Box Office Predictions

Box-Office Oracle: 'Identity Thief' Should Survive 'Side Effects'

Bad comedy looks to beat good drama

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Current Streak: Two weekends in a row.
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: A lighter thirty percent.
Reason: This has all the makings of a strange weekend, because the numbers suggest this it will be awful, whereas the history suggests the money has to go somewhere. Still, tracking indicates Bateman and McCarthy should cruise to victory.

MTC Tracking
Identity Thief: $28 million
Side Effects: $13 million

Identity ThiefIdentity Thief should be your winner this weekend, at least according to the tracking. The issue is just how terrible it looks. I mean, if they couldn't find a few laughs to show in the trailer, how miserable is the actual movie going to be? Still, we've got to use the Grown Ups rule here, which opened at $40 million back in 2010, proving people will see a broad comedy despite appearances and reviews. I'm going significantly lower than tracking here at $22 million, if only because I can't imagine it getting strong word-of-mouth.

The film I love this weekend is Side Effects. Do I expect folks to see it? Not immediately, but I'd love to bet on it long-term via home video. The Cinemascore is going to be intensely interesting, though for spoilers sake I'll leave it at that and offer up my $10.9 million prediction.

Warm Bodies should put up a nice holdover number based upon that B+ from audiences, so I'm only dipping it 45 percent. Given it only sits at $26 million worldwide, it still has plenty of work to do, but I'd like to see the plucky little zom-com find success.

Otherwise, Top Gun 3D doesn't seem to have any momentum, I've got it finishing a distant 12th. It's also only getting 300 theaters, not nearly enough to make a splash.

There isn't much in the way of narratives to even get into this weekend, though I'll throw out that I've only got the top 12 earning $73 million, where this period last year cleared $191 million. Oddly enough, that weekend also featured a Channing Tatum movie (The Vow). That guy is everywhere!

How say you? Side Effects and Identity Thief calls are what's needed, break out your spreadsheets and join the fray.

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for February 8 - February 10, 2013

  1. Identity Thief was #1 at the box-office
  2. Warm Bodies () - $11.2 million
    Playing in 3,009 theaters ($3,722 avg.) / $30 million budget / 80%
  3. Side Effects () - $10.9 million
    Playing in 2,605 theaters ($4,184 avg.) / 85%
  4. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters () - $9.4 million
    Playing in 3,375 theaters ($2,785 avg.) / $50 million budget / 15%
  5. Silver Linings Playbook () - $6.2 million
    Playing in 2,809 theaters ($2,207 avg.) / $21 million budget / 92%
  6. Mama () - $3 million
    Playing in 2,781 theaters ($1,079 avg.) / $15 million budget / 62%
  7. Zero Dark Thirty () - $2.8 million
    Playing in 2,600 theaters ($1,077 avg.) / $40 million budget / 93%
  8. Bullet to the Head () - $1.8 million
    Playing in 2,404 theaters ($749 avg.) / 48%
  9. Parker () - $1.7 million
    Playing in 2,238 theaters ($760 avg.) / 38%
  10. Lincoln () - $1.6 million
    Playing in 1,500 theaters ($1,067 avg.) / $65 million budget / 89%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • Arthur Carlson

    1. Identity Thief - $27.5M
    2. Warm Bodies - $12.8M
    3. Side Effects - $9M

  • Movie Fan

    Identity Thief: $17 million
    Side Effects: $12.6 million
    Warm Bodies: $12 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    Identity Thief- $24.7 million
    Side Effects- $16.9 million
    Warm Bodies-$12.4 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lawhs89/ lawhs89

    Thief $14M
    Effects $12M
    Bodies $11M

  • Chris Etrata

    Identity Theft: 12 million
    Side Effects: 21 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Will-E/ Will-E

    Identity Thief - 23.97
    Warm Bodies - 9.75
    Side Effects - 9.25
    Playbook - 5.78
    Hansel and Gretel - 5.17
    Mama - 3.5
    Zero Dark - 3.1
    Lincoln - 2.3
    Django - 2.16
    Bullet - 2.03

  • Dale

    Identity Thief 19 million, Side Effects 14 million.

  • Dennis

    Side Effects 8.8 (I cannot wait til he retires, has not made a decent film since Bubble)

    Identity Theft 19.9

  • http://hauntedbyhumans.wordpress.com Jesse

    Side Effects made my 10 most anticipated.

    I picked one's that people aren't thinking about: http://hauntedbyhumans.wordpress.com/2013/02/08/10anticipated2013/

  • http://usbopredictions2013.blogspot.com/ Mario

    Identity Thief -- 11,8 mln
    Side Effects -- 9,28 mln

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Andrew13/ Andrew13

    1. Identity Thief - 21.7 million
    2. Side Effects - 13.5 million
    3. Warm Bodies - 11.6 million
    4. Silver Linings Playbook - 5.8 million
    5. Hansel & Gretal - 4.8 million
    6. Zero Dark Thirty - 3.0 million
    7. Mama - 2.9 million
    8. Argo - 2.7 million
    9. Django Unchained - 1.8 million
    10. Lincoln - 1.7 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

    I hope that by some miracle Side Effects beats Identity Thief.

  • CJohn

    Side Effects - 21.2M
    Identity Thief - 17.7M

  • Jake B

    I'm predicting:
    Identity Thief $30 million
    Side Effects $8 million