Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 16 – Jan. 18, 2009
COMMENTS
It's actually an interesting weekend at the box office...
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row
For the record these are three day projections. It's a very tough call at the top spot with three potential winners. I'm taking Blart because it's rated PG and looks dumb. That should be enough to get it the top slot.
Estimate: $19.5 million
2. Notorious
Here's the movie I hope wins as I've seen it and liked it. They aren't screening My Bloody Valentine so I have no clue there. I put Notorious down for a number in between Get Rich or Die Tryin' and 8 Mile. My only concern is that it doesn't have enough awareness to hit this amount.
Estimate: $18.4 million
3. Gran Torino
It will regress 44.5%. But I still give everyone involved credit for taking even one weekend at the box office.
Estimate: $16.4 million
It could very well win the weekend, but I think Unborn might have stole a little steam. I've got it making $6200 per theater, if it had 3,000 theaters it would definitely trouble me more.
Estimate: $14.3 million
I put this at half of Chihuahua because it doesn't have enough marketing dollars. That and Blart's PG rating make it less likely to open large.
Estimate: $11.4 million
6. Bride Wars
I'm only dinging it 51.5%, mostly because the new releases are all in different genres. Unless you count My Bloody Valentine 3-D as competition… which isn't completely crazy I guess.
Estimate: $10.2 million
7. The Unborn
The first rule of box office they teach you is that horror opens strong and fades swiftly. Thus, The Unborn will drop 54% at the very least this weekend.
Estimate: $9.1 million
8. Defiance
What an odd release schedule this one has had. They opened early in NYC/LA to try and get awards buzz. Then, whiffing on that, they are expanding to 1500 theaters this weekend. Clever!
Estimate: $5.7 million
Two dog movies in the the top ten. That really sums up the movie-going experience these days, doesn't it?
Estimate: $5.5 million
The million dollar question is this: Will Last Chance Harvey's new theaters help it grab this spot? Or will Slumdog's Globes carry the day? My only concern is that the people who watch The Golden Globes have already seen Slumdog Millionaire. So it's quite the social experiment at the bottom of the top ten this weekend.
Estimate: $5.1 million
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With the extra money from 3D, and the novelty of the first horror movie in the new 3D, those might be packed. KC Star gave it 3 stars, so it can't be too bad. I am curious what violence and nudity are like in 3D.
i wish defiance would win but i know there is no way that will happen! as a fan of king of queens, i am looking forward to paul blart. i dont know that i care too much about what bloody valentine does but i dont know how well it will do because of the "R' rating (what with the 3-d boobs).
I'm with Box Office Guru with putting My Bloody Valentine at number one. It's gotten some shockingly good reviews, which will pull in more of an audience that usually goes for horror, and the extra cash from 3D theatres will inflate its grosses nicely. I'd also peg Gran Torino for a smaller drop, which is in keeping with Eastwood's most recent films, 20-30% at most.
Looks like Bloody will finish 5th, behind even Hotel for Dogs. I've got the order nailed but came in low on the dollars. People were again hungry for movies.