Box-Office Oracle: Dec. 11 – Dec. 13, 2009
COMMENTS
Only one logical choice at the top, and it's Disney's wide release.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 6 Weeks in a Row
The second weekend in December can go either way. Last year the top twelve films made $82m. But in 2007 I Am Legend cleared $77m all by itself. Into that fray steps The Princess and the Frog, Disney's 2-D New Orleans animation. Predictions vary wildly on this title, from $25m on other sites to $57m in the comments section last weekend. But Lilo and Stitch opened at $35m in 2002. So I'm putting it slightly below there, even with inflation. I just don't see the demand out there for this title.
Estimate: $34.3 million
2. Invictus
It's only getting 2,125 theaters, a clear indication Warner Bros. doesn't quite know what to do with it. Is it an Oscar film? Or a sports movie? An inspirational tale? It will still have the second best per theater average, it just doesn't have enough buzz or theaters to mount a serious charge.
Estimate: $12.8 million
I will put it at a 45 percent dip, slightly better than last weekend's 50 percent drop. $133m and counting on a production budget of $29m. They'll take it.
Estimate: $11.5 million
With $580m it's in the top five of worldwide box-office this year, only 2012, Harry Potter 6, Ice Age 3, and Transformers 2 have more. It doesn't look like it can rise any higher though.
Estimate: $6.1 million
5. Brothers
I think you'd have more luck with a World War I movie right now. People simply aren't interested, and this was oddly marketed to boot.
Estimate: $4.8 million
We had a nice discussion about the international prospects of Christmas movies on the comments last Sunday, it remains to be seen if this Christmas Carol can escape the "domestic far surpassing international" trend previous holiday films have adhered to.
Estimate: $3.8 million
7. Armored
I never got around to seeing it. How about y'all? Alert commenter Joel was nice enough to let me know Old Dogs is a baddie, saving me two hours of my life. Much obliged.
Estimate: $3.4 million
8. Old Dogs
I was looking into a theory that PG was on the run… but, nope, four of the top ten have been PG the past two years. In fact, 2007 was a more "adult" year, with seven of the top ten box-office titles being rated PG-13 and above.
Estimate: $2.9 million
9. 2012
$150m domestically, $520m internationally. Staggering, no? Plus, Sony distributes internationally like a pro, so the reported $100m paid to Roland Emmerich wasn't a waste.
Estimate: $2.8 million
10. Everybody's Fine
This would have been a perfect weekend for Up in the Air to go wide. Or Lovely Bones. Either could have picked off the top slot. Instead, we're left with a bottom five that just looks sad.
Estimate: $2.2 million
How say you? Bold enough to pick another title up top? Is my $34m too high, or too low? And what do you make of the box-office chances of Invictus? Comments appreciated and encouraged!
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1.) The Princess and the Frog – $ 27.5 mil
2.) The Blind Side – $ 14 mil
3.) Invictus – $ 13.5 mil
4.) New Moon – $ 8 mil
5.) A Christmas Carol – $ 5.5 mil
6.) Brothers – $ 4.8 mil
7.) 2012 – $ 4.5 mil
8.) Old Dogs – $ 3.5 mil
9.) Armored – $ 2.8 mil
10.) Everybody's Fine – $ 2.5 mil
I think $34M is to high. The Princess and the Frog is looking to a opening just shy of $30M. I also think Invictus will be bigger. 2012 is big internationally, just like This is It and Angels and Demons. You have right, Sony knows what international markets want.
My Prediction:
1-The Princess and the Frog: $28.7M
2-Invictus: $18.1M
3-The Blind Side: $13.1M
4-New Moon: $7M
5-A Christmas Carol: $5M
Early Next Weekend Prediction: Avatar only have 3300 theaters, what leaves me with a prediciton of an opening just shy of $65M. Did You Heard About The Morgans? is heading to a $15M opening.
1) The Princess & the Frog $37 tempted make it 32.5, but no
2) The Blind Side $15.1 million next weekend average drop for most popular of
post thanksgiving week carnage
3) Invictus $13 million a compromise between two schools of thought, we'll see
4) New Moon $7.4 million more frontloaded than twilight
5) Brothers $3.9 million history has not been kind to movies opening
on…we need a name for the post thanksgiving weekend.
6) A Christmas Carol $2.9 million The last time I thought a new
children's movie would take over from A Christmas Carol, I was wrong.
But it's got to be true sooner or later. Without P&F $5.5 million
7) Armored $2.8 million
8) 2012 $2.6 million
9) Old dogs $2.5 million
10) Ninja Assassin $2 million
John, is this true? Avatar will only open in 3300 theaters?
@Harmonica: What do you mean, only? That's big!
1.The Princess and the Frog-$38.5 (+5,102%)
2.Invictus-$19.7 (N/A)
3.The Blind Side-$15.3 (-25%)
4.Brothers-$7.2* (-25%)
5.New Moon-$8.3 (-47%)
6.A Christ. Carol-$5.5 (-26%)
7.2012-$4.6 (-30%)
8.Old Dogs-$3.5 (-49%)
9.Armored-$3.3 (-50%)
10.Ninja Assassin-$2 (-60%)
@m1: Switch 4 and 5.
@Harmonica: Yeah, BOM has it at 3300+ right now. So figure probably something like 3450 when all is said and done.
@m1: And 27 movies have gotten 4,000+ this decade, so Avatar's numbers being so low is puzzling. It must have something to do with the 3-D requirements.
Laremy, doesn't "Up" have a higher worldwide box office than New Moon? Box Office Mojo has Up's worldwide total at $506.9 million, but that hasn't been updated. I thought Up's worldwide total was now more toward $680-$700 million?
I think The Princess and the Frog could easily hit $45 million, this weekend. My prediction is $45.3 million this weeked for it. The movie itself did very well in only 2 theaters, $2,757,290 to be exact. The demand is there.
I don't see Princess winning this week due solely to the fact that most families will wait to see TPATF over the Christmas holidays instead of this weekend. I'm going bold once more and calling Invictus on top…(probably will be wrong, but I'm a crazy guy)
Invictus-25 million
Princess and the Frog-18 million
The Blind Side-12 million
New Moon-8 million
A Christmas Carol-7 million (This title will be steadily rising over the next 2 weeks I'd imagine)
and we all know Avatar will win next weekend. I see it making 60 million opening weekend.
I'm going to go out on a limb for this weekend:
[1] Princess and the Frog – $58M
[2] Blind Side – $14M
[3] Invictus – $13M
[4] New Moon – $9M
[5] A Christmas Carol – $6M
[6] Brothers – $5M
[7] 2012 -$4M
[8] Old Dogs – $3M
[9] Armored – $2.5M
[10] Everybody's Fine – $2M
i know locally Up In the Air is gonna be in some of the big theaters, think it's expansion is big enough to eek into the top 10? also, what happened to Precious?
@JAB: It had a 67% drop last weekend. If it doesn't go into a wide release soon, I don't think it has much of a chance to sneak back in.
@JAB: Up in the Air is expanding to 72 sites. That could be enough to crack into the top 10, but I don't think it will be. It will definitely be in next weekend if it expands again.
1. TPATF: 29.7
2. Blind Side: 13.9
3. Invictus: 12.0
4. New Moon: 7.1
5. A Christmas Carol: 5.7
Next week-
Avatar- 70m+
Morgans- 15m
1. The Princess and the Frog – $42.7M It has a high per screen average certainly, and I think that it will translate well. After all, it's tracking near 30 million I believe and usually kids films do much better than the tracking numbers.
2. Invictus – $15.2M I think the main draw here is Morgan Freeman finally playing Nelson Mandela. That should draw lots of curiosity. And the reviews haven't been horrible, and somehow inspirational sports movies have been doing well lately. See #3.
3. The Blind Side – $14M Not too big a drop here. Especially with the Sandra Bullock Oscar buzz starting to come out in full force.
4. New Moon – $6.7M I'll be glad when this one is off the charts. What's wrong with teenage girls?
5. A Christmas Carol – $5M
6. Brothers – $4.4M
7. Armored – $3.4M
8. Old Dogs – $3.2M
9. 2012 – $2.7M
10. Up in the Air – $2.4M I think Up in the Air sneaks in here with about a 30,000 per screen average, very similar to Precious.
1. The Princess and the Frog–$41.8mil. I wouldn't underestimate this movie. The general consensus I've gotten is that a whole lot of people are excited for this movie. All my college friends want to see it. It's a good choice for families, especially since many of the other G and PG movies have bombed ("Old Dogs," "Planet 51"). Its only real competition is "A Christmas Carol," which is entering its 6th week. And it won't get more competition until the 23rd, when "Alvin and the Chimpunks 2" comes out.
2. Invictus –$15.4mil. BOM poll numbers compared to "Gran Torino" suggest that this movie may get $20mil. Everything else suggests it'll get closer to $12mil. So I decided to land around $15mil. Audiences could like this, and its PG-13 rating and uplifting premise make it accessible to families. But its lack of strong advertisement and general buzz may mean nobody really knows/cares about this film. "Gran Torino" played trailers around this time of year, but opened in limited release so that it could pull in large PTA numbers while its trailer gathered interest among mainstream audiences. I believe "Invictus" was originally going to follow a similar release pattern, but then opted just to go into wide release. This worries me. Films that are planned for a platform release, only to be suddenly switched to an immediate wide release, normally do so because the movie has major flaws and the studio doesn't think it'll generate the proper buzz in limited release. That's what happened with "Blindness" and "Taking Woodstock," both directed by acclaimed directors, and they failed at the box office.
3. The Blind Side–$14.0mil. This will hold pretty decently, down about 30%. It may hold even better if "Invictus" fails and doesn't take away the sports-loving audiences.
4. The Twilight Saga: New Moon–$7.8mil.
5. A Christmas Carol (2009)–$5.8mil. Great holds through the holidays. While "The Polar Express" had an 11% drop at this time frame, I put this film at -25% this weekend because it's facing competition from "The Princess and the Frog," whereas "Polar Express" only had to deal with "Ocean's Twelve" and "Blade: Trinity," both far from its target audience.
6. Brothers–$5.0mil
7. 2012–$4.2mil
8. Old Dogs–$4.0mil
9. Armored–$3.2mil
10. Ninja Assassin–$2.9mil.
There's a long shot chance that "Up in the Air" may make the Top 10, if its PTA is high enough.
@The Check Spot: I didn't have the stomach to go any lower on Invictus with it's star power, both in front and behind the camera. Without that, this movie would bomb. It's not mainstream at all. Rugby? The Blind Side wasn't even released in Europe because it had american football. Politics? Along with money and religion, usually a taboo topic. Setting? A long time ago in a country far, far, away. Whatever this movie makes will be a true testament to star power. Some people say star power is less important these days because it seems less neccessary in blockbusters. But the vast majority of mid-level hits seem star driven.
AVATAR: 95 million opening
just watch the reviews
Princess and the Frog will open to around 30 million or less, somewhere in the ball park of A Christmas Carol. You have to remember those 2 theaters it has been in they have been paying like $30 plus dollars a ticket.
has any movie with an entriely original story, not pirates-lord of the rings, etc.. opened to over 100 million ever? could AVATAR do it and be the first?
1. PrincessFrog – $40.9
2. Invictus – $18.1
3. Blind Side – $11.2
4. New Moon – $6.2
5. Brothers – $5.4
6. ChristmasCarol – $5.0
7. Armored – $3.8
8. Old Dogs – $2.8
9. 2012 – $2.8
10. EverybodyFine – $2.6
11. Ninjas – $2.1
12. Planet 51 – $1.8
nothin special. lets see how this turns out
1) Princess and the Frog – $27.8
2) Invictus – $16.7
3) The Blind Side – $10.2
4) The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $9.7
5) The Christmas Carol – $5.9
I see Princess and the Frog under performing due to (what I see as) poor marketing, considering the prospects it gives.
Invictus I see doing well per theatre, simply because of the star prospects and oscar buzz.
The Blind Side will lose momentum due to competition on the family film front from Princess and the Frog.
New Moon will continue its steady decline.
And Christmas Carol will get a slight boost as we reach closer to Christmas.
What do you all think about these predictions?
@americanrequiem:
If we were to exclude movies that are sequels ("New Moon", "The Dark Knight"), movies based on comic books or novels ("Harry Potter", "Spider-Man", "300", "The Da Vinci Code") as well as excluding Pixar films (which in itself is a brand name, so I don't think it really counts), the highest grossing opener that would be left is "The Passion of the Christ" (which, if you think about it, is probably the most popular source material for any film, ever) at $85 million, followed by "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Bruce Almighty".
So to answer your question, no, no movie that has been based on original material has opened to over $100 million. Will "Avatar" beat that trend?
We've got a week to find out.
Also, I agree with the prediction for "Princess and the Frog". It'll do about what "Enchanted" did two years back. This movie has a bit less demand, and is even more geared towards young women/girls than "Enchanted" was, but this'll hold up well throughout the holidays, probably closing in the vicinity of $130-140 million. A far cry from Disney's Renaissance period, but still good.
To add on to my last post -
I feel like kids no longer have as much interest in "classics", and Princess and the Frog seems to be more of that style. It saddens me to say that Alvin and the Chimpmonks and other movies like those will stand a far better chance at the box office…
Am I being pessimistic or is this really true?
What a quiet weekend at the box-office. I wish Up in the Air was going wide so I could see it a second time without having to drive an hour.
I wonder how much airlines pay to show in-flight movies? I don't think Up In The Air will be shown. A movie showing lot's of people getting fired? Airlines also avoid kid's films and disaster movies. Especially airline disaster movies!
Because of Princess and The Frog released under the Disney name I see A Christmas Carol rising again.
In The UK Paranormal Activity gunned down New Moon, while that was happening A Christmas Carol, which is now in it's 5th/6th week of release, leapfrogged New Moon.
Next week I see A Christmas Carol's big drop due to los of 3D Screens.
With Princess and the frog and Avatar in the top 2 next week, it will be the best top 2 since Up and Hangover in May!
Does Avatar have a chance to break $100m with only that many theatres?
1. The Princess and the Frog – $32.5 million (and long legs, too)
2. The Blind Side – $13.8 million (btw, can't really understand your ways at predicting this movie. The second weekend it rises 18% and you predict that the weekend after that it'll lose 25%, even though it's post-Thanksgiving weekend. So it actually loses 50% and now you have it dropping 45%. Strange, cause it's the middle of December and there's very little competition, nothing should prevent it from dropping more than 35%).
3. Invictus – $11.6 million (will perform in the vein of Michael Clayton, The Informant and other WB adult flicks like that, but eventually gross about $65-75 million because of the holidays and Oscar buzz)
4. New Moon – $9.5 million
5. A Christmas Carol – $5.7 million (and next week, it's basically gone)
6. 2012 – $4.5 million (surprisingly little lose of theaters should translate to a nice drop)
7. Old Dogs – $3.9 million (thank God this movie ain't making shit, absolutely horrible)
8. Armored – $3.3 milllion
9. Up in the Air – $3.0 million (yeah)
10. Planet 51 – $2.7 million
@Nick: oops, I meant "nothing should prevent it from dropping less"
Yeah, as stated here, I was kinda hoping Avatar would be released in 4000+ theaters.
I think everyone is completely underestimating the opening b.o. debut of Invictus. Its got Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon and its directed by Clint. Old people will shove up in droves. Not to mention the biopic aspect and some fans of rugby. But I guess we will see.
@Stephen: As we saw with Michael Jackson's This Is It, old people are also slow. They won't be in a hurry to go to the box office.
@Harmonica: It's not just theaters, it's screens. A movie selling out around 5,550 screens can do two hundred million on a weekend.
@Nick: My Blind Side prediction is somewhat based on the total weekend cume too, not just the individual film. But we'll see.
@Mystery: I can only go off Mojo on 'Up,' I haven't seen any competing numbers yet. Do you have a source?
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/series/Pixar.php
@Laremy
This and several other websites has Up at around $680 million.
I think I'll start calling the weekend after Thanksgiving "The Dead Zone", as far as box office goes.
1.Princess and the Frog: 38.7mil. Nobody caters to kiddie girls better than Disney.
2.Invictus: 24mil.
3.The Blind Side: 12.8mil
4.New Moon: 8mil.
5.Brothers: 6.5mil
6.A Christmas Carol: 5.3mil. 3D screens will soften the drop with Princess and the Frog now in play. Expect a hard fall next weekend when Avatar swipes the majority of 3D screens.
Up is at 683mil worldwide(390mil+ overseas) and is only entering it's 2nd weekend in Japan. It's going to finish north of 730mil by the time it's run ends there. Mojo just updated the grosses.
Oh okay, thanks for the update, Tyson.