Box-Office Oracle: Dec. 24 – Dec. 26, 2010
COMMENTS
Little Fockers goes head to head with Tron: Legacy. And only one will survive!
The streak is very much in jeopardy, as the smart money has Little Fockers taking the weekend. But my intellect tells me the Fockers franchise is fading fast, and will face a domestic drop that's similar to Shrek Forever After. Let's break this thing down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 7 Weeks In A Row
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| Christmas weekend was really strong last year, but that was when Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, and The Squeakquel patrolled the box office. This year feels much more like 2008 to me, when Marley and Me and Bedtime Stories finished first and second. I'm dipping Tron: Legacy 35 percent, the most of the weekend, but it will still have just enough to take the crown. This also feels like the type of film that will do well overseas, with a 2x multiplier, much like Clash of the Titans. Prediction: $28.62 million | |
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Shrek the Third opened at $29k, the fourth version only managed $16k per theater. Meet the Fockers opened at $13k back in 2004, so is $8k per theater all that unreasonable? Terrible reviews and that PG-13 (vs. Tron: Legacy's PG) will hurt it. Or my streak will end. But I'd rather go down betting against Focker. Someone has to keep hope alive.
Prediction: $28.29 million
3. True Grit
I'm probably too ambitious here, $7k per theater is twice as much as No Country for Old Men made once it hit 1,000 theaters. But at some point the niche becomes mainstream, or else nothing would ever change.
Prediction: $21.33 million
4. Yogi Bear
The budget was $80m. I assume most of that went to pic-a-nic baskets.
Prediction: $12.31 million
5. Black Swan
Have you seen this Black Swan poster? Nice, right? The budget here was a mere $13m, so they are pretty much golden no matter what happens from here on out.
Prediction: $11.62 million
6. The Fighter
Another low budget effort ($25m), there's only upside for Wahlberg and company.
Prediction: $10.31 million
Probably needs at least $350m in worldwide cume to guarantee a sequel. It's going to need a huge international number to hit that.
Prediction: $10.03 million
I love that it's opening on Saturday, so word can't filter out on Friday. Perhaps we could take this one step further and just not open it at all?
Prediction: $9.6 million
9. Tangled
Question for the group: is the script not vanilla enough for international dollars to pour in?
Prediction: $5.3 million
10. How Do You Know
The sad fact of the matter is that now we'll never know. They spent $120m in an attempt to let us know. But it didn't work. What a disaster.
Prediction: $4.86 million
How say you? Want to take Fockers on top? See better things in True Grit's future? Here's your chance to predict away — Brad will be back on Sunday to recap all the action. Merry Christmas, party people!
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Unfortunately, The King's Speech has a wide opening day on Saturday, so it can't hit the top ten. But I finally get to see Black Swan.
fockers-35 million and i hate america :-)
tron-25 million
gullivers-10 million
can i just add that a firend dragged me to how do you know last night and we got in a theater wide discussion during the movie about how awful it is. such a terrible film
That sounds terrific!!
1. TRON: LEGACY 27.5 M
2. Little Fockers: 26.8 M
3. True Grit: 19.4 M
4. Black Swan: 12.3 M
5. The Fighter: 11.2 M
6. Yogi Bear: 10.6 M
7. Narnia 3: 10.3 M
8. Gulliver's Travels: 9.9 M
9. Tangled: 5.8 M
10. How Do You Know: 4.8 M
Why are you only dipping Narnia and The Fighter 20%, Tron 35%? In exactly the same (Dec 24-26) weekend back in 2004, all movies had ordinary drops. Lemony Snicket fell 59% if I recall correctly. Tron's WOM isn't that good, and Narnia has a lot of competition.
Also, you have to remember audiences largely despised Shrek the Third, but completely embraced Meet the Fockers. I agree that Little Fockers is going to make less (the franchise simply lost momentum, see Rush Hour 3, The Mummy 3 etc.) but I don't think it will drop that hard. Not that I wouldn't love for it to happen.
Christmas at the movies is all about compromise. Most everyone has seen the first two Fockers movies (they're on TV all the time), so families will likely go with what's familiar and the Fockers will win the weekend.
1. Little Fockers – $40.5M It's going to be huge, at least for the start. But hopefully society will learn and the Christmas season will not be as big as Universal hopes.
2. Tron Legacy – $23.2M Would be bigger if Christmas Eve wasn't on Friday. Should hold well over Christmas holidays next week, and probably finish around $175M when all is said and done.
3. True Grit – $19.2M I can't wait to see this one, I hope others are feeling the same way.
4. Gulliver's Travels – $14.9M Would've hit close to $20M if opening on Wednesday instead, but the trailers are so meh. It's this or Yogi Bear, or Tangled or, well, I'm pretty bad when it comes to predicting Christmas.
5. Yogi Bear – $11.4M
6. The Fighter – $10.8M
7. Black Swan – $10M
1.) Little Fockers – $ 34.5 million
2.) Tron Legacy – $ 31.2 million
3.) True Grit – $ 17.8 million
4.) Gulliver's Travels – $ 13.5 million
5.) Black Swan – $ 10.5 million
6.) The Fighter – $ 10 million
7.) The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader – $ 9.2 million
8.) Yogi Bear – $ 8.5 million
9.) Tangled – $ 5.8 million
10.) How Do You Know – $ 5.2 million
Christmas eve on Fri will hurt everyone from holdovers to new releases.
(fri-Sun)
1.Little Fockers: 27.8mil. Will do solid numbers from the Wed-Sun period but it won't have the same legs as its predecessors (7.3mil opening wed already, a significant drop from "Parents"). Saw it last night and it was ridiculously bad. Nothing more than "paycheck" movie for everyone involved.
2.Tron 2: 25.3mil. ok hold overall. Its doing respectable numbers during the weekdays.
3.True Grit: 22mil. Definitely will be the B.O. story of the weekend.
1 – Tron: Legacy $34.3 million
2 – Little Fockers $30.8 million
3 – True Grit $17.1 million
4 – Black Swan $11.3 million
5 – Yogi $11.2 million
6 – The Fighter $10 million
7 – Narnia 3 $9 million
8 – Gulliver's Travels $8.8 million
9 – Tangled $ 6.2 million
10 – How Do You Know $6 million
Little Fockers – $34mil
Tron Legacy – $27mil
True Grit -$18mil
Black Swan – $13mil
Gullivers Travels – $11mil
Kings Speech $2.5mil (not top 10 but still)
7.3mil opening Wed for Little Fockers which way off the 12mil opener for Meet the Parents. 50mil+, better yet 45mil through Sunday just became a longshot in itself.
Fri-Sun predictions:
1.Fockers= 26.7mil (41.5mil 5-day)
2.Tron Legacy= 24.2mil
3.True Grit= 19.8mil
4.Yogi Bear= 13mil
5.Gulliver= 12.1mil
My mistake. It was 12mil opener for Meet the Fockers instead of Parents.
Introductions all around…
1. Little Fockers — 38 million
2. Tron Legacy — 26 million
3. True Grit — 15 million
4. Black Swan — 10 million
5. Yogi Bear — 9 million
Good to be with you….
Damn,sorry, updated numbers (Thought we were going longer).
For Dec. 24-26
1. Little Fockers 27 million
2. Tron Legacy 23 million
3. True Grit 18 million
4. Black Swan 12 million
5. Yogi Bear 10 million
1. Fockers-$40 million
2. Tron-$28 million
3. Gulliver's Travels-$17 million
4. True Grit-$13 million
5. Black Swan-$10 million
6. The Fighter-$9 million
7. Yogi Bear-$8 million
8. Chronicles of Narnia-$7 million
9. Tangled-$5 million
10. How do You Know-$3 million
You guys are way too low. Sure LITTLE FOCKERS opened softer on Wed. but XMAS DAY is the biggest movie day of the year.
1.) LITTLE FOCKERS- 44.3 mil
- A lot of people didn't know it came out yesterday and this is people's first choice to see on Christmas Day. These people don't care about the reviews.
2.) TRON LEGACY-28.6 mi
- Its Christmas families need movies.
3.) TRUE GRIT-28.4 mil
-Great reviews
4.) YOGI BEAR- 18.7 mil
- Its been doing good over the week. Families need a movie they can take the kids too.
5.) THE FIGHTER- 14. 3 mil
- Seems more like a family movie to see than Black Swan
I'm not sure that True Grit will have good WOM. I loved the movie, but the impression I've gotten is that people are going in expecting No Country and what they're really getting a fine, traditional throw back to gunslinger flicks of the 40's and 50's. Which makes it too slow and dated for todays moviegoers.
That doesn't make much sense since No Country is itself much slower than traditional westerns of the 40's and 50's. If anything I'd expect most moviegoers to be pleasantly surprised.
No Country was heavier on violence which will always appeal to American movie goers, and it was marketed more towards the art-house crowd. Where as Grit is going for wider audience that may not be interested in a more deliberatley paced film.
Yogi Bear and The Fighter aren't going to increase.
"Seems more like a family movie to see than Black Swan."
You clearly need to see this content review: http://www.commonsensemedia.org/movie-reviews/fighter
Here are ones for True Grit, Black Swan, and Little Fockers:
http://www.commonsensemedia.org/movie-reviews/true-grit
http://www.commonsensemedia.org/movie-reviews/black-swan
http://www.commonsensemedia.org/movie-reviews/little-fockers
Fockers 30.5, people are stupid.
Tron 29
True Grit 22.8
Black Swan 13
The Fighter 12
Gulliver 10.2
Narnia – 9.3 could go higher based on Xmas day
Yogi – 8.2, I think even the lowest common denominator realizes they need to skip this one.
Tangled – 6.5
How Do? – 4.9
Gulliver is opening on saturday? Have these people ever released a movie before? That's sort of box office suicide, isn't it?
Anyways, I think Jeff Bridges get's #1 and #2
1. Tron Legacy $29 Million
2. True Grit $24 Million
3. Little Fockers $23 Million
4. Black Swan $13 Million
5. Yogi Bear $12 Million
6. The Fighter $11 Million
7. Narnia $8 Million
8. Tangled $5 Million
9. Gulliver $4 Million
10. The King's Speech $2.5 Million
It is not suicide when Saturday is the Christmas Day. But it is suicide when you have a crappy movie that no one want to see. That is the case of Gulliver Travelers.
Interesting comment on "Tangled". What's going to hurt it internationally is the lack of stars. But Mandy Moore did well, and Donna Murphy just was fantastic as Mother Gothel. What a singing voice!
Lack of stars totally hurt How to Train Your Dragon, Despicable Me (Carell isn't much of a star outside US) and The Princess and the Frog.
Oh wait.
1. Little Fockers- $30.8 million
This would be a respectable opening, even though this is only about two thirds of what Meet the Fockers opened to six years ago. It was stalled by True Grit on Wednesday, but it should pull in a lot of the family audience on Christmas day.
2. True Grit- $23.8 million
This one had a very nice opening on Wednesday, and should ride the momentum to a $20+ million three day. This one will probably have very strong word of mouth, so it could end up making over $80 million domestic. That would be a big win for Paramount, as the international dollars are sure to be solid as the Coens do very nice business overseas as well.
3. Tron Legacy- $18.3 million
4. Yogi Bear- $9.9 million
5. Chronicles of Narnia- $9.5 million
I think True Grit has a chance at over $100 million.
Little Fockers – 28.7M
Tron Legacy – 28.6M
True Grit – 21.5M
Yogi Bear – 12.0M
Gullivers Travelers – 10.9M
1. Little Fockers- $30.2 million
2. Tron Legacy- $26.4 million
3. True Grit- $19.8 million
4. Black Swan- $11 million
5. Yogi Bear- $10.3 million
Bonus: 7. Guillivers Travel- $8.7 million
fockers.- 36.3
tron.-29.7
true grit.-18.9
Fockers got off to a tepid start on Wednesday, so I think this means that Tron Legacy may actually win the weekend. While I thought TL was a somewhat bland movie, I must admit there are many things I admire about it and I really hope it comes out on top this weekend. I mean, anything but the Godfockers!
True Grit grossed U$5.5M on its opening day, which I think is fantastic. It will probably begin the weekend with a U$9M head start, and word of mouth is bound to spread. A opening in the U$20M range is definitely possible, I think. And might this be the Coens' first U$100M grosser?
1. Little Fockers, $35.3 million. This won't be as big as Meet the Fockers, but plenty of people will see it.
2. Tron Legacy, $28.6 million.
3. True Grit, $22.8 million. It'll be nice to see a western do well again. If Fockers does a bit worse than I'm predicting this just might have a shot at the win next weekend. That's probably wishful thinking though.
4. Yogi Bear, $11.3 million.
5. Gulliver's Travels, $10.1 million. The Saturday opening makes for a difficult PTA prediction.
6. Black Swan, $8.8 million. I'm giving it a $6,000 PTA on the expansion to 1,400 locations. I finally saw this today and it absolutely blew my mind. Definitely one of the best of the year.
7. The Fighter, $8.5 million. I loved this as well. Sports movie cliches abound, but all the family dynamics set it apart. Wahlberg underacts as always (save The Departed), but what an incredible performance by Christian Bale, and wonderful performances from Amy Adams and Melissa Leo as well.
8. Tangled, $7.8 million. Christmas should help this hold really well.
9. The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, $7.4 million.
10. The Tourist, $4.6 million.
The Saturday expansion of The King's Speech makes predicting for it difficult, so I'll just leave it out. I'll finally be seeing it on Sunday. For those who celebrate, I hope you all have a very merry Christmas!
All are 3-day predictions
1. Little Fockers: 27.5mil. Its not hitting 30mil+ over the Fri-Sun period if basing on box office precursors. Sure, Xmas on a Saturday will be solid, but it all evens out because the 24th on Friday will hold everything down. Non-existent marketing coupled with horrendous reviews not just from critics, but casual moviegoers who have seen it are going exert its toll in a big way. It's only hope is families but they have plenty of better-way better-options out in the marketplace.
2. Tron Legacy: 23mil
3. True Grit: 21mil
4. Yogi: 12mil
5.Gulliver: 11.3mil
Little fockers: 25.4mil (3-day), 39.4mil (5-day)
well since fockers is pushing out over 7 million a day then one can only assume that it will get abaout 14 million a day this weekend, especially Saturday. everything else is about right. But who really thinks gullivers is going to do that bad? I think more like 30-40 million even with a saturday release whichi is wierd?
yeah xmas eve hurt these movies but christmas and after is always huge!
Not in the UK. On Christmas Day, cinemas are shut due to the fact us Brits stuff our faces with turkey (or something simmilar) at christmas dinner.
5mil Friday for Lil Fockers. At best it should be able to maybe hit 10mil, perhaps 12mil on Xmas Day, and maybe 8-10mil on Sunday. Overall, 30mil+ over the Fri-Sun period is out the window and 26-28mil gross is in store, and 42mil for the 5-day. Legs will be so-so at best even with the lucrative week before New Years Holiday coming.
Is 'How Do You Know' now officially one of THE bombs of the year?