I could only vote on a couple, since i still haven't seen many of the nominated films. I have my work cut out for me, apparently…

I agree with most of your predictions, but i think Waltz with Bashir has a much better shot at foreign language film than Gomorrah.

I'm not going to watch every single nominated film; just the bigger ones, plus the ones I want to watch. I still need to watch Benjamin Button and Revolutionary Road, plus any extra movies that get nominated for Best Picture (I've already seen Milk, Slumdog, TDK, and others). But if Wrestler doesn't get nominated for Best Picture, I'm skipping it. Same for Gran Torino. The rest I can make an educated guess based on buzz.

JM- You'd skip a movie that is making EVERYONE's top ten list, just because it doesn't get a best picture nomination? I haven't seen it yet either, but I simply cannot wait to see the wrestler, oscar nom or not.

@Scott: I agree, Waltz with Bashir definitely has a solid chance.

@Jonathan:

I agree, if you don't want to see a movie that's fine, but if you have any urge to see a movie don't let it not getting Oscar nominations deter you. That's probably the reason why so many people missed out on Zodiac last year. A fantastic film, one of my favorites, probably the best film in history not to get an Oscar nomination (off the top of my head).

That said, I've seen both The Wrestler and Gran Torino. I'd highly recommend Torino if for nothing else than the tour de force performance from Eastwood. The Wrestler felt very mediocre to me, lots of contrived story points and bad acting from Evan Rachel Wood. Rourke is great, but seems to be playing himself and I don't think that's as difficult as everyone else does. Tomei is great as always, an probably Oscar nomination worthy, but she doesn't exactly blow me away. The Wrestler has a very good performance and a great ending, nothing else.

Call me crazy, but since there isn't any real momentum in the Best Actor (Comedy) race, or at least a clear cut favorite, I actually think Brendan Gleeson could take it, since the HFP loves to award the vet British (Or in this case, Scotish…or Irish) actors, especially in tight races. Plus, I haven't seen the movie, but when I read reviews last winter/spring, people were raving about his performance more so then Colin Farrell. Still, Farrell has been getting more love this award season despite, and since I'm one of few to vote for Gleeson, I'll probably be wrong; that's my risky pick of the ceremony though lol.

@Scott: agreed bro

@mani, Scott, Garrett: You guys are probably right, I just can't figure out if the Bashir buzz will move into the major awards or not. I personally thought the movie was just okay with a powerful ending and maybe that is what is throwing me off. It would definitely be #2 in terms of predictions even though my heart is still with ILYSL.

As long as "Curious Case" doesn't win anything, I'll be happy. Awful film.

Also, more than a little upset that Darren Aronofsky didn't get nominated for "The Wrestler". I think it was the film with the strongest "feel" to it (very cold and gritty), and everything else about it was perfect. The script and Wood also deserved nominations. I really hope Rourke wins Best Actor. Penn was fantastic, but I thought Rourke's performance was so raw and honest. Sure he was kind of playing himself, but I think that only heightens the pain of the performance.

I doubt anyone but mr. penn will win the golden globe, but I think that the oscars may choose who I think deserves it, rourke.

By the way, how much of a joke are tom cruise's and ralph fiennes' nominations? Ralph Fiennes was not fantastic in the Duchess, and Tom Cruise…….. as it were, one of the only sources praising Ralph in The Duchess is the LA Times, coincidentally close to where the Golden Globes are based….

I think they nommed Fiennes for the wrong film. He's should've been nommed for In Bruges rather than The Duchess.

I don't understand how every category basically mirrors all the other nominations that have been announced for awards shows and critic's lists, and then the Best Supporting Actor is so screwed up!

Yes, I am confused about why the hell Tom Cruise is nominated, but I am equally confused about why only this one category was so erratic.

I wish Mickey Rourke would win just one of the major awards this season.

I've got a better question: Why hasn't 'Cadillac Records' been nominated for any awards whatsoever?? It was certainly better than Revolutionary road

I'd like to see Frank Langella take best actor…but he prob won't. There is not a slacker in the bunch…all amazing performances so any one who wins will work for me. I don't particularly get the hype about Slumdog Millionaire…and I wish Revolutionary Road would win best pic…but I think Slumdog will take it. Good luck to all the actors…they are all talented and deserve to be recognized.

ben button will win best picture one of the best films i've seen in a long time