Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 2 – Jan. 4, 2009
COMMENTS
All these predictions are dead on... or your money back!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row
There aren't any new releases, so this weekend is all about how much each film will fall… and how much the box office should do overall. I'm betting that the top twelve don't quite hit $100m. Historically the first weekend of the year is pretty soft.
Estimate: $18.5 million
Of course last weekend shouldn't have hit $180m historically either… but it did. Still, no new releases is the thing I'm keying on. Hollywood is taking the weekend off. Audiences probably will too.
Estimate: $14.7 million
Button has a great shot this weekend to finish #2 or #1. But the mixed reviews and running time have to catch up to it at some point.
Estimate: $14.6 million
4. Valkyrie
They are still pouring ad dollars into this one. Tom C. can't say they shortchanged him on budget. Not enough people interested in the topic is all.
Estimate: $11.5 million
5. Yes Man
I'll entirely pissed about Zooey D. getting engaged. What the heck? How are we supposed to run away together now?
Estimate: $8.4 million
6. Seven Pounds
This was the one film that theater counts weren't in for yet… unless they've pulled it out of theaters already? Nah, I'll just assume Box Office Mojo is taking the day off. Like everyone else (besides me) in the world.
Estimate: $6.7 million
We're going to need to think of a new way to have fun around here in Jan/Feb. Have you seen the film schedule? Mall Cop? Bride Wars? And those are the highlights!
Estimate: $4.8 million
This projection means that around half a million people will accidentally see this movie this weekend.
Estimate: $4.1 million
9. Doubt
Doubt actually finished in the top ten last weekend, just not for the four day numbers. I'm seeing about $2908 per theater in this film's future.
Estimate: $3.7 million
10. The Reader
Little known fact: this is up to almost 400 theaters this weekend, almost like 10% of a new release. That minor effort will be just enough to boost it in to the top ten.
Estimate: $3.4 million
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Movies to get excited about in Jan, let's see, Gran Torino, Underworld 3, and the Unborn is all I can force myself with.
Laremy, since the next two weekends suck, whats your feeling for the take of The Dark Knight re-issue?
What about 'Notorious', 'Gran Torino', 'The Wrestler', 'Revolutionary Road', and 'The Dark Knight'?
Underworld 3: Rise Of The Lycans, The Unborn, and in February Friday The 13th and Push (the last which might be good or really bad).
Otherwise, the two months are quiet. But with Underworld 3 I think that's about all of the good movies I can take in that period of time.
The summer was way too crowded and we all know it.
There's no reason these months get ignored; why a summer blockbuster season? Why not make the whole year a blockbuster season?
the curious case of benjamin button is the greatest movie in the box office top 10, infact like it's said in many reviews and critics it's one of the best movies of the decade. so my top 10 box office is like this—–1. the c. c. of b. button 2. valkyrie( wow just wow– really gr8 movie, highly suspenceful, just gr8) 3. body of lies( i still can't believe this movie didn't get what it should get, it's simply the 2nd gr8est movie of 2008, leonardo dicaprio's acting skill is imaginably magnificent) 4. yes man( very very very funny) 5. the reader can some1 help me with the other 5? thank you
I think Dark Knight is Jan 23rd, which means it will have to contend with Underworld, Defiance, Mall Cop, and Bloody Valentine (though all but Underworld open week before). However, Dark Knight can't really get above $15m in my opinion… just because of the time of year. Lots of bills come due around then.
RevRoad won't make money, though it's great. The Wrestler will probably make $50m total, not bad for a small budget film.
The Wrestler was made for a reported 4 mil, so it would be a great success if it made 50.
Looking at the release schedule for the year, the only thing that interests me in the next two months is Coraline. Hopefully this will give me the chance to get through all the nominated films by Oscar night… I'm guessing that the lack of really compelling new releases will give the buzzworthy films serious legs well into February.