Box-Office Oracle: Dec. 4 – Dec. 6, 2009
COMMENTS
It's Blind Side at the top, finally.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 5 Weeks in a Row
This prediction is high, I know, I'm only knocking it 25 percent. But it's only getting stronger, and word of mouth is carrying the day. Get ready for a flood of Sandra Bullock stories come Monday.
Estimate: $30.1 million
This, on the other hand, is soooooo November. The teens have moved on, and it will fall 58 percent this weekend. Twilight went from a 62 percent drop to a 50 percent drop. So it follows that New Moon will go from a 70 percent bleed to a 58 percent dip.
Estimate: $18.0 million
3. 2012
It performed admirably last weekend, and the lack of competition will help prop it up for one more round.
Estimate: $11.1 million
I read on another site that this wasn't a "flop" but the numbers don't lie. A reported $200m production budget is difficult to justify without some huge box-office.
Estimate: $8.5 million
Evidently a site called this the "Best Ninja Movie Ever?" Have they not seen American Ninja? I'm dipping it 45 percent just for hubris.
Estimate: $7.3 million
7. Brothers
The acting is tremendous. But I can't imagine people are going to want to take this in given the trailers. It just looks too bleak for mass consumption.
Estimate: $7.3 million
8. Planet 51
Traditionally, the first weekend in December is a wasteland. Does anyone know why that would be? Perhaps everyone is too tuckered out from family and Thanksgiving?
Estimate: $6.6 million
Another well-executed film that has no real audience, though I don't get why De Niro isn't receiving a little more Oscar heat. He's quite good here.
Estimate: $6.4 million
10. Armored
It's either this or Fantastic Mr. Fox in the tenth slot. They aren't screening this one for critics, which, even if you hate critics, isn't a real good sign.
Estimate: $6.3 million
How say you? Am I too bullish on Blind Side? Will New Moon make another run? Or am I sleeping on a new release? Drop some knowledge on us in the comment section, predictions requested early and often.
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Our top 2 numbers are terribly close, but I promise I made these a couple hours ago. Clearly, as 3, 4 spots are a bit radical, I suppose.
1. The Blind Side – 30.8
2. New Moon – 19.8
3. A Christmas Carol – 12.7
4. Everybody's Fine – 12.6
5. 2012 – 10
6. Old Dogs – 9.9
7. Brothers – 8.6
8. Planet 51 – 7.6
9. Ninja Assassin – 7.5
10. Armored – 7.5
11. Fantastic Mr. Fox – 4.9
12. Precious – 4.4
Regardless of Everybody's Fine's openin performance, I think it can make $40m in 4 weeks by low, Christmas-season, drops.
I really think that my total BO is excessively high, but after 2 weekends ago, I guess I have to adopt mfan's 'build it and they will come' policy. Whether they 'built it' this weekend, who knows, but policy adopted.
I hope you are right about The Blind Side, but peoples criticism of my estimates have taken it's toll.
1.The Blind Side $21.5 million+
01) The Blind Side 29.3 M
02) New Moon 19.4 M
03) 2012 11.2 M
04) Everybody's Fine 9.7 M
05) Old Dogs 9.3 M
06) A Christmas Carol 8.3 M
07) Brothers 8.2 M
08) Ninja Assassin 7.1 M
09) Armored 6.8 M
10) Fantastic Mr. Fox 5.7 M
1. The Blind Side 27.9M – I saw it. It's okay. But the world needs a feel good film this time of year. And this is it.
2. New Moon 17.5M – I saw this as well, and man, I don't get it. I don't get it at all. And I think that everyone who wanted to see it have seen it. I think it won't make $400M and I think perhaps it will have trouble getting to $300M
3. A Christmas Carol $10.2M – Small drops and this one will make it to over $150M by Christmas and then disappear.
4. Armored 8.5M – I think tracking is saying that this film is going to be the best opener of the new films. Maybe putting too much on this. But I've seen more commercials for this one than the other two.
5. 2012 8.4M
6. Old Dogs 7.6M
7. Brothers 7.3M – I think this one will not do well at all. Not getting Oscar buzz which is the only thing that gets these dark depressing films to play in December. It may not be a depressing movie but the trailer does not make it feel like a movie you'll be feeling good at the end.
8. Everybody's Fine 6.2M I'm thinking that my numbers for the new releases are too high now. And the numbers aren't that high.
9. Planet 51 5.8M
10. Precious 5.4M
1. The Blind Side – $28 Million
2. New Moon – $20 Million
3. Brothers – $16 Million
4. 2012 – $10 Million
5. Precious – $ 9 Million
6. Old Dogs – $7 Million
7. A Christmas Carol – $ 5.5 Million
8. Everybody's Fine – $5 Million
9. The Fantastic Mr. Fox – $4 Million
10. Armored – $3 Million
I think "Everybody's Fine" has a chance to do some nice box office… it has the look of movie with holiday spirit combined with an appealing cast. I think it could break out to $13m or more.
Ninja Assassin: 75% DROP!
1.The Blind Side-$28.2 (-30%)
2.Everybody's Fine-$16.3 (N/A)
3.New Moon-$23.2 (-45%)
4.2012-$12.6 (-30%)
5.Brothers-$11.4 (N/A)
6.A Christ. Carol-$10 (-38%)
7.Precious-$8.1 (+14%)
8.Old Dogs-$7.9* (-71%) and Fantastic Mr. Fox-$7.9 (+13%)
9.Armored-$4.8 (N/A)
10.Ninja Assassin-$3.2 (-76%)
@m1: Switch 2 and 3.
I think Up in the Air can manage a $100k PTA like Precious in its 1st weekend. What do you guys think?
@mfan: Don't pay any attention to them! This is mostly just for fun anyway.
My estimates:
[1] The Blind Side – $25M
[2] New Moon – $20M
[3] A Christmas Carol – $10M
[4] 2012 – $8M
[5] Brothers – $7.5M
[6] Old Dogs – $7M
[7] Armored – $6.5M
[8] Ninja Assassin – $6M
[9] Planet 51 – $4M
[10] Everybody's Fine – $3.5M
@m1: Naw. I love Up in the Air very, very much, but I believe that George Clooney is not Oprah. Clooney will get the total gross numbers, but Oprah has the PTA race under lock-and-key.
im gonna be crazy and call Armored at the top 20 million. Then Twlilight New moon, then blind side.
I wish we could skip this crappy weekend filled w/ Matt Dillon films and move on to Up In the Air, Invictus, and Lovely Bones already.
Oh well, finals next week will keep me bogged down all weekend anyways.
1) New Moon: $19.3mil. I dropped it 55%. A bit more than Twilight's 3rd weekend, but not as wide a margin as their 2nd weekends. Also, films that don't appeal as much on Thanksgiving (films not aimed at the entire family, that is, and Twilight definitely isn't aimed at the entire family) tend to hold worse on Thanksgiving and better on the weekend after.
2) The Blind Side: $16.0mil. You are being so incredibly bullish it amazes me. While non-family films hold better on the weekend after Thanksgiving, family films hold decidedly worse. Non-family films normally drop 48-55%. Family films normally drop 62-66%. I was kind and only dropped this one 60%. Who knows? It may do a bit better than that. But to beat my prediction for Twilight, it has to drop by only 51%, which, with its amazing Thanksgiving hold (signifying its strong family attraction), I just don't see happening. Contradictory at first glance, I know, but it makes sense when you think about it. Families go to the theater in droves on Thanksgiving; the weekend after, they've all split their separate ways and the teens once again dominate.
3) Brothers: $12.5mil. Don't go saying a movie is too bleak for mainstream audiences, now, at least not without really thinking about it. After all, "The Dark Knight" was pretty damn bleak. I think this movie WILL attracts a respectable audience, and all because of its trailer and premise. The premise? A man falls in love with his dead brother's wife, and she falls in love back, only for them to find out that the brother/husband didn't die after all. It's such a pulpy, scandalous premise that people can't really resist. I'm guessing it'll have a similar appeal that "Law Abiding Citizen" had in that it's the kind of movie you're really curious about, no matter how many people say it's bad. Being the weekend after Thanksgiving, I can't put it as high as "Law Abiding Citizen," but I think it'll at least clear $10mil.
4) 2012: $8.5mil.
5) Old Dogs: $7.6mil
6) A Christmas Carol: $8.6mil. Although family films normally suffer the huge drop after Thanksgiving weekend, the exception is when that family film is a Christmas movie. "Four Christmases" and "The Polar Express," despite their family turnout on Thanksgiving weekend, only fell 46% and 44%, respectively. I sandwiched Christmas Carol between the two at 45%.
7) Everybody's Fine: $6.4mil. Now I may be being the buliish one. But Christmas movies released in the beginning of December tend to fail, especially when another has already been released on or before Thanksgiving. That this film doesn't have a compelling premise only works against it.
8) Ninja Assassin: $6.0mil. I dropped it 55%.
9) Armored: $4.2mil. I may also be being bullish with this as well. It has fail written all over it.
10) Precious: $3.9mil. I dropped it 45%. It's not getting a theater hike this weekend. I hope it gets one next weekend, though. I hope to see it on Saturday.
Wheres TRANSYLMANIA :) I got 1,200 screens :)
@steve: Screens weren't released when I went live… but somehow I don't think 1,200 is gonna cut it. :)
@joker47: That's a bold call. If it works out I'll have to salute you.
@Dan Tralder: It's definitely a strange weekend to predict in terms of total cume… I'm just going with trendlines, but it doesn't necessarily balance out against total cume. In other words, things won't just fall 70% because the calender changed to December… I think.
@JM: My $21.5 million for The Blind Side is something of a worst case scenario. You seem to be using "Family Film" as some kind of code for "kid's movie" based on your examples of Bolt, and Madagascar 2. I have seen The Blind Side three times, and there have only been a few people under 18 years old there, each time. Shouldn't younger people be at a "family film"?
Brothers IS too bleak for mainstream audiences during the holiday. Did they release TDK at Christmas??? It's only being released now for possible Oscar buzz. Oscar buzz is not just valuable for the box office a'la Slumdog Millionaire, but good for DVD sales, television rights, and a films long term interest in the public mind. Even if Brothers is able to pull in $10 million, perhaps with it's star power, that would represent a nearly total failure, with an espected total gross of less than Sandra Bullock's, All About Steve.
I agree that New Moon is falling behind on doubling it's Twilight numbers.
Brothers gives you the whole movie breakdown in the trailer. There is no intrigue, just Tobey McGuire.
1. New Moon – $21.1 million
2. The Blind Side – $19.3 million
3. Old Dogs – $8.9 million
4. 2012 – $8.8 million
5. Everybody's Fine – $7.9 million
6. A Christmas Carol – $7.4 million
7. Brothers – $7.3 million
8. Armored – $6.7 million
9. Ninja Assassin – $6.3 million
10. Planet 51 – $5.2 million
I want Armored to be a good movie. All the reviews I've read have been really good. BO wise, the trailers have been all over TV. It's also odd for a movie 2 weeks already in release to top the BO in its 2nd week, but stranger things have happened.
1) The Blind Side 25.8 between my 'bad mood' prediction & Laremy's optimism
2) New Moon 18.5
3) 2012 9.6
4) Armored 8.1
5) Brothers 6.9
6) A Christmas Carol 6.8 using JM's research
7) Ninja Assassin 6.0 same as hitman
8) Everybody's Fine 5.9
9) Old dogs 5.0 70% drop: prescription drug jokes in trailer a turnoff
10) Planet 51 3.7 testing JM kid's drop theory
This isn't as much to do with the box office as a personal dilemma: my wife's company is sponsoring a free movie day. Like the families and whatnot get a free film, popcorn, soda, etc. As a holiday gift. Neat. Bad news: he movies to choose from are 2012, christmas carol, old dogs, blind side, or new moon.
How's that for a knee in the junk huh?
@The Check Spot: So far, we are the only ones who believe the order of the new releases will be Armored, Brothers, then Everybody's Fine. I also agree with you that something is going to surprise on the downside (but nothing on the upside).
@gobeatbox!: While The Blind Side is not exactly Ninja Assassin, there is some football in it. Make your wife happy by getting her a TEAM SANDRA t-shirt.
Christmas Carol to return to No.1? It is December and Christmas isn't far now. People might want to see it now before that junk Avatar snatches the 3D screens.
Christmas Carol will probably stick around the top 10 for the duration of the holiday season, but probably not in the top 5. The word of mouth just doesn't seem to be strong enough, and that $200M price tag is looking pretty crazy.
Still, a movie like this could be re-issued whenever Disney wants. If it proves a hit on DVD, this just might find its way back to the big screen in 2011 or 2012 in the style of A Nightmare Before Christmas.
@ Laremy, According to BOM users grades, 3 Ninjas was the best Ninja movie with three sequels made from it.
@dw: In the UK, A Christmas Carol went back to No.1, leapfrogging New Moon and fending off the Wild Things. Type in Carrey's Carol tames the Wild Things.