Box-Office Oracle: Aug. 7 – Aug. 9, 2009
COMMENTS
G.I. Joe is going to win. But will it crack $50m?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week in a Row
We know it's not going to do Transformers numbers. The buzz simply isn't on the same level. So we'll deduct 47 percent (from the T-Formers sequel) and call it good. I'm seeing it tonight, at midnight, so I'll be back on Sunday with an official Oracle take.
Estimate: $45.9 million
I'm a little bullish on this title. I think the ladies remained under-served in the market, and this is a very enjoyable story.
Estimate: $22.3 million
3. Funny People
It's gained a theater this weekend. If you're the owner/operator of that venue give us a comment. We want to know what it is about the second weekend of Funny People that so captivated you.
Estimate: $12.0 million
4. G-Force
It's going to be close on hitting $100m domestically. It's made $74m so far. Another $10m this weekend. That's $84m. Say $5m next weekend, $2.5m the weekend after that. That's $91.5m. It's been making around two million per weekday… so okay, maybe it won't be close.
Estimate: $9.9 million
Right now Half-Blood Prince is $39m behind Azkaban's $795m worldwide cume for fifth place. The leader in the clubhouse is Sorcerer's Stone $975m. Doesn't look good for Half-Blood Prince does it?
Estimate: $9.2 million
Not going to make much money. I'd say The Ruins is an apt comparison.
Estimate: $7.6 million
The Proposal is $160m in front of The Ugly Truth for the romantic comedy genre. Which just proves that a mediocre movie is still better than a flat out bad one.
Estimate: $7.3 million
8. Orphan
There's not much to say here. It starts losing theaters in a big way this weekend and then it's on to the DVD in six weeks.
Estimate: $4.1 million
This one gains 551 theaters this weekend. That's going to help, and I'm giving it a healthy $5k per theater. Someone needs a date night, right?
Estimate: $4.1 million
The lack of marketing continues to murder this title. The Hangover could theoretically nail tenth place… or The Proposal.
Estimate: $3.9 million
What do you think? Am I too low on G.I. Joe? Or too high on Julia & Julia? It's going to be a slow weekend at the theaters, but that's no reason not to get involved.
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I usually don't pay much attention to the numbers but I just got back from a Blockbuster near my place and the staff were already setting up a John Hughes shelf. The guy in front of me got Planes, Trains, and Automobiles (great flick)! Might take a chunk out of the box office?
"It's gained a theater this weekend. If you're the owner/operator of that venue give us a comment. We want to know what it is about the second weekend of Funny People that so captivated you." I actually laughed out loud for this. Unfortunately I think it's going to drop a bit more.
1. G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra 49.8m$
2. Julie&Julia 19.5m$
3.Funny People 11m$
4. G-Force 10.5m$
5. Harry Potter 9m$
6. The Perfect Getaway 7.9m$
7. The Ugly Truth 7.2m$
8. 500 Days of Summer 4.1m$
9. The Hangover 4.1m$
10. Orphan 3.9m$
1. G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra – $48M I thought this one was going to be a grand slam, originally thinking $60M at the least, but with Paramount having zero critic screenings, that puts some warning signals out there. Shows lack of confidence in teh movie from the studio, no matter how Paramount tries to spin it. Couple that with the negative buzz the film had about Stephen Sommers being locked out of the editing, and this one will just get fanboys and not much else. I have a question if anyone can answer, what was the biggest opening weekend for a film not screened for critics?
2. Julie and Julia – $20M I'm a bit surprised that they are only releasing it in 2300 theaters. I figured that it would be a bit bigger release. Still, this is the one getting the ladies into the theaters, and it has the one two punch of Meryl Streep and Amy Adams. Also, lots and lots of food. And you've seen America. We love food.
3. Funny People – $11M The wheels came off this one really quick. Is this the end of serious Sandler? I hope not. I like serious Sandler. But Universal may be leaving the "Films for Adults" market after this summer.
4. Harry Potter 6 – $10M
5. G Force – $9.5M
6. A Perfect Getaway – $7M The Ruins comparison was pretty much right on, Laremy.
7. The Ugly Truth – $6.5M
8. 500 Days of Summer – $5M I think word of mouth is starting to make this the Little Miss Sunshine of the summer of 2009.
9. Orphan – $4.5M I saw this one. Wasn't as bad as I thought it would be.
10. The Hangover – $4M
omg i just saw that G.I. Joe will open at 4007 theatres. Its a huge number .
1º G.I. Joe – $50M
2º Julie e Julia – $18M
3º Funny People – $15M
4º G-Force – $10M
5º Harry Potter – $9,9M
Thinking a bit higher for #1 and #2. G.I. Joe could be seen as the last "event film" of the summer and people may crowd for that. Paramount has played the marketing cards right, for instance, the trailer was attached in front of Star Trek and Transformers 2, so it's not like people don't know it's out.
For Julie & Julia, I wanna say Devil Wears Prada but it simply doesn't have the theatre count. Still, I don't think $23.5m is impossible.
I hope Funny People drops similarly to past Apatow films but the WOM "must-see-it" buzz that came with films like The Hangover haven't really surrounded FP. Fingers crossed.
1.) G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra – $54.6m
2.) Julie & Julia – $23.5m
3.) Funny People – $14.2m
4.) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $10.7m
5.) G-Force – $10.3m
PS – Can you believe they're doing District 9 midnight shows a week from now? How could there be any audience for it at that time? I'm pissed I have to work it at my theatre, otherwise I would have booked off (and probably seen it myself).
Goingg to see G.I. Joe right now!
@Eli:
Dude, they have midnight showings for everything these days. Last year, they were having a midnight showing for "Babylon A.D." I kid you not.
Hey Laremy, or anyone else here, what is the lowest opening weekend for a film in over 4000 theaters? The only one I can find is "Over the Hedge" with $38 million. So basically "G.I. Joe" has to be horrible and completely die for it not to hit that mark. Me, I say that it'll go to at least $49 million, and I wouldn't be surprised if it opens at $5-10 million above that.
Wow, the theater counters are a bit higher than I thought. Want to make a quick adjustment:
1. G.I. Joe – $54M
2. Julie and Julia – $25M
You say it doesn't look good for Half-Blood Prince, but it is on pace to hit about 300mill domestic and it will do over 600 foreign which means over 900 mill worldwide. How does that not look good?
Just finished seeing G.I.Joe the movie is a fun ride with good eye candy and Sienna Miller is great as the baroness.
1. G.I. Joe – $35 Million (HUGE flop)
2. Julie & Julia – $24 Million
3. A Perfect Getaway – $15 Million (big surprise of the weekend)
4. Funny People – $10 Million
5. Harry Potter – $9 Million
Im really wondering what there expecting to get from GI Joe, I gotta think its going to take in about Fantastic 4 type $$$.
First, a bit of clarification. I was indeed (like most of my graduating class of 2001) infatuated with G.I. Joe ("Real American He-Roes! Go Joe!"); however, since graduating from 6th Grade into junior high, I've yet to rewatch a single episode of the funloving, Cobra-hating, franchise.
Still, this movie looks BIG. Its got something for everyone. For people in their late mid-20s to late 30s there is of course the nostalgia factor (something that no doubt has spawned the success of the Transformer franchise & Star Wars before it), for the teenagers there's the explosion/sex factor and for the kids there's – well, has their ever been a movie more aimed at kids?
I predict this film will speed its way to a worldwide boxoffice of $500+ million; not a record breaker by any means, but enough to spawn a sequel. I also believe this film will easily make $57+ million its opening weekend. Its final U.S. haul will end up being around $195 million.
Just saw G. I. Joe. Gotta say the movie really got me and it's really entertaining. Sienna Miller is amazing as the baroness. In some parts the CGI was a little bit too fake but still it was a fun film also it have one of the best action sequence I have seen in my life which is the one that takes place in Paris.
Predictions:
G. I. Joe: 51.3
Julie&Julia: 19.8
Fynny People: 12.6
Harry Potter: 11.3
A Perfect Getaway: 10.2
G-Force: 9.4
The Ugly Truth: 6.2
(500) Days of Summer: 4.7
Orphan: 4.1
The Hangover: 3.9
1. G.I. Joe – $56.2 million. Last huge blockbuster of the summer, 4000+ theaters, etc. I got it at $14k per theater, which should be enough.
2. Julie & Julia – $21.6 million. I believe it actually has a chance to make more, but it still is no Devil Wears Prada or Mamma Mia. $7.3k per theater sounds about right.
3. Funny People – $13.8 million
4. G-Force – $11.5 million
5. Harry Potter 6 – $9.9 million
6. The Ugly Truth – $7.8 million
7. A Perfect Getaway – $7.6 million
8. (500) Days of Summer – $5.5 million
9. Aliens in the Attic – $4.9 million
10. Orphan – $4.4 million
G.I. Joe will top $50 million.
Funny People, I'm sad to say, will fall big–at least 60%. Look at its weekday drops. They are similar to "Pineapple Express," which dropped around 58% in its second weekend, even though it burned off some of its demand with a Wednesday opening. But I'm going to see it tomorrow, so there's at least $8 more for it.
The Hangover may make it into the Top 10. In fact, I'd put it there. It's only losing 18% of its theaters, and it doesn't have a major competitor for this week… or for the rest of the summer, actually. It looks like it's going to cruise past "There's Something About Mary" when adjusted for inflation, which proves once and for all its box office success. I don't even like adjusting for inflation because I think it unfairly ignores the rise of DVD and home video, so when "The Hangover" is looking to become the highest-attended raunchy comedy of all time, it's just icing on the cake.
And while we're talking about adjusting for inflation, has anyone else been marveling over "Star Trek" surpassing every single film in its franchise in attendance? And that franchise is 30 years old. Talk about unprecedented success! Even TDK, when it beat Batman's attendance, only had to contend with a film 19 years older than itself.
Seeing GI Joe tommorow with friend, but than again we're British so it'll only count for domestic, but people seem to have a good feeling about it where I'm from.
I was high on GI JOE, until they did not screen the movie to critics, that is a red flag. Heck, even "Getaway" was screened. You might be high on "Julie and Julia" but seems to a great movie.
1.) G.I. Joe – $57.5 mil
2.) Julie and Julia – $19.5 mil
3.) Funny People – $13 mil
4.) Harry Potter 6 – $11 mil
5.) G-Force – $9.5 mil
6.) The Ugly Truth – $8.7 mil
7.) A Perfect Getaway – $6.0 mil
8.) Orphan – $4.8 mil
9.) 500 Days of Summer – $4.5 mil
10.) Ice Age 3 – $4.0 mil
GI Joe will flop. Reactions have been very mixed from the critics and public alike, and it already has so much bad buzz surrounding it. It might open big on Friday (around 16 million) but it will fall harshly on Saturday, and again on Sunday. Predictions:
1. GI Joe- $39.2 million
2. Julie and Julia- $19.9 million
3. G-Force- $10.5 million
4. Funny People- $10.0 million
5. Harry Potter 6- $9.8 million
6. The Ugly Truth- $7.4 milllion
7. Aliens in the Attic- $5.5 million
8. 500 Days of Summer- $5.3 million
9. Orphan- $4.5 million
10. The Hangover- $4.0 million
Everytime I say something about G.I. Joe someone tells me they are going to see it. More people I know are going to see it than I remember from Fast and Furious. Am I hanging out with the wrong crowd or is movie going to seriously surprise on the upside?
@J.C: If it DOES make $900 million worldwide then it's all good. People are wondering if this phenomenal cash machine is losing steam. There are some small signs, but the numbers will tell us for sure. Here are the numbers I have for Harry Potter worldwide grosses:
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) $968.7
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) $879.0
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) $794.4
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) $892.2
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007) $937.0
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009) $757.2 and counting
If the final gross falls between 794 and 879 million dollars, some people will say it's slowing down. But, it also looked that way after film three, so I guess you are right to tell people/critics to stuff it.
p.s. the above numbers might be slightly off but only by a couple of million