Box-Office Oracle: Aug. 27 – Aug. 29, 2010
We're taking The Last Exorcism, but we're open to counterarguments!
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| Does anyone else like Emily Rose comparisons here? I see this one doing okay because it's the first horror film in a good long while (no, Piranha 3-D is not horror, it's purposeful cheese) and it's against only holdovers. I've heard from one source it was decent and from another that it wasn't good. So I'll assume it's somewhere in the middle and no one will complain too much. Plus, the budget had to have been under $30m, so they'll start making money back within a few weeks. Yep, a pretty typical slow weekend, it's starting to feel like late April around here (Nightmare on Elm Street). The money has to go somewhere, right? I've got the top twelve at $100m cume, which would be low but historically apt. Note: Avatar isn't getting enough theaters to make the top ten. Re-releases always seem to underwhelm. Prediction: $22.12 million | |
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How say you? Is my Last Exorcism number too high? Do you like Avatar to break on through again? Any takers for Takers? Comment now, or forever hold your peace!
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Actually laremy, fandango lists Avatar as a nationwide release.
Nationwide, yes, but 800 theaters means it needs a PTA of $6000 to reach $4.8m and crack laremy's top ten. Even with all shows being in 3D with the $3 to $4 premium, I just don't see that happening. None of tomorrow's shows (near me) are sold out yet at fandango.
It is nationwide, but only 811 theaters.
Can it qualify for best picture since it is supposedly "new"
No
@Brad Brevet: Oh, thank goodness!
"Staying in the top ten! And DiCaprio keeps getting richer."
I'm willing to bet he wouldn't have much of a problem letting his tax break expire.
The premise for 'The Switch' was GENIUS. I hear no one complaining about Y Tu Mama Tambien, Inglourious Basterds, Pulp Fiction, The Hangover, Juno, or The Full Monty, so could we PLEASE just get over it?
Genius might be a stretch…. but it was a good film, a lot better than I expected it to be. I'm personally very glad I took a chance and saw that instead of Pirahna 3D.
I did not laugh.
Also, I don't see The Last Exorcism making much more than $15 million this weekend. I think Expendables has enough lasting strength to battle Takers for the No. 2 spot.
1. The Last Exorcism – $21.2 million
2. Takers – $14.6 million
3. The Expendables – $10.15 million
4. Avatar: Special Edition – $8.5 million
5. Eat Pray Love – $7.35 million
6. The Other Guys – $6.75 million
7. Vampires Suck – $6.1 million
8. Lottery Ticket – $5.33 million
9. Nanny McPhee Returns – $5.32 million
10. Inception – $4.9 million
The Last Exorcism – 17.5M
Takers – 13.0M
Expendables – 9.5M
Eat Pray Love – 8.0M
The Other Guys – 6.1M
1. The Last Exorcism…… 15.8 million
2. Takers…………………………. 10.7 million
3. The Expendables………….. 9.1 million
4. Avatar: Special Edition………… 8.3 million
5. Eat Pray Love…………….. 6.9 million
6. The Other Guys……………. 5.7 million
7. Nanny McPhee Returns….. 5.5 million
8. Inception…………………… 5.0 million
9. Vampires Suck…………. 4.6 million
10. Piranha 3D………………. 4.2 million
• I think its a grave mistake to leave out Nanny McPhee returns.
Its Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday intake has consistently kept it at #4.
• Piranha 3D needs a bigger drop because Avatar is going to steal all those wonderful 3d screens. Why? Because theaters trust Avatar unlike this cheesy horror remake.
• Lottery Ticket and The Switch are going to drop considerably more than that. They're going off the charts. I'd say Lottery Ticket does a 4 million while The Switch goes for a 3.8
11. Lottery Ticket…………….. 4 million
12. The Switch………………… 3.8 million
Laremy had nothing much to say today, huh. One sentence per film. :-)
BTW: I see Avatar grossing 3.2M
1. The Last Exorcism, $25 million. I think the Emily Rose comparisons are apt here, especially since there hasn't been a horror film in quite a while.
2. Takers, $8.8 million. I think this will bomb brutally. As in The Losers or Armored bad.
3. The Expendables, $8.4 million. Another 50% drop, like clockwork. I'd like to see Van Damme and Seagal in the sequel, and maybe Arnie with an actual role, if he's no longer governating by then.
4. Eat Pray Love, $6.6 million.
5. The Other Guys, $5.5 million.
6. Inception, $5.4 million. This should gain a couple spots from last weekend. Anyone think this might hold even better over the next couple weekends? The Dark Knight was still rolling along at #3 until like mid-September. Of course it faced virtually no competition whatsoever. But maybe people will say, "Well, there's nothing else out, let's just see Inception again." I know that's my plan this weekend.
7. Vampires Suck, $4.8 million.
8. Lottery Ticket, %4.2 million.
8. Nanny McPhee Returns, 4.2 million.
8. The Switch, $4.2 million. That's right, I've got a three-way tie for 8-10. Shows you how close some of last weekend's numbers were, and/or how little I care to put any kind of detailed analysis into such bad movies. For the record, I've got Piranha at $3.5 million.
Of course Avatar is the wildest card this weekend. By most accounts it will need somewhere around a $6,000 PTA to crack the top ten. I'm saying it doesn't get there, but wouldn't be that surprised to see it get up to even $10,000, which would be good for a fourth place finish.
I have Avatar at $5.8 million. I think I have seen more television advertisements for Avatar than for Last Exorcism, but it appears Last Exorcism will do around $16-18 million.
Avatar will do between 1.5M-12.5M
Avatar's business this weekend will likely come only from repeat business. I mean, let's face it. If you haven't seen Avatar by now, you clearly don't want to see it. And 10 extra minutes will probably do little to change your mind. I think it can pull in $4M max.
I think Exorcism will do around 14.5M
Lottery Ticket has been losing a lot of steam since opening weekend. I think The Switch will top it this weekend.
Really? People are glad they saw The Switch over Piranha? I like Jason Bateman and Jeff Goldblum but the film is very average. Piranha is no master piece but at least its a hell of a lot fun. As for this weekend… 1. The Last Exorcism. 18.2m. 2. Takers. 11.8m. 3. The Expendables. 9.4m. 4. Eat Pray Love. 6.7m. 5. The Other Guys. 5.8m. 6. Vampires Suck. 5.6m. 7. Piranha 3D. 5.2m. 8. Inception. 5m. 9. The Switch. 4.8m. 10. Lottery Ticket. 4.8m.
According to BoxOfficeMojo's twitter feed, The Last Exorcism cost a whopping $1.8 million to make.
Just $1.8 million. Granted, that probably doesn't include prints, advertising, viral marketing, and all the other stuff that takes the film to make it to the big screen, but that means that "Exorcism" will make probably 3x its budget back on Friday alone.
Personally, I think that it'll be #1 with a fairly solid $26 million, give or take $3 million. Everything else I don't really care about enough to predict. Takers will bomb, Avatar will probably make less than double digits (but could surprise)…is it award season yet?
"Takers" looks like it could be fun, though I'll probably end up making an art house trip to see "Animal Kingdom."
I'm going to say $18.5mil for The Last Exorcism.
As for Takers, it's getting $8.0mil at best. This looks to fail like "The Losers," only worse.
Avatar re-release… hmm, I'm not sure. If I match up BOM polls with the polls for the Toy Story/Toy Story 2 3D rerelease, my formula brings it to about $7.0mil. That's over $8600 PTA, which seems too high. TDK, upon rerelease, got $1907 PTA from 350 theaters, but its rerelease wasn't as widely advertised, and the hoopla around its excellent IMAX usage is nowhere near as big as the hoopla around Avatar's excellent 3D usage. Also, Avatar's barebones DVD release in April won't be nearly as satisfying for fans as TDK's December DVD release just two months before its theatrical rerelease. So what's the verdict? Will people, tired of bad 3D, give good 3D one more shot? Or will they just ignore it and wait until the big DVD release in November? I'll fall between the two, but leans towards the latter. $5000 PTA for a $4.1mil weekend total.
As much as I hate saying this I wouldn't be suprised if Takers brokeout. This movie has been building quite a bit of buzz over the last couple of weeks especially on the radio and everybody at my school seriously wants to see it. I mean look at that cast. Tween and teen girls are going to go batshit over it.
The Last Exorcism – 22.5M
Takers – 18.2M
Expendables – 9.5M
Eat Pray Love – 7.8M
The Other Guys – 6.5M
1. TAKERS – $24.3 million
2. EXORCISM YAWN – $13.6 million
3. EXPENDABLES – $9.9 million
4. OTHER GUYS – $7.1 million
5. EAT PRAY DIE – $6.4 million
there ya go. i'm not seeing anything this weekend. we are in the dead weeks for a while, friends.
have a relaxed weekend everyone! :)
Here are my calls!
1: Takers – $15.4 million
2. Last Exorcist – $13.8 million
3. Expendables – $9.6 million
4. Other Guys – $7.4 million
5. Eat Pray Love – $6.6 million
I'm only going to do a top 5 I think because there's still so little worth bothering about in the charts really.
1 – The Last Excorcism: $17.9 million. No major horror has been out for a while so it may drag in folks looking for a little bit of the frights.
2 – Takers: $12 million. I think this year has not been kind to most action film contenders and most have fallen. I wouldn't think this heist variation will be able to substantially reverse that trend, especially with little in the way of real star power in it.
3 – The Expendables: $9.9 million. In the face of little major competition it might hold a little better. I don't think so, but it might.
4 – The Other Guys: $6.5 million. At least it will trundle past $100 million before it finishes up. Walhberg hasn't had one of those for 7 years, so it'll be good for something on his CV.
5 – Eat Pray Love: $5.9 million. Not seen it, but it seems to be losing the battle in comparison to Julie & Julia in terms of heavier weekend drops. Might get to about $70 million by the time it's done.
1. The Last Excorcism
2. Avatar: Special Edition
3. Takers
4. The Expendables
5. The Other Guys
6. Eat, Pray, Love
7. Vampires Suck
8. Piranha 3D
9. Lottery Ticket
10. Nanny McPhee Returns
11. Inception
12. The Switch
1.The Last Exorcism – $16.8
2.Takers – $13.2
3.The Expendables – $9.2
4. AVatar : Special Edition – $7.5 Million
5.Vampires Suck – $6.7
6.Lottery Ticket – $5.9
7.The Other Guys – $5.7
8.Piranha 3D – $5.5
9.Inception – $5.2
10.Nanny McPhee Returns – $4.9
I thought Centurion came out this week? why no prediction
I'm not so sure the top 12 can muster $100 million this weekend. People have too many other options these days. I'll say $85 million.
The Expendables reportedly pulled in $10.7 million opening weekend in China, more than any hollywood film except Avatar. Nostalgia plus Jet Li seems to be working.