Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 22 – Jan. 24, 2010
COMMENTS
Avatar joins Titanic, winning its sixth straight weekend.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 12 Weeks in a Row
1. Avatar
I'm dipping it 20 percent. That's more than last week, slightly counter-intuitive given the film has been out six weeks, but this one has to revert to a normal trendline sooner or later. Plus, 20 percent isn't exactly a massive drop, is it? Even given the potential of a Golden Globe bump?
Estimate: $31.3 million
Only three films will have over 3,000 theaters this weekend. This is one of them. I see it making Pacifier-like numbers, though maybe a little smaller, because the trailer looks absolutely brutal.
Estimate: $21.0 million
3. Legion
This feels like a release that will double its earnings internationally, just like Constantine. But only getting 2,400 theaters means it won't be able to mount a serious charge for the top spot.
Estimate: $19.0 million
I liked it. Is that why I'm dropping it only 44 percent? Yeah. That and the lack of new release competition, although I suppose Legion would be considered in the same demo.
Estimate: $18.4 million
The people seeing this have to be doing it for the laughs. I mean, the trailer… yikes.
Estimate: $11.8 million
It should follow a normal dip now that it's wide. So far, $28m worldwide on a production budget of $65m isn't ideal.
Estimate: $9.4 million
It will out-earn the original this weekend. I suppose we haven't learned our lessons, have we?
Estimate: $7.4 million
I'm tempted to think they'll receive a little Golden Globe bump due to Downey Jr.'s win. But it almost seemed like Downey himself won the award, outside of the film.
Estimate: $5.4 million
Meryl Streep was another instance of a person winning, kinda sorta overlooking the performance.
Estimate: $5.3 million
Has anyone seen a production budget here? It had to have been somewhat hefty, I can't think that Jackie Chan signed on for peanuts.
Estimate: $4.7 million
So what do you think? Anyone out there gutsy enough to pick The Tooth Fairy over Avatar… and mean it? Weigh in below.
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Avatar will win again easily. I see all the 3 new releases bomb.
My Prediction:
1. Avatar – $31.2M
2. The Book of Eli – $15.6M
3. The Tooth Fairy – $15.5M
4. Legion – $10.2M
5. The Lovely Bones – $8.9M
Next Weekend Early Prediction: Avatar – $23.5M; Edge of Darkness – $23.6M.
1.Avatar-$30.4 (-26%)-will match a record w/Titanic.
2.The Book of Eli-$25.2* (-20%)-not much of a drop.
3.The Tooth Fairy-$15.7 (N/A)-2 words: we'll see…
4.Legion-$10.2 (N/A)-let's assemble a legion that WON'T watch this film.
5.The Lovely Bones-$10.2 (-40%)-if there is a tie, it will be between 2 films in close relation.
6.Sherlock Holmes-$10 (+2%)-The Hurt Locker=0, SH=1 Golden Globe.
7.Extraordinary Measures-$7.4 (N/A)-depends on how good it is.
8.Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel-$8.5 (-26%)-people are DONE w/it already.
9.It's Complicated-$6.6 (-14%)-I guess the Golden Globes won't help after all.
10.Up in the Air-$6.2 (+15%)-if it drops at all, it has no chance of hitting $100 million.
Bonus Prediction:
11.The Blind Side-$4.3 (-2%)-I would give it an increase, but that makes no sense, and you know why…
1. Avatar – $31.5M Seems everyone is going within this range.
2. Legion – $18.7M Last I heard this was tracking best of the new releases.
3. The Book of Eli – $14.9M Losing a bit to Legion
4. The Tooth Fairy – $13.2M I'm hoping beyond hope that the trailer is what did it in.
5. Extraordinary Measures – $13.0M Could shift, since it's tracking second best of new releases.
6. The Lovely Bones – $10.1M May not see too bad a drop, girls are liking it, smart marketing move by Paramount.
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks – $7.2M
8. The Blind Side – $7.1M Golden Globe win gives it a bump.
9. Sherlock Holmes – $6.9M
10. It's Complicated – $5.6M
1. Avatar —————- 31.4
2. Book of Eli ———- 19.6
3. Legion —————- 13.4
4. Tooth Ache ——— 12.4
5. Lovely Bones ——– 12.3
6. Extra Melodrama — 11.0
7. Alvin and Rodents — 7.7
8. Spy Next Door ——- 6.4
9. Sherlock Holmes —– 5.6
10. It's Complicated —– 5.3
11. Blind Side ————– 4.1
12. Up in the Air ———- 3.4
wow, you're right, there is NOT much variation in the Avatar predictions. sheesh. looks like I'm on the low side of the new releases, though
i wish it weren't true…but i can see tooth fairy doing in the $20-$25 range. i think it may even challenge for top spot, with the demo it's going after. i'll go out on a limb.
1. tooth fairy…………25.6
2. avatar………………25.1
3. book of eli…………18.6
4. legion………………17.0
5. lovely bones……….9.9
buster, I love your name, but regardless of how the Tooth Fairy does, I think you are very low on Avatar… it hasn't dropped that much since its release!
Avatar: 39.4 mil
Legion: 22.3 mil
The Book of Eli: 19.7 mil
The Lovely Bones: 10.1 mil
The Tooth Fairy: 9.4 mil
Could Julie Andrews be a draw for Tooth Fairy? She is loved, and does not do much non-voice acting. It should beat Legion (not screened for critics is never a good sign), Avatar might be to much to overtake.
1. Avatar 33.8 m I'm dropping it 21%
2. The Tooth Fairy 18.3 Warning, I frequently overestimate kid's movies
3. Legion 16 For frequent movie goers who have already seen Denzel's movie.
4. Book of Eli 14.8 A little bit front loaded?
The Lovely Bones 7.5 Only so much marketing can do
The Blind Side 6.6 Small bounce?
Extraordinary Measures 6.4 Bad miscasting – a comedian in a dying childs movie? Some people just love these actors, though, so we'll see
@steve: I belive none of this weekend's new releases were screened for critics in advance.
My weekend estimates:
[1] Avatar $35M
[2] Tooth Fairy $22M
[3] Extraordinary Measures $20M
[4] Book of Eli $17M
[5] Lovely Bones $12M
[6] Legion $9M
[7] Alvin $8M
[8] Sherlock $7M
[9] Complicated $5M
[10] Spy Next Door $5M
1. Avatar–$32.3mil. Another small drop. 6 weeks at #1 seems a lock now. Can it do 7? 8?
2. The Tooth Fairy–$16.0mil. BOM polls show that audiences are far less interested in seeing this than they were in other The Rock kiddie fare like "The Game Plan." I originally thought it would end up in the mid to high 20's, but not anymore.
3. The Book of Eli–$15.2. Its drop will be slightly more than 50%.
4. Legion (2010)–$13.3mil. Biblically-inspired R-rated movies are rarely a good idea at the box office. You don't know who the hell it's aimed at. The secular audiences think the Christian elements are silly, and the Christian audiences don't like the R rating.
5. The Lovely Bones–$9.4mil. Its drop will be less than 50%. The female audiences seemed to really like this movie. Nice marketing save, Paramount. With a good overseas gross, this movie could possibly make back its budget in theaters.
6. Extraordinary Measures–$9.3mil. A month ago people were saying this could be a feel-good movie "like The Blind Side." The difference? Well, sports appeal is always higher than cancer appeal, for one. Also, 50% difference on the RT tomatometer.
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel–$6.5mil
8. Sherlock Holmes–$5.4mil
9. The Spy Next Door–$5.3mil. I put the drop in the mid-40's. Its weekday holds haven't been as good as Paul Blart, and its word-of-mouth has been horrendous.
10. It's Complicated–$5.1mil.
@JM: re Extraordinary Measures being like The Blind Side. That was just the marketing people saying that, and the people who actually listened to them. The movies are light years apart in many, many ways.
1 Avatar $33.6
2 The Tooth Fairy $20.2
3 The Book of Eli $18.1
4 Legion (2010) $14.7
5 The Lovely Bones $10.5
6 Extraordinary Measures $9.6
7 Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 $7.7
8 Sherlock Holmes $6.3
9 It's Complicated $5.6
10 The Spy Next Door $5.1
1. Avatar – $30.1 million
2. The Tooth Fairy – $16.7 million
3. The Book of Eli – $16.0 million
4. Extraordinary Measures – $11.4 million
5. The Lovely Bones – $9.4 million
6. Legion – $9.4 million
7. Alvin 2 – $7.7 million
8. Sherlock Holmes – $6.2 million
9. It’s Complicated – $5.8 million
10. The Spy Next Door – $5.4 million
1. Avatar—————————–30.9
2. The Book of Eli—————–17.3
3. Legion—————————–16.0
4. The Tooth Fairy—————-13.2
5. Extraordinary Measures——-10.9
6. The Lovely Bones—————-9.8
7. Sherlock Holmes——————7.8
8. Alvin & the Chipmunks———-7.5
9. It's Complicated——————-6.2
10. The Blind Side——————-4.0
Well, as of today, Avatar needs only $85 million to top Titanic as the #1 Highest grossing film of all time. After this weekend, it'll need only another $50 million to do the trick. Unless Mel Gibson can pull some great reviews for what looks to another by-the-numbers police thriller with Edge Of Darkness, I really don't see Avatar being challenged next weekend for the number one slot either.
Also, considering that the only film opening next weekend with any kind of legs is Dear John, I think it's safe to assume that Avatar could possible go on to win its 7th & 8th weekend in a row, before being demolished in the wake of Wolfman & Percy Jackson on February 12.
Correction: Dear John will opening the weekend after Edge of Darkness (February 5); on that weekend, I look for Avatar to win weekend #8 (though I'm not brave enough to call it).
@The Jackal: We'll wait for more signs, but I thought Dear John would totally bomb based on it's downbeat story. But they are giving away free tickets to it at my local grocery store if you buy certain DVD's. It's been doing well on internet search lists, too. Do you think the movie theaters count these coupons as normal sales with the normal studio split?
@The Jackal: It will NOT pull a Blind Side. It is too frontloaded and has to EVENTUALLY drop off.
@The Jackal: Valentine's Day comes out then, too.
It is PG-13 and could easily hit 40 million that weekend. Or is that too high?
@The Jackal: I think you can call it. For Avatar week 7, there is no real buzz for Edge of Darkness, and even if When in Rome can somehow pull in $10,000 PTA instead of $7 or $8, it doesn't have enough theaters. For Avatar week 8, Nicholas Sparks films (Dear John) only pull in $5 or $6 thousand PTA (unless they have a big star who can pull in $10,000 PTA by herself), and From Paris with Love has an obscure title, hasn't really been marketed well, and is an unknown action film going up against the Superbowl. I have to admit the trailer looks good, though.
P.S. The only thing that could possibly be different about Dear John is that I think it's the first time a Nicholas Sparks film has actually featured what teenage girls, all girls really, would call "a hunk".
@Laremy: So far, it looks as if only The Check Spot, m1 and myself were attune enough to realize that Jackie Chan's kiddie flick The Spy Next wouldn't be able to crack the top 10 this week. I know the final numbers aren't in, but based on Friday's numbers, it looks like The Blind Side beat it out.
Also, not to brag, but I did have The Blind Side at #10 with a take of $4.0 million – which will (when the final numbers are released) probably be closest to it's actual take (which probably fall just shy of $4.0 million).
@Dan Tralder: Good call on The Blind Side – Were we the only ones to see this happening?
@m1: I said that it looks like AVATAR will be able to beat Edge Of Darkness next weekend (January 29-31) for its 7th consecutive weekend and has a good chance of beating out Dear John & From Paris With Love the next weekend (February 5-7) for its 8th consecutive win.
I've no doubt that the weekend of February 12-14 will see The Wolfman, Percy Jackson and Valentine's Day handily destroying James Cameron's epic.
Though it's 6, 7 or 8 weekend win streak will be mighty impressive (especially if it can add #1 Domestic Box Office & #1 Worldwide Box Office to its growing list of accolades), it still pales in comparison to TITANIC's 15 Consecutive #1 weekends.
@The Jackal: Oh. Okay. Huge misunderstanding. EOD's chances of being #1 next weekend depend on its critical reception, theater count, and popularity. It has the popularity-obviously-and its theater count is at or above 3,000, so its CR better be high.