Box-Office Oracle: 'Hansel and Gretel' Should Coast to an Easy Win Against 'Parker' and 'Movie 43'

COMMENTS

Looks like the greater competition will be for second and fourth place

By: Laremy Legel
Published: Thursday, January 24th 2013 at 12:53 PM

Current Streak: Zero weekends in a row.
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: Zero percent, finally!
Reason: The tracking should save me this weekend, although I'm having a tough time figuring out who exactly is planning to see Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters.

MTC Tracking
Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters: $23 million
Movie 43: $10 million
Parker: $9 million

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters seems to be crossing demographic lines, hitting the comedy, action, and fantasy horror genres. Even so, the three million folks who will buy a ticket this weekend are stronger than me, then again I'm seeing Parker and Movie 43 tonight, so I suppose we all have our own cross to bear.

The tracking is very positive for Hansel and Gretel, plus the money has to go somewhere, and I've already got the weekend take slipping 30 percent from Jan 18-20. The number should be in the 20's, and that hefty marketing budget should come into play for a strong Friday night. I award Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $27 million.

On the holdovers, Mama should dip 59 percent. The market is kind to horror openings and then mean for the sophomore weekend. Broken City is another likely candidate for a fall, but anything under 50 percent is a win, so $4.5 million is the number.

Back to the new releases, Movie 43 is in better shape than Parker, mostly because the 37 name actors will bring in a few extra people. By my measurement, it's the largest ensemble cast ever assembled, and though stars have lost most of their box office luster, they still should have a little pull. Let's place Movie 43 at $10 million and Parker at $7.7 million as generic actioners are getting murdered this year.

Next weekend should be a Super Bowl debacle, but Zero Dark Thirty should have one more weekend in the sun. It's still underwater against that $40 million dollar production budget. Could the Producers Guild of America help Zero Dark Thirty out? Nah, probably not, because only the hardiest of film fans pay any attention to the PGAs, and those people have already seen the movie.

That's all for this weekend, offer up your calls for Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Movie 43, and Parker. We'll be reviewing all three on the podcast Friday, which should be a real treat (if you like hearing us chat about presumably horrible movies).

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for January 25 - January 27, 2013

- Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters
- A Paramount Pictures release
- $27 million
- THEATERS: 3,000 ($9,000 per theater)
- BUDGET: $60 million
- ROTTEN TOMATOES: 15%
Mama (Universal Pictures) - $11.7 million
Playing in 2,647 theaters ($4,420 avg.) / $15 million budget / 62%
Zero Dark Thirty (Columbia Pictures) - $11.4 million
Playing in 2,946 theaters ($3,870 avg.) / $40 million budget / 93%
Movie 43 (Relativity Media) - $10 million
Playing in 2,000 theaters ($5,000 avg.) / $6 million budget / 5%
Parker (FilmDistrict) - $7.7 million
Playing in 2,200 theaters ($3,500 avg.) / $30 million budget / 38%
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co.) - $7.5 million
Playing in 2,523 theaters ($2,973 avg.) / $21 million budget / 92%
Gangster Squad (Warner Bros.) - $4.7 million
Playing in 3,103 theaters ($1,515 avg.) / $60 million budget / 32%
Broken City (20th Century Fox) - $4.5 million
Playing in 2,620 theaters ($1,718 avg.) / $35 million budget / 25%
A Haunted House (Open Road Films) - $4.5 million
Playing in 2,002 theaters ($2,248 avg.) / $2.5 million budget / 6%
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co.) - $3.3 million
Playing in 1,800 theaters ($1,833 avg.) / $100 million budget / 88%