42%)-this will slip out faster on post-post-MLK weekend.
4.The Tooth Fairy-$8.7 (-40%)-this needs no explanation.
5.Legion-$6* (-67%)-apparently critics CAN manipulate box office.
6.When in Rome-$5.2 (N/A)-I didn't know theater counts could be this shocking.
7.The Lovely Bones-$5 (-43%)-after the buzz has faded, it's now suffering.
8.Sherlock Holmes-$4.7 (-34%)-this slipped faster than I expected.
9.Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel-$3.5 (-46%)-see #7.
10.Extraordinary Measures-$2.3 (-67%)-see #3. Or watch it and bring tissues.
Bonus Prediction:
12.Crazy Heart-$1.7 (+21%)-Jeff Bridges is this year's Mickey Rourke; as awards increase, BO goes up.
1.) Edge Of Darkness – $ 27.5 mil
2.) Avatar – $ 25 mil
3.) When In Rome – $ 11 mil
4.) The Book Of Eli – $ 8.5 mil
5.) The Tooth Fairy – $ 8 mil
6.) Legion – $ 7 mil
7.) The Lovely Bones – $ 4.8 mil
8.) Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 – $ 4.2 mil
9.) Sherlock Holmes – $ 3.8 mil
10.) Extraordinary Measures – $ 3.5 mil
Does a win for Avatar this week pretty much guarantee an 8th week as well considering that no other big movies come out until the 12th with Wolfman?
Nope, Wolfman ain't gonna pick up the win on the 12th, I mean, no one even knows a single thing about it in my place. Expect Percy Jackson to take that slot.
I guess 8 weeks is still possible, but after that, It's gonna grab 4th.
This Week:
Avatar – 27 Mil
Edge of Darkness – 24 Mil
When In Rome – 11 Mil
Feb 12:
Percy Jackson – 44 Mil
The Wolfman – 34 Mil
Valentine's Day – 28 Mil
1. Avatar……………….28.9
2. Edge of Darkness….17.2
3. When in Rome……..10.3
4. Book of Eli……………8.6
5. Legion………………..7.2
6. Tooth Fairy………….6.4
7. It's Complicated…….4.4
8. Lovely Bones………..4.3
9. Sherlock Holmes…….4.1
10. Alvin & Chips……….3.8
11. Blind Side…………..3.5
12. Extra Measures…….3.1
not particularly interesting… although my Avatar-Darkness gap is much bigger than Laremy's… and his Complicated drop is much higher than mine, I don't know why.
Next week sounds like a good time to start dropping Avatar faster.
People seem to like Kristen Bell? What planet do you live on? Don't you mean Hollywood and fanboy geeks seem to LOVE Kristen Bell so she keeps getting work for some unknown reason.
Veronica Mars managed to be the lowest rated show on TV when there were 5 networks and somehow stayed on the air. She then went to Heroes, a TV show that wouldn't be on the air if it wasn't on NBC. The network who somehow managed to get their lowest viewership since 1949 in the final week of the May sweeps last year. I won't even start on the few films she's appeared in.
Kristin Bell is Box Office and ratings poison. Worst of all she has NO female fan base and she's starring in a romantic comedy. FAIL! Maybe 6 mil and straight to DVD per screen numbers.
@Bill: True, but I think you forget that Josh Duhamel is also in the movie.
We'll see.
Me thinks someone has a crush on Kristen Bell – and he knows he stands a ZERO percent chance in HE** to ever catch her eye. Upset there much Bill?
Veronica Mars rocked – and we'll leave it at that!
Oh yeah….Avatar – $22.6
Avatar $31.0 million down 11.2% What do you guys know about Avatar that I don't?
Edge of Darkness $23 million
It's going to be easy to be off on this movie, because more people
than one might suspect are saying they will see it simply to support
Mel Gibson. I've been drafted to be part of that crowd.
When in Rome $5.5 million
At least this movie has a decent title, and I'm looking forward to When
In Paris, When in Rio, and When in Darjeeling. But as silly as Leap
Year looked, this film is much, much worse. We will discover this
weekend what rock bottom for a wide release romantic comedy looks like.
I'm thinking it looks like $2,250 PTA.
Update: When in Rome is getting a surge in presales, but I'm going to be stubborn.
I don't know why… but I feel like When In Rome won't bomb. it wont do great numbers but it has a lot of marketing and stars out there.
1. Edge of Darkness- 27.8 mil.
It does have an R-RATING, which will hurt it a tad but I think people who have already seen Avatar are looking for something new.
2. Avatar- 24.7 mil.
Boy this movie is doing fantastic. I am still unsure whether it will beat out Edge Of Darkness at the first spot.
3. When In Rome- 19.7 mil.
People like rom-comedy's. Its rated PG-13. Good/ Big stars, large marketing…yeah.
4. Book of Eli- 7.3 mil-
Edge of Darkness will hurt this one.
5. Legion- 6.8
6. Tooth Fairy- 6.3 mil.
7. The Lovely Bones- 4.2 mil.
8. Sherlock Holmes- 3.7
9. It's Complicated- 3.2
10. Alvin and the Chipmunks- 2.8
what do you think?
It does seem there's nothing to watch this week for frequent moviegoers. Will we see a surge to the new releases? Art house films? DVD rentals?
@maja: Originally, that's what I thought; that Avatar would have clear sailing until the 12th. But I've seen more exitement for Dear John than I would have thought. I'm still looking into it, but there's a chance that Nicholas Sparks films are in the middle of a stealth reboot, replacing older leading men with young "hunks" that could draw in a lot more younger women. There is already high awareness of Nicholas Sparks films among younger women because of A Walk to Remember.
1. Avatar–$29.7mil. 15% drop sounds about right. For some reason, last Sunday had horrible drops all around the board. So if its Friday-to-Friday drop is 20% (which is what it's looking to be about now), then its weekend drop will be even lower.
2. Edge of Darkness–$20.2mil. BOM audience polls suggest people are not as excited for this as they were for "Taken." And, while its RT percentage is about the same (mixed, at just under 60%), Taken was PG-13 and more available to less discriminating teens; will the R-rated crowd be as nondiscriminating, or will they see the mixed reviews and decide to go see Avatar again?
3. When in Rome–$10.6mil. It'll do better than "New in Town," which opened on the same frame last year. And it'll do better than "Leap Year." But it's still no hit.
4. The Book of Eli–$8.8mil.
5. The Tooth Fairy–$8.2mil. A 40% dip sounds about right. No opening competition, and it's not like this film has a long way to fall.
6. Legion (2010)–$6.7mil. At least a 60% drop. At LEAST. Why? Well, Daybreakers dropped 65% in its second weekend, probably thanks to the R-rated "Book of Eli" that opened directly in its demographic. And this weekend, "Edge of Darkness" opening directly into Legion's demographic. What's more, Legion has a much more negative response than Daybreakers. -60% is a given.
7. The Lovely Bones–$5.3mil. Well, it's adding 68 theaters this weekend. I foresee a decent hold.
8. It's Complicated–$4.5mil. Tiny theater drop, no opening competition (hardly any competition at all, actually). -20%, or maybe better.
9. Sherlock Holmes–$4.2mil. The Globes bump was last week. This drop will be a bit more normal, probably in the high 30's or low 40's.
10. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel–$4.0mil. Will it pass its predecessor? Each weekend requires shorter legs to achieve the goal, so I'd say probably yes, but we can't be sure just yet.
1. Avatar—$27.9mil
2. Edge of Darkness—$23.4mil
3. Book of Eli—$9.8mil
4. The Tooth Fairy—$7.5mil
5. When in Rome—$6.9mil
Even if Avatar doesn't win this weekend, it should end up winning next weekend if Edge of Darkness has the relatively big drops I expect it too.
Feb. 12 weekend:
1. Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief—$36.2mil
2. Valentines Day—$32.9mil
3. The Wolfman—$23.6mil
@The Check Spot: It looks like Furry Vengeance with Brendon Fraser blinked, and moved from April 2 to get away from Clash of the Titans, and the massive amount of kid's entertainment on or before April 2. It's moved to April 30 opposite Freddy Kreuger, which makes more sense, really. But right now, there are still five new wide releases scheduled for Easter. Repo Men should bail like you said. Or will Tyler Perry blink?
I'm seeing a really close weekend.
Avatar – 28.7M
Edge of Darkness – 27.2M
When in Rome – 14M
Book of Eli – 8.5M
Tooth Fairy – 6.5M
Next weekend I see Avatar winning, even if it loses this weekend.
Isn't it time you changed the graphic at the top of the page to reflect Avatar's status?
[1] Avatar $29M
[2] Darkness $15M
[3] Rome $14M
[4] Fairy $9M
[5] Eli $8M
[6] Legion $7M
[7] Bones $6M
[8] Sherlock $4.3M
[9] Complicated $4.2M
[10] Chipmunks $4.1M
1. Avatar………………………………22.3
2. Edge of Darkness…………………20.0
3. When In Rome……………………12.3
4. The Book of Eli……………………..8.7
5. Legion………………………………..7.5
6. The Tooth Fairy…………………….6.9
7. The Lovely Bones…………………..5.3
8. Sherlock Holmes…………………….2.9
9. It's Complicated…………………….2.7
10. Alvin & the Chipmunks 2…………2.5
Overall, it's gonna be a pretty slow weekend. I actually think $20 million is a bit high for Ole Mel; however, I've been constantly amazed at what this guy can do. He beat the odds with two films that were subtitled for Pete's sake. Avatar still wins Weekend #7 hands down. Can it do one more after that? Who knows.
1. Avatar – $28.2 million
2. Edge of Darkness – $25.9 million
3. When in Rome – $10.4 million
4. The Book of Eli – $8.9 million
5. The Tooth Fairy – $8.4 million
6. Legion – $6.6 million
7. The Lovely Bones – $5.0 million
8. Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 – $4.6 million
9. Sherlock Holmes – $4.5 million
10. It's Complicated – $4.4 million
@Brian: Noooo, don't do it!
@mfan: Surprisingly, Hot Tub Time Machine moved into the 26th spot. Nothing else has moved from the April 2. Didn't realize that was Easter Weekend.
BTW, It's Complicated just crossed the $100 million mark!!! Yay!
you people seems to forget about paris with love next weekend.its getting great buzz and it will open with at least 30 milion,mark my words
@Mystery: Wolfman will definetly top Valentines Day as anticipation is very high ever since it was postponed from October.
@Jezza: I don't know why, but I see Wolfman being a tad on the low side. Also, Laremy, there is a really interesting forum at BOM that has proof that GWTW isn't the highest grossing film adjusted for inflation. It beats any other proof that I've seen.
http://boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewtopic.htm?t=82668&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0&sid=f47878d65381b32f8d3773f326e1f018
@stanisic: Two words. Superbowl Sunday.
@Brian: I have been, those are domestic totals.