'Avatar' Tops Friday Estimates and Takes Aim at Worldwide #1
When you're talking billions of dollars, that's a lot
It's no surprise Avatar will win its sixth weekend in a row becoming the first film to manage that feat since James Cameron's last film, Titanic, did it in the 1997-98 frame. It will overtake The Dark Knight as the #2 domestic release of all-time this weekend as well as eclipse Titanic as the foreign box-office king of the world.
Avatar pulled in another $9.1 million on Friday and will likely hit $34 million for the weekend bringing its total near $550 million domestically. The film's worldwide earnings were $1.173 billion as of Thursday and Fox International's senior vp of sales and strategic planning, Craig Dehmel, told The Hollywood Reporter, "We expect Avatar to pass 'Titanic' at the international box office (on Saturday)." Titanic's international number is $1.242 billion.
As for the weekend newcomers, Legion takes the crown as winner with a $6.7 million Friday and an anticipated $18 million weekend while The Tooth Fairy, the for-kids feature starring The Rock landed like one with an estimated $5.3 million and what will likely be a $16 million weekend. While Legion will come close to RopeofSilicon Box-Office Oracle Laremy Legel's prediction of $19 million it appears Tooth Fairy will fall about $5 million short of the $21 million Laremy presumed.
The weekend's other new film, Extraordinary Measures, did even worse with an estimated $2 million on Friday and what is likely to be a $7-8 million weekend. Personally the film looked like a made-for-TV feature with bigger stars, which is hardly appealing.
After $32 million last week, it looks like The Book of Eli will enjoy a 50% slice as it earned $4.9 million on Friday and what is likely to be a $15 million weekend.
The complete list of Friday estimates, courtesy of Variety can be found directly below and Laremy will be here Sunday with a complete wrap-up.
- Avatar – $9.1 million
- Legion – $6.7 million
- The Book of Eli – $4.9 million
- The Tooth Fairy – $5.3 million
- The Lovely Bones – $2.6 million
- Extraordinary Measures – $2 million
- Sherlock Holmes – $1.97 million
- It's Complicated – $1.76 million
- Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel – $1.4 million
- The Blind Side – $1.2 million
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James Cameron could make a movie about the game JENGA and it would top the box office.
I mean WOW! seriously who would have thought that Avatar would totally demolish titanic's record! 2 billion worldwide is not that far away
avatar will pass titanic internationally and nationally. i knew it would.
Looks like Up in the Air will miss out. Or could it take the #10 spot like I predicted?
You might want to change the last sentence of paragraph two: Titanic's number is $1.842 billion.
Since you were talking international b.o. numbers, not combined worldwide, Titanic's number is $1.242b, meaning Avatar needs about $70 million to overtake it.
I was kind of surprised the international record will fall before the domestic, but have you read about Chinese exhibitors raising Avatar tickets to about $45, plus online scalpers getting double that amount?
@Matt B.: Ahhhh, good catch. Thanks.
I think Avatar will fall 50-60 percent within the next few weeks. What do you guys think?
I'm TERRIBLE at predicting the biggest dropper each weekend.
@Matt B.: After today, Avatar will only play in Chinese IMAX theaters by government fiat. It's run at the IMAX theaters is limited to sometime in February (23rd?, I can't remember). That's why tickets are so high. It's the reverse of the movie studio limited engagement scenario. Instead of assuming the studio will extend the engagement, the chinese govt. is actually more apt to end ithe movie's run early.
Kash, Fox must have predicted it. Stories written all year about the cost, and the heavy advertising. Let's give them props. Heck, I would not be surprised over the next year or two, during slow movie months when nothing new is booked in 3D or IMAX, they release it again on those screens.
The films that can take the #10 spot are:
Up in the Air (can a screenplay Globe help?)
The Blind Side (SB's win can strengthen its chances of staying another week)
The Spy Next Door (EWWWWWWWW!)
Leap Year (further proof the ROMCOM genre is dead, it will suffer the biggest blow of all the films dropping out this weekend)
Daybreakers (if it gets an increase)
Here are a couple of theories and factors that pile in:
The PG-13 theory: teens will come, no matter HOW adult it seems.
The Horror Film theory: films of this genre will ALWAYS drop the most in its 2nd weekend.
The Awards Show theory: films that win awards = increase in following weekend.
The R theory: films w/this rating are below the amount considering the people who sneak in (this was probably the case w/Jennifer's Body).
The Comedy theory: funny film = strong holds.
The 50-60% theory: the films dropping this much in their 2nd weekend will hold better in their 3rd.
16.5mil Sat estimate for Avatar. What a beast. 3D and inflation be damned. Fanboy fervor alone is not enough to carry this movie to such ridiculous heights.