1. Obsessed- $14.6 million
I have seen many posters and such for Obsessed- yet I still don't know what its about. I think that a toll on its gross, but teenagers haven't had an action film (besides the R-rated Crank High Voltage) since Fast & Furious. This will definitely push its gross past the $10 million point, and with the help of Beyonce and the largest theater count of the weekend, will push it to #1.

2. Fighting- $12.2 million
I can see this opening anywhere from $7- $15 million. We haven't had an action/drama in a long time, so it will be interesting to see how America responds to that. It has been given a reasonably strong marketing blitz, and I've seen posters for this one anywhere. This is the weekend's underdog; I think it'll take everyone by surprise.

3. 17 Again- $10.8 million
I'm putting 17 Again for a drop of around 55%, which feels very generous, given the fact that only around 2 out of 5 of Zac Efron fans who caught it in its opening weekend are going to go see it again, and it doesn't really seem like a film with much holding power. Plus, teenagers have a large selection to choose from this weekend, and groups who are going to go see a movie will probably choose Obsessed or Fighting over a Zac Efron movie. Still, it's really the only comedy out there, and that ought to help it not fall over 60%.

4. Earth- $9.7 million
This is the only family film to come out since Hannah Montana, and positive word of mouth will help it stay around. But it hasn't been given a strong advertising campaign, and the only reason it grossed $4 million on Wednesday is because it was Earth day, and it probably brought in lots of field trips. But if this one grosses over $2.5 million today, I'm ready to eat my words.

5. The Soloist- $8.9 million
This has been the most hyped film of the weekend, but something about the theme doesn't spell out blockbuster to me. We're in a recession, and people want to go see light comedies and action-packed thrillers and sequels, instead of heavy dramas. How far can Robert Downey Jr.'s star power push a film?

6. State of Play- $8.7 million
Although the release of The Soloist might steal the adults looking for a smart movie, State of Play seems like it could have some serious holding power. Positive word of mouth should help it, and it is play at 800 more theaters then The Soloist. It should make anywhere from $8-9 million.

7. Monsters Vs. Aliens- $7.9 million
Families who want a lighter subject than Earth for their young kids should continue to flock to this one, and it has the second highest theater count of the weekend. Yes, things are looking good for Monsters Vs. Aliens. Yes indeed…

8. Fast & Furious- $5.8 million
We go into a recession, and Hollywood gives us a movie about cars that we know we could never afford… and that movie opens up to over $70 million. I don't get America at all.

9. Hannah Montana: The Movie- $5.6 million
I went to go see State of Play, and my movie got out right when Hannah Montana's did. I saw at least three people groaning and covering their ears as they left the theater, the closing song playing in the background. Irrelevant story of the day.

10. Crank 2- $2.6 million
I went to go see State of Play, and when my movie got out, I guy came out of Crank 2 to go to the bathroom. Irrelevant story of the century.

I saw "Obsessed" ads quite a few times–but only on really trashy reality TV shows. Expect the trash crowd to show up. But not in large numbers. Your estimate of $12 million seems about right, though.

"The Soloist" I think is the real contender against "Earth"–people seem interested in it, but the bad reviews may have slaked that thirst enough so that it may end up on the bad side of $10 million. But I'm going with $10.5 million.

"Fighting" will make $8.4 million. I matched up the user polls on BOM with that movie and "Never Back Down," then factored in the theater amount, with a special little equation to account for the fact that fewer theaters means a higher PTA, but not in a linear sense. Or whatever. I'm great at math, bad at explaining it.

I think the drops for the other movies will be modest. "Hannah Montana" may even make over half of last weekend's gross, especially if it plays out like High School Musical 3. I think your "17 Again" prediction is too low; it'll hold about half its business. And "State of Play" will drop around 45%, I think.