But despite my opinion on the quality of the book in general, people will and have swarmed to go see it. Will it be as good or as popular as Harry Potter? I think not. But I do think it will be a success.

And to leave with my favourite line from Twilight:

He lay perfectly still in the grass, his shirt open over his sculpted, incandescent chest, his scintillating arms bare.

The adjectives in the series crack me up.

Also, I have a question. Does Bella's heart stop when Edward kisses her in the hospital, in the movie?

Huh.

How about them apples….

Guess I was wrong…guess it'll make over $200 Million before it leaves theatres!

I can admit I was wrong…can all of you negative-nellies?? ;)

Prediction is that the movie will make over 100m. People of all ages will go back and see it over again as well as purchase the DVD. I do hope that more funds are spent in producing the sequel for the special effects. I also hope that the NEW MOON and ECLIPSE are combined, I don't feel that a NEW MOON sequel would be able to carry the load alone.

Guys – take your girls – you'll enjoy Twilight also!!

It doesn't help that these same fans are actively alienating anyone who isn't already a fan of the book, rather than trying to convert them to their side. Instead of trying to make the movie sound more appealing, the basic response seems to be, "It's our movie, leave us alone!" And so we will, and we'll take our money with us.

Given the pretty stiff competition next weekend (Bolt is getting good buzz and has an excellent marketing campaign, and Madagascar, Role Models, and Bond will likely have good legs), I'll be surprised if Twilight opens at more than $10M and absolutely floored if it opens at more than $20M. I'd look for a total domestic take of well under $75M, with little added from international sales.

If the number of views on the latest trailer are any sign, I'd say tycox's statement could be a bit off…regarding something to the affect of 'there aren't enough teenage girls to get Twilight to the $100 million mark.' (Again, I paraphrase.)

And so I'd just like to say that no, I agree that there aren't enough teenage girls to get it to that high a number, but with the help of the twenty-something's and the thirty-something's who are bringing husbands and boyfriends, and then going back with their other 20-30 something girlfriends…well, them and the teenage girls, and the curious boys…I don't see that goal being unreachable.

As for Hardwicke…I liked the Nativity Story and I've heard nothing but good things about Thirteen and Lords of Dogtown. But to each their own.

As I started…we'll know all in a few months.

BeautifulM said: A better question is will The Curious Case of Benjamin Button make its budget back???

I think the question is which movie will still be remembered in 5, 10, 20+ years. I'd bet on The Curious Case of Benjamin Button winning on that.

shannon said: Her past work aside, as that has nothing to do with the work she's put into Twilight, I'd like to discuss your views on the response you quoted her as saying…

It sounds to me, and I have no idea about the quote in context – IE: to whom she was speaking, and what the question was exactly.

Common sense to me. Play the crowd you have. If you're doing an interview for Time Magazine AND then another for, say, Seventeen Magazine, and you are asked the very same question…wouldn't your answer be different?
I would give the very response she gave. I imagine, if that quote is from Comic Con or something similar, that response brought about many a scream and a cheer.

Yes, her past work can be used to gauge the "possible" quality of her upcoming work. If Uwe Boll was making Twilight, wouldn't you use his previous work as a barometer for your expectations. The same could be said if Peter Jackson was making Twilight, in which the standard would be much much higher. When a filmmaker, such as Hardwicke, had made 2 awful films and one mediocre one I like to stay within the world of reality and keep my expectations low for her next (and maybe I'll be surprised).

As for the context of my favorite quote. The question was what was the appeal of vampires? That was the direct answer to that question…and yes, an answer perfect for teenage girls. However, Hardwicke, who came off as a complete flake, kept repeating the same phrase throughout in off-hand remarks "I want to be bitten by vampire." (stuff that I didn't even bother wasting the time to transcribe when I posted the interview). The group she was talking to was a cynical round-table of male web reporters at comic-con. So she wasn't exactly playing to the crowd very well. Nor did she give any sense that the she had any understanding of the genre or material above an 11th grade education.

I believe that despite nay-sayers, negative attitude by reviewers jaded from constant immersion to Indy-burn, and the Duran Duran-esque obsessiveness of the tween fandom, the audience for this film will be surprising and diverse.

Now, as with anything in our media manipulated world, if this doesn't translate to some huge numbers earnings-wise, the film and the hype will be discounted and underestimated. I can only say to this sort of jaundiced mentality, it won't matter one tiny bit to any Twilight fan worth their weight.

davidfrank said: It's quite simple, really. You don't have Lords of Dogtown and The Nativity Story on your resume.

Oh, and I've sat next to Hardwicke as she discussed Twilight, and you don't exactly dig yourself out of the hack hole when the most intellectually profound statement you can muster is "Vampires are sexy. They’re not like creepy old zombies and mummies. They’re sexy. They’re hot."

Her past work aside, as that has nothing to do with the work she's put into Twilight, I'd like to discuss your views on the response you quoted her as saying…

It sounds to me, and I have no idea about the quote in context – IE: to whom she was speaking, and what the question was exactly – but based on her response, and many other responses she's given to a multitude of questions, she's very smart in how she answers. She estimates who her audience is or will be, and she plays into their hands. In the quote you've posted, her response sounds like she's specifically talking to the Twilight novel fans, perhaps Comic Con, or another venue that has many of the novel readers present. She seems to be telling her audience what they want to hear.

Common sense to me. Play the crowd you have. If you're doing an interview for Time Magazine AND then another for, say, Seventeen Magazine, and you are asked the very same question…wouldn't your answer be different? Mine would. I would think about the readers of Time and word the response accordingly. If it's the Seventeen Mag interview (or say, Comic Con,) I would give the very response she gave. I imagine, if that quote is from Comic Con or something similar, that response brought about many a scream and a cheer.

Nothing wrong with working the crowd.

But, as I said, I don't know the context of davidfrank's quote.

Again I say, $100 million + … easy.

(And as usual…excellent post and points robineau!!)

My earlier post about box office numbers was for the opening weekend only. I still think its DVD sales will be bigger overall.

As for Rob Pattinson fans, he is a very good actor. He's very versital. He has a varied resume playing everything from nerds to jocks. Harry Potter and Twilight will show that Rob can bring in a cash audience, movies like How to Be and Little Ashes will show he's an "authentic actor" and not some pretty boy.

shannon said: First, I'd like to get clarification on what it takes to not be considered a 'hack' in the directorial world…? [/B]

It's quite simple, really. You don't have Lords of Dogtown and The Nativity Story on your resume.

Oh, and I've sat next to Hardwicke as she discussed Twilight, and you don't exactly dig yourself out of the hack hole when the most intellectually profound statement you can muster is "Vampires are sexy. They’re not like creepy old zombies and mummies. They’re sexy. They’re hot."

robineau said: Well, if anyone could reliably and accurately predict box office figures 100% of the time, they'd be pulling down the really big bucks and living it up in Hollywood right now.

That said, I think the audience for Twilight is wider than many believe, the enthusiasm of that audience is underestimated, and that overall the film is going to do very, very well.

I can't speak for all Twilight fans (I am one, but I'm really more of a Pattinson fan), but I believe the strength of the reactions you might be receiving is due to the pandering and dismissive nature of some comments made by journalists and bloggers about this fan base. As pointed out in other comments, these fans are not just a bunch of squealing 14-year-old girls. Sure, there are plenty of squealing girls in the mix, but anyone who thinks that particular group is the entire audience is going to be very surprised. I am part of a large and very varied internet group that talks about this film a lot and yes, most of the posters are adults (and no, it's not the now-famous Twilight Moms site…although they have a huge group as well).

I hate to throw gender into the mix…but the fact that this audience is predominently female seems to make it a target. I can't help but think that if this movie had a large and enthusiastic teenage and young MALE following, the comments would be completely different. Instead, we'd be hearing about how the movie was going to make back its budget during the first week and breaking $100-million in two or three. Yes, young males are a huge part of Hollywood's business and they tend to drive big business…but females can, too. That is, they can if Hollywood actually does a great film that is catered to them.

So, that brings us to the great unknown. Is the movie going to be any good? I haven't seen it so I will have to say I have no idea. I will say that from what I've read, they seem to be doing everything right: the script was good, the marketing looks solid, and I frankly think Catherine Hardwicke hit it out of the ballpark with the casting. I believe that in the end, if the chemistry between the two main characters, Bella and Edward, is right…nothing else will matter. The film will explode…and yes there will be tons of repeat viewings.

I think the chemistry is better than "right", therefore I've got to predict $100 million plus.

Very well said. =D> I think even with the enormous buzz it's created. People still underestimate it. I think the nay sayers will be very surprised.

That said, I think the audience for Twilight is wider than many believe, the enthusiasm of that audience is underestimated, and that overall the film is going to do very, very well.

I can't speak for all Twilight fans (I am one, but I'm really more of a Pattinson fan), but I believe the strength of the reactions you might be receiving is due to the pandering and dismissive nature of some comments made by journalists and bloggers about this fan base. As pointed out in other comments, these fans are not just a bunch of squealing 14-year-old girls. Sure, there are plenty of squealing girls in the mix, but anyone who thinks that particular group is the entire audience is going to be very surprised. I am part of a large and very varied internet group that talks about this film a lot and yes, most of the posters are adults (and no, it's not the now-famous Twilight Moms site…although they have a huge group as well).

I hate to throw gender into the mix…but the fact that this audience is predominently female seems to make it a target. I can't help but think that if this movie had a large and enthusiastic teenage and young MALE following, the comments would be completely different. Instead, we'd be hearing about how the movie was going to make back its budget during the first week and breaking $100-million in two or three. Yes, young males are a huge part of Hollywood's business and they tend to drive big business…but females can, too. That is, they can if Hollywood actually does a great film that is catered to them.

So, that brings us to the great unknown. Is the movie going to be any good? I haven't seen it so I will have to say I have no idea. I will say that from what I've read, they seem to be doing everything right: the script was good, the marketing looks solid, and I frankly think Catherine Hardwicke hit it out of the ballpark with the casting. I believe that in the end, if the chemistry between the two main characters, Bella and Edward, is right…nothing else will matter. The film will explode…and yes there will be tons of repeat viewings.

I think the chemistry is better than "right", therefore I've got to predict $100 million plus.

I couldn't agree more! Very similar to what I said, somewhere in the middle of my post…

Laremy said: I think it has a huge online audience, like Serenity, but very little crossover appeal. I'd say an opening in the $30s could happen, and it will probably hit $65m overall domestically. Probably not much international appeal. It will make just enough money to make a sequel option a tough choice.

Actually the sequal is already going ahead. The script for New Moon is complete and they start filming in January. Hardwicke no doubt will be scouting for locations in Rome when she attends the film festival later this month.:D:D:hello:

Thanks for the Pr for the franchise and Rob Pattinson in particular.

And, indeed, it has happened before: I actually met a middle-aged woman in 1997, who went to see Titanic seven (!) times in one week. I highly doubt she quit after the seventh time either (didn't look like it)… Something similar will probably happen here, and then there will be the DVD sales for everyone who still didn't get their Twilight fix. I would find it much more interesting to see, if the movie itself (all Pattinson fanaticism aside) will generate enough interest for all the sequels to be made and be well received.

And – even more interesting – how will the filmmakers go about it? The characters in the books are not supposed to age, but the real-life actors won't be so lucky. Unless they go about it the "Lord of the Rings" way and film them all in one go, we will be seeing the young actors approaching 30 by the time things wrap up with the fourth installment. This worked out okay for Harry Potter, because they are supposed to be maturing, but it's a very different story in the Twilight series.

And, I have no doubts whatsoever, that Twilight will be a 'box-office' hit. The questions in the poll does not limit the voting to 'opening weekend' but it leads the reader to believe it's talking of overall box office success. I too believe it will break the $100 million mark…though no, not in the first weekend…overall.

And again, while the books were placed in the young adult genre, much like the HP books were, fans of the books range from 11-12 year old to 50+ year olds. Yes, 50+ men and women. Do all of them frequent this website? Um, no. Sorry.

But you know what? We all just have to sit back and wait. All the guessing and estimating and put-downs and build-ups will have nothing to do with the final numbers. The numbers will speak for themselves.

The same goes for the talent that is Robert Pattinson. Yes, I'm going there. So what if he has a fan-base willing to take the time to vote for him, to talk about him, to defend him. So what? It's more than I can say for fanbases of a lot of other actors. You'd think it would be obvious that by all of the fans responding to RoS's first article about 'the next big make movie star' we got more written up on Rob Pattinson. And look here, even more on the actor and his film and fans. Wow…it's almost like free press DOES work.

But back to the topic at hand. Over $100 million by the time the film leaves theatres. And then, just imagine the DVD sales. I'm not worried about this film OR Rob's career in the least.

Thanks for another article and more PR on Rob and the film!

bellsfromep said: It will easily break the 100 million mark (the reason it's compared to Titanic, is because fans "will" return to watch it again and again)

Will they return if the film blows or just OK at best? …And let's face it, that looks likely considering the lameass footage, and even more so when you consider a hack like Catherine Hardwicke is helming the film.