Box-Office Oracle: Apr. 9 – Apr. 11, 2010
It's going to be an extremely close race for the top slot!
This feels like an ambush. On one hand, Date Night is an April release with a limited romantic comedy demographic. On the other hand, Clash of the Titans hasn't received exactly glowing word-of-mouth. It's a real pickle. If I had a third hand I'd mention I hadn't even heard of the tenth place film until I started writing this article. But I don't have a third hand. So we'll keep that last part quiet.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 5 Weeks In A Row
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| It will fall 55 percent, which isn't a very good result given the $125m production budget. Clash of the Titans needs another $200m or so to start thinking about a profit. It looks as though people have avoided the 3-D, or at least not championed it, which has to be causing a few panicked meetings around Hollywood. Personally, and this is an odd position to be in, I seem to have liked the film more than the average person. For a critic, that's rare, we're usually advocating films no one has heard of or crushing films everyone is seeing. So why did I enjoy Clash? I suppose it has something to do with not knowing anything about the film going in. It felt like a pure actioner to me, no real plot, but it didn't seem like anything was missing either. Anyway, I'm taking it to win… but I'm guessing plenty of y'all are lining up to pick against me. Prediction: $27.74 million |
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What will you pick instead? Date Night! This movie is another perfectly fine film, not a "must-see" but not actively offensive either. But financially speaking I can't project it above $7845 per theater, which is $1000 better per than Bounty Hunter and Baby Mama. That's the most I can give it. Will it be too low?
Prediction: $26.47 million
It fell 33.7 percent last week, I think it keeps trending positively with a 27.5 percent drop. Solid reviews, a family demographic, and no competition means they'll do well this weekend.
Prediction: $21.03 million
I have three films dropping 55 percent due to front-loading. This is one of them.
Prediction: $13.18 million
And this is the other. I see nothing that makes me think this film will bounce back this weekend.
Prediction: $7.21 million
If you can figure out where they spent the nearly $40m on this project you're doing better than me. How much do hot tubs cost, anyway?
Prediction: $4.75 million
The smartest move here was being the first 3-D film out of the gate in 2010.
Prediction: $3.66 million
Another $40m budget debacle, but at least they've almost hit $70m in worldwide cume.
Prediction: $3.4 million
Just keeps hanging around, like Matt Damon in Rounders.
Prediction: $2.75 million
It should bring in the church crowd, or around $2500 per screen.
Prediction: $2.24 million
That's all I've got. How say you? How many of you will put your chips on Steve Carell and Tina Fey? It wouldn't be a bad bet, I just couldn't make the math work. Now it's in your court, comment away!
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matt damon in swingers? i must have missed something. it has been a while since i saw it.
Accident, he meant Rounders. All fixed.
My money is on Date Night winning, WOM has been pretty terrible with Clash of The Titans and there is no other big releases this week.
My prediction:
Date Night: $32.6 million
Clash of the Titans: $22.4 million
How To Train Your Dragon: $21.2 million
Why Did I Get Married Too: $14.1 million
The Last Song: $6.3 million
I'm inclined to agree with you, I'm not seeing the interest in Date Night really.
1) $28.5m — Clash of the Titans
2) $24.3m — Date Night
3) $21.1m — How to Train Your Dragon
4) $12.9m — Why Did I Get Married Too? [the bigger Tyler Perry's movies open, the greater the second weekend drop.]
5) $7.8m — The Last Song
6) $5.5m — Alice in Wonderland
7) 5.1m — Hot Tub Time Machine
8) $3.2m — The Bounty Hunter
9) $2.1m — Diary of a Wimpy Kid
10) $1.9m — Letters to God
1. Date Night–$42.2mil. I'm going way bullish on this title. Why? Because, if you want to compare films, "Couples Retreat" is a far better comparison than "Bounty Hunter" and "Baby Mama." Both Couples and Date are PG-13 films aimed at a slightly older audience than the normal romantic comedies (think: most romantic comedies feature younger people finding romance, while these two films feature married people rekindling romance), and both Couples and Date are being released wide against no competition ("Letters to God" doesn't even count, its wide release is a fluke, and it's not going to cut into any demographic at all). And Couples Retreat managed $11500 PTA. Date Night is going to do AT LEAST that, and I think it'll do more. Why? Because 1) reviews are FAR better; it's hovering near fresh on RT right now, while Couples Retreat barely managed to reach 11% (and for a good reason: it was jaw-droppingly bad, and after seeing it, I couldn't believe it had held so well in theaters). 2) Tina Fey and Steve Carrell are much larger draws than any of the stars in Couples Retreat. That they're being paired together only makes their draw even stronger. 3) Date Night has a more interesting premise. Couples Retreat major draw was that it was about rekindling marriages, and that it was travelogue porn. Date Night, however, promises adventure, wacky shenanigans, and hopefully some laughs. It has the ability to cross over to the younger teen audience in a way that Couples Retreat didn't.
So, in all, maybe I'm actually lowballing this estimate. $12500 PTA is what I'm going with, though, and it'll be more than enough to win the weekend.
2. Clash of the Titans (2010)–$25.7mil. -58% drop. Word of mouth is not so good. It'll make a profit, though, especially once overseas grosses are taken into account.
3. How to Train Your Dragon–$20.5mil. Now that it has no competition, I expect it to hold better this weekend. I put it at -29%.
4. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too?–$11.7mil. More like -60%. Tyler Perry's films are always greatly front-loaded.
5. The Last Song–$8.6mil. Opening on Wednesday probably softened its front-loaded blow, so I think it'll manage to keep more than half its business.
6. Alice in Wonderland (2010)–$5.1mil.
7. Hot Tub Time Machine–$5.0mil.
8. The Bounty Hunter–$3.7mil.
9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid–$3.4mil.
10. Letters to God–$1.5mil. God, I hope this makes even less. We don't need another soapbox preachy film in theaters. "Facing the Giants" and "Fireproof" started a putrid and disgusting trend. I can't believe Christians go to them: far from preaching Biblical messages, they simply heap on unrealistic platitudes that were created by Christian culture and have nothing to do with the Bible at all. If I remember correctly, I listed "Facing the Giants" as the worst film of the past decade. It was that goddamn bad.
1.Date Night-$30.5 (N/A)
2.Clash of the Titans-$15.3 (-75%)
3.How to Train Your Dragon-$15.2 (-48%)
4.Why Did I Get Married Too?-$12.5 (-57%)
5.The Last Song-$10 (-38%)
6.Alice in Wonderland-$10 (+21%)
7.Hot Tub Time Machine-$5 (-38%)
8.Diary of a Wimpy Kid-$4.7 (-11%)
9.The Bounty Hunter-$3.5 (-42%)
10.Shutter Island-$0.9 (-38%)
1.Clash Of The Titans-31.3 m.-This will still attract people, older kids,teens, and still many Christians because of Easter.
2.Date Night-27.6 m.-I don't really see this appealing to teens but most adults who haven't seen Titans.
3.How To Train Your Dragon-23.2 m.- Still many kids who want to see this one. I have to say it was a good movie.
4.The Last Song-16.7 m.-I'm not losing hope with this one yet. Teen Boys will see Clash of the Titans and teen girls will see this.
5.Why Did I Get Married Too?-15.9 m.- This will lose a lot. Most adults are probably gonna pick Date Night this week.
6.Hot Tub Time Machine-9.3 m. still some adults who want to see this one. Mostly Guys because it is a crude comedy.
7.Alice in Wonderland-5.6 m.-It's lost practically all of it's 3-D screens and viewers. Few kids who haven't seen it will see it this week.
8.Diary Of A Wimpy Kid-4.7 m.-Kids will still see it. Mostly ones who STILL haven't seen it.
9.The Bounty Hunter-2.3 m.- Considering Clash of the Titans,Date Night,Why Did I Get Married Too, and Hot Tub Time Machine are in theaters, few adults will see this.
10.Letters To God-.78 m.-What is this? I haven't seen any marketing for this. Maybe some Nuns will go see it.
I think your way too low on Date Night.
1) DATE NIGHT- 35.4 mil
-I am going a little higher than Couples Retreat and a little lower than Get Smart. Steve Carrel and Tina Fey are one of the funniest people in the buisness at the moment. I am sure crowds will check this out due to there fan factor. This also should appeal to audiences since its one of the only action comedy's out there (beside Bounty Hunter) and will most likely do good. Also the critics have been very kind to it.
2) CLASH OF THE TITANS- 28.3
-I am predicting a big drop due to bad WOM but I'm with you Laremy I enjoyed this movie also. I thought it was an enjoyable action flick- which is what it was meant to be.
3) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON- 20.6
-This movie opened soft but is doing very well and i think with the nice numbers its been making on the weekdays and good WOM it will hit into the $20 mil.
4) WHY DID I GET MARRIED TOO?- 12.5
-I am having it follow a similar path to Madea's Family Reunion with about a 65% drop.
5) THE LAST SONG- 8.5
-These movies never hold on very well. But maybe a good WOM will help it a tad.
What are your thoughts?
Hate to be the one to tell you this but 12% on RT does not exactly count as glowing praise.
12% for which movie?
Sorry forgot to put the title, The Last Song.
It's target audience loves it. Tweens are now starting to trickle in with their parents. At least the more persuasive ones. Ten stars.
1. Date Night $31.5 Couple's Retreat burned me once
2. Clash of the Titans $25.9
3. How to Train Your Dragon $22
4. Why Did I Get Married $13
5. The Last Song $11 Sparks type drop/best case but doable
6. Hot Tub Time Machine $4.7
7. Alice in Wonderland $4.6
8. The Bounty Hunter $3.3
9. Diary of a Wimpy $3.2
10.Letters to God $1.5
Oscar Smarty don't forget most of the audience of movies are teens. This is why Clash Of The Titans is the most reasonable #1 pick. Plus, many Christians still haven't seen it because of Easter and Good Friday.
1. Clash of Titans….. 34.2
2. Date Night………. 21.9
3. How to Train…….. 19.5
4. Why Did I Marry….. 15.7
5. Letters to God…… 10.2
6. The Last Song……. 8.2
7. Hot Tub Time…….. 4.6
8. Alice in Wonder….. 3.9
9. Bounty Hunter……. 3.0
10. Diary of a Wimp….. 2.4
11. Shutter Island….. 0.7
12. She's Outta Here… 0.6
Wow, Wow, Wow Dan Tralder! #5 for Letters To God?!?!? Don't think so. I don't think Letters To God will be a movie that appeals to many people.
point taken, of course. It's a big bet, I suppose, but it doesn't have to appeal to many people. It has to appeal to the right crowd, the Fireproof crowd, who are starved for attention.
Date Night has the potential to get the old folks out, in there 30's like me! Nothing new out, lots of ads, very short running time (88 minutes), tough guess, but I say $36M.
Props to "Vivendi Entertainment" for getting 897 theaters for "Letters to God. "Apparition" could not get anything close with "The Runaways".
The Runaways opened 3/19 at 244 theaters, dropped to 237 the next weekend. It's 3rd weekend it dropped to 84 screens, and now for week 4 it's up to 204. It's no longer playing near me, so these are not the same locations it was at when it opened. What a mess. Isn't the point of a wide release to capitalize on all your advertising by playing 'everywhere' at the same time?
The Letters to God people must think thery are on a mission from God. The print costs alone are around $3,000 each aren't they? That's $2.7 million. A gamble on making back your costs. Does anyone think print costs could be cheaper?
The reason why most people didn't like Clash (although I was disappointed, too, but still, it was fun) is because it had a less likable story than the original. The classic managed to entice people with its pure emotion and almost-corny antics, this new movie's only improvement was the action, which was a little fast in some scenes. Well, 3-D is definitely trash, so I guess I'll be trashing almost any 3-D movie not filmed in 3-D soon. 2-D still rocks everyone!
1.) Date Night – $34M, maybe higher, no way it will be under 30!
2.) Clash of The Titans – $27M
3.) HTTYD – $21M
I see Date night winning with about 35 million and clash earning about 30 mill. Not a weekend I'm too excited for, but next weekend with both Kick-Ass and Death at a funeral, I'm hoing with more than 50 million for the former and just about 30 mill for the latter.
The trailer for Death at a funeral looks promising; the trailer for The Back Up Plan looks horrific.
Like I said last week… DATE NIGHT is winning it all. Let's proceed, shall we?
1. DATE NIGHT – $45.6 million
2. CLASH OF THE TITANS – $24.3 million
3. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON – $21.8 million
4. WHY DID I GET MARRIED TOO? THIS IS SO LAME! – $14.2 million
5. THE LAST SONG – $9.8 million
I'm finally going back to the movies (decided to pass on Titans) this weekend for DATE NIGHT. Finally! And I expect it to be fairly packed. I've already given many of my reasons before in last Thursday's column, and they haven't really changed. To sum up…
1. Perfect for all couples on their date night. It's good for young couples. Old people love him (my parents – 50+ of age, adore him), so this would be their choice too. Kids love him. It's perfect.
2. All ages can go. Kids love Carell. You might think "But it's PG-13?". Yeah so? Since when do parents care or keep notice to that? I'm betting there are gonna be a bunch of horror stories come next weekend when parents complain how non-kid-friendly "Kick-Ass" is. "I thought it was a superhero movie!". I'm digressing a bit, but the rating will not stop Date Night from appealing to youngsters too.
3. Different races can see a Steve Carell movie, because his humor is widely appealing. The majority of awesome guys LOVE Steve Carell, and girls think he's adorably charming. He's a definite star.
4. That cast. Steve Carell is the MVP here, but as for the rest… It's universally appealing/eye-catching/likeable. Once the silliest of girls catch Leighton Meester or Mark Wahlberg in the commercials, they are NOT gonna mind going to this movie. Guys think Wahlberg is also hilarious thanks to his comedic skills. Guys also think Tina Fey is a cutie, while James Franco is also a crack up. Come on. Such a legit cast.
So it'll be getting A LOT of people. It's a calm weekend. Movies are the top choice.
Everyone have a really adventurous weekend!
^_^
Oh, and in my "1." point, "him" is referring to Mr. Steve Carell. I thought I put that, but now that I read it, I suppose I didn't.
Anyway, have a great weekend! :)
1. Date Night, $38.8 million. I hadn't thought about the Couples Retreat comparison until reading the above comments, but I feel like that could be on the ball. I'm going with a little higher of a PTA, because it's an action comedy and because Carell and Fey are bigger draws than Vince Vaughn (I think). $40 million seems too high to me; I think there may be some fallout simply because so many people went to the movies last weekend. But as with the last two weekends, I think there's a fairly wide possible range for the top film.
2. Clash of the Titans, $24.5 million. I'm dropping it 60% because word of mouth hasn't been great. I thought it was dumb, entertaining fun; don't really have anything more to say about it.
3. How to Train Your Dragon, $21.8 million. I'm giving it just a 25% drop after last weekend's 33% fall. Spectacular legs after a less-than-anticipated opening should allow it to get to $200 million domestically.
4. Why Did I Get Married, $11.7 million. Another 60% drop; Tyler Perry's films are always heavily frontloaded.
5. The Last Song, $6.4 million. And yet another 60% drop. Nicholas Sparks films (other than The Notebook) tend to be pretty frontloaded as well.
6. Alice in Wonderland, $5.7 million. I may end up a bit too high here, as people seem to have moved on from this one rather quickly after its spectacular three-week start. Should land around $330 million domestic when all is said and done.
7. Hot Tub Time Machine, $5.2 million. A couple weeks ago people were wondering if this could be this year's The Hangover. Comedies that make that kind of cash are extremely, extremely rare, like once every five years (There's Something About Mary, Wedding Crashers, The Hangover). I can't recall any other $200 million-plus adult comedies in that span.
8. Diary of a Wimpy Kid, $3.7 million. Nothing left to say.
9. The Bounty Hunter, $3.5 million. Date Night will kill what little this one has left.
10. Letters to God, $2.2 million. Sure, 2,500 PTA sounds about right.
No movie going for me this weekend. Apparition reneged on their promise of a wide release for The Runaways and I don't have access to the art houses where it's playing. I'd still like to catch Greenberg and The Ghost Writer as well, but those are beginning to lose theatres. It's all good though, next week is Kick-Ass!
Totally left the Too off of Why Did I Get Married Too. Also, I know the three films in my comedy list weren't five years apart from one to the next, but they average out to close to that (5.5 years over the 11 year span).
Second Weekend drops:
Message in a bottle -40%
A Walk to Remember -27.4%
The Notebook -23% to -47% July 4 fracs up the comparison
Nights in Rodanthe -45.1
Dear John -47.3
A walk to remember was the only movie geared to a younger audience. If The Last Song can match it's drop it will make $11.6 million this weekend. The push/pull will be frontloadedness verses tweens trickling in. I saw the movie again on thursday, and there were three tweens there with parents, the first I've seen. The movie holds up very well for repeat viewings. Bound to be a favorite on DVD.
Many people art thinking Dear John's pre-Valentines Day (the holiday) release helped it, but I'm also thinking they were lucky/clever to cast stars that look older for the older Nicholas Sparks fans, but have the story ostensibly be about younger college students for the younger audience.
Ooh, one more thing. I wanted to comment on LAREMY'S opening words:
"Date Night is an April release with a limited romantic comedy demographic."
Here's the thing: I think, when it comes to movies most certainly, people have gotten smarter when deciding what to see.
The recent romantic comedies that have come out (Bounty Hunter, She's Out of Your League, Leap Year, When in Rome) have a high-concept, but even the dorkiest girl who thinks they look "cute", still know that it's totally dumb. And I think the reason why the romantic-comedy hasn't been doing too well lately, is because all of them have a sense of "dumb" to them. To use an easy term, it's like cotton candy. It's bright and colorful, but it has a cheap taste, and everyone knows it. So they can easily be skipped on. But the ones that DO perform well, like say "Valentine's Day", do wealthy business because they at least TRY to be different, and look different, by either telling multiple stories, and also casting a WIDE range of likable actors that can appeal to a LOT of people. What matters most is how it's sold, and how it looks, and the talent involved. Who cares about Jennifer Aniston really? Meh. But Julia Roberts? Shirley McClaine? Jennifer Garner? Not alone, but altogether? It's all about the gravitas.
So it's not that people aren't really interested in romantic comedies and the audience is suddenly limited: it's just that, because of the recession and because of brain growth (haha), they choose to spend their well-earned money on the stuff that actually looks certifiably good. Something that gets more than a "that looks cute" out of them. People are looking for something MORE. "Bounty Hunter" prob got a few chuckles and a "how cute!". "Valentine's Day" got "Wow!"s all around, thanks to the rich cast and concept – even if you still thought it looked stupid.
"Date Night" has that same appealing spark. It has gravitas. Tina Fey is way more intelligent in her comedy than an Aniston or a Kristen Bell. That's respected by people. Boom!: Gravitas. Same with Carell and Wahlberg and Franco and the others. It's just LEGIT, to say least. And apparently, it's actually worth your time (unlike V-Day) which is why it should hold up well too.
As for being released in April… that doesn't mean anything anymore. Titans and last year's F&F got frickin' high opening numbers. If Iron Man 2 was released this weekend, do you think it would get less money than in May? Heck no. It doesn't matter what month it is anymore. The only difference is kids in school, but they'd make time for it in their free weekend. THE MOVIE JUST HAS TO LOOK GOOD, for once. That's all it is now. Date Night might as well be opening in the middle of June.
Where are you guys getting your definitive "word of mouth is not good" on Titans? Seriously? Look at the midweek: 6+, 5+, 4+. That's pretty damn solid historically. 3D made this a whipping boy, and sure, I get that. That was a total money move. BUt look at the international, people. It's all about the international. Clash is minting money outside the US. It's an easy 150+ US, 250+ international. And 400 is an epic win.
I see 30 / 30 for Date Night and Titans.
Date Night wont even make it to 20 mil for the weekend….MASTERS….TIGER WOODS!
Might cut off a mil or two on Sunday if Tiger is close, but that's it. Only diehards ever watch golf on Saturdays.
1. Date Night – $36.2 million
2. Clash of the Titans – $26.8 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon – $18.9 million
4. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too? – $12.7 million
5. The Last Song – $8.1 million
6. Hot Tub Time Machine – $5.1 million
7. Alice in Wonderland – $5.0 million
8. The Bounty Hunter – $4.0 million
9. Letters to God – $3.1 million
10. Diary of a Wimpy Kid – $2.7 million
Slightly off topic things that make you go "hmmm".
Though it's not the next movie she will be filming, Miley Cyrus will star in a remake of 'Girls Just Want To Have Fun'. That movie was directed by Chuck Russell. Chuck Russell hired Liam Hemsworth, Miley's boyfriend and perhaps fiancee, to star in Arabian Nights, a blockbuster type film. Who wants to bet that Chuck Russell will also direct the remake of Girls Just Want To Have Fun? See, Time magazine was right about Miley's pull in Hollywood!
Date Night at 2nd place with only 26m (way off).. I agree with some the first coupling of Tina & Steve is a bigger deal to many than given credit.. word around is this is a perfect pairing and people REALLY want to see the chemistry and even in the trailer which isn't A+ but they look natural together makes me want to see it also (where i normally wouldn't have a strong feeling for going).. here's my weekend top 5 estimates..
#1) DATE NIGHT 42.89 Million.. (would be very very surprized if it's below 40m)
2) Clash/Titans 26.5 Million.. (Will drop, people will download it now – word of mouth is only so so for audiences coming out of theatres)
3)Train/Dragon 24 Million (This has staying power & Everyone when i was there to see it was mostly Adult and loved the way the 3D looked)
4) Why/Married Too 14 Million (very front loaded and just not good – boring and it dragged my ass bitime)
5)Last Song 9 Million (damn… I wish this would do worse but let's face it Miley sells.)
Hopefully I'm close.
Date Night will win with a weekend just over $30M.
Clash will die. 60% drop for him.
HTTYD could finish the weekend with $20M or more.
Love the Rounders reference. Awesome movie.
Right now it looks like 13-4 in favor of Date Night. Given the wisdom of crowds, that does not bode well for my prediction.
'It's target audience loves it. Tweens are now starting to trickle in with their parents. At least the more persuasive ones. Ten stars.'
The target audience of Saw loves them films too but they're not exactly great films are they?
I think it's a great movie but I admit I could be letting my bias show. That's why I wanted Brad to review it, but he won't.
Here's a link to a good review.
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/32838/
What I was trying to say about the target audience is that there are still alot of them who haven't seen The Last Song, because when they say rated PG, they mean it. But word of mouth has been excellent, so it's a matter of who they spread the word to, and will enough tweens see it to provide peer pressure to those who haven't. The book is still wide open on this films final gross, IMO.
At 5pm today, LETTERS TO GOD was ranked 7th on Yahoo Trends and 17th on Google Trends. No other movie was in the top 20. You may be missing a larger interest in the film, and therefore box office, than you guess at here. And prints aren't 3,000 anymore. I'm guessing LTG will finish at very best 5th, and at worst 7th, maybe 8th.
Aren't $3,000 anymore because the price has come down, or aren't $3,000 anymore because the price has gone up? It's hard to tell price direction anymore, these days.
The Last Song is now certain to become Nicholas Sparks biggest worldwide earner, due to it's star.
Prints can be pulled for about $1,200 – $2,000 each in bulk these days — and remember, some screenings can be digital.
Thanks, As I understand it, theaters get their digital content delivered on a secure hard drive.