Great list. Basically matched what I've been predicting as well. The only other ones I can think of at this point would be Brothers (with Jake Gyllenhaal, Natalie Portman and Tobey Maguire), which looks like Oscar bait, and maybe the Road, although the year-long delay has me questioning whether that'll be another The Soloist.

Good list, though I think you should really have The Lovely Bones in your top 10, and I dont think moon has a chance at best pic and doubtful about julie and julia to, and lets not forget up is definately a populace choice. Peter Jackson probly doesnt have a blockbuster but his average ross this decade has been over 300 million a film, so lets wait and see

My predics for Best Picture:
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up In The Air
The Young Victoria

Sam Rockwell deserves an academy award nomination for his performance in Moon; it's that good. Nobody comes close in the 2009 best actor category. The man carried the film acting in multiple roles, each with their own characteristic nuance.

I have to say of all the Oscar lists I've seen (with the other categories as well) you seem to be the one that sees eye to eye with me. I have though that I disagree with Inglourious Basterds (which could maybe make the top 20) and Avatar (which I don't think will be considered much at all!)

My personal predictions look like this:

Invictus
Up in the Air
Precious
The Lovely Bones
An Education
A Serious Man
Nine
Up
The Hurt Locker
A Single Man or Bright Star

Here would be MY predictions for Best Picture:

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious
Julie and Julia
Up
Up In The Air
District 9
Invictus
Avatar

Julie and Julia has no chance! For a film that was so lukewarmly reviewed, there is no chance in God that it will even be considered

I think "District 9" has a good -better than 50% – shot at being nominated.
Certainly hopes so, as deserves to be.

I think Nine will become the front runner. Just a hunch.

I disagree slightly on the guaranteed nomination for Invictus. It's in a similar position to Nine, and it even released its trailer much later so I don't see how you could say Nine might not be that good because we haven't heard from it and then still say Invictus is a lock.

I am hopeful because I'm a huge Clint Eastwood fan, but I am not too optimistic. Did you see the trailer Brad, or are you basing it off of the reader's comments? Based on my viewing of the trailer, this could end up being a dud.

Glad to see Inglourious Basterds in there, that's probably my favorite movie of the year so far.

I'm still hopeful on Moon receiving a best picture nom, and definately Sam Rockwell, best performance I have seen this year.

I would pick the following:

Invictus
Up in the Air
Precious
Moon
Avatar
Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Nine
Up
Lovely Bones

I don't think that District 9 has a chance unless the Academy want to make up to fans over the whole Dark Knight saga last year.

Well, I certainly respectfully disagree (strongly) with the District 9 pushers (don't get me wrong, I liked it a lot).

I agree that Lovely Bones could be a wild card, and I agree with most of your top 5. The exception: I know you love An Education, and I had a ball too, but I really don't think the number 3 spot is appropriate. Obviously it's going in the top ten, so we'll never know, but for the sake of argument I really think it's in the bottom 5 (A+ for acting, but I think Ms. Scherfig had some issues, and Hornby's occasional caricatures of Rosamund Pike's character were excruciating)

Finally, Inglorious. Let me just say, I don't think it deserves that spot. With that said, it very well could get it, because of the nature of the 5 to 10 switch: the Academy did it to increase viewership, to include future 'Dark Knight', and I don't think much else on the list will do the trick, unless Avatar pulls it off. So I think voters might respect the reasons for the switch, and pull for a few fan favorites, knowing that they have no chance of winning anyways.

Nice conversation starter: do this more often! (And come on-please start a screenplay section in the contenders – or at least tell me "im not going to do it" or "ill do it eventually", or something)

I know I'm in the minority here but I really didn't like District 9. I just didn't bond with any of those characters and frankly I could've cared less about them. It has this wild out there story which even in science fiction I couldn't detach my disbelief from. I really didn't like how it went from this mockumentary to a shoot-em-up action flick by the third act all to try and apease the puebesent transformers crowd. Just a dissapointment. I think that Moon would be much more worthy of a nod from the sci-fi genre. I enjoyed the hell out of Star Trek, literally felt like I just went to another world, although it does have its flaws. Inglorious Basterds was probably the most enjoyable thing that I've seen Tarantino do in a long time but I'm not sure if it's best picture material, but it does succeed as being both a fantastical, over the top war westerner as well as a revenge tragedy and doesn't try to be anythingelse in between. Avatar looks like it has more promise now after the release of a second trailer but I'm still skeptical.

I have to say, I'm a little disappointed that The Road keeps falling on the list. I don't know about anyone else but I am really excited for it and it looks to me to be a contender for best picture, but maybe that's just my wishful thinking.

I pretty much agree with your list Brad. Right now, I think "UP" is a safe bet to get in. The Wall-E snub works in it's favor. Then again, it really won't surprise me if they pigeonhole it again in that prison known as Animated Feature. What could come to play is that the Voters will "wait" until Toy Story 3 next year to reward Pixar with a Best Picture nomination. But as of now, I think UP is in the 10 though.

My girlfriend and I were first in line to catch a glimpse of the King of Pop (may he rest in peace) in his new Documentary/Concert film. It was brilliant, heartwrenching, touching, fantastic, amazing and my feet couldn't stop tapping to the beat. This film will undoubtedly become the highest grossing concert film to date and if given a wider release (meaning longer than 2 weeks) it will probably beat out Farenheit 9/11 as the highest grossing documentary feature of all time.

But, alas, Best Picture this film is not. Also, given the rough/cut/unfinished nature of This Is It, I can't see what would convince the Academy to nominate this film for anything other than Best Documentary Feature and Best Original Song: "This Is It."

Other than the few technical issues and the aforementioned rough-cut/unfinished nature of the film, the main reason it won't score the Best Picture nod is quite simple: while audiences are given an indepth and quite spectacular look at the King of Pop hard at work, we are never treated to the actual concert…because it never took place. This film is one of the best DVD Extras I've ever seen…but it's not enough of a cinematic experience to be worthy of a nod for Best Picture.

At the end of the day, even with the expanded number of films to be nominated for Best Picture, I'm afraid Star Trek will be left out of the final cut. It was great, it tripped the light fantastic, it relaunched a beloved franchise and it somehow brought us Leonard Nimoy in pointy ears once more. I never had more fun at the box office this year: well, with the exception of Inglorious Basterds…oh and the Hangover….and Up…oh, and of course, This Is It.

Do you see my problem? There were too many good films this year and the year's not even up yet.

The Lovely Bones
Nine
Invictus
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
(500) Days of Summer
Up
Moon

Most likely

An Education
Bronson
The Damned United
Nine
Creation
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
In The Loop
Precious
Inglorious Basterds

Wild Cards

Invictus
The Hangover
Amelia
Michael Jackson's This Is It
Avatar
The Young Victoria
Notorious
Star Trek
Up
District Nine

@Kyle Milner: Unless they come out too late.

Brad, love your reflections and your lists.

I agree that Precious, Up in the Air and An Education are locked-in. I am not so sure regarding Invictus due to Clint's double snub last year. Nevertheless, it is a feel-good, Academy-friendly subject, so it should work. I would love to see The Hurt Locker, but down-beating subject, realism and political explosiveness could work against it.

I think Nine and The Lovely Bones cannot be so bad that they would not be considered. And I cannot believe that Rob Marshall and Peter Jackson messed it up.

Up? Don't think so. Would only work if it would have been outstanding enough to smash all "real" movies. But it wasn't. And it has its own category.

So, what else? I would love to see Inglourious Basterds, (500) Days of Summer, Moon and/or In the Loop. Possibly even Star Trek and Watchmen, which I regarded as highlights so far. But I would be surprised. Too innovative, too provocative, too challenging. I have no idea regarding Avatar, but honestly, does really anyone believe that the Academy honours technical developments (how overwhelming they could ever be)?

So I think that Bright Star, A Serious Man and possibly even Amelia and Public Enemies have better chances. So my final list:

Up in the Air
Precious
An Education
Invictus
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Bright Star
A Serious Man
The Hurt Locker
Public Enemies or Inglourious Basterds

I dont know who will make the list, but this is what I;d like to see :)

Invictus
Inglourious Basterds
The Road
An Education
Avatar
Lovely Bones
Away We Go
Up
District 9
Moon

The Hurt Locker
An Education
Precious
Up in the Air
Invictus
Nine
Bright Star…

I think there will be 3 slots left for those films who've managed to be both popular and critically acclaimed. It wouldn't make sense for the list to be expanded to 10 and we're left with 10 esoteric fare vying for the top prize. The expansion is not called "The Dark Knight/Wall-E rule" for nothing. The remaining 3 films I think will be..

UP (They may hold off for Toy Story 3, but they run the risk of it being akin to CARS and not up to par with Wall-E, Ratatouille, and UP. I think they'll finally reward Pixar with it's long deserved Best Picture nomination)
Inglorious Basterds (QT's best work since Pulp Fiction imho)
Avatar (Scope is epic and if Cameron delivers on the story, I think it gets in)

Invictus
The Hurt Locker
Moon
Precious
Nine
An Education
Up in the Air
The Lovely Bones
UP
Inglorious Basterds

Amelia is done, with the exception of a few tech awards I guess. And early word on The Road is not very promising.

You have a weird thing in your rankings. You said Up has no change in #7 and yet Nine is previously in #7.

Anyway, I couldn't agree more with your list. Maybe move The Lovely Bones up on the top 10 and remove Inglorious. Actually, I wish there will be one movie which will break unexpectedly on everybody's list. So far, reading teasers and watching trailers, I don't feel any story (aside from Avatar and Hurt Locker) that would wow me like Juno or Million Dollar Baby did. Is it just me or I think storylines are at the height of their cliche-ness?

Can't remember where I read this (Wells' blog maybe?), but Sony is contemplating a Best Picture push for District 9.

While your list is impressive, without adding More Than A Game, it seem incomplete. MTAG seems to cross into a new genre that is certainly more than a documentary.
The editing is amazing, the director was right on with the decision to go for an emotional film over just a sports film and people of all ages react to this film emotionally, on a very personal level, old, young, in between. How much better can that be? More Than A Game deserves to be on your list and that of the Academy.

I would really caution against calling INVICTUS a lock. Nobody has really seen it yet. At least your other four we know how much people love them. Remember what happened to FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS?

with 10 spots open it's probably silly to bet against Eastwood… but still…

Just stumbled on this site – and had a quick glance at some of the films that you believe will be up for the Best Film Oscars. Just a few comments :

- An Education. OK film – but nothing really special for awards, apart from the Best Actress category.

- UP – are Pixar films 'excluded' from critisism ?? Up was a terrible film – anyone who thinks that a fat kid, a talking dog, and a big bird make up a great story / film really needs to get viewing more films. UP in my opinion appears to be simply lazy writing, put together without any consideration.

- Avatar – it isnt even out yet. Are we 'predicting' it on the basis of the crap writing and overblown budgets from Cameron previously ?? Titanic – please someone re-evaluate this piece of crap. Its plainly terrible – supported only by a CGI ship. From what we've seen, I don't rate Avatar to be much more than a CGI 3D trip.

- The Hurt Locker – topical, tense, but Best Film ?

- Inglorious Basterds – good Tarantino – but great enough for a Best Film ? I see this film gaining writing and Acting (of course Best Sup Actor), but Tarantino needs a better film.

The other films have not been released in Australia – so its a tad difficult to comment.

The only last thing worth commenting upon is having Clint in the 'awards' circle again. It's becoming a tad too predictable, and some of this films are getting rewards for being just plain boring (see Million Dollar Baby)

It is very rare for a film that is limited released to be nominated. This decade, it has only happened once, and the film was "The Queen".
"The Hurt Locker", "Precious", "Bright Star", "A Serious Man" and "An Education" have a very slim chance of being nominated because they all are limited released.
Also how could "Up" be nominated if there is a different category for animated films?
The films that do have a chance are:

Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Inglourious Basterds
Avatar
Nine
Up in the Air

Those films have a fair chance because they are released everywhere.

sam rockwell should be nominated for moon and the film of the year i have seen.
viggo should get nominated for what he did in the road I sew the road at the bfi this year he was very good and he was be best person for the man, the movie should also gets some nomination.