Button or Milk FTW; could easily replace Milk with Dark Knight; simply because Milk has more of a performance buzz going for it; or even The Reader could be replaced because there really hasn't been that big of a buzz around that one.

Plus, I have a feeling Slumdog would be nominated and win the Best Foreign Film prize.

Button
Milk
Slumdog
Wall-E
Frost Nixon

but hypothetically, if Wall-E is out along with The Dark Knight, I think it'll be…

Button
Milk
Slumdog
Frost Nixon
Doubt

I loved TDK but I think it'll fall into the same boat as The Diving Bell and the Butterfly last year, which got a PGA nomination but missed out on best picture. I didn't think Wall-E would stand a chance at gaining even a little momentum for the big prize this awards season considering the bias against animation, but boy was I dead wrong. I'm hoping it makes it.

Mind you oscars does have the animated movie category for this specific dilema… Wall-E is going to win it hands down.. but i too think Wall-E deserves a special mention in the main category… it was a breathe of fresh air in a year where most movies focused on despair and other ugly human emotions… i hope its either Milk or The Dark Knight

From what I see in the trailers for "The Wrestler," Mickey Rourke seems to be playing another down-on-his-luck sports person who's estranged his daughter and is trying to make a comeback. Red flags are going up all around. Sure, it won't be as bad as "Raging Bull," and sure Darren Aronofsky is a damn sight better at directing than Martin Scorsese, but I still don't want to watch "The Wrestler." But if it gets nominated for Best Picture, I'll feel obligated to, because I've promised myself to watch all the Best Picture nominees, just like I did last year,

Anyway, back to "Doubt." It's just a great film. I has an extremely good chance of being nominated for Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, and maybe even Best Actor. That's three of the five major academy awards. With that many, the chance of also being nominated for Best Picture increase exponentially. It'll also probably get a nom for Best Supporting Actress and Best Musical Score.

Benjamin Button
Doubt
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Frost/Nixon was ok, but for me, it didn't have "it" to be among the best picture nominees. Besides, I feel that id doesn't figure to be one that will have as passionate support from voters that will make it their no.1 or no.2 in their nominating ballots. Wall-E and TDK seemingly has that kind of strong passionate support and I see both garnering plenty of no.1's and no.2's. I give the edge to Wall-E. It helps that the film is getting unprecedented momentum for an animated film, being on every top 10 of critics groups and film groups, and actually winning a handful of best picture accolades already. The only thing that I see keeping it from the best picture arena is if some voters can't see it in them to view it as a film, and sees it as a cartoon through and through-which would be a damn shame.

You want to know why the masses rarely take to 'Oscar movies'? That's because the masses have repeatedly shown to go to movies for the purpose of dumb escapism. Oscar movies are generally weightier and heavier. I mean no offense to the 'masses' ('blockbuster' being used as an insult is pathetic), but most people simply aren't willing to face a movie that features entertainment on the cerebral level.

TDK is so great because it manages to be a movie that can be enjoyed for its entertainment value and its intellectual power. The former makes it popular with the masses, the latter makes it an oscar-worthy movie.

That said, I can see CCOBB and/or TDK being nominated for the TV ratings. Honestly, if it's stupid o'clock in the morning, are you going to bother staying up to find out which one of 5 films you haven't seen are going to be voted Best Picture?

Oh, and Milk will win, if only so everyone can prove how non-homophobic they are after all the fuss about Brokeback Mountain being robbed.

While I was sick and tired of hearing about The Dark Knight because some guy who played some cowboy in a movie and OD'd was so good (He was alright but by no means what critics made him out to be) the movie was really good. It was entertaining. IronMan the same. I can't stand Downy movies from before this but Ironman was great.

I really do not think Slumdog is as good as everyone says it is although I really did enjoy – I just like enjoyed Ironman but I still wouldn't put them in Best Picture talk. That being said your four shoe ins are probably correct and for the fifth I would lean towards TDK

The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk

I only know because I have seen the voting. So no Wall-E, No Doubt, no Frost/Nixon.

Sorry, but those are just facts.

i (and a whole bunch of my friends, family, neighbors, relatives, colleagues) absolutely fell in love with this film. I personally liked it more than Doubt, Revolutionary road or Reader.

I'm talking about 'The Fall'.

Also, how can you justify saying that they majority prefers films like Iron Man, The Dark Knight and Hancock when you've clearly pointed out that the public hasn't seen the smaller, independent films that aren't lucky enough to get a wide release.

The fact that critics get behind these smaller films is also a positive indication of their worth when it comes to finding an audience.

Not because people went to see the movies and enjoyed them but because a few critics think it's good but obviously the public doesn't.

The Ironman, Dark Knight, WALL-E, Hancock. These were all great movies and the public thought so. Guess what. These 4 movies are in the top 5 of all grossing movies in 2008 with the least making over 200 million domestically. Those movies should win awards for Best Picture because they were.

Give best actor and stuff to whoever but best picture should truly be, "Best Picture".

Dobut-The movie was good, but it never clearly gives you a definate answer, and the ending might leave a bad taste in one's mouth, and Amy Adam's performance was okay, but not great.

Rev. Road-This movie is just too sad and depressing for these days. Nobody wants to sit through 2 hours of people arguing about home issues. People do that enough in their own lives anyway. The performances were good, but I mean, this movie is not one that Oscars shoud nominate.

The Wrestler-I loved the Wrestler. I mean, I'm talkin top 10 of the year…I wouldn't mind a nod for this one, but….this film might not have the affect on some voters as it did on me. The film rests heavily on Mickey Rourke. The edgeiness of the film might turn some voters away too. I could see a nod, but I doubt it.

The Reader-This film seems to me like The Great Debators was last year. No body even cared before it got a Golden Globe nomination, but thats the thing. It has just gotten a Golden Globe nomination. Nothing else besides honors for Winslet, and a GG for Daldry. This film hasn't done good anywhere else, and didn't do hot with the critics either.

So TDK and Wall-e have a better chance than these few.

Wall-e, on the other hand, I think is definitely going to lose out simply because of the Animated Feature category, which is one of the same reasons why documentaries never get nominated for Best Picture either.

With that said, I agree with Ethan's predictions:

-Milk
-Slumdog Millionaire
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Frost/Nixon
-The Dark Knight

I think Revolutionary Road will lose out simply because it's disappointing considering the talent behind it, although I did find it to be a very good movie anyway. Also, I think The Wrestler will definitely get an actor nod, but I don't think it will get a picture nod because the Academy is definitely rooted in a Modernistic mindset that the movies should be a reflection of the elite (i.e. "artsy"), and The Wrestler is a very postmodern, gritty movie. As for Doubt and The Reader, I haven't seen either of them but they are getting more mixed review than the others on that list so we'll see.