Box-Office Oracle Extra: Predicting Wed/Thurs Numbers for 'Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen'
Definitely not easy to predict, but here goes...
Photo: DreamWorks and Paramount Pictures
When looking at the potential Wed-Thurs box-office grosses for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen we need some context. First off, the original opened with $27m on a Tuesday. So you've got to figure the sequel will do more than that. Next, for the sake of argument, here's the top ten Wednesday openings (via BoxOfficeMojo):
- Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $44.2 million
- Spider-Man 2: $40.4 million
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King: $34.5 million
- Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace: $28.5 million
- The Passion of the Christ: $26.6 million
- The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers: $26.2 million
- The Matrix Revolutions: $24.3 million
- War of the Worlds: $21.3 million
- Jurassic Park III: $19.0 million
- Men in Black II: $18.6 million
80% of the list is comprised of franchises; 30% of the films represented are number two in the series. So not a ton of help there. Two of the films were released in June (Spider-Man 2, War of the Worlds) — but both were released in late June, the 29th and 30th, respectively. Projections have ranged from $30m to $60m for Wednesday, and of course the number will be less on Thursday (the reasoning being those who don't see it right away will hold off until Friday).
Revenge of the Fallen is getting 4000+ theaters domestically, so no concerns there. Though Brad didn't love it (and he's 100% correct), reviews and word-of-mouth won't do any damage until next weekend. So here goes nothing, a number I feel is "safe" as it ends up falling right in the middle of everything I've seen and really serves as more of a conversation starter than anything.
Wednesday: $43 million
Thursday: $27 million
————————
Total: $70 million
I'll be the first to admit Wed/Thurs numbers aren't as easy as weekend numbers, so I look forward to your input. I could see as high as $55m (and the record) on Wednesday, or as low as in the $30s. Thursday will probably be 60% of Wednesday's total. So go for it, comment away, and we'll be right back here on Thursday to figure out if a $100 million weekend is a given.
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I hope this crap bombs. Movies made by a committe usually stink. I think this one smells to high heaven. We should not endorse atrocites that only bombard our senses. It really is a godlike joke, the public being persuaded to pay our way into theatres only to torment ourselves. You see it when you look at drunks and smokers.
I definetly seeing it topping Harry Potter's Wednesday record.
I predict 51.7 mil Wednesday opening.
I'm thinking w/ the midnight numbers and such, it'll hit $54 million Wednesday, drop down to about $28 million the next day and the weekend'll play out like "Wolverine". I don't think it'll hit the $100 million mark for the 3 day weekend, but it could make over $150 million over 5 days, which is still good.
Word of mouth will be horrible, I'm sure, so I won't be surprised if it tops out at just under $400 million domestic (which, unfortunately, will probably be the highest gross of 2009).
Jesus Christ, word of mouth is going to be terrible. I think 39 million Wednesday, 22 million Thursday. Then around 100 for the weekend. But I see this one having a huge drop next weekend.
Bustray, word of mouth isn't going to matter a bit for this film. People that want to see a Transformers movie are going to see it, everyone else won't. People know what they're getting from this so it's not like people are going to be put off when they hear it's all mindless action and no story. We know that already.
My guess is gonna be a little high because there are many who enjoy this kind of movie (not I) so I'm gonna go ahead and say…84 million for wed/thurs and around 140 million overall through the weekend.
Great numbers, but I'm giving a little more to the opening day.
47.5m Wednesday
24.5m Thursday
102m Friday-Saturday-Sunday
174m 5-day
Well i think alot of people are forgetting that everyone and i mean everyone has been expecting and waiting for this popcorn mivue all SUMMER. So to say that word of mouth is going to kill this movie is wrong its one of those movies that's bullet-proof because of its FX, and perfect time gearing up for the 4th of July.So i am expecting HUGE numbers for Opening Day 4 theaters in my area and within 25 miles have been sold-out since yesterday so they had to add more showings. I am going to go with an opening of about-$62.7 Million and about $34.5 Million on Thurs. And the Opening weekend at about $112.2 Million. any thoughts?
@On2slaught:
Also next weekend is still going to be HUGE because of the 4th of July. So it will still pull in some BIG numbers. I think the 2nd weekend will be about $73 Million
@On2slaught: I personally would not expect a big 2nd weekend, with Public Enemies taking adults and Ice Age 3 taking away families and 30% on RT does not suggest great word of mouth. I would predict about $65 million over the first 2 days and $110 million weekend but the 2nd weekend I predict it goes hits $43-47 million.
Yes, remember that all of the fanboys and girls will come out for Transformers 2 in its first week, and then most of them won't return to see it again. And then for people who aren't fans, word of mouth will not be outstanding, so they will probably favor a better movie, like Up, The Hangover or Public Enemies. It is a very front loaded movie.
Are you kidding me? 21 mill at midnight, 70 mill wednesday, 35 mill Thursday, 168 million weekend 273 million for the 5 days. This shit will holdover well and beat Titanic with a total of 734 million domestic and 2 billion dollars world wide.
@Trevor:
No, word of mouth affects all movies, regardless, but usually not in their first weeks, and especially for films of this ilk. "The Dark Knight" and to a lesser extent the first "Transformers" film became hits because the WOM was excellent (good for the latter movie). "Transformers" succeeded because it was a good action flick, but also a decent movie that the kids will enjoy as well, so families came in droves. The fanboys and others will line up this week, but after that I'm not so sure it won't crash.
@Terry:
Yeah dude, good luck with that.
@Vince
Like it or not, crap like this succeeds. We live in a country of total idiocracy right now and this will just hit a cord whit that level moviegoers. The good old days of movies ike Dark Knight, Iron Man and LOR's topping box-office lists are long gone.
Revenge of the Fallen:
Wed=55mil (14mil midnights, 41mil regular hours)
Thur=27mil
Fri to Sun=100.5mil
First 5-days=182.5mil
Word of mouth doesn't reflect until the 2nd weekend and so on. There is reason to be concerned though because so far this summer, the moviegoing public has not been very forgiving to films with bad word of mouth. Also, Public Enemies and Ice Age 3 will take a bite out of Transformers next weekend. Public Enemies will take away a good chunk of adults and women who adore Johnny Depp, and Ice Age 3 will take away the families with kids who are too young for the live-action mayhem of Transformers. Not to mention, Proposal, UP, and Hangover will still be pulling in good crowds themselves this weekend and so on.
Some of the predictions above are just plain crazy. 270+ million over 5 days?!? 70+ million on opening day wed alone?!?! For that to happen, matinees have to be at least 3/4 full the entire 5-day span. I know colleges and schools are out for the summer, but the big chunk of the moviegoing public has this thing called "work"
Anyway, I'm seeing:
Wed=52.5mil (counting midnights). This will be the biggest day B.O.-wise
Thur=27.5mil
Fri= 32mil
Sat= 37mil
Sun= 31mil
The 2nd weekend won't be as big as some are saying. Public Enemies, Ice Age 3, and the rest of the holdovers with great word of mouth (UP, Hangover, Proposal…) will do good business also.
Wed=50mil
Thurs=27mil
Fri-Sun=100.5mil
5 day total=177.5mil
Like what Raichu says above, it is worth noting that moviegoers have been cruel to films with bad word of mouth, and have pretty much abandoned such films after it's opening weekend. For some weird reason, critics and the moviegoing public have pretty much seen eye to eye so far this summer. This weekend will really tell us nothing about Revenge of the Fallen's word of mouth, we'll see that next weekend and in the ensuing weekends. I'm amazed though that the other studios are not giving it plenty of space for itself, given that Public Enemies and Ice Age 3 are going to hit theaters in just a week after it's release.
@Yamato
There's also this thing called the "recession" everyone I know whose in college is either not working or only doing it part time and believe me they've still got the money to spend on noise like this. Maybe I was a little to bullish, but I beleive that this "film" will still break the openning day, weekend and five day record.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen is without any doubt the most anticipated movie of the summer, and I would also say the whole year. The numbers just have to be big, monumentally big. Even though the original movie wasn't a masterpiece, it was very well received by people anyway, making a collosal 319.2 million domestically and a fantastic 707 million worldwide. No matter how bad the sequel is, fans will rush into the theaters this week and will make the movie to have one of the most gargantuan openings of all times. It's very sad the movie didn't open on Friday, in that way it would certainly have made 140+ million, becoming the movie with the 3rd biggest opening weekend ever, behind Spidey 3 and TDK.
It's no mystery that the wednesday number will be big, we just don't know how big. I don't think it will be less that 45M, and neither over 60M, but that's just too high since it's wednesday, not friday. A 48-52 million opening day is more realistic. Traditionally movies opening on wednesday have thursdays with about 50% of the previous day, so a 24-26 million could result for the 2nd day. For the 3 day weekend, I think it will go anywhere between 93-102 miilion, so I would say that for the 5 day opening, Transformers: ROTF will gross at least 165+ million, which will be completely satisfying for the studio.
More especifically:
W: 51.5M
T: 25.5M
F: 30.0M
S: 35.5M
S: 28.0M
Total: 170.5M
Wednesday: $64 Million
Thursday: $29 Million
Friday: $47 Million
Saturday: $42 Million
Sunday: $43 Million
That's $225 Million for 5 days, and $132 for the weekend.
it's gonna be big.
things that mean nothing to the success of this movie:
-reviews
-word of mouth
-the recession
-people having jobs
I don't think this movie is going to preform like it is expected at all, not with how bad the word of mouth will be. Michael Bay will be lucky if the 3rd is not scrapped, or his budget isn't cut in half.
On a side note, I'm starting to think that Rob Zombie's H2: The Devil Walks Amongst Us will be the best summer movie, and Sherlock Homes be the best fall/winter movie. When one is a Rob Zombie movie, and the other is yet another ridioulous, over the top action movie, that's kind of sad.
There's no chance it'll make anything over 200mil the first five days. Wed and Thur will combine for around 75mil, the weekend will bring another 100mil. 175mil and maybe 180mil over 5-days
Yeah, reviews and word of mouth had nothing to do with the stagnant B.O. of Year One, Land of the Lost, the big crash by Wolverine after it's opening weekend, and the underperformance of T4, and those also had nothing to do with the great success and longevity displayed by Hangover, Star Trek, and Up.
The early Wed and Thur opening will take some steam out of the weekend, that has been proven throughout the years. I'm surprised some are predicting a Fri-Sun of around 125mil or more.That's just not going to happen folks. While TR2 will indeed dominate, there are plenty of solid films in the market that will pull in solid crowds themselves. The only record I see in play is TDK's 67mil opening day, and TR2 is a longshot at breaking that one (I think the opening wed at best will be 60mil tops). I think the floor will be 155mil over 5 days, and a roof of about 180mil.
@Terry: Seriously dude you're given people a lot less credit then they deserve. Iron Man and TDK was last year and the two biggest films so far (Star Trek and Up) have 95+ ratings on RT. Word of Mouth does not affect opening weekend but once word gets out and competition gets stronger (I think Public Enemies is going to be a big surprise.) it will be lucky to surpass the first film much less the biggest of all time. (Does no one remember Spider Man 3?)
Yeah but neither Star Trek or Up will surpass 300 mill domestic. Lets just face it movie audiences today just want to see simplistic cheap things that have no meaning or point. It's the world of "entertainment" and "art" that we live in now.
Actually at it's current rate, UP is going to hit 300mil. Of course Transformers 2 will get higher though, I'm thinking 350-375mil. I'm off to see Transformers 2 in IMAX tonight, and by the looks of it, I better come in with rock-bottom standards.
Nah I'm with Tony. Up will do about 290 mil.
Summer's top 3 B.O.
1. Transformers 2: 375mil
2. Potter 6: 325mil
3. Up: 305mil
High schoolers just got out of school and they dont know any better than to go see fake movies like transformers. Especially since people seemed to think the first one was good which is beyond me but besides the point. I say 56 mil opening night 31 the 2nd night.
@tony:
The expectations for those movies were far surpassed though. I remember a few months back when no one was expecting "Star Trek" to even pass $150 million, let alone make almost a quarter of a billion dollars by the end of its run. And with the exception of "Shrek" and "Finding Nemo", family/animated films never really have become true blockbusters- yes they'll make 100s of millions of dollars, but the only films to break the $300 million barrier in the past 5 years were the two Shrek sequels. Keep that in mind.
For "Transformers", it was always meant to be a huge franchise film- look at the budget, look at the complete lack of direct competition, look at the star power. It was always meant to be the big movie of the summer after the first film did so well. You're comparing apples and oranges here my friend.
@Vince: Going into the summer, I also read about industry analysts that were proclaiming UP will be a complete disaster for Pixar, saying it'll be lucky to even hit 175mil given it's non-kid friendly premise. Those people are now eating their own words as UP is at Finding Nemo pace at the box office. Star Trek and UP have indeed surpassed expectations, and even won over audiences who weren't interested in them in the first place as word got out as to how superb they were.
My predictions for the year
1. Transformers 416 mil
2. Avatar 387 mil
3. Harry Potter 327 mil
4. Up 294 mill
5. Twilight 278 mil
1.- Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: 385 million
2.- Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince: 315 million
3.- Up: 302 million
Summer B.O.
1.Transformers 2: 360mil
2.Potter 6: 320mil
3.UP: 307mil
Avatar though will be huge later this year and a potential 400mil right there since it doesn't have any competition when it is still in theaters come Jan and Feb 2010
heres my prediction transformers 3 will not get made due to this being extremely top heavy in its first weekend and dropping like a stone in the second weekend, this movie cost 200 million to make, throw in about 50 mil for advertising, trailers, print your looking at this film having to crack 500 million to make a profit after studio theater split.
@Terry:
"The good old days of movies ike Dark Knight, Iron Man and LOR’s topping box-office lists are long gone."
I'm surprised you can even remember TDK and IM considering they were made sooo long ago.
word of mouth is NOT going to be a problem for this movie, i just saw it and the audience seemed to genuinely enjoy it, applauding at several points throughout the movie. People are gonna eat this shit up!
the audience at midnight showings on a tuesday are usally fanboys (not being mean being honest)
First off I just wanna say that I saw it already and it was everything that I expected and less.
No seriously it was a load of crap but it was shiney horse crap at that, with pleny of explosions. Expect HUGE number for this one, how much I do not wish to venture a guess. I will say that I think it has a shot at $1 billion worldwide though. (Overseas audiences just love crappy sequals).
I also want to point out something that someone else pointed out as well, and that is that Spidey 3 completely fizzled out. It opened with $158 million but only ended up with $330 million. That's still alot but much less than a good movie with that anticpation level would have made (as TDK proved last year). But keep in mind that Spider-Man3 severely disapointed it's core audience by being way too chick-flicky and I got a feeling that TF2 will definately satisfy it's audience. So basically who knows, you know?
Finally I just want to say that I don't think that UP will make it to the $300 million mark. I think it will falll just short because of all the competition it's going to be up against for kids' attention. First Transformers and then Ice Age.
Damn there were many typos and grammar errors in my post. I'm going to sleep in utter shame tonight.
@man1985: I get what your saying but remember a couple of months ago when McG was suggesting that TS would be his Aliens and the majority (myself included) were crapping our pants to see it? Once reviews got out, it lost to NATFM 2. Not to suggest that ROTF will flop but with that in mind and a much tougher group of films to face off against, its not going to hit $1 billion, $800-900 million most likely but not a billion.
First of all, I would like to agree with some of the people here that Transformers 2 was an entertaining movie for lots of people, I'm just sick of people defending it as a good movie for its genre.
Second of all, it is going to be very interesting to see if Up makes it to the $300 million dollar mark. It is running at the same pace of Finding Nemo, which grossed $339 million domestically, but it is important to remember that Transformers will widen the gap a bit between the two movies, and Ice Age 3 will not only steal most of its family audience, but most of its 3D screens as well. I think it all depends on how Ice Age 3 does. If it's a huge hit, then Up may finally fall before it hits the $300 million mark, which would be a big disappointment. However, if Ice Age 3 performs under-expectations, then Up will be able to take back some of its 3D screens and hit the $300 million mark.
for all the times that I've lurked and visited this site I don't think I've ever seen this many posts for box-office predictions. I think ROTF will do about 104 mill between Friday and Sunday and easilly cross the 175 million mark for 5 days. I think it will dropoff teh weekend after that
My prediction for next week.
1. Ice Age 3 79 million
2. Public enemies 54 million
3. ROTF 38 million
No way Public Enemies is going to make 54 million, is just to much for a movie like that. 30-35 million is more realistic.
And Transformers won't collapse that much to just 38 million on it's second weekend, 45-50 million is more realistic too.
As for Up!, come on, is't running exactly at the same pace as Finding Nemo, which grossed a collosal 340 million (which would be around 400 million today, that was really a juggernaut). For this weekend Up will have grossed about 252 million, and at least 278 million the following, only 22 million behind the triple century mark. Why wouldn't it make it???
@Jacob: Without adjusting for inflation, it's only 1% behind Finding Nemo at the same point in their run. I hope it makes it to the 300 million mark as well; it's been a while since a good animated movie crossed that point.
Oh come on Jacob. Christian Bale and Johnny Depp, two guys who are sexy as hell. They're definatley more f***able than Shia Labeouf and some robots, and the movie industry has made alot of money off of the female crowd. Look at everyones favorite TDK I remember reading in EW that almost half it's audience was female. I think that movie will do about 200 million in the U.S.
this was NOT an "all fanboy" kind of midnight showing, i've been to one of those, *cough cough* Watchmen *cough cough* This was a 5 full theaters at the biggest cinema in the state kind of midnight showing.
also i think Ice Age 3 is gonna flop, poor marketing, transformers and the fact that pixar has proven that animated movies can be good since the last one came out should keep it from being as big as the first two. And hopefully some of the parents out there are smart enough to know that dinosaurs came before mammals, not the other way around like this movie seems to be saying… I mean, really?
Regardless, next weekend might be the biggest overall weekend of the year with huge holdovers from Transformers and something in the upper 30s lower 40s at the very least for Ice Age and Public Enemies.
Katie@Katie: If Christian Bale is so f***able as you say, then why TS, which had also all the boys-fan base, dissapointed that much?
If an actor or actress is sexy or not isn't a factor in the equation. That just doesn't matter. People doesn't go to see a movie just because of the stars on it. Public Enemies isn't a blockbuster with a lot of action and power to have a 54 million opening weekend.
@Jacob
Because McG isn't that f***able. Michael Mann however is. TS got rotten reviews and I don't think that Public Enemies will have reviews anywhere near as low as what teh unf***able McG made.
That´s exactly what it is all about: numbers. Nobody cares about content (story somebody, maybe some acting), it´s only about dollars. Such movies are made by committes and are dead as such. They are things to calculate, not to enjoy. God how I hate this Hollywood piece of – you said it.
I saw the midnight show in a dallas mall. They had 13 screens showing it and all but 2 were sold out and keep in mind 2 of the 13 screens hold 500 people each. This movie is not made to win an oscar or to stop world hunger and promote peace. If you expect that in any movie you will be setting your bar too high. If you see it for what it is which is robots kicking ass then you will have an awesome time.
just when critics though they had a say in the success of summer blockbusters…
yeah i went to the 12:05 a.m. showing last night in DLP and it holds about 165- seats i think and it was jammed pack the 5 theaters that showed it was sold-out and they kept adding more shows because there was a line of about 60-70 people wanting tickets so im going to stick with my prediction of about $250 million in 5-Days
This summer has been so weird, it's hard to say what this movie will do. Suddenly, word of mouth means a lot more than it used to. See the failure of Terminator earlier, and the huge success of Up, Star Trek, and The Hangover. I think this movie is going to open huge, but it is going to drop like a stone in July. I see a $50 million opening day, then move to about $25 million for Thursday, and do a $91 million three day weekend, giving it a $166 million for the five day. Next weekend, I expect a huge drop off to about $35 million for the weekend. I think this one will either hit $300 million or come just shy. The original film actually had decent word of mouth while it was out, so it had decent legs. It's been a long while since I've seen a tentpole take not only a critical beating, but the fanboys haven't been saying much good about it. That being said, it doesn't look like any big $300+ million movies are coming out in July or August with perhaps Harry Potter taking the top spot of the summer. But that's only if the word of mouth is good. This could be the summer of word of mouth.
@Katie,
You know who isn't f**kable, Zach Galifinakis, yet The Hangover is huge. Also who isn't; Carl, the old man in Up, also doing huge business. Star Trek had a couple, but again, banging took a back seat to story and character. I know I'm being too optimistic, but maybe, Hollywood may consider story over stars, quality over loud explosions, and people can have a good time just laughing and getting caught up in a story. I know I'm hitting Transformers this weekend (Optimus Prime = f**kable). We can only pray that this trend will continue.
Also read an early review of Public Enemies that was negative. But that's just one review. The reviewer = not f**kable.
Hey I hope UP makes it to $300 million too, but I was just saying that there's a possibility that it wont. Yes it's on the same track as Nemo but that movie was a complete blow out hit with all audience. All. Kids, Teens, Grown Ups, Elderly. As good as UP is I get the feeling that there isn't as big a hit as Nemo. Plus Nemo cam out in 2003. If you know anything about Hollywood box-office performance you know that 6 years creates alot of difference. It's funny to even say it but movies actually had a little more staying power back then (yes even as far away as 6 years ago). Also I don't think it will be getting it's 3D screens back, regardless of how IceAge does.
Anyways Transformers 2 made an estimated $16 million with midnight showings. That's second best to TDK which made $18.5 million. Like I said expect a HUGE 5 days for this garbage. Although some people have been quick to point out that TDK opened on a Friday midnight as opposed to a Wednesday midnight. Last time I checked though people work on Friday too so it shouldn't make too much of a difference.
i work at a movie theatre and alot of you people don't now what your talking about real people love this movie just like i each time we showed the movie at my theatre people clapped at the end no body talk about the story or any of that they just enjoyed it . thousand said they were coming back to see it again word of mouth is going to be great for this movie many of my friends who work for the company i work at about which is 10 different theaters and they say everyone loved just like theater i work at which is about 70 people at the theater and everyone of loved it when up we have saying in for us who work in the theatre industry when the idiot critics like a movie that means garbage and 90% percent of the time were right so for those of you who want to see this movie go and enjoy and don't listen to these idiot 's i see the reaction from real people coming out of the theatre
I enjoyed the movie, maybe not quite as much as the first, but I liked it. I predict people with their own thoughts will see the movie and ignore the comments of the "Movie Reviewers" and some of the word of mouth. I may go see it again. I saw the first TF movie 4x. If you're into a good action flick, I'd say go see it!
It's only the people who like the movie have to justify why they like it, the rest of us just say it sucks