Filed under: Oscar Contenders

Oscar Update: What's There to Talk About?

Things sure aren't moving at a very quick clip this year

Is it just me or is the awards race this year a little boring? Nothing is moving the dial as Oscar pundits seem to have had their hands when it comes to tossing out much early praise.

So far the one film that should have everyone standing up cheering is Lee Daniels and Lionsgate's Precious, but I don't even want to speculate as to why people are now only focusing on the negative and wondering if Mo'Nique is killing her Oscar chances. EW's Dave Karger is the latest to bring it up wondering if dirt-digger Roger Friedman's piece on Mo'Nique's demands for appearance fees will hurt her chances. Karger remembers his interview with her from earlier in the year when she said, "Any buzz is appreciated. The NAACP Image Awards, the Oscars, the SAG Award, the award they might want to give me down at the Maxine Waters' Preparatory school, it's always appreciated. But the moment Mr. Daniels said to me when we wrapped that movie, 'You gave me what I needed,' that was my Oscar."

Personally I love the play, if Mo'Nique deserves the Oscar, give it to her. Politicking in the Academy Awards race is the worst part and I am beginning to feel Precious, the best dramatic film I've seen so far this year, is going to be a victim of several things keeping it from the top prize, and the silence from the Oscar circles is just another sign. I haven't seen Jason Reitman's Up In the Air yet, but it is going to need to be pretty damn good to convince me it's better than Precious and it seems to be the current front-runner in terms of films that have been seen.

Speaking of Up in the Air another Original Song brew-ha-ha is a brew-ha-ha'ing as Steve Pond at The Wrap reports the song titled "Up in the Air" which plays during the second half of the end credits won't be eligible for a nomination. The fact it isn't positioned properly inside the film is one demerit against it, but the more important piece of the equation is the fact it wasn't written specifically for the film. St. Louis musician Kevin Renick handed a cassette to Reitman after the director did a Q&A at Webster University and Reitman listened to it, liked it and put it into the movie. It's titled "Up in the Air" even though Renick didn't know Reitman's movie existed at the time. It looks like this will have to merely be a good story and not an Oscar-nominated story for the musician.

As we abruptly move on… Where the hell is anything related to Clint Eastwood's Invictus? I'm sorry, but this late season Oscar baiting from Eastwood over the past few years is just about as annoying as it gets. I was no fan of Gran Torino and was happy to see it didn't sneak into Oscar consideration last year, and with Warner Bros. yet to release a teaser trailer or even an official still from Invictus — even though we are now less than two months away from its release — is just baffling. It is the only film still to be released this year without any kind of marketing whatsoever and based on pedigree alone it is considered a top contender.

Other, yet-to-be-seen and discussed possibilities include Rob Marshall's Nine which was moved into December, James Cameron's Avatar, Jim Sheridan's Brothers and the possible De Niro five-spotter Everybody's Fine. Of the bunch I think we can all pick and plot where a potential nom will come from, but I can't help but wonder if Brothers has the power to really capture critic and audience attention.

Christopher Plummer and Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Photo: Sony Classics

We have also now learned of a last minute addition to the schedule as Sony Pictures Classics will release Michael Hoffman's The Last Station this December, a film that stars Christopher Plummer, Helen Mirren, James McAvoy and Paul Giamatti. I guess it just wouldn't be an Oscar race without Mirren eh? The film is based on the final months in the life of Leo Tolstoy with Plummer playing the role of Tolstoy as Pete Hammond at the Los Angeles Times writes, "In addition to Plummer and Mirren, the film sports a couple of outstanding supporting roles for Giamatti and particularly McAvoy as Tolstoy's new secretary." The image above is just one of 14 images I just added to the site, get the rest right here and you can read the full synopsis here.

Next we move to an Academy Award category that has never appealed to me, the Oscar Short Documentary category as the Academy recently announced the eight films that made the short list. Of course, any fanboy blogger out there is instantly going to gravitate toward Tell Them Anything You Want, the Spike Jonze and Lance Bangs-directed doc on Maurice Sendak, author of "Where The Wild Things Are." The list is just below.

  • China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province, Downtown Community Television Center, Inc.
  • The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner, Just Media
  • The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, Community Media Productions
  • Lt. Watada, Chanlim Films
  • Music by Prudence, iThemba Productions, Inc.
  • Rabbit a la Berlin, MS Films
  • Tell Them Anything You Want: A Portrait of Maurice Sendak, Outside Productions
  • Woman Rebel, Women Rebel Films

The next list to recently be completed is the list of 63 Oscar Foreign Language submissions. I recently finished compiling the list with the addition of films from Bangladesh and the United Kingdom. You can check out the complete list right here.

As for predictions, I only updated my Best Supporting Actor category bumping Richard Kind in A Serious Man out of the top five and moving Bright Star co-star Paul Schneider into the five-spot, but this is the one category that really is dominated by the current list of top four contenders and of that bunch two are still unseen wild cards. Right now Alfred Molina (An Education) and Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) are the leaders in the clubhouse while Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) and Matt Damon (Invictus) are the top still-to-be-seen stars. I moved Tucci into that top spot for reasons I detailed in my last update.

As I said last time, I will also begin listing off the presumed Oscar contenders I have not seen and after seeing The Road and Where the Wild Things Are yesterday, this is where I stand in terms of films left to see:

There are others, of course, such as some of the animated contenders and The White Ribbon among other foreign films. I did recently see Antichrist and Coco Avant Chanel, but the list above is primarily made of films thought to play a potentially major role in the upcoming Oscar season and may grow as things move on, but chances are it will get smaller before it gets any larger.

And there you have it, you can check out all my current Oscar Predictions by visiting The Contenders or clicking on any one of the following links to get started. Each opens in a new window so just close the window to return to this post.

Remember to bookmark The Contenders and/or subscribe to the Contenders RSS Feed for continuous awards updates.


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Post #1
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Well Gran Torino was released the same weekend as Invictus, and the trailer for GT came out in the end of October. So I don't think the lack of marketing for Invictus is surprising.

The most interesting film of the whole bunch to me is easily The Lovely Bones, loved the book, the story is unconventional and the movie is filled with amazing actors, directed by one of my favourite directors. Damn, I want to see it right now… and it has all the chances to be a frontrunner in the race.

- Nick
( October 13th, 2009 | 2:36 am )
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Post #2
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You saw The Road??? I don't know if I could be more jealous.

I'm very curious to know what your opinion of it is?

- Kevin
( October 13th, 2009 | 3:01 am )
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Post #3
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I'm still hoping for The Hurt Locker to get nominated and with ten slots, why don't we throw big commercial movie into that bunch that's worthy of it? Seriously, I wouldn't mind seeing nominations go out Star Trek or maybe Avatar, though the latter has yet to be seen. While were at it, Joey Levitt for 500 days of summer and could we possibly see Peter Saragaard finally get a nod for an Education?

- Colin
( October 13th, 2009 | 9:27 am )
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Post #4
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Clint Eastwood doesn't make Oscar bait. He makes good movies. If you can't tell the difference, it's more a problem with you than it is with him.

- Kevin Klawitter
( October 13th, 2009 | 9:27 am )
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Post #5
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@Kevin Klawitter: Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima were both flawed films. If you can't tell the difference between a flawed film and a good movie then I'd say the problem is more with you.

- laremy
( October 13th, 2009 | 9:34 am )
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Post #6
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@laremy: So, a movie can't be "good" if it has flaws? I thought a movie with no flaws was "perfect" (Million Dollar Baby), a movie with minimal or unnoticeable flaws was "great" (Letters from Iwo Jima), and a movie with some flaws that didn't distract too much from the rest of the movie was "good" (Flags of Our Fathers).

But that's just me. You're free to see the world completely in terms of black and white if you wish.

- Kevin Klawitter
( October 13th, 2009 | 9:38 am )
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Post #7
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What made Million Dollar baby a perfect film? To me that might have been one of the most overrated features to win best picture.

- Colin
( October 13th, 2009 | 9:48 am )
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Post #8
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Massive emotional impact, bravery in handling controversial subject matter, and one of the best supporting performances I've ever seen, for one.

But, I know some people don't like Million Dollar Baby. I'm fine with that. I can understand how some people can consider it flawed. I can understand why some people don't like the work of Paul Haggis. I just happen to love it.

- Kevin Klawitter
( October 13th, 2009 | 9:52 am )
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Post #9
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@Kevin Klawitter: I have a hard time understanding why thinking Eastwood's films are Oscar bait insinuates I have a problem. Aren't Oscar bait films typically good anyway and on top of that, don't they typically enjoy limited releases in December to gain popularity on critic year-end top ten lists and enjoy the wave of marketing and word-of-mouth up and until the Oscars?

It seems you are getting insulted over trivial things when my only complaint is the lack of marketing and how I would like to see something for the film.

@Colin: I actually liked Million Dollar Baby quite a bit. I was not a fan, however, of Flags of Our Fathers or Letters from Iwo Jima.

- Brad Brevet (Post Author)
( October 13th, 2009 | 9:58 am )
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Post #10
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@Brad Brevet: Ah. I misunderstood. You see, I get frustrated when people talk about so-called "Oscar-bait" like it's a bad thing. I want to see more about "Invictus", too. It's just that your comments about it and Clitn Eastwood seemed mean-spirited to me, and that made me angry.

- Kevin Klawitter
( October 13th, 2009 | 10:11 am )
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Post #11
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Didn't see Iwo Jima, but I remember the year it came out friends of mine couldn't stop ranting about how Eastwood deserved the oscar more than scorsese did and that Marty was only getting it cause everyone felt bad for him.
Baby had its moments, but there were problems with it that overshadowed the positive for me. Freemans drolled out narration that almost felt like a rehash of his work on Shawshank, some bad acting from its supporting cast who were likley chosen more on appearance than anything else. Overwhlemingly depressing, and frankly without much hope for any character in the film. I admired that it was taking on controversial subject matter, but I wonder if the film would still have gotten praise for that if it weren't for the debate over the Terry Chiavo (sp) incident when it came out.

Back to the current Oscar race, Brad, what are the chances you think we could see something as commercial as Star Trek or Avatar get a best pic nod? I won't ask your thoughts on Wild Things, or The Road yet since I'm sure you'll post your reviews of them in a few days.

- Colin
( October 13th, 2009 | 10:20 am )
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Post #12
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@Colin: Yeah, still trying to completely figure out my opinion on The Road and WTWA, as for commercial chances at the Oscars I currently think Avatar stands the best chance only because after watching Star Trek a second time it was still a fun movie, but overall it has a lot of flaws. Of course, depending on how these next few months turn out Trek could still be one of the last ten standing.

- Brad Brevet (Post Author)
( October 13th, 2009 | 11:14 am )
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Post #13
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Trek does have its flaws, but as far as popcorn movies go, it was definitley the best of the bunch for me of this past year, at least of the live action bunch, though Avatar could change that.

- Colin
( October 13th, 2009 | 11:57 am )
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Post #14
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Brad: when are you going to put up a screenplay category in the contenders section? I'm dyin here!

- Dan Tralder
( October 13th, 2009 | 2:17 pm )
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Post #15
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"It is the only film still to be released this year without any kind of marketing whatsoever and based on pedigree alone it is considered a top contender."

What about the Tree of Life, its supposed to be released at christmas and we haven't seen any publicity from it either. Not that I disagree with you Brad, I think both films need to start marketing since they are being released in less the 2 months.

- Kid
( October 13th, 2009 | 3:25 pm )
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Post #16
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@Kid: I am really beginning to doubt we will see Tree of Life this year. I have a feeling Apparition is going to stick with Bright Star and perhaps get a nod with The Young Victoria. Just a guess of course.

- Brad Brevet (Post Author)
( October 13th, 2009 | 3:41 pm )
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Post #17
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Does anybody think Inglourious Basterds could get a nod? It was a fantastic, sadistic movie that really made me laugh- without very strong competition this year, I think it might have a chance of squeezing in.

- Bustray
( October 13th, 2009 | 7:13 pm )
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Post #18
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where is Public Enemies? Johnny Depp was spectacular

- Robert
( October 13th, 2009 | 7:49 pm )
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Post #19
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@Bustray: Without very strong competition? We're only in mid-October – I know Buzz is slow now, but with the way things are going, I can't imagine myself calling this year low competition, especially compared to last year.

What category are you thinking for Inglorious? Picture? I have trouble imagining it getting the tenth spot, and find it impossible to imagine it getting any of the first 8 spots. We'll see, but I sure wouldn't bet on it. Luckily, betting's not the point.

Brad…. writing contenders section… when…?

- Dan Tralder
( October 13th, 2009 | 10:48 pm )
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Post #20
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I think the Oscar show had better enlist the Jolie Pitts to present of something or the show will bomb again. They bring the glamour and the viewers.

- Dee
( October 14th, 2009 | 7:53 am )
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Post #21
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The Oscarcast never bombs. It's consistently the second-highest rated TV broadcast of the year, after the Superbowl. It just happens that in recent years viewership has gone down, but then again, that's been the case with TV in general.

In fact, last year, viewership went considerably UP. So stop spreading the bullshit rumor that the Oscars bomb. It's just plain wrong.

- Kevin Klawitter
( October 14th, 2009 | 8:30 am )
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Post #22
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what about "the messenger"?

- asdf
( October 15th, 2009 | 2:03 pm )
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Post #23
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Up isn't gunna get nominated for best picture, neither is Star Trek, The Hangover, District 9 or Where The Wild Things Are like people are predicting. Beauty And The Beast was only nominated for best picture back in 1992 because there was no animated feature category back then.brush up on your history before you type stupid comments. Up sucked anyway but seeing as it's Pixar, it will automatically win, destroying the hopes for Astro Boy, 9, Battle For Terra, etc.

- Robert
( October 16th, 2009 | 9:08 pm )
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Post #24
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Robert is right. The Academy has installed the animated category for one reason:TO HONOUR ANIMATED FILMS.and all these idiots are swarming to their computers, adding Up to their predictions for best picture. IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN.GIVE IT UP, PLEASE

- Vinny
( October 16th, 2009 | 9:13 pm )
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Post #25
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Brad, do you honestly think Up will earn a best picture nomination?

- Vinny
( October 16th, 2009 | 9:16 pm )
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Post #26
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Hey Brad,
I went to the screening of Precious at the New Yorker festival. AND WE ALL KNOW that Mo'Niques performance is probably the top 3 performances ever on screen. I believe that during the November months she will come out and make her mark. But who can beat her? Julianne Moore? I think she is getting nominated more for her being in a Best Movie picture. And now you are talking about Penelope Cruz. She did a fine job in Vicky Christina Barcelona, but it dosent compare to this performance. I hope that you can support someone who just had a baby mind you, and support someone that really deserves this oscar for best supporting actress because if she dosent, its because of people like you saying bad stuff about her (sorry if i sounded rude, but it is true) hope that you can respond to me :) thank you

- Scott S
( October 18th, 2009 | 9:36 am )
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Post #27
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I agree with Robert – Depp was great!

- @ Robert
( October 19th, 2009 | 6:39 pm )
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