Box-Office Oracle: Apr. 16 – Apr. 18, 2010
An Ass-Kicking Film Will Take the Top Spot...
First off, I get to restore my streak from last weekend as Clash of the Titans did pull off the upset on Sunday to pass Date Night at the wire. Boom! I'll take any victory I can get. This weekend promises to be quite interesting too, so let's get right into it.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 6 Weeks In A Row
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| Most of the early calls had this one in the $30m range, but the history doesn't suggest that. The third weekend of April is generally weak, so Kick-Ass will need to start a new trend to even finish this high. But I think the buzz is there, and this time it's based on a solid product. This is a crowd-pleaser, so long as the crowd is into Kill Bill and absolute mayhem. Oddly enough, this won't win the per theater average this weekend. Which makes you wonder what might have been had Death at a Funeral been rolled out a little wider. But we'll get to that in a moment. The one cause for concern? That R-rating isn't doing the film any favors, especially in the way they used it. The film is 75 percent tame, 20 percent violent, and five percent over the line. I think a PG-13 was within reach, but they stuck to their guns. Will it hurt them this weekend? Prediction: $26.67 million |
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$9500 per theater, and the per theater average crown for Death at a Funeral. No small feat. It's a fun little film, though I never saw the original, so it's hard to say how this nearly shot-for-shot remake holds up.
Prediction: $23.36 million
Everything since the opening has gone beautifully for How to Train Your Dragon. No competition again this weekend so a 20 percent dip is probable.
Prediction: $18.86 million
It will beat Clash of the Titans this weekend. But what was up with Fox's Sunday projection on this title? Sheesh, it was almost like they were calling for the win based on hope alone.
Prediction: $14.65 million
True, Clash was losing going into Sunday. But which film was going to hold up better? The Date Night effort on a non-Date Night? Or the known action quantity? I should have called foul on Sunday morning but I didn't want to go all sore loser on you. I'm trying out sore winner instead.
Prediction: $13.14 million
I'm dipping it 40 percent this weekend. Call it instinct.
Prediction: $6.1 million
So far it has mirrored Meet the Browns. It will continue to do so.
Prediction: $4.14 million
Have you heard the economy is back? Good news, right? Still… too late to help Hot Tub Time Machine.
Prediction: $3.48 million
I hope to meet Tim Burton when Brad and I head over to Cannes. However, back in real life, I'll be lucky to even get into the screenings.
Prediction: $3.08 million
I have this beating Bounty Hunter because I'm not into masochism.
Prediction: $2.79 million
How say you? Sticking with bold calls on Kick-Ass? Any chance Death at a Funeral beats the more hyped product? Think my weekend is too high or low? Here's your chance — comments away!
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I think $30 million for Kick-Ass is possible but I thought the same thing about Date Night and look how that turned out. So with a grain of salt here are my guesses.
1. Kick-Ass $31.1 million
2. Death At a Funeral $21.3 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon $19.6 million
4. Date Night: $15.6 million
5. Clash of the Titans: $12.2 million
Im gonna give kick ass a bit more leeway with $28.2 million just because of the buzz. But I too do feel 30 is a bit of a reach.
Death at a funeral has mixed reviews and an R rating. But I have a feeling its cast will make some parents neglect the R and bring some family to it. $26.1 million.
As for the rest, no comment.
Nothing going on this weekend, I think Kick Ass will top at $35M and Death close at $30. Both have not skimped on the ads, Kick-Ass has gotten good reviews (guessing it will be like Dragons an hold well for a couple of weeks).
This weekend:
1.Kick-Ass-$35.6 (N/A)-it has received impressive reviews.
2.Date Night-$18.4 (-32%)-could this pull a 'The Blind Side'?
3.Death at a Funeral-$17.2 (N/A)-not REALLY a threat.
4.How to Train Your Dragon-$10.8 (-57%)-I know, I know, but it has to drop eventually!
5.Clash of the Titans-$9.2 (-66%)-loss of interest.
6.Why Did I Get Married Too?-$8.7 (-21%)-it will have 2 more weeks of staying power.
7.The Last Song-$8.2 (-18%)-when a Sparks movie receives positive reviews, call me.
8.Alice in Wonderland-$4.2 (-25%)-there is still some word going around.
9.Hot Tub Time Machine-$4 (-26%)-I guess MGM will have to settle down.
10.The Bounty Hunter-$3.6 (-16%)-Avatar could sneak here in a mega-surprise.
You'll be waiting a long time for a good Sparks review because it's almost all guys doing the reviewing. One reviewer even said he didn't like the slower pacing. Hello! There's not going to be any car chases, people running from explosions, or robot battles. Hasn't anyone noticed that soap operas are slow paced? Didn't anyone see any of the Twilight movies? Most girls like these films.
"Avatar could sneak here in a mega-surprise"
While I doubt it will come back to the top ten, it is 'expanding' by 46 screens this week. However, it near me, it's taking over the IMAX 3D late show (11pm or midnight) that Alice occupied since Dragons opened. Those one-a-day showings aren't going to make big impact on the bottom line.
1. Death at a Funeral $26.5 I bet the trailer for this film played at Tyler Perry's movie. Somewhat broad appeal.
2. Kick Ass $25.5 Like Clash of the Titans, the exitement for this movie seems to have peaked a little early.
3. How To Train Your Dragon $17.4 Has won the battle of the 3D theaters and $3 million from IMAX
4. Clash of the Titans $13.2
5. Date Night $12.3 Bounty Hunter type drop but with more competiton
6. The Last Song $6.43 a minus 34.6% drop :)
7. Tyler Perry $5.6 I'm dropping this 10% extra because of Death at a Funeral
8. HTTM $3.5
9. Alice $3.1
10. The Bounty Hunter $2.7
My only comment about the jam band movie Phish 3D, coming out April 30th is, how do they expect to make any money on this film as Phish fans are not usually allowed indoors? Maybe I should go just to see the effects of hallucinogens on an audience watching a 3D film.
Call me crazy, but I think the numbers are there for this:
1. Death at a Funeral, $28.2 million. I have no streak to protect after missing last week, otherwise I'd probably never take this risk. And if there was ever a weekend to take a risk on, this is it. This is an $11,500 PTA, and Tyler Perry just hit $13,600 two weeks ago. This has an R rating, but I think that can be somewhat overcome by the fact that it looks genuinely funny and has basically a who's who of black actors. I hope I'm wrong and Kick-Ass wins it, but like I said, this is the perfect weekend to take a risk.
2. Kick-Ass, $27.7 million. I'm predicting low and hoping it goes higher, but honestly, at $9,000 PTA, I feel like this might be a stretch. It looks absolutely awesome and hopefully good word of mouth will give it good holds and maybe allow it to get to $100 million, but the bottom line is this just looks too extreme for mainstream American audiences. The fanboy buzz and good reviews will help carry it, otherwise I could even foresee a Grindhouse-style bomb with this one. Of course without the comic book, and hence the fanboys, it would never have been made, so that's essentially a mute point.
3. How to Train Your Dragon, $19.3 million. Another preposterously good hold for this film. It'll be number two for the year behind Alice (if it isn't there already), until it gets obliterated by Iron Man, probably before Iron Man's second weekend.
4. Date Night, $15.1 million. I'm only giving this a 40% fall. Honestly I think Fox intentionally overestimated it last week so it would take the Sunday crown, knowing more people pay attention to that than the Monday actuals. Fortunately most articles reported the estimates as too-close-to-call at the top, so maybe their plan went awry. Because a $2 million overestimate is pretty high (that rhymes…point for me!).
5. Clash of the Titans, $13.3 million. I'm giving this a 50% fall from last weekend after its 55% second weekend drop. This is gonna fade rather fast and end up short of $200 million domestically.
6. The Last Song, $5.6 million. About the same as last week's drop.
7. Why Did I Get Married Too, $4.4 million. Another 60% fall; Death at a Funeral will kill this one.
8. Hot Tub Time Machine, $3.8 million.
9. Alice in Wonderland, $3.7 million.
10. The Bounty Hunter, $2.9 million.
I took a pass on the last three because I'm hungry and need some dinner. I'm seeing Kick-Ass tomorrow night and greatly looking forward to it. I'll also have a chance to see The Runaways and/or Greenberg on Saturday.
Forget it all, Kick ass will take $40 mil and will go on for a Hangover run. If I'm wrong, well, at least I'll still have a 14 Week streak.
Call me crazy, but I'm going to go with DAAF for the win this weekend. I'm just not feeling the buzz for KA from the general masses. I mean sure the online marketing campaign is great, but does anyone really know anybody outside the interenet fanbase that really want to see it because I don't. I hope it proves me wrong, but I'm just not getting into the big online HYPE.
: Final Predictons:
1. Death at a Funeral (2010) – $26.4
2. Kick-Ass – $23.6
3. How to Train Your Dragon – $18.7
4. Date Night – 14.1
5. Clash of the Titans (2010) – 13.2
6. The Last Song – $6.0
7. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too? – $4.5
8. Hot Tub Time Machine – $3.4
9. Alice in Wonderland (2010) – $3.0
10. The Bounty Hunter – $2.7
I hate doing this, but I'm going to go with DAAF for the win this weekend. I'm just not feeling the buzz for KA from the general masses. I mean sure the online marketing campaign is great, but does anyone really know anybody outside the interenet fanbase that really want to see it because I don't. I hope it proves me wrong, but I'm just not getting into the big online HYPE.
: Final Predictons:
1. Death at a Funeral (2010) – $25.4
2. Kick-Ass – $23.6
3. How to Train Your Dragon – $18.7
4. Date Night – 14.1
5. Clash of the Titans (2010) – 13.2
6. The Last Song – $6.0
7. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too? – $4.5
8. Hot Tub Time Machine – $3.4
9. Alice in Wonderland (2010) – $3.0
10. The Bounty Hunter – $2.7
I'm goin ballsy on this one and giving kick-ass 50 million plus this weekend. I'll eat my hat if I'm wrong, which I likley will be.
IDK, Kick-Ass could end up third for me. I'm liking Death and a Funeral's odds and Date Night could hold 2nd.
My predictions
1. Death and a Funeral – $23.4
2. Date Night – $18.8
3. Kick-Ass – $17.6
4. How to Train Your Dragon – $10.7
5. Clash of the Titans – $9.6
6. Tyler Perry's Why Did I get Married too? – $5.6
7. Hot Tub Time Machine – $4.1
8. The Last Song – $3.0
9. Alice in Wonderland – $2.8
10. Diary of a Wimpy Kid – $2.2
Call me crazy, but on instinct alone I'm looking for Death At A Funeral to win the weekend. I know that I will probably be wrong for a lot of reasons, such as:
a) Kick-Ass is the more-buzzed about movie by a significant amount
b) It will face competition with Tyler Perry's film
c) Based on quality, Kick-Ass has got to be significantly better
d) It's rated R when the demographics who seem to be showing the most interest are teenagers.
I fully anticipate (and hope) that I will be eating my words. But based on the fact that movies I want to do well are always quite middling at the box-office, unfortunately I'm calling Kick-Ass to take a close second.
1. Death At A Funeral- $27.5 million
2. Kick-Ass- $25.8 million
3. How To Train Your Dragon- $16.8 million
4. Clash Of The Titans- $15.2 million
5. Date Night- $13.2 million
My logic in predicting Kick-Ass is a bit like in predicting Avatar, it started out for a VERY long time as a fanboy/internet buzz movie so I think that demographic is locked in. From there they've done pretty extensive advertising and received largely positive reviews, plus that whole Hit-Girl controversy could actually help them. I can't see it doing anywhere under 10K per theater.
As far as Death at a Funeral goes I think it has more crossover appeal than other primarily black comedies and could fare pretty well.
1) Kick-Ass – $32.3 million
2) Death at a Funeral – $26.5 million
3) How to Train Your Dragon – $17.2 million
4) Date Night – $16.1 million [both HtTYD and Date Night have NO demographic challenge.]
5) Clash of the Titans – $12.6 million [it's a simple case of everyone who wants to see it has.]
6) The Last Song – $5.5 million
7) Why Did I Get Married Too? – $3.9 million
8) Hot Tub Time Machine – $3.6 million
9) Alice in Wonderland – $2.8 million
10) Diary of a Wimpy Kid – $2.0 million
Been a long time. Missed you guys.
So, here's my thinking.
1. Kick Ass – $31 million – Mainly due to where its early ticket sales are at. They tend to reach about $30 million based on what early tix have shown. Also, word of mouth could bump it up to $35 million possibly $40 million, but for now, I feel comfy with the 31.
2. Death at a Funeral – $24.6 million – Trailer actually got me interested, plus all the folks in the cast. Will get that Tyler Perry crowd, though the Tyler Perry crowd probably never would've saw the original.
3. How To Train Your Dragon – $20.2 million – No competition, plus added 3-D screens again will equal another small drop. This thing's got legs.
4. Date Night – $13.8 million – May not drop too much but I think the WOM just isn't there.
5. Clash of the Titans – $13.2 million – Gonna be close to Date Night again.
6. The Last Song – $6.2 million
7. Why Did I Get Married Too – $6 million
8. Hot Tub Time Machine – $4 million
9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid – $3.4 million
10. Alice in Wonderland – $3.2 million
Welcome back Check Spot!
"Diary of a Wimpy Kid" just got canceled in my city. It might not make it to the top ten.
That depends. What city are you talking about?
Stalker Alert! Just kidding. In my city, the local theater put "Kick A" on the marquee instead of "Kick Ass". I suppose I've become inured to bad language because this surprised me.
1. Kick Ass 32 mill
I'm an eternal optimist. It's an untapped market. The fan-boys are getting restless. Controversy is godd advertising. There is hype. Maybe it's the opening act before Iron Man 2.
2. Death at a Funeral: 27.5 million
Tyler Perry-esque numbers. Comedy is a loaded scene and this has mized reviews and an R rating.
3. Clash of the Titans 14 million
It's drop should slow. Hopefully.
4. Date Night 12 million
DaF should steal a lot of money, and hopefully people will think Clash is better. And Clash did win last week, so I'll continue my optimism.
5. How to Train Your Dragon: 10 million
'That R-rating isn't doing the film any favors, especially in the way they used it'
I'm sorry but it's a violent film. Would you like to live in a world where everything is PG-13, even films like Kill Bill?. The film NEEDED to be R to get the point across and the source material is equally as bloody. Fair play to Matthew Vaughn for not giving in to studios and kiddy-fying this amazing film just like they did with Mcg on Terminator Salvation.
Anyway, my call would be $38m. It's the only one of its kind around, great reviews and it has McLovin in it too!
Wanted made around $50m so it's not impossible for Kick Ass to act accordingly :)
That's not the point of his comment. His point is R-rated films like this just don't make as much money at the box-office. He's also saying the film could have been more violent with that R-rating. Basically he's on your side and you just didn't know it.
Brad's got what I was getting at correct. Either make it super violent and own the R rating or cut the five minutes.
Sorry for the late post, I've been sick, etc, etc, and my dog ate my box office predictions. But really, though, I've been quite sick. Please accept my late homework:
1. Kick-Ass………………..24.5
2. Death at a Funeral…..20.4
3. How to Train Dragons…19.9
4. Clash of the Titans….13.5
5. Date Night……………13.1
6. The Last Song………….6.7
7. Why'd I Get Married?…4.8
8. Alice in Wonderland….3.1
9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid…2.8
10. Hot Tub Time Machine…2.7
11. Bounty Hunter……….2.2
12. So far down it doesn't matter
Feel good about the Kick-Ass, but I'm super-insecure about DAAF, I feel like it could be a long way in either direction. I'll still happily take credit, though, if I'm right. Also, I'm looking towards a 48% drop for Date Night, and a 49.5% drop for Clash to put Clash over the top in that scuffle
It's a strange weekend given both new releases are rated R.
My guess.
1. Kick-Ass – $36.3 million
2. Death at a Funeral – $27. 4 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon – 17.2 million
4. Clash of the Titans – 16.6 million
5. Date Night – 14.7 million
6. Tyler Perry – $7.5 million
7. The Last Song – $6.2 million
8. Hot Tub Time Machine – $3.6 million
9. Alice in Wonderland – $3.3 million
10. Diary of a Wimpy Kid – $2.9 million
This should be an interesting weekend.
1) DEATH AT A FUNERAL 30.4
-I think that with the good reviews and a funny trailer. People will check this one out. I think this has better appeal to the audiences and with a great cast I don't think 30 mil is out of reach. But the R Rating could pull against it.
2) KICK-ASS- 24.5 mil
-I wouldn't be suprised if this took 1st spot due to fanboys and good reviews. But i just don't think this is appealing to many audiences. It is either people want to see it or they don't. We shall see on Sunday.
3) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON- 17.5 mil
-I am very happy that this movie is doing so very well. It opened soft but is holding legs. Should end it's cume around 190 mil. Very good for a film that opened in it's forties. But as I said last week. It is kinda playing out like the first ALVIN. 200 mil cume is not out of reach.
4) DATE NIGHT- 15.3 mil
- I think and HOPE that this holds well. I think it will due to good WOM and mostly positive reviews. But, DAAF will definetly hurt it.
5) CLASH OF THE TITANS -13.6 mil
- No suprise for this film. As I said earlier I enjoyed this stupid little action flick. I was kinda suprised at its drop of 55% last week. That isn't good but not as bad as other films like WATCHMEN, FAST AND FURIOUS, and others. I expect its final cume to end at 150 mil. Not good but not bad.
Currently the voting stands at 11-7 for Kick-Ass winning the weekend. I'm happy to have the board in my favor this weekend… :)
Wishing you a 7 week streak Laremy, that's my fave number.
Wow, this is depressing. The box office may be under $100 million for the next three weeks :(
Oh man, I did not expect that. Kick-Ass opened at 7.5 M friday, according to Nikki Finke, guess I agree with you, mfan
Sorry for my misinterpretation of your comment Laremy, you're absolutely right. I didn't read it thouroghly enough!