Box-Office Oracle: Feb. 19 – Feb. 21, 2010
We're taking Shutter Island. How about you?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
 |  |
| I was originally pretty bearish on this title, I had it finishing second in my initial numbers. But the money has to go somewhere, right? With only one new release, solid reviews, and little competition in the demo, I revised my calculations. I just pray this isn't a Number 23 situation. Big name actor, a director you've heard of, complete bomb. However, I'm thinking the difference between Marty Scorsese and Joel Schumacher has to be a profound one. The good news? Even if these numbers hold the weekend will still be down over $50m, so I don't even need that many people to jump on board. And really, you could logically throw more money behind all these titles. Prediction: $35.5 million |
 |
Valentine's Day films usually open the week before Valentine's Day, so we don't have a great trendline. Definitely, Maybe did open on V-day, but no one chose to see that one, so it's not a great indicator. I'm going for a number around 50 First Dates, though that was a slightly better film.
Prediction: $26.6 million
At this point you predict a bleed somewhere in the 20 percent range and move on, though it's only fallen that far twice in two weekends. It will hit $2.4b in worldwide cume this weekend, if it hasn't already.
Prediction: $17.7 million
This title would seem to be front-loaded (children don't wait) but it has no competition in the demo. Plus, I think the youngsters that haven't read the books will attend this weekend, upon the advice of their friends.
Prediction: $17.4 million
The numbers look bleak. And Brad mentioned to me that Del Toro did this project for very little cash, as a labor of love. So where did they spend the $150m? Craft services?
Prediction: $13.8 million
None of us can logically say why it's gaining theaters this weekend. But it is.
Prediction: $9.1 million
Needs another $70m somewhere to feel great about a profit.
Prediction: $4.7 million
See above, but times two. Yikes.
Prediction: $3.3 million
The impressive part here is the music. The songs sound exactly like country ditties that would have been hits back in the day. Very well done.
Prediction: $3.25 million
Anyone hear that rumor about De Niro being fired from this set? He's probably thankful at this point, eh?
Prediction: $2.9 million
How say you? No number from $23m to $40m would surprise me on Shutter Island. Valentine's Day should logically plummet, but only based on sentiment, not historical trends. I await your prognostications!
Check out our new Box-Office charts
here andsubscribe to our updated Box-Office RSS feed
here
hm im rotting for shutter island, about 30 mil
vday 17 mil
avatar 19 mil
This weekend:
1.Shutter Island-$36.4 (N/A)-people want to see it.
2.Valentine's Day-$20.3* (-61%)-V-Day is OVER.
3.The Lightning Thief-$19.3 (-38%)-there isn't much competition this weekend.
4.The Wolfman-$15.2 (-50%)-SD is opening in its demo.
5.Dear John-$9.5 (-38%)-Idk why it's gaining theaters, either.
6.Avatar-$9 (-59%)-an Oscar bounce makes no sense at all.
7.Tooth Fairy-$5 (-11%)-it seems invisible to me.
8.Crazy Heart-$3.8 (-5%)-word-of-mouth seems to be spreading.
9.From Paris With Love-$2.1 (-55%)-interest faded fast.
10.Edge of Darkness-$2 (-59%)-like I said: poor Mel.
1. Shutter Island – $37.5M Expect this one to do better than most experts are predicting. A lot of positive buzz mixed in with Scorcese and this one's going to play well.
2. Valentine's Day – $25M About a 55% drop seems about right.
3. Avatar – $18.6M Going to be a close race here.
4. Percy Jackson – $18.4M The only thing for the kidees this weekend.
5. The Wolfman – $12.5M Enough bad WOM to kill it.
6. Dear John – $9M
7. Tooth Fairy – $4.7M
8. Crazy Heart – $3.9M
9. From Paris With Love – $3.7M
10. Edge of Darkness – $3M
Myself, I'm going to call for a smaller opening, just because it's not abundantly over 3,000 theaters. It's close to that mark, but I see the numbers in the high-20s, low 30s range.
I'm going to go with 29.5 million opening weekend.
1. Shutter Island – $40.7
2. Valentine's Day – $26
3. Percy Jackson – $19.4
4. Avatar – $13.6
5. The Wolfman – $12.1
6. Dear John – $7.8
7. Tooth Fairy – $3.2M
8. Crazy Heart – $3.1M
9. From Paris With Love – $2.8
10. Edge of Darkness – $2.8
I am a believer in "Percy" and think it may not drop much at all. It won on Monday, has good WOM, added 40 theaters, and nothing for kids until "Alice" in March. I will say 24M.
Although what you said is true, it dropped on tuesday.
Everything dropped on Tuesday though, since it was back to the normal work week for people. Kids/family films are the ones that usually do the poorest during weekdays anyway.
@Brad: 150 Million bucks is what it took for the Wolfman to re-shoot scenes.
Going for Shutter with 38 Mil, The Ghost Writer with 30K per theater
Valentine's Day will drop out of the top 5.
I do beliebe Shutter Island will win. Great book w/ a great director at the helm directing the adaptation with an A-grade actor starring. As far as Valentines Day…those numbers are dropping…alot! WOM and the fact that the "holiday" is over will hurt it.
I am still going with my 20 million for Shutter Island maybe even less than that. The reviews for it have been more mixed then positive and I don't think word of mouth will be as good on it as others seem to think.
1. Shutter Island–$35.6mil. It's tracking quite well. The last two movies to open wide by themselves were "This Is It" and "Couples Retreat." The former made $23.2mil, the latter $34.3mil. I predict Shutter Island will more follow Couples Retreat because it's on a normal weekend (whereas This Is It came out on a weekend that included Halloween, always a disadvantageous release date), and also because it's more aimed at adults (albeit not the same type of adults). Also, I'm predicting over $30mil because it's a Martin Scorsese film starring Leonardo DiCaprio, and its public awareness is high. I'll also be quick to predict pretty good holds and an easy chance at $100mil domestically.
2. Valentine's Day–$19.4mil. I have it falling 65%; that's quite a lot. But I think I'm justified. Think: its main appeal was that it was a movie called "Valentine's Day" being released on the weekend with Valetine's Day in it. This is similar to the gimmick of "Friday the 13th" opening on Friday the 13th (on the same time frame, no less). And we all know how far that one fell. Well, Valentine's Day won't fall THAT much, but its weekday holdovers have been pretty abysmal, and chick flicks fall pretty hard the weekend after Valentine's Day ("He's Just Not That Into You," which posted lots of 20-35% drops in the first few weeks of its run, had its streak marred by a 56% drop after the same weekend). Furthermore, "Valentine's Day" got rock bottom reviews, and the best I've heard about is that it's "pretty good," normally uttered in an excuse against me saying, "I heard it was horrible." Not too promising.
3. Avatar–$19.0mil. It'll benefit from having to deal with only one new release that doesn't overlap that much with its demographic anyway.
4. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief–$18.0mil. I'm not quite sure you're correct when you say "Kids don't wait," at least not in terms of box office numbers. Family films actually tend to hold pretty well. This is because, when it comes to films, you should actually say, "Teenagers don't wait." As for kids, they aren't nearly as aware of which film opens when. Things depend more on word-of-mouth when dealing with kids. They aren't as adept at going on the internet and searching out the opening day of the movie they've been wanting to see. So many of them who badly wanted to see it will end up going on the 2nd weekend, or even the 3rd. Also, kids are a lot more likely to want to rewatch a movie than other demographics, so even mediocre films will grab repeat business (which perhaps explains why "The Tooth Fairy" has been holding so well).
5. The Wolfman–$13.3mil. I have this falling about 58%. I won't be surprised if it falls more than 60%. But its weekday holds have been okay, so this might not end up being the Watchmenesque rock-faller like I originally predicted. On the other hand, its holds won't exactly be spectacular, either. It'll be off the Top 10 by mid-March, and it won't make back its budget in theaters.
6. Dear John–$8.1mil. It's gaining theaters, Laremy, because last week it post a PTA of over $5000. For a chick flick (or a family flick, when applicable), that's enough money to justify adding a few more theaters. For some reason, action movies and R-rated films don't experience the same bump unless their PTA's are much higher.
7. Tooth Fairy–$4.7mil. Okay, so its opening weekend wasn't any good, but its holds have been pretty damn impressive! This past Tuesday and Wednesday it was 50% over the same day the week before! Now, I don't expect that to continue into the weekend (because in fact, the percentages were actually +54.7%, then +45.5%, and Thursday will be less), but its losing few theaters, and it may only see a 20% drop. And since it only cost $48mil, according to BOM, it really doesn't need $70mil more to feel good about a profit–more like $30-40mil more, and it's doing okay overseas. Even if it suddenly stopped playing right now, it'd still pull a profit on DVD.
8. Crazy Heart–$3.6mil
9. From Paris with Love–$2.7mil
10. Edge of Darkness–$2.5mil
1. Shutter Island……… 25.4
2. Avatar…………….. 20.2
3. Percy Jackson et al…. 19.6
4. Valentine's Day…….. 19.4
5. Wolfman……………. 13.5
6. Dear John…………….8.5
7. Tooth Fairy…………..4.2
8. Crazy Heart…………..4.0
9. From P with Love………2.8
10. Edge of Darkness……..2.6
11. Book of Eli………….2.1
12. Blind Side…………..1.6
Looking towards He's Just Not That Into You's post-Valentine's day drop + 10% drop to adjust for it being the second weekend.
Don't feel great about Percy, but I feel like you are a little low on Avatar. We'll see, as always. Good luck, Chuck Baratowski! (I butchered your name, I'm sure)
1 Shutter Island $30.6
2 Valentine's Day $22.7
3 Percy Jackson $19.5
4 Avatar $18.3
5 The Wolfman $14.4
6 Dear John $8.3
7 Tooth Fairy $4.5
8 Crazy Heart $3.9
9 From Paris with Love $3.2
10 Edge of Darkness $2.9
Valentines Day is more Friday the 13th than He's Just Not That Into You because of the whole number/date thing. V-Day will tumble 75%+. As a result it's D-Day for V-Day.
1.) Shutter Island – $ 27.5 mil
2.) Valentines Day – $ 26 mil
3.) Avatar – $ 18.5 mil
4.) Percy Jackson and the Olympians – $ 17.5 mil
5.) The Wolfman – $ 14 mil
6.) Dear John – $ 11.2 mil
7.) The Tooth Fairy – $ 4 mil
8.) From Paris With Love – $ 3.2 mil
9.) Crazy Heart – $ 2.9 mil
10.) Edge Of Darkness – $ 2.7 mil
1. Shutter Island – $32.0 million (would love for it to make more, wouldn't be surprised if it made less)
2. Valentine's Day – $22.1 million (61% drop, ala Sex and the City)
3. Avatar – $16.9 million (Titanic lost 25.43% in PTA the same weekend in '99, same scenario here)
4. Percy Jackson – $16.0 million (can fall 40%, can fall 60-65%, like Eragon, Golden Compass, etc. I'll go with 48% dip)
5. The Wolfman – $15.2 million (wouldn't be surprised if it fell harder under the pressure of SI, but I'm optimistic)
6. Dear John – $8.7 million
7. Tooth Fairy – $3.8 million
8. From Paris with Love – $3.5 million
9. Crazy Heart – $3.4 million
10. Edge of Darkness – $2.6 million
1. Shutter Island———37.9
2. Valentine's Day——–22.0
3. Avatar—————–17.0
4. Percy Jackson———-16.9
5. The Wolfman————12.9
6. Dear John—————8.7
7. The Tooth Fairy———4.4
8. Crazy Heart————-3.1
9. From Paris With Love—-2.9
10. Edge of Darkness——-2.3
I'm afraid that I'm going a bit low on Percy Jackson and Wolfman; however, I haven't heard good word of mouth on either of these films and I definitely wasn't impressed by Jackson (I gave it a 2 1/2 out of 4)
Shutter Island will make a boatload of money of money as this film will appeal to critics and moviegoers alike.
It looks like the "happy films will bank in this recession" theory is wrong. It looks like consumers are opening up their wallets as the recession ends. Look for films to do well going forward. Which makes sense because a good film is still a good value. I just went to a concert that cost $100. That's at least five movies.
The Blind Side now has a 50/50 chance to surpass Star Trek! A 20% or less drop this weekend could seal the deal!