Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 15 – Jan. 17, 2010
Another easy win for Avatar? That's what the math suggests.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 11 Weeks in a Row
Before we get started I'd like you to take notice of the new Oracle graphic that has now moved Avatar into the fifth slot all-time at the domestic box-office. It actually just missed out on the fourth spot as of the publishing of today's article as it sits just over $200,000 shy of Shrek 2 at the moment. However, by the end of the weekend it should be #3 all-time, passing Star Wars.
Also note, these predictions are for the three-day weekend, not the four-day. Now let's get into it.
Avatar has made it pretty easy on me, no? It just keeps going. This will be the fifth weekend in a row for the juggernaut, joining The Sixth Sense, a film that also accomplished the feat over a holiday weekend. Are you already thinking about the last film to win six weekends in row? Why, that would be a little film called Titanic.
Estimate: $37.5 million
I liked it, but I'm not sure the trailers are a clear indication of what this film is. As such, it may have a tough time building strength because the initial audience's expectations will be confounded. It's a good film, an interesting film, but probably more intellectual than actioner.
Estimate: $28.5 million
I haven't seen much in the way of marketing, but I don't watch many shows in the intended demo. I know it's seen a fair share of advertising around Rope, so perhaps y'all have some intelligence on this one. Is Lionsgate pushing it hard enough or leaving it for dead?
Estimate: $13.7 million
Hey, what are you doing here? That's right, Lovely Bones gets up to 2,400 theaters this weekend, long after the buzz has faded. Bad reviews and odd placement probably mean we won't be talking about this much after this weekend.
Estimate: $12.6 million
The biggest dropper of last weekend, it will only be the second biggest drop of this weekend. Who will be tops on that ignominious list? Read on…
Estimate: $8.2 million
$315m worldwide cume on a budget of $75m. If you run a studio, you'll take that every day of the week.
Estimate: $7.9 million
It could get a push from The Golden Globes, but not until after Sunday night.
Estimate: $7.2 million
Ding! The biggest drop of the weekend, again following the pattern of 30 Days of Night. A 55 to 57 percent drop is a pretty sure thing here.
Estimate: $6.8 million
Another film that will receive some free publicity from the Hollywood Foreign Press.
Estimate: $5.2 million
Theoretically, Leap Year could snag this spot. But we'll go with quality.
Estimate: $4.8 million
How say you? Am I too low on Avatar, even only dipping it 25 percent? Will Book of Eli jump up and surprise us? Is my streak in any jeopardy at all? Comment away, your opinion is valued and encouraged.
Avatar for five weekends? Yes. Book of Eli could still have a great result, and i am seeing The Lovely Bones opening over $20M in the 4-day weekend.
My 3-day/4-day predicitons:
1: Avatar – $39.4M / $50.5M
2: The Book of Eli – $29.7M / $34.9M
3: The Lovely Bones – $18.1M / $22.7M
4: The Spy Next Door – $15.3M / $20.6M
5: Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 – $10.2M / $13.0M
Next weekend early predicitons: Avatar to win 6 weekends in-a-row. Legion and The Tooth Fairy will bomb!
1.) Avatar – $ 40 mil
2.) The Book Of Eli – $ 32 mil
3.) The Lovely Bones – $ 14 mil
4.) The Spy Next Door – $ 11 mil
5.) Sherlock Holmes – $ 9.5 mil
6.) Daybreakers – $ 8 mil
7.) Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 – $ 7 mil
8.) Its Complicated – $ 6.7 mil
9.) Up in the Air – $ 5.5 mil
10.) The Blind Side – $ 5 mil
11.) Youth in Revolt – $ 4.5 mil
12.) Leap Year – $ 4.2 mil
I have no knowledge whatsoever but I think Book of Eli runs lower, say 25 or so. I just think its not getting that much hype, but Denzel always scores in the +$20 range. Its one of the few movies I see ads for since they run during football or other sports programming.
I just gotta ask something Avatar has made over 1 billion how much of it's share has gone to 20th century fox or till now how much did they get and what was the profit on this for example they would get somewhere around 750 million that's say's 250 million profit considering 500 budget.I wanna know at what point of percentage did 20th century earned on this movie or they still have to wait for the blu ray dvd .
avatar 35 million
book of eli 25 million
the real question is how many weeks can avatar go number 1?
what movies gonna stop it,it wont be legion or tooth fairy
perhaps edge of darkness, i doubt it can make it all the way to alice in wonderland, but who knows…
This weekend, I'm using my rare #10-spot-split:
1.The Book of Eli-$38.2 (N/A)-looks fun; getting enough theaters.
2.Avatar-$30.4 (-38%)-another film is dropping the same.
3.The Lovely Bones-$10.9 (+31,043%)-keep in mind: this is a mature film.
4.Sherlock Holmes-$10.5 (-37%)-three words: Golden Globe weekend.
5.The Spy Next Door-$7.6 (N/A)-the reviews agree with me.
6.Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel-$7.6 (-53%)-three movies are dropping 53%.
7.Daybreakers-$7.1* (-53%)-this was a given considering it's a horror film.
8.It's Complicated-$6.2 (-44%)-as mentioned last week, it's not yet a failure.
9.The Blind Side-$5.4 (-31%)-notice how this and UITA are dropping close.
10.Leap Year-$4.3 (-53%)-or will YIR hold better than I'm expecting?
or
10. Up in the Air-$4.4 (-38%)-read #2; don't worry, it'll get an increase next weekend.
I think you are going too low on avatar because it is MLK weekend and a lot of kids don't have school on friday.
@Anonymous: These are three-day predictions.
The Book of Eli will overtake Avatar due to the fact Book of Eli is fresh and people aer looking forward to it. It's also the first fanboy movie of 2010.
IMDB did a poll about the most anticipated movies of 2010 and Book of Eli was 10th. All but one of the movies that was ahead of it is released during the summer and Thanksgiving holidays.
The most anticipated movie according that poll, which is quite a shock, comes out March 5th.
@Jezza: Let me guess. It's Alice in Wonderland.
BTW, if Nine sweeps the Golden Globes, I'm bumping it into the top 10 for next week's predictions.
1. Avatar ———————- 34.2
2. Book of Eli—————— 20.9
3. Spy Next Door ———– 14.3
4. Lovely Bones ————- 10.2
5. Alvin & Rodents ———- 8.9
6. Sherlock Holmes ——— 8.2
7. Daybreakers ————— 7.8
8. It's Complicated ———- 6.4
9. Up in the Air ————– 5.7
10. Leap Year —————- 5.3
11. Blind Side —————– 3.9
12. Youth in Revolt ——— 3.7
"James Cameron's sci-fi extravaganza continues to dominate the world of online ticket sales. As of 2 p.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that Avatar is responsible for a whopping 72 percent of daily sales, while MovieTickets.com is reporting 71 percent. The Book of Eli jumped to seven percent on Fandango, and five percent on MovieTickets. The Lovely Bones boasts five percent on Fandango, and three percent on MovieTickets. The Spy Next Door has failed to find a spot among the top five sellers on either site."
1. Avatar: 36.8mil 3-day/ 48mil 4-day (It's 5 straight weeks folks, everything points to it)
2. Eli: 27.2mil 3-day/ 34.2mil 4-day (It'll be no.2 and open to typical Denzel nos.)
As I've repeatedly claimed, Avatar will become the first flick in a decade to win 5 weekends in a row. I believe its domestic total will fall short of Titanic's incredible haul, but it will still blow the mind settling somewhere around $537.5 million. I'm still confident that it will defeat Titanic's worldwide take of $1.8 billion by creaking to a halt just under $2.0 billion.
Next Week's Top 10:
1. Avatar——————————–30.0
2. The Book of Eli——————-21.9
3. The Lovely Bones—————12.1
4. Sherlock Holmes—————––8.7
5. Alvin & the Chipmunks 2——-8.5
6. It's Complicated——————-8.4
7. The Blind Side———————6.0
8. Daybreakers————————-5.9
9. Up In The Air———————–5.8
10. Princess & the Frog————-3.2
Sorry. I'm amending my list. The Spy Next Door will edge out Princess and the Frog for the #10 Spot.
10. The Spy Next Door————————-5.7
@Laremy Legel: If Avatar wins the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama), how big of a boost will it see at the box office? And if it wins big this weekend, do you honestly think it will be a legitimate contender against Tooth Fairy & Legion?
1. Avatar–$40.9mil. I'm dipping it less than 20%. We might even see another drop only in the single digits.
2. The Book of Eli–$22.1mil. I'm not feeling the buzz as much as others seem to. It'll do pretty well, but I'm not expecting a huge hit.
3. The Lovely Bones–$17.1mil. Don't underestimate this film, now! There are many people still interested in seeing it… mostly female, admittedly. It seems like Paramount's idea to shift from awards marketing to teenager girl marketing has worked. I expect it to do pretty well this weekend. Even if it doesn't make all its money back in theaters, it won't be a bomb.
4. The Spy Next Door–$13.2mil. I hope I'm too high on this one. It's the only new family release, but at the same time it has been getting rock bottom reviews, and the marketing push doesn't seem that strong.
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel–$9.4mil.
6. Sherlock Holmes–$9.2mil.
7. Daybreakers–$7.9mil. Most movies that open the weekend before MLK weekend hold at least decently. The slightly lower Sunday drop will help this one keep at least half its business.
8. It's Complicated–$6.9mil.
9. The Blind Side–$5.8mil.
10. Leap Year–$5.3mil.
Since I was the first commenter to predict Avatar would do $1.5 billion, challenging Titanic (Nov 27 Oracle), I feel I have some credibility to burn, and here goes…
Avatar $52.3 Hold plus a bump on sunday due to 4 day weekend. If this movie were steadily dropping, I would think $43.5 (13% drop), but there is a chance it will plateau, like Titanic. We will know after this weekend, unless it drops less than 13%. Then we still won't be sure. I know this is speculative.
The Book of Eli $29 This movie was as anticipated as Daybreakers ($15m), plus has $9 million worth of star power. I've decided that top tier talent can bring in $4,500 PTA without any help from the film, and second tier talent can bring in $3,500. This does not include the very top hollywood superstars who are huge draws by themselves, but you can count those on one hand.
The Spy Next Door $18 The film will bring in $13.1m from it's amazing star power (for kids). Though many think that's all it can bring in, the director, Brian Levant, made Snow Dogs, Are We There Yet, Jingle All the Way, The Flinstones, Problem Child 2, etc. After a while, you just have to assume he knows what he's doing and give him some credit.
The Lovely Bones $16.4 I've been using the rule of thumb that movies going into wide release lose about half of their PTA. Hopefully word of mouth won't turn people off.
Sherlock Holmes $10.2
Alvin $ the Chipmunks $9.9
It's Complicated $7.7
Daybreakers $6.8 50% plus an extra 10% for BOE competition
The Blind Side $6
Up In the Air $5.3
I will wait to see if there is any awards bounce, and learn from it what I can.
@m1: That is why I said, "Alot of kids don't have school on friday"
The marketing makes my 10 year old daughter want to see "Lovely Bones", but she's not ready for it yet. I am hoping it's PG-13 rating does not attract many pre-teens to a movie with "disturbing violent content and images".
@The Jackal: Avatar won't win Best Picture (Drama) as The Hurt Locker will be hard to beat. The Hangover will probably win Best Picture (Comedy) as It's Complicated and Julie & Julia will split the Meryl Streep vote.
The spy next door might take some of Avatar's family market. Those that have already seen Avatar would only want to see it once. There are many alternatives out there.
Hey Laremy, just wanted to say good job on the possible 3-month streak you have going man.
@The Jackal: Hurt Locker will win at the Golden Globes, but the news will be balanced out by Avatar winning its fifth straight. I haven't done the math, but I see no reason it shouldn't have a legit shot at next weekend's crown too.
@Roger: Thanks Roger! Hopefully I can keep it rolling..
@Jezza: I like 500 Days of Summer to beat The Hangover…
1. Avatar – $35.0 million
2. The Book of Eli – $25.0 million
3. The Lovely Bones – $15.0 million
4. Spy Next Door – $14.0 million
5. Alvin 2 – $10.5 million
6. Sherlock Holmes – $9.8 million
7. It’s Complicated – $8.0 million
8. Daybreakers – $6.8 million
9. The Blind Side – $5.5 million
10. Up in the Air – $5.3 million
@Laremy Legel: If there is a movie that can beat The Hurt Locker it will probaby be Up in the Air.
Up in the Air has one vital ingrediant that Golden Globe voters like: A-List celebrities!
George Clooney is Hollywood royalty and look at the support cast.
Twi-Hards might like Up in the Air because of Anna Kendrick.
Danny McBride is in it and he is famous for starring in a lot of the Judd Apatow movies.
Jason Bateman from Arrested Development is in it, so fans of that might see it.
Last but not least, cult comedian Zach Galifianakis, from The Hangover, is in it.
Both Avatar and The Hurt Locker lack that kind of starpower.
I wouldn't be suprised if Up in the Air was challenging Avatar at the box office next week. Juno dominated the box office 2 years ago, can lightning strike twice for Jason Reitman?
@Jezza: Brad Pitt & Angelina Jolie are Hollywood Royalty. George Clooney is some kind of cross between Hollywood's golden child and class clown.
@ Laremy: While I don't know the extent of the marketing for The Spy Next Door, I can tell you that a lot of it's advertising is in it's star power. Both George Lopez and Billy Ray Cyrus regularly get awards for likability at The Kid's Choice Awards, and The Teen Choice Awards. I'll guess that Jackie Chan is liked by kids too, but It's not a guess that the kid's parents do. I've known this movie is coming out for a long time, based on a trailer. Repeated messages that it's coming out are not neccessary, as kid's will sit up and take notice the first time they see/hear about it.
What if The Spy Next Door beats The Book of Eli due to family appeal?
The Book of Eli is rated R so it's audience will be more limited.
@bill: The Wolfman and Shutter Island are good bets to eclipse Avatar as they were just as anticipated as Avatar.
Anticipation got higher as they were postponed from their original release dates (October 2009).