Box-Office Oracle: Feb. 5 – Feb. 7, 2010
Avatar goes for crazy eight this weekend. Can Travolta or Tatum put up a fight?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 14 Weeks in a Row
The last time I didn't hit the number one slot a little movie called
Saw VI was getting drilled by
Paranormal Activity. Some time has passed, eh? This is the week I could be in trouble, as early ticket sales suggest
Dear John is gaining traction, but I think the R rating of
From Paris with Love and the awfulness of
Dear John will doom them.
Plus, Avatar is coming off of nine Oscar nominations and Super Bowl Sunday will hurt From Paris with Love more than Avatar. That's my take anyway, though I of course reserve the right to be wrong. Lastly, kudos to Avatar for taking over the top slot on the box-office oracle logo for what could be a very long time.
Estimate: $24.4 million
This is a fun little movie. I wouldn't claim it's logical, or without flaws, but I would recommend it to friends of mine who were fans of silly and violent cinema. It could have a nice Friday night before coming back to the pack. I'm putting it at a number about 20 percent higher than Ronin per theater, because that seems to be the closest in terms of pedigree.
Estimate: $18.0 million
After catching When in Rome I had to skip screening Dear John. I couldn't risk it killing my morale. It will do well with segments of the younger demo, they love Channing Tatum, but I've got it opening like Nights in Rodanthe. Yep, I think there are exactly the same amount of older romantics as there are younger ones. Bold, right?
Estimate: $14.7 million
I am dropping it 53 percent based on Super Bowl Sunday. Word of mouth can't have been very good here, at least it wasn't amongst my peer group.
Estimate: $8.0 million
Needs another $80m or so to feel good about making a profit. I don't think it gets all the way there.
Estimate: $7.5 million
I laughed seven times, so it's not a completely unfunny film. I just wish they would have run with the "From the director of Ghost Rider!!" trailer idea I pitched them.
Estimate: $6.4 million
It will pass Waterworld (not adjusted for inflation) on the Post-Apocalyptic charts at some point in the next week. So that's something. They've also made more than 10x the amount The Road cleared domestically.
Estimate: $5.3 million
Many of the films that received Oscar nominations are getting 500 or 600 extra theaters this weekend, wreaking havoc with my charts. My charts like it best when things are stable.
On that note, bonus predictions!
#11 Lovely Bones: $2.9m
#12 Crazy Heart: $2.7m
#13 Sherlock Holmes: $2.6m
#14 It's Complicated: $2.1m
#15 Squeakquel: $1.6m
#16 Frozen: $1.0m
Estimate: $3.4 million
The small budget has them in a decent position if international and DVD sales come through.
Estimate: $3.1 million
It took 18 weeks, but An Education will finally crack the top ten this weekend. Quite a journey!
Estimate: $3.0 million
How say you? Do you dare to pick against Avatar's mathematically improbable run? Am I being too hard on Dear John? Planning to see From Paris with Love? Comment now, before it's too late. And oh yeah, one more bonus prediction, take the Saints on Sunday. Trust me.
Avatar will make it 8 straight. This will be it's last weekend at the top though. Nevertheless, it looks like it'll have enough steam to make a run at 700mil domestic since it won't lose most-if not all-3D and Imax screens to "Alice" on 3/5.
Dear John has a chance to beat Avatar. Is almost negative, but exists. I think From paris with love will bomb. The critics are terrible. Avatar will win again, unless something really strange happens.
My Predcitions:
1. Avatar-$25.9M
2. Dear John-$18.2M
3. From Paris With Love-$12.5M
4. Edge of Darkness-$9.0M
5. When in Rome-$7.0M
Next Weekend Early Predcitions – 4-day Weekend: Valentine's Day – $35M; Percy Jackson – $32M; The Wolfman – $30M; Avatar – $27.5M.
Sadly I believe Valentine's Day will be the film that takes down Avatar
I'm finding Dear John impossible to predict. There are just too many unknowns because of the films stealth reboot which gears the film to a younger audience. Nicholas Sparks films usually can count on a $5,000 to $6,000 PTA, but that is with older actors. What is the ratio of teenagers & young adults who go to the movies vs. older women who go to the movies? The superbowl should suppress sunday by two thirds regardless. Presales are very high, but presales aren't a reliable stand in for the entire market. Will When In Rome be effective competiton? Lot's of twitter activity, and heavy internet search volume. The movie poster was in theaters when New Moon was playing, which turned out to be a lot of advertising. Girls love these actors, and think Channing Tatum is a hunk. Young girls go everywhere in packs. The theater count is higher than expected, showing the studio has faith in the movie.
I'm going to go ahead and assume a successful stealth reboot.
Avatar $23.8 million either 50% Sunday drop or Oscar bounce makes this total work
Titanic $23,027,838
Dear John $23.1 million probably the best case scenario (?)
From Paris with Love $9.6 million bad title; few seem interested, 1/3 normal sunday
Will Avatar get a weekend Oscar bounce?
Can Dear John actually beat Avatar? (who knows what teens are up to)
Why am I having flashbacks of teens rushing the theaters like they did with New Moon?
Good Luck, everyone. I'm going to check out Crazy Heart tonight.
@Laremy
Isn't The Tooth Fairy losing a ton of theaters?
1. Dear John – $24.5M – Going with the romance to beat Avatar. I'm getting used to upsets at the box office and with this thing at 51% of daily sales at advanced ticket sites compared to Avatar's 31%, it's got a huge shot of doing it.
2. Avatar – $23.1M – Going to see its biggest drop to date. But still not that big of a drop. Expecting it to lose it's number 1 status, and it just makes sense.
3. From Paris With Love – $12.3M – Super Bowl plus Travolta hasn't had a successful action movie since Face Off on top of reviews haven't been that positive.
4. Edge of Darkness – $7.8M – Gibson called an interviewer an asshole thinking the mic was turned off. Funny. Not funny enough to keep a 55% drop from happening.
5. Tooth Fairy – $7.2M – If it is losing theaters, then I'm wrong with this prediction.
6. The Book of Eli – $5M
7. An Education – $4.5M – I feel this film has the best chance for an Oscar bump only because it's getting the biggest theater bump.
8. Legion – $3.3M
9. Sherlock Holmes – $3.2M
10. Crazy Heart – $2.9M – And this is getting the most buzz from indies since Maggie got the Supporting Actress nod.
this is gonna be a strange weekend, with major storms hitting pretty much half of the country. I think this is the week Avatar goes down (thank you SO much for picking that poster by the way, I like that one so much better) and Dear John is going to be the one that takes it down. People won't be willing to go to the theater in the storms to see Avatar, but I go to a college with 60% girls, and I can tell you almost all of them will be going to the theater this weekend to see Dear John, even with the snow. Nights In Rodanthe was a blip in the Nicholas Sparks pattern, I think it'll be low and close. Oh and From Paris With Love will be a distant 3rd.
1. Dear John – $23.5 Million
2. Avatar – $21 Million
3. From Paris With Love – $15 Million
4. Edge of Darkness – $9 Million
5. When In Rome -$8 Million
6. Book of Eli – $6 Million
7. Legion – $5 Million
8. The Tooth Fairy – $4 Million
9. Crazy Heart – $2.5 Million
10. Precious – $2 Million
1.Avatar-$23.2 (-23%)-even MILDER drop due to Oscar nods.
2.Dear John-$15.5 (N/A)-either a success or fail.
3.From Paris With Love-$9.9 (N/A)-1 question: why bother?
4.Edge of Darkness-$9.5* (-44%)-poor Mel. It should have been a contender!
5.When in Rome-$8.2 (-32%)-shouldn't this drop more?
6.The Book of Eli-$7.9 (-10%)-It'll be gone in 2 weeks, so watch it when you can.
7.Legion-$5.2 (-24%)-if you want to assemble a legion that won't watch it, I'm here.
8.Tooth Fairy-$4.9 (-51%)-see #7.
9.Up in the Air-$3.8 (+41%)-welcome back, Oscar contender!
10.An Education-$2.9 (+2,337)-trust me; this could sneak in drastically.
Bonus Predictions:
-8.The Blind Side-$4.4 (+47%)-see #9.
-9.Crazy Heart-$3.8 (+65%)-see #9.
-10.Precious-$2.2 (+923%)-see…oh, we get it already.
@Laremy: So how bad do you think AVATAR will be beat by Percy Jackson & the Wolfman? Also, does it have a chance at the #2 slot (say, if Wolfman gets terrible reviews)?
1. Avatar————————25.2
2. Dear John——————-15.1
3. From Paris With Love—-14.7
4. Edge of Darkness———-9.8
5. The Tooth Fairy————7.2
6. When in Rome————–6.6
7. The Book of Eli————–6.0
8. Legion————————4.9
9. The Lovely Bones———-2.8
10. Sherlock Holmes———-2.0
What an incredible run AVATAR has had. Once the dust has settled, James Cameron's Titan…er…Epic adventure will be sitting alone atop its golden throne as the #1 highest grossing film of all time with a domestic haul of over $700 million (just a conservative estimate). It's made over $2 billion worldwide – that's like "TWO" Transformers movies.
I'm almost sad to see its incredible run end after "only" 8 Weeks as the #1 film at the box office. Were it not for a little film called Percy Jackson & The Olympians, there is no doubt in my mind, Avatar would have coasted its way to at least 10 or 11 weekends at #1.
According to Box Office Mojo, theater counts are as follows:
Dear John = 2,969
Tooth Fairy = 3,218 (-127 from last week)
Avatar = 3,000 (-74 from last week)
Oops, forgot to put When In Rome in. Remove Crazy Heart and at When in Rome to $7.5M just behind Edge of Darkness.
avatar around 27.5 million
the other two new ones around 15 million
im rooting for avatar to take next weekend down to, and then finally be taken down by scorsesse and shutter island! Great irony
@The Check Spot: My bad. It's not The Tooth Fairy that's losing theaters, it's The Spy Next Door. Sorry.
@americanrequiem: Why is that ironic?
@The Check Spot: It's okay. It happens to me almost every WEEK.
Sorry but it's all about DEAR JOHN this weekend. Every single girl I know wants to see it.
1. DEAR JOHN – $30.1 million
2. AVATAR – $24.2 million
3. FROM PARIS WITH LOVE – $18.9 million
4. EDGE OF DARKNESS – $9.6 million
5. TOOTH FAIRY – $7.2 million
Hopefully I'll be able to check out FROZEN this weekend, or finally BOOK OF ELI and EDGE OF DARKNESS. I sure need to catch up on my movies…
:]
Yea I agree with Chuck. A lot of people want to see Dear John… NOTHING LIKE NIGHTS IN RODANTHE BRAD!
Im seeing it beating Avatar for 27.4 mil.
@Matt: Something to do with Leo, maybe?
@Oscar Smarty: I PARTLY agree. I've seen many of my friends carrying the novel around.
i just want to add, that a dvd screener of avatar leaked yesterday, so this should be a vary interesting weekend in regards to whether or not piracy poses a big threat or not.
alright maybe ironic was the wrong choice of words, i mean itll take Matrin Scorsesse to finally take James Cameron down, is anyone gonna argue over whos the better director?
@americanrequiem: Great!!! Only one thing left to hope: let's hope Shutter Island is a good movie. People (me included) seem to be over-hyping it.
@m1: I probably should leave this one alone, but we just had this argument about actresses elsewhere on this site. Good directing is as good directing does. James Cameron has directed films with $1,756,556,402 worth of box office. Martin Scorsese has directed films with $702,260,034. All numbers domestic. So James Cameron is a $1 billion dollar better director than Martin Scorsese. If money doesn't matter, then I'm going to give the best director nod to the director of a local theater group in a nearby suburb near my home city, who consistently puts out good product year in, and year out. This is my opinion. Please don't get mad.
@m1: Sorry, that comment was for @americanrequiem:
@m1: I'm starting to get on board with a Shutter Island debut of over $30 million. Being the only new movie released should definitely help.
Avatar will top the weekend with 25.1mil. Dear John will be heavily frontloaded with most of it's audience coming out on Fri. It'll outgross Avatar on that day but Avatar will make it up on Sat. Avatar will take a hit on SuperBowl Sun but it will still be enough to keep it no.1 overall for one more weekend.
Avatar – $23
Dear John – $21
From Paris with love – $17
@mfan: maybe I misunderstand you…. a judge of a good director is box office? or are you just saying that we shouldn't NOT take that into account….
1. Avatar………………….26.4
2. Dear John……………..20.5
3. Paris w/ Love………….9.5
4. Edge o' Dark…………..8.9
5. Tooth Fairy…………….7.1
6. When Roma……………6.8
7. Eli's Book……………….4.3
8. Sherlock………………..3.0
9. Legion…………………..2.9
10. Lovely Bones…………2.8
11. Blind Side……………..2.6
12. Alvin & Chips………….2.2
Uninteresting weekend, I thought, until I saw people putting Paris over Dear John. unlikely, methinks. Anyway, my big problem is that I made my predictions, and then remembered the superbowl. So my adjustments for it are haphazard and I feel uncomfortable about them. Oh well. Next week is when the fun starts.
@mfan: Okay, that local theater director is a hack first and foremost. Seriously? Inherit the Wind? Trite! I can't believe you like his crap! (Please note, this is meant to be taken as a joke and does not mean I want to start a messageboard war over the local theater director)
[1] Avatar – $20M
[2] Paris – $16M
[3] Dear John – $14M
[4] Darkness – $9M
[6] Rome – $8M
[7] Fairy – $7M
[8] Eli – $4M
[9] Holmes – $2M
[10] Chipmunks – $2M
Off topic but who are you picking for The SuperBowl?
1. Avatar–$25.0. Its Oscar "bounce" for Tuesday and Wednesday was miniscule, holding a mere percentage point better than the days the previous week, whereas other Oscar nominees have had percentage holds 5-20% better than last week. Were it not Superbowl weekend, I would say Avatar would drop another 10%. But since it is Superbowl weekend, I'm saying 20%. Look for a possible rise on President's Day weekend, though! $700mil is a 100% lock, and $750mil a probability.
2. Dear John–$16.2mil. I sense people are excited to see this, but not so much that I can expect more than $20mil. BOM audiences polls suggest a number closer to $15-17mil.
3. From Paris with Love–$11.2mil. This estimate may even be generous. People are not excited to see this, and the name is a real clunker. You have to realize how important a name is in catching an audience's attention. "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel" only got by because of the name recognition with Alvin and the Chipmunks.
4. Edge of Darkness–$9.5mil. It'll hold more than half its business. Why? Well, were it not Superbowl weekend, I'd be predicting only a 38% drop, because its first Saturday had a 26% rise, it's been holding well during the weekdays, and its disappointing opening leaves less room for it to fall. But it's going to have a large drop on Sunday, so I'm going with -45%.
5. Tooth Fairy–$6.3mil.
6. When in Rome–$6.2mil. -50%, because it seems like such an odious movie, and "Dear John" is opening directly in its demographic.
7. Crazy Heart–$5.3mil. Its expansion has held on REALLY well to its PTA's, so its wide release is going to have about $6500 PTA, thanks especially to its acting noms (Jeff Bridges being a favorite to win). P.S.: "Precious" may have gotten a BP nom, but it did its big business in November, and it's only in 669 theaters. I predict $2.7mil or less. As for "An Education," it's very much a limited release type of movie, so it's not going to have a good PTA in wide release. At the most $3000 PTA, making for $2.3mil. It would have never gotten wide release had it not been for its BP nom, and it would have never gotten its BP nom had it not been for the extra 5 slots. So yeah… "An Education" is sort of screwed over in terms of its mainstream success.
8. The Book of Eli–$4.9mil.
9. Legion (2010)–$3.4mil
10. The Lovely Bones–$2.8mil. Sigh. I hope this manages to make at least a decent amount overseas. It really wasn't a bad movie… maybe B- material. It was really messy and problematic ("The Lovely Bones" seemed good in the novel form, but it presents such huge problems in film adaptation, problems that would require an entire reworking of the structure to get around), but it had some great moments. Let's see… it's headed for about $45-50mil domestically, and it's opening in quite a few overseas markets this weekend (including France and the UK). At worst, it has to score at least $30-40mil overseas? At the very worst? I'm hoping for closer to $50-70mil. In all, it won't make enough money for a profit in theaters, but maybe on DVD? I just don't want Peter Jackson to have a bomb to his name.
@The Jackal: I have no idea on Percy at this point. It looks like a very strange movie.
@Oscar Smarty: Brad doesn't write Oracle, I do. So far as Rodanthe vs. Dear John, they were both written by Nicholas Sparks, who also penned The Notebook. So the stories definitely have something in common, if not the demo.
@Abrahim: The piracy math has always been difficult for me to comprehend. Would people skip the theater experience only to watch it on a computer? Or does the illegal version only attract people who never would have bought a ticket, anyway? I haven't seen any good arguments/data either way.
@Josh: Saints to cover, win, and Brees as the MVP. Too many people have given the game to the Colts already.
Avatar has a disadvantage this weekend due to Superbowl Weekend.
@Laremy Legel:
All I am saying is Dear John has a HUGE teenage crowd and nights in rodanthe didnt. You are predicting way too low. Every girl out there is reading this book. It will do nice business and will prob take the top spot away.
And I am sorry, I forgot you write it not Brad.
Thanks.
27.4 mil
@Dan Tralder: My philosophy is that you should trust your own judgement about who is the best director, but that is not so much of a fact as it is a preference. Who is actually the best director is decided by everybody together. Everybody together has decided they like James Cameron's directorial vision better than Martin Scorsese's vision. You can't get around that by sneering at people who, for example, like to go to the circus instead of the Opera. How many people support someone IS a measure of quality!!! Some people are violently opposed to this point of view, but that's just because they want to put their judgment at the top of the totem pole, and feel superior to others.
1. Avatar – $24.3 million
2. Dear John – $17.8 million
3. From Paris with Love – $15.9 million
4. Edge of Darkness – $9.0 million
5. When in Rome – $7.4 million
6. Tooth Fairy – $6.7 million
7. The Book of Eli – $5.5 million
8. Crazy Heart – $4.0 million
9. Legion – $3.7 million
10. Up in the Air – $2.8 million
I mostly agree with your predictions Laremy, but no way in hell Precious does $5k per theater after doing $969 last weekend… same with An Education.
Even your basic assumptions about Martin Scorsese verses James Cameron may be wrong. The vast majority of people will say that Martin Scorsese is better at character developement than James Cameron. But people who like the circus may think that too much character developement is for dumbasses who don't know that exitement and/or laughs is what's important in stories. People who like novels, and the Opera will think that Martin Scorsese is a relative genius, and that people who can't understand the importance of texture and depth that a focus on character developement brings to a story are clowns at best. How do we decide who is right? The same as our politics. We acknowledge both views, and we vote on it. I like Martin Scorsese's films, but James Cameron has won the vote. That doesn't mean you are forced to go to the circus, though.
@Dan Tralder: I am saying that when you are making a judgement about what makes a good director, you are really judging yourself.
@The Check Spot: Repo Men did move. To March 19th. Now it's just Clash of the Titans (guys), The Last Song (girls), and Tyler Perry (niche), with The Last Song getting a head start by opening on Wednesday.
1. Dear John – $23.5 Million
2. Avatar – $19 Million
3. From Paris With Love – $13.4 Million
4. Edge of Darkness – $11 Million
5. When In Rome -$6.2 Million
6. Book of Eli – $5.6 Million
7. Legion – $4.1 Million
8. The Tooth Fairy – $3.8 Million
9. Crazy Heart – $2.6 Million
10. Precious – $1.8 Million
A lot of people read "Time Traveler's Wife" and it only did 18M. Plus you have to factor in a snowstorm on the east coast on top of a Super Bowl.
Sunday 1am PST
A SUCCESSFUL (!) stealth reboot for Nicholas Sparks films!!! Heretofore Nicholas Sparks films could be counted on for a very reliabe $5,000 to $6,000 PTA opening. But this was with older stars like Kevin Costner and Richard Gere. Now that younger actresses are being used, alongside an emphasis on hunky leading men, it looks like we can look forward to $10,000 PTA! and $30 million openings. Reliably. Wow.
The preliminary estimates for the weekend only have Dear John falling by half on sunday, whereas my estimate assumed two thirds. We shall see. Otherwise it looks like I'm on track.
I know I've read that a studio recently picked up the film rights for at least two (I think it was several) Nicholas Sparks books, but I can't find the article right now. Someone is going to be getting a bonus!
It looks like it's going to take Lasse Hallstrom to take James Cameron down. Is anyone going to argue over who's the better director? I would but I haven't seen Hachiko: A Dog's Story (or The Cider House Rules).
@mfan: Now, as far as best directors, does consistency come into play. Now, Hallstrom has made some solid films in his career (What's Eating Gilbert Grape, My Life As A Dog, The Cider House Rules) but he's also made some crap (The Shipping News, Once Around, Something To Talk About, (please don't hate me) Chocolat). Whereas Cameron has consistently made entertaining Sci-Fi (and one action and one romance on a doomed ocean liner) films. You really have to go back to Pirahna 2 to find a bad Cameron film, and that was a movie he didn't really get to direct to much of. By that means, Cameron is the better director. And he's never had to make ABBA: The Movie. (Lasse directed that as well.)
Hallstrom was a good choice to direct the female-centric Dear John, wasn't he. ABBA: The Movie might be a good B movie worth checking out on Netflix, as I tend to like singers and many musicals, even including Staying Alive (please don't hate me).
Looks like the streak might be over. Looks like Dear John hit the 15M projection on Friday alone.
I actually liked Dear John a little better than I liked New Moon. But I know that some people here won't consider that much of a recommendaton.