Filed under: Friday Estimates

'Watchmen' Box-Office Tumbles 71% While 'Witch Mountain' Scares Up $6.5 Million

All while 'Taken' and 'Paul Blart' continue to add to their totals

I can't imagine anyone that covers movies on a regular basis not taking an interest in this weekend's box-office numbers as there was an obvious interest in finding out how well Watchmen scored with audiences that saw it last weekend and throughout the week. Unfortunately for Warner Bros. it appears word-of-mouth wasn't too good as Watchmen scored an estimated mere $5.2 million on Friday and Steve Mason of Big Hollywood now predicts it will only manage $15.75 million for the weekend, marking a 71% drop from last week's $55.2 million domestic opening.

Things look a little better for the Dwayne Johnson family actioner Race To Witch Mountain which will likely mark Johnson's fifth all time best opener with an estimated $6.5 million opening on its way to an projected $22.7 million weekend. It will be interesting to see if Witch Mountain has the legs Johnson's last Disney feature, The Game Plan (also with director Andy Fickman), which went on to make over $90 million at the domestic box-office after a similar $22.9 million opening.

Rogue Pictures' torture-porn entry, The Last House on the Left, mustered an estimated $5.3 million on Friday and is expected to battle it out with Watchmen for the second spot with Mason currently projecting it to come up just a bit short with a projected $14 million for the weekend. The film performed more or less as expected.

I would say the continuing big box-office story of the year remains Fox's PG-13-rated revenge feature Taken, which is currently this year's second highest grossing film carrying $120+ million into the weekend. Mason projects it will add another $6.1 million to its total this weekend putting it only $8 million behind 2009's top earner to this point, Paul Blart: Mall Cop, which also remains in the top ten and is expected to earn approximately $2.5 million this weekend upping its total to $137 million.

Taken is a film Fox did very little to market and I have even heard they thought about sending it direct-to-DVD. However, it has now been revealed screenwriter Mark Kamen is already writing a sequel. Hooray for the little guy eh?

Below are the early Friday estimates courtesy of Big Hollywood, Laremy will be here Sunday with a complete weekend recap.

  1. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $6.5 million
  2. The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.3 million
  3. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $5.2 million
  4. Taken (Fox) – $1.9 million
  5. Tyler Perry's Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $1.45 million
  6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.35 million
  7. Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $750,000
  8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $700,000
  9. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $650,000
  10. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $600,000

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Post #1
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Ey Brad,

You got a typo there. Taken is PG-13.

Brad to Dan: Thanks, I am actually still a little surprised they got away with that.

- Sound Designer Dan
( March 14th, 2009 | 12:39 am )
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Post #2
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Man, I wasn't sure about Watchmen finding a wide audience but I never thought it would be doing as poorly as it is. I personally enjoyed it and think it's as good a Watchmen adaptation as we'll ever see (barring the Director's cut) and it's unfortunate to see it falling off this way.

- Trevor
( March 14th, 2009 | 12:48 am )
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Post #3
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That watchmen figure sounds about right, You can almost count on anything that is worth while being overlooked by 80 percent of the population. That goes for anything that isn't as lucky to gain trend points. Watchmen is going to make its money on dvd if it doesn't make it in theatres. People would rather see things the dumb down their already idiotic brains. Im happy to see that Dwayne Johnson is keeping his career alive with disney and little by little furthering his acting game. However last house on the left is the same old boring cliche horror. Im surprised meet the spartans and the sex in the city movie aren't still on rotation.

- The Strongest There Is
( March 14th, 2009 | 12:59 am )
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Post #4
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This post seems premature. While Watchmen may indeed take a tumble this week, to post an article reporting it based on such early estimates is misguided at best and naive at worst.

Brad to Mikey: This happens every week and is how the industry works. These numbers are always extremely accurate and are based on studio reports. Please don't jump to conclusions and resort to name-calling based on silly and misguided accusations… Hope to see you here on Sunday.

- Mikey
( March 14th, 2009 | 1:54 am )
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Post #5
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I'll save my "Watchmen" talk for Laremy's Wrap-Up on Sun. But…Yeah, "Taken" is awesome, good job! Wasn't "Slumdog" supposed to be a straight to video movie as well?

Thats good news for cheaper, "niche" films then. You'd think that they'd bring that "Donnie Darko" spin-off/follow-up to theaters as well. Or at least that Jessica Biel Stripper movie, whatever the hell it's called.

Brad to Vince: The deal with Slumdog was that it ended up at Warner Bros. after Warner Independent folded, which was also at the same time New Line and Picturehouse closed up shop. This meant WB had a TON of movies on their plate and didn't necessarily have the time and staff to market them properly. While Slumdog was getting good festival buzz there was no indication it was going to do what it ended up doing so they sold it off to Fox Searchlight. I believe if they had held on to it they were planning on releasing it around Feb/Mar 2009, but I may be mistaken on that front.

- Vince
( March 14th, 2009 | 2:59 am )
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Post #6
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Ey Brad,

It's funny that you say, "Thanks, I am actually still a little surprised they got away with that," because the U.S. version is supposed to be the watered down version of the original.

- Sound Designer Dan
( March 14th, 2009 | 3:28 am )
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Post #7
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@Sound Designer Dan: Yeah, and the "Extended Harder Cut" is already available on DVD in the UK. It's one of those few times I am interested in seeing the difference between the two versions.

- Brad Brevet (Post Author)
( March 14th, 2009 | 3:45 am )
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Post #8
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TAKEN WAS AWFUL I DON'T SEE HOW IT IS GETTING SO MUCH HYPE!

- Aflred
( March 14th, 2009 | 6:07 am )
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Post #9
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I was also surprised to know that "Taken" was a PG-13 movie. When I watched it here in Brazil (it was released in 2008, November I guess), I thought the level of violence was kinda high – and that's one of the reasons I liked it so much. It was great, silly fun à la Charles Bronson's "Death Wish".

- Adriano
( March 14th, 2009 | 6:30 am )
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Post #10
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It's not even that Watchmen is a bad movie. It's not…it's brilliant. Is it perfect? No, but it's faithful to the source material in a way that was unheard of until now. The real problem is that people don't want to sit through anything that's actually going to cause them to think! "The Last House on the Left" and "Race to Witch Mountain" are movies that allow people to sit down in the theater, shut off their brains, and be completely content in their zombified like state as they get bright lights and and senseless murders pumped into their pupils.

- A.M.
( March 14th, 2009 | 6:38 am )
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Post #11
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I can't believe Taken is only PG-13! It was 16 here in Ireland and 18 in the UK when it came out in October. They must have either really watered it down, or the MPAA is as messed up as everyone says.

- Alan
( March 14th, 2009 | 8:27 am )
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Post #12
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There is actually very little difference between the PG-13 and the UK version of Taken…the torture scene is slightly different (in the uncut version he slammed big nails into the guys legs, and hooks the electric cables to that, in the PG-13 version he hooks the power to the chair.), and there is some other slight differences, but nothing major. There is no real bloody squibs or anything, basically just a few quicker cutaways.

- ckybltz
( March 14th, 2009 | 12:51 pm )
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Post #13
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I watched Watchmen and it dazzled me but im very dissapointed to see that it didnt strike high at the box office which it should have. I blame the average people for not relating to this magnificant piece of art . I myself have not read the novel however, i am very interested in doing so now that i have watched the movie. I guess not everyone can understand the complexity and sophistication of its philosophical ideas. Personally i think that the fact it is R-rated probably explains the low numbers.

- NADA
( March 14th, 2009 | 12:55 pm )
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Post #14
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@A.M.: Absolutely 100% right . Just the words I have been looking for , but its really dissapointing to see that people have reached such a level .

- NADA
( March 14th, 2009 | 1:02 pm )
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Post #15
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Its getting tiresome to keep hearing watchmen fanboys say that "average" people don't understand Watchmen, that they are "zombies" waiting to watch anything with bright lights, gratuitous action/sex, cgi effects (oh…wait, that sounds like watchmen)…and that its poor performance is actually a sign of unappreciated greatness. Its not.

Fanboys, get off of your "Simpsons'-Comic-Book-Guy-know-it-all-high-chair"…and be objective. The movie tanked because it has no real appeal. For that matter, if you read the "novel" with objective lenses….you'll find its a cheap rip off of so many themes and characters with a "deconstructed hero" twist that is supposed to make it ground-breaking (lame…btw). Nixon in his fifth term…pleeeeze. Its "intellectual" powerhouse of a writer has obviously failed in other efforts and chose the easy way–a comic book that allows him art panels and cheesy rip-offs to tell his tale. All the while, infusing "deep" themes/thought provoking commentary on humanity and the state of man versus its government, society, its nature, the future, blah, blah, bleh. If I wanted any of that from a comic book, I'd read something else. Actually, I take that back…I don't mind those themes in a comic book…its just that I don't like it when its so poorly forced and crafted in a "ooh…let-me-add-this-deep-theme-now and-let-me-add-this-deep-dialogue-right-about-here"… into a story. (think Stewie on family guy making fun of Brian's efforts at writing a novel and you'll get my take on Alan Moore).

Watchmen is not the Iliad, the Republic, the Aeneid, Thus Spoke Zarathustra or any other real piece of literature/philosophical work or any Top 100 novel for that matter. It is a flawed, somewhat readable, comic book with poor-to-average artwork. I guess its just mandatory to join the bandwagon of watchmen "praisers" lest you be thrown out of the comic book/gamers club.

The movie and novel stink. Average people know a stinker when they see it. Give the average man more credit.

- Ernesto
( March 14th, 2009 | 2:51 pm )
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Post #16
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boxofficemojo actually shows lower numbers for watchmen but a higher friday take for Miss March with 890,000 so should finish the weekend with probably almost 4 mil (or 66% of its budget) :)

- jeremy wein
( March 14th, 2009 | 4:52 pm )
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Post #17
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@Ernesto: I am certainly no Watchmen apologist. I found plenty wrong with it when I read it, Ernesto, so I'll give you that; however what the fuck is it with you people?? For the last time, YOU think it stunk. YOU think the graphic novel was flawed. What is it about every friggin' person here who feels the need to talk in absolutes? The fact the words "I believe" and "I think" are lost on this generation really bothers me. You are not the last word on what's good and what isn't. Stop presenting your personal opinions as fact.

- malevolentmuse
( March 14th, 2009 | 7:48 pm )
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Post #18
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@malevolentmuse: Excellent observation

I would like to applaud malevolentmuse for his observations. He has hit the talkbalk issue on the head. Talkbacks are interesting for its access to the fanbase and thier personal take on any given issue. One can read or ignore at thier own will. But to insult one another and put down anothers likes is pointless. Simply go to another website if you are unhappy and let those others enjoy. Too Many sites tolerate this behaviour– I hope this one will be the first to stop the nonsense and let fans talk to and back to fans and not just look for a fight wiith one another.

- Hitchhiker42
( March 15th, 2009 | 8:08 am )
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Post #19
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"Watchmen is going to make its money on dvd"

I don't know, many people have seen it more then once, so even less of the population has seen it then normal, and they will only buy one copy. And DVD sales are dying.

- Steve
( March 15th, 2009 | 10:14 am )
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Post #20
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Tidbit about my "Watchmen"experience– I have never read the GN, but I liked the premise of it. My boyfriend and I saw it opening weekend — chock full of fanboys of the source material BUT also pseudo-fanboys… Young adults and teen boys who indiscriminately, love anything comic-related (X-men, Spiderman, new Batman franchise, 300… etc.). The audience leaving afterwards was very split — the die hard FBs and people like me and my bf, who just wanted to see a good film, seemed to really like it, but the people who went in wanting to see something more along the lines of more standard superhero movies were VERY vocal about their dislike of the movie (not to mention, they were all ridiculously homophobically appalled at the blue penis). Friends of ours who saw it that weekend (and all enjoyed the movie) had similar experiences upon leaving the theater. I feel like the negative word of mouth from people like these angry viewers is what will mostly destroy the film. That, and the general unease that many young men seem to have at seeing nude men not being played for laughs. Just my 2 cents.

- Law
( March 17th, 2009 | 10:19 pm )
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