What Will be Summer 2008's Big Box-Office Winner?
A couple of guesses at the top five...
So what's that leave us? By my estimation we have four real contenders: Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Narnia and the dark horse Hancock. If I was to wager a guess, I would say it's gonna look like this:
Trying to pick a fifth film is a bit tough, but if I had to I would say rounding out the top five would be The Dark Knight.
However, seeing how I am not the RopeofSilicon Box-Office Oracle I decided to turn to our resident "expert" Laremy Legel and get his opinion. Here's what he had to say:
The truth is I've been terrible at Oraclin' lately; but in my defense it's been a real pig grading contest. Films like 88 Minutes, Street Kings, and Drillbit Taylor have made me very bitter and sapped all my accuracy. However, I just need to look at May and I get happy again. But therein lies the problem for my May contenders… the month is PACKED!
Which is why I can't take a May movie to triumph. Let's start at the bottom though…
#5 Batman Begins opened at around $50m against Mr. and Mrs. Smith back in 2005. The competition this time? Mamma Mia! and Space Chimps. No, I don't think they're too worried over at Warner Bros. That, plus the extremely effective viral marketing and Ledger buzz will launch The Dark Knight to a $65m opening weekend. From there it should hit $260m domestically; up 20% from the '05 version. That will be enough to finish 5th because the May movies are going to clobber each other. Which leads me to…
#4 Sex and the City. Brad didn't mention it, and he has his reasons. It's rated R. It won't get the theater counts. These are both valid points and I'm not feeling great about this prediction. However, this is legitimate counterprogramming and it comes at the tail end of May when the sailing is smooth and easy. You could make a case that it's only competition comes three weeks later in the form of Get Smart. No, girl dollars are not as sought after as the gents but in a summer loaded with action sequels and superheroes the one true blue date movie will thrive to the tune of $280m.
#3 In third place I've got Iron Man. Am I worried that Indy Jones will hurt it? Yes. They should have moved Jones to June. However, the one HUGE thing Iron Man has going for it is the fact that no one has seen a real movie in five months. I kid you not; it has been a long national nightmare. People are going to be swinging from the rafters to see this one. I see a very nice $315m domestic future.
#2 Our silver medalist this summer is Indiana Jones and the Longest Title Ever. Unlike Iron Man which has industry buzz (those of us who went to the CON) Indiana Jones has old man buzz. And guess who buys the tickets for the family? Yep, old fellas. Wait, check that, the mom's take the kids to a ton of movies too (Hi Horton Hears a Who) – what I mean to say here is that this is the one that everyone over the age of 40 is aware of and won't miss. There, fixed, my rep stays intact. I think $350m is a safe bet here… but it would have done even better if they'd bumped it a few weekends.
#1 My winner? Hancock. It's perfectly placed in July. Yes, The Dark Knight will hurt it but it's far more family friendly at this point. I compare this to Men in Black back in 1997 which easily cleared $300m (when adjusted for inflation). Hellboy II, while boasting an extremely vocal fangroup isn't a nationally important movie. Hancock comes out over the 4th of July weekend and will have a solid month of strong box office. I think it will finish around $375m when the dust clears.
Okay, okay, I admit Brad is probably right and Narnia might foil everything. But something about Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull the very next weekend scares me. I can't shake it.
Regardless, talking about this stuff is still way better than the couple dozen films I've had to endure the past four months. Let the games begin!
Put your anticipation aside and look at it closely. What do you think will take home the top spot at the Summer 2008 box-office?
* The record was beaten the following weekend by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (4,362).
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