If anyone gets snuffed out of the supporting actor race I think it will end up being Damon. From what I'm hearing and reading he really doesn't get as much do with the part as other roles he's had and it is more Madella's story. Hopefully Plummer or Mckay could sneak there way in.

I was just reading on another site about Nine, and apparently there is a slight bit of doubt about Day-Lewis if you can believe it. Not to the quality of his performance, but more of the choices he makes with his part are not what one would expect for his character. While I love D-Day as much as anyone else, it's also good to see some new-blood once in a while and Renner seems worthy of it to me.

Speaking of Hurt Locker, I don't believe the academy has given the best directors prize to a woman, and Bigelow seems like a lock for the nomination for tackling what isn't exactly the easiest subject. Prehaps history could be made.

Good to hear your updates. I'm a little surprised with your comments about Kendrick's crying scene as I hadn't read about that previously. I do agree that it is quite annoying to have to keep doing predictions without having seen a lot of the films.

George Clooney didn't just play himself in Syriana. Far from it! And he would certainly not have won an oscar if that was the case.
And I also disagree with you when you state that he is just playing himself in Up in the air. Yes, his character in the film has similarities with his life, as far as we can assume but his performance in it was a lot of more than "just him playing himself". And he was definitely great in it.
But I agree with you about Anna kendrick's crying scene. She was great in the film but not there.

I don't have much to say, but I got an advanced screening to Up in The Air. WOOOHOOO. So I'll be seeing it on Wednesday.

@billyb: Don't get me wrong, I like George Clooney and what he brings to a film, but I don't necessarily see a different person each time around. I either see serious Clooney or madcap Clooney. I like it, but it just doesn't move my dial in terms of Oscar consideration.

This is what a dread every year. People second guessing. Who will win? Even before seeing the movie? Depending mainly on past glories. How serious can this silliness get? The only positive thing stemming for all this wordplay is that unknowns get noticed. But you´re talking top-5 only. Why not blasting about promising unknowns all over creation? That would be something worthwhile. A website like this should find newcomers. Along with patting on older shoulders. It´s about finding new life, new talent. Expanding the universe.

I'm seeing Up in the Air Tuesday night. It looks fantastic!

You're bumping Renner? Really? With enough buzz, he'll likely be nominated, and may even win.

Win for Renner? I barely think he deserves a nomination…

@Brad Brevet:

I agree with your assessment of Clooney, I think he is good at what he does, but I don't see much range. Same with Amy Adams, although I did see a glimmer of range in Sunshine Cleaning.

Well, tons of people totally disagree with your statement about George Clooney. Or else, you can tell the same thing about almost all stars who they are so famous that it is difficult not to see them before their character. I wonder if he is not that great as an actor as you believe why so many directors, actors, producters want to work with him and praise him every time they can ?!? I wonder why he has already won one Oscar, was nominated for another and how everyone can believe that he will have another one this year…
Sorry but he is not either "serious Clooney" or "madcap Clooney" on all his films. Check ER, Solaris, Up in the air, Syriana, Out of sight, Michael Clayton, three kings, O brother where are though?, The men who stare at goats amongst others films and you would see different person every time. Because those character have nothing in common except the fact the same man played them. And I wonder how much deranged you believe he is if you wonder he is himself when he plays a depressive psychiatrist, a suave gangster, a deserted spy, a pediatrician who grew up along the five years and more we saw him and so on…

billyb I can't speak for Brad, my issue with him is that he play's his characters the same way mannerisms etc. That doesn't mean he's a horrible actor or he isn't great. He just isn't very versatile. The same with Denzel Washington ( who has won two Oscars btw). He plays his characters for the most part the same way.

What about Maggie Gyllenhaal? And don't you think it's time for both 'Up in the Air' actresses to be in your top 5?

Three of the top five actors you have not seen? Does that mean weak field maybe?

Oscar Mulligan (best actress), Molina (supporting actor) and Emma Thompson nomination supporting actress.