Oscar Update: 'Precious' Backlash, 'An Education' Looms Large and New Predictions
A much bigger update than I anticipated
We shall begin with Amelia, a film I wrote about on Monday as it became the talk of the town with hardly a review in sight and a mere five days until its release. Well, that's all changed as I saw the film early Tuesday morning and it seems most everyone in Los Angeles and New York saw it for the first time as well. While I won't be joining David Poland on the train to completely disembowel Mira Nair's film of the famed aviatrix (and it seems Kris Tapley will also be doing the same), I will admit it's not a very good movie and would agree with Justin Chang's take at Variety when he says the film "offers snazzy aerial photography and inspirational platitudes in lieu of insight into Amelia Earhart's storied life and high-flying career."
What does this mean for the Best Actress race? Well, I have had Hilary Swank's stock dropping over the past few weeks and she has slipped yet again, right out of the top five. Yup, I think critical disdain is going to ground this bird as technical awards may be all this one is looking at in terms of Oscar love.
It's not like we are really talking about much competition when it comes to the Best Actress category at this point as it appears Carey Mulligan's performance in An Education is damn near already the decided winner. I guess a late push from Abbie Cornish (Bright Star) could cause a stir, but it would only be as a result of pundits trying to drum up conversation. However, there is one contender I feel is being overlooked and is actually more deserving of the award than Mulligan, despite my own praise for her performance. I am talking of Gabourey Sidibe in Precious, a film that has become the water-cooler topic on the web in the past 48 hours following its snubbing by the Independent Filmmaker Project (IFP) when announcing the 19th Annual Gotham Independent Film Award nominees this past Monday.
Tom O'Neil at Gold Derby was the first to address the absence of Precious from such eligible categories as best picture, breakthrough director (Lee Daniels) and breakthrough performer (Sidibe and/or Mo'Nique). As a result, it got people talking.
Yesterday, Lou Lumenick at the New York Post responded to O'Neil's mention speculating "the film could suffer a backlash because of its high-profile endorsement by Oprah Winfrey and Tyler Perry." The logic behind his opinion on the matter isn't all that far-fetched, but the idea the film is now too "mainstream" thanks to endorsements from Winfrey and Perry is so petty, should that end up the result it's a sad, sad day in the industry. However, I think we are dealing with something much worse.
Yes, I think there are people carrying torches and pitchforks when it comes to Precious, but the Winfrey and Perry connection is of little concern. Their involvement is going to benefit the film's box-office but it won't move the Oscar dial one bit. Instead, I think the film will be overlooked based on the fact it is a black film, set in Harlem and dealing with some tough, tough issues. To top it off it features two outstanding performances from black actresses that don't fit the Halle Berry mold.
There's no Frieda Pinto to parade on stage, no catchy tunes provided by M.I.A. (although it does have Mary J. Blige's song "Destiny") or dance numbers ushering you out of the cinema. This is a film grounded in humanity and while delving deep into a depressing tale, comes out with complete and utter hope. It won the audience awards at the Sundance and Toronto International film festivals, but will it manage to sway the Academy? I worry it won't be able to, but we are still early in the game and it's one of those times I pray I am wrong as I would certainly award Sidibe the Best Actress Oscar right now. And while I have not yet seen Nine or Up In the Air, and can't speak to those two films, they offer the only competition I could potentially see for Mo'Nique when it comes to Best Supporting Actress, but that idea has also already come under fire. Yeah, there's a faction against Precious, but I think it's time to look deeper than just its executive producers.
O'Neil asked for Oscar bloggers to send him their opinions on the issue late yesterday and as I started to type up my reply to be included in his piece, it became the commentary you see above and I decided to save it for my own post. Too bad, not one of the seven folks that replied brought up my observations. However, Scott Feinberg from And the Winner Is …, who replied to O'Neil, didn't include his entire thoughts on the matter, which he saved for his own post. Here's the most important part:
I can tell you this much: if [Precious] and/or director Lee Daniels and/or lead actress Gabby Sidibe and/or supporting actress Mo’Nique (whose character will pose the chief problem for many of the aforementioned voters) are snubbed by the Academy — which is honestly not inconceivable to me — there will be an uproar that could make past Oscar controversies — think The Color Purple (1985, lost all 11 nominations it received, including one for Oprah), Do the Right Thing (1989, no best picture nod), Brokeback Mountain (2005, lost to heavy underdog Crash), and Dreamgirls (2006, not nominated for best picture or best actress) — pale in comparison.
Amen Scott, but it's going to take more than just nominations to make me happy, especially if the crop of Oscar relevant films doesn't improve over the course of the next two months.
If you are interested in more on Precious you can check out the RopeofSilicon page right here or set aside some time for Lynn Hirschberg's massive profile on director Lee Daniels at the New York Times.
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