I like that you are willing to take a few chances (Rosemarie Dewitt over Kate Winslet in Supporting Actress would be a big stretch).

I still am hoping that won't be the Best Picture short list…I think Doubt will squeeze in past Frost/Nixon. I'm also reserving hope that Benjamin Button will get the boot…seems unlikely we'd see TDK and Ben Button nominated, they're just too similar visually.

how is the dark knight not in best adapted screenplay
it was beautifully written strong and powerful.
i know this is not your opinion but your predcting what the academy would.
i hope they recogznie jonathan and christopher nolan's work

the dark knight all the way.

My money is on Slumdog winning best picture. I kind of hope it does, knowing that TDK doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell to actually win the award (though it will definitely be nominated).

Brad, when are you going to post your top 10 list? I'm curious as to what you thought was the year's best movie.

Something in my gut tells me that Ron Howard has too much support behind him to get a snub at this point. I guess we'll find out when the DGA nominations are announced.

I wouldn't count out Melissa Leo. She has a couple of precursor wins. She could land the 5th spot. I'm hoping because Frozen River is a good movie and she was great in it.
I also know the Academy is fond of Clint Eastwood so don't be surprised if he gets a nod. I think Robert Downey Jr. is in just because he had such a good year instead of brand newcomer Dev Petal.

I'll be seeing Benjamin Button tommorrow yeah ( plus I got free tickets)

Off Oscars, Doesn't it seem that next year there is an onslaught of Horror films? I know a lot of them will be shitty and a lot will be remakes, but I'm definitely looking forward to a few of them

The Box, Friday the 13th, The Wolfman, Drag Me To Hell, Jennifer's Body and The Orphan

@Ethan: You know Ethan, I came dangerously close to moving Slumdog into the #1 slot this time, but Button just seems like more of an Academy movie and I can't help but believe Slumdog will follow in the footsteps of Juno and Little Miss Sunshine. Tough call though.

As for my Top Ten, it will be out on Monday and I have a few other things for Monday and Tuesday that will hopefully get a bunch of you also adding your favorites to the comments.

@Garrett: Ron Howard is always a strange one to pick for me and it starts and stops with Cinderella Man, a film I LOVED but it got ignored for all major awards from Oscar. And it is certainly better than Frost/Nixon in my opinion.

@Kurt: And you have just revealed the consistent dilemma I am running against in those categories. :)

@beautifulm: Can't wait to hear what you think of Button. It's obviously being looked at in a myriad of different ways. Oh, and I will have a proper 2009 preview coming as well.

Watched Slumdog Millionaire today. Danny Boyle just gets better and better. I enjoyed it very much! I can't wait to watch Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Wrestler.

the wrestler all the way–i mean this for every category. it's the most solid movie of the year.

i'm surprised you have Marisa Tomei in the number 4 spot. i think she, amy adams, and elsa zylberstein are all fighting for that spot. if anything, rosemarie dewitt over marisa tomei.

also, i think this might be a silent year for cate blanchett. she was good in Button but it is really fueled by pitt and this man's journey. I'm really really hoping Michelle Williams sneaks into the top 5; she was flat out genius in Wendy and Lucy.

@PJ: I have Tomei there simply due to the mentions she has received lately from critic groups and so forth. I personally think Elsa was one of the best and would also move Winslet in.

I'm iffy about this year's Best Picture nominations. I think Brad has it as close as it will probably get, but this year there are so many possible contenders, who knows!
Benjamin Button didn't do as well with critics as some hopes (a 69 on metacritic), while films like Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, WALL-e, and The Wrestler all scoring 80 or above. I think that either TDK or Walle will be nominated, i doubt both will get it at the same time. I think Slumdog Millionaire is the only sure fire nod this year, with all of the above all hoping for the remaining 4 slots. I would say that the big upset will be The Wrestler getting a best picture nod along with The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, and Slumdog Millionaire…i cant decide whether Ben Button or Milk will take the slot, but if theres any place for surprises, its the Oscars!!!

There are still a lot of films that I haven't seen yet. I haven't even seen my Kate yet :-( So my thoughts on the race are purely based on awards traction, reviews and personal bias for my faves, Kate, Taraji, Leonardo etc.

The only ones (Oscar Contenders) I have seen so far are Dark Knight, Milk, and Slumdog. I liked all three. I think Slumdog is going to win, but I think Milk was the better film.

At this point I'd make Wall*E six. Although to be technical, I'd put Wall*E/The Dark Knight for both five and six, the way it's looking. If only Froxt/Nixon would get bumped off so both could get in. Wishful thinking, but still.

I agree with Dav Petal getting in ahead of Downey Jr. I could see both of them possibly getting in, but then who'd get the snub? If anyone, I'd say Shannon (although I agree with him as the #2), due to the lack of respect RR's been getting at award shows and critics lists, despite the knockout one for the Golden Globes.

My predictions:
BEST FILM:GRAN TORINO.CLINT EASTWOOD.
BEST DIRECTOR:CLINT EASTWOOD.GRAN TORINO.
BEST ACTOR:CLINT EASTWOOD.GRAN TORINO:

Brad Brevet, you are INSANE if you think that Michelle Williams and Cate Blanchett have a better shot than Jolie. I seriously doubt Blanchett is nominated again for a 4 year in a row…no matter how good she was in BB.

I'm glad you mentioned Little Miss Sunshine and Juno. Both were fan-favorites, quirky and 'hip' movies. Most people couldn't help loving them and going into the 'rooting for the underdog' type thing. For once, the Academy's snobbery and conservatism paid off and neither took home the big award (No Country and the Departed are FAR better movies). But, I have a feeling the Academy may want to kind of 'shake things up' (in the most conventional way possible, of course) and give Slumdog the win. In 2008, classic oscar movies (Revolutionary Road) seemed to be disappointments, while less traditional movies transcended genre (Wall-e, The Dark Knight, Slumdog) and expectations. With several indie movies being nominated in a row for several years, I feel that the Academy will finally want to give one the win.

For some reason, though, I can't help but believe that Benjamin Button is too odd and 'fantastic' for the Oscars. Not to mention experimental. And when was the last time the Academy gave something like that the win? It's certainly not a traditional choice. It also helps that Slumdog is- with the arguable exception of TDK- the most critically acclaimed movie of the bunch.

(From Rotten tomatoes)

Milk- 93%, 8.1 average rating
Benjamin Button- 73%, 7.3 average rating
Slumdog- 94%, 8.2 average rating
Frost/Nixon- 90%, 7.6/10 average rating
TDK- 94%, 8.5/10 average rating

Benjamin is actually the least acclaimed of the bunch. It also has a lower rating than Fincher's Fight Club, Se7en, and Zodiac (all incredibly good flicks snubbed by the oscars).

With all that in mind, it's impossible to write off Milk's chances. The Brokeback/Crash scandal is arguably one of the most controversial in recent Academy history, and the Academy may want to give Milk the win in order to compensate for that. Plus, it'll be 'disproving' the allegations of homophobia.

Here is what I personally think are the chances for these films to win:

1. Slumdog
2. Milk
3. Frost/Nixon
4. Benjamin Button
5. TDK

It's unlikely that either The Dark Knight or Wall-E will be nominated. The Titanic/LOTR argument about the Academy warming up to blockbusters is misleading — Titanic was a historical epic based on real events; it was a period piece. LOTR was a literary adaption of a set of well-respected novels. The Dark Knight at its core is still a superhero movie, and it's poor showing at both the Globes and SAG are sign that those-who-get-to-decide see it as such.

Wall-E has a different problem — the Animated Feature category. It's hard to see them nominating it in both, and it's unimaginable that they'd not nominate it as the Best Animated Film of the year.

Milk and Frost/Nixon benefit from today's political climate. Even though both are set in the '70s, both are almost even more relevant for today. The fights over Bush's record and over Prop 8 can only help them.

Benjamin Button is the kind of movie Oscar loves — period romance with a positive life message. It's almost Forrest Gump-y with all the nuggets of wisdom, only not nearly as irritating (no endless running). Slumdog Millionaire is the little film that could that has been a big hit with Oscar voters over the last few years.

I think the fifth slot goes to either Revolutionary Road or Doubt. Both are hard films to like, but if anyone can, Oscar will. My guess? One of these two gets slot number 5 — while Christopher Nolan gets a director nod without Best Picture and one of these two goes without the Director. Also, RR needs Leo. If Leo is snubbed, so is the movie. Kate can get it either way, I think.

@Ethan: Don't forget WALL-E: 96%, 8.5/10 average rating. It looks like the best reviewed movie of the year, as was Ratatouille last year. I'm just hoping everyone remembers how much love they had for the movie six months ago.

I highly doubt that the Dark Knight will get a best picture nomination. Revolutionary Road will take the last spot, for sure. And Wall-E will get a best ANIMATED picture nomination. It's an ANIMATED film.

And Kate Winslet will most definitely get a double nomination. Hopefully she takes supporting and Meryl takes Best Actress – her performance in Doubt is extraordinary.

Is it at all possible that In Bruges will get a Best Original Screenplay nomination? I would love nothing more. I hope it has the Usual Suspects affect (gets a screenplay and actor nod, wins both)…seems highly unlikely at this point though.

Out of interest why is Dev Patel getting buzz for supporting? I watched that film today and he is great in it but is the MAIN actor in that film not supporting in the sense of the other 9 possibles you have.

I appreciate your observations. As I am always interested in the film scores, I'd be curious to know what your predictions in that category might be. Any ideas? How about original tunes?

@ aerinpegadrak- I just don't think Wall-e will get nominated for best picture, because of its nature as an animated/family movie. It's not necessarily undeserving (though I think it was a tad bit overrated. It didn't hold up very well on a second viewing), I just don't think that the Academy will have the guts necessary to nominate an animated flick.

TDK will be nominated. It has a lot going for it, after all. It has a huge fanbase, made a ton of money (=ratings! The Academy wants nothing more), transcends above the 'comic book' archtype, and manages to be a thrilling and thought-provoking crime drama. In fact, it's rather similar in certain ways to both No Country and the Departed.

@Scott: Like you, I enjoyed In Bruges (a little less the third time), and would like to say "yes, it has a chance" but I just don't think so. However, probably a better chance than Nieporte's Seven Pounds… I will have to change that next round.

@ShotoJamf: No predictions on songs (sorry)… as for scores I would like to think Dark Knight, Duchess and Defiance would be in there along with Button. I also thought WALL-E had a great score, but it is hard to listen to outside of the film which may hurt it (i am not sure how scores are pitched to the academy). Last year I was moved by so many scores whereas this year was rather blah – in my opinion – outside of the first three I mentioned.

Slumdog's musical score has gotten some praise though, along with the rest of the film. I can see it winning that category, being part of the usual award piling that every Oscar favorite/winner gets.

I highly doubt Revolutionary Road will get Best Picture now. Even it's all around reviews are luke warm.

hey brad, two quick question…what do u think about Pineapple Express getting a Best Sone nomination for the song Huey Lewis and the News did for the film, i know the boss and the song from Walle are a shoo in but do u think it has a chance? and why do u think Dev Patel has the edge over Robert Downey Jr? you may have already answered this…but im curious to know!

@William: The one thing I wonder about Slumdog's "score" is if it is really a score as much as it is a collection of songs.

@joker47: I just think the Academy is more likely to award Patel because Downey's role is a comedy and the Academy rarely awards comedy. I don't see a lot of chance for the Pineapple Express song and it seems more and more likely Springsteen has the category wrapped up.

Wall-E deserves a best picture nomination. I've seen it multiple times and it holds up extremely well.

TDK is shorthand for overrated. Yes, it's good, but c'mon people, it's not all that

Wall-E should sweep the score and sound awards if there's any justice. With utmost respect to all other contenders there, In no other film did those take on a heavier burden than in that film. However, those along with the animated oscar will not be enough to make up for an omission as a best picture nominee

I saw Frost/Nixon, save for a couple of very good acting performances, It is not best picture material in my view. Wall-E and The Dark Knight should get into big race with Slumdog, Milk, and Button.

Wall-e will be no.1 in my nominating ballot

I think Frost/Nixon will pull off a "dreamgirls" and be left out of the best picture category. There's plenty of passionate support for both Wall-E and TDK and I would love nothing more than seeing them both get nominated for the big one.

I just came home from seeing Benjamin Button. The movie is great. Cate is great. Pitt is good, but Taraji Henson was AWESOME. She needs to be nominated and to win in the OSCARS! Go Taraji!!

MILK will & should dominate the 81st Academy Awards and Sean Penn is the front-runner for BEST ACTOR.

@anonymous: I will eat my hat and shave my head if Wall-E gets a Best Film nomination. I'm not sure if it's even eligible now that there's a Best Animated Film category. I'm not saying it's a bad film, but it will not – and should not – be nominated in the Best Picture category.

i just saw Button and thought it was astounding. I believe it should be nominated for best picture along with TDK, the wrestler, slumdog millionaire, and frost/nixon.

@cmac:

Thank you, whole-heartedly. I just saw the film, and was certainly entertained and mesmerized by the visuals, but ultimately disappointed given the tremendous hype it has received (and comments such as the ones here that it deserves a Best Pic nomination in an incredibly strong year). I didn't think it held a candle to "Finding Nemo," and don't see how it has any shot with the Best Animated Feature category. Entertaining, but far from groundbreaking.

I still have a handful of the movies to see, but Milk and Changeling (yes, I stand by this) are my favorites so far. TDK was great, and I would enjoy seeing it nominated, but not win. Slumdog Millionaire was great, but overrated I felt. Certainly worthy of a nomination, but I'll be disappointed if it takes the top prize. My list so far of the movies I have seen (I'm seeing Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, and The Reader this week, so it's a rather trivial list…)
1. Milk
2. Changeling
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. Rachel Getting Married
5. The Dark Knight
6. Australia
7. Wall-E

TDK and Wall-E will not be nominated for the best picture, I bet my left kidney on that. I think the top 4 will be: Milk, Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Revolutionary Road. I'm not sure about the 5th, maybe Frost/Nixon, or The Wrestler. And in my opinion Milk or Slumdog will be the winner.

And I don't think Heath Ledger will win best supporting role, altough a nomination is possible. My secret bet for that is Michael Shannon, who I think was really good in the Revolutionary Road, definietly Oscar material.

This is pretty much an extremely similar list as to the one I came up with, but I still desperately wish they would throw more nominations at The Wrestler, or at least at Aronofsky–they don't have to win, but I really think he's been so snubbed (and Clint Mansell for his scores–seriously, has there been a more influential/re-used song in the past ten years than "Lux Aeterna"?), mainly for Requiem for a Dream, that I wish they would at least just give him some credit, even if his style is generally more hardcore than the Oscars like.

Oh, and Benjamin Button, in my opinion, is not too fantastic for the Oscars–outside of the concept, it really wasn't any different from a normal human drama. And my beef with it getting lots of nominations outside of the technical aspects, is the fact that Eric Roth was lazy/narcissistic and the entire first half of Button was just Forrest Gump 2–the leg disability, the childhood sweetheart who grows apart in a Roaring 20s style lifestyle, the best friend Captain and life at sea…and the fact that Benjamin even seemed slightly mentally handicapped at ages he shouldn't have been. I realize they need a mainstream Oscar film–which is where Frost/Nixon also comes in–but the film just didn't do enough for me until it settled down and focused on the relationship aspect in the second half.

I know F/N will definitely get a BP nom, since it's well-made but also enough of a mainstream film that the lower-intelligence crowd will also look at is one of the best films they've seen in a long time (not meant as an offensive comment).

At least the Oscars aren't suffering from the over-predictability of last year.

I would really be astonished if The Dark Knight didn't get nominated. I'm not even expecting it to win, but it would be shocking for it not to be nominated. The fact that it's made over $530 million during an economic recession and is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, and certainly most talked about, is surely worthy of an Oscar nomination. And of course the obvious stuff such as boosting the ratings with viewers.

Anyways, as long as TDK and Milk are nominated, I am fine. I'd personally love to see Milk get the win for Best Picture, and it wouldn't bother me much if Benjamin Button wasn't nominated. If it didn't get nominated, I would assume it would be replaced with The Wrestler. I honestly get the vibe that The Wrestler is the 2008 version of Rocky.

@Chris: That's asinine. Blockbusters rarely get nominated, "films" do. No matter how good the blockbuster is. TDK was an above par blockbuster, but it gets blown out of the water by too many films this year. Wall E is a shoo in for Best Animated Feature Film and will win in that category. TDK will struggle to even get nominated.

Actually…The Wrestler is the highest rated movie on Rottentomatoes at 98%. Why is everybody overlooking this movie for Best Picture? With a such an incredible performance by Rourke and unquestionably the best movie of the year, I think it should get that 5th spot.

@cameron: Isn't Wall-e a blockbuster? Cost just as much The Dark Knight did to make. Not many blockbusters get nominated because a lot of them are disappointing. Titanic, Star Wars, E.T., The Sixth Sense, Ghost, Braveheart, Gladiator, and all three Lord of the Rings movies were all nominated (some even won) Best Picture, and they were major blockbusters. I realize The Dark Knight isn't a perfect film by any means, but neither are all of the movies I just mentioned, especially Ghost. If Ghost can get nominated, I see no reason why The Dark Knight can't.

The Academy will also probably think of ratings and how much they need them. It's true, they do. Last year they nominated just "films" and it had the lowest ratings in the history of the show. They need a blockbuster like The Dark Knight.

I am shocked that noone is commenting on how AMAZING Doubt was. I have seen it twice in two days, and still want to see it. Doubt should easily get a nomination for Best Picture, especially over Button, Wall*E, TDK, and Frost/Nixon. Stree deserves the best actress award, and it will be a crime to not give Viola Davis the best supporting actress award. Doubt is easily just as good as Milk and Slumdog IMHO. I have seen Milk, Slumdog, Button, Frost/Nixon, Wall*E, and TDK, still need to see The Wrestler and Revolutionary Road. But truthfully, I don't think either of the films will changem opinion on Doubt. I am hoping to see that baby take home the whole dang thing!

My nominations are:

Best Motion Picture:
- Revolutionary Road
- The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
- Frost/Nixon
- Slumdog Millionaire
- Wall·e

Best Director:
- Sam Mendes
- David Fincher
- Ron Howard
- Danny Boyle
- Stephen Daldry

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
- Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
- Meryl Streep – Doubt
- Frances McDormand – Burn After Reading
- Meryl Streep – Mamma Mia!
- Angelina Jolie – Changeling

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
- Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
- Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
- Sean Penn – Milk
- Brad Pitt – The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

You know its funny. Everyone cares about who wins the Oscars, because of its history and clout. But honestly its the most insanely flawed award system in the world.

I mean how many films has Brad Pitt privately financed as an associate producer? Same with Ron Howard… How many people owe them a "vote"? Not hating, just stating.

I mean compare Brad Pitt in Benjamin Button to at least 15 OTHER performances this year world wide and its a joke. Literally a joke. He did his same ol' Brad Pitt shit.

The Oscars don't count foreign films? HOW FUCKING INSANE IS THIS? People where posting Rotten Tomatoes scores…

Lets look at those scores "counting" all the films that came out last year, not just films that fit the safe criteria of ABC, Disney and Southern Californian movie mafia as a whole. (I tried to include films that have been at least reviewed 75 times or more by credible outlets, not like Mike's Film Forum .com or something.

1. The Wrestler 98% (106 reviews)
2. 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days 97% (123 Reviews)*
3. Let The Right One In 97% (95 Reviews)*
4. WALL-E 965 (216 Reviews)
5. My Winnipeg 96% (73 Reviews)*
6. The Dark Knight 94% (262 Reviews)
7. Slumdog Millionaire 94% (159 Reviews)
8. Happy Go-Lucky 94% (123 Reviews)
9. The Counterfitters 94% (119 Reviews)*
10. Alexandra 94% (48 Reviews, I had to include because its genius)*
11. Iron Man 93% (221 Reviews)
12. Milk 93% (161 Reviews)
13. Tell No One 93% (96 Reviews)*

Ok, so… looking at the films above I put asterisks next to so called "foreign films", including Guy Maddin's, because its Canadian not good ol' US of A.

So honestly, none of the so called "predictions for oscar noms" are really even worth discussing. Its like calling a sports team that wins a playoff in the United States restricted to United States teams, "World Champions"… ooopps… we already do that. Man imagine a concept like something called the "World Cup".

I have seen every film above and I can attest that Iron Man and Dark knight are the same thing, side walks explode, there is a villian, a girl, a hero, a climax, a point of attack and an ending. Its a flocking comic book for Christ sakes. We really are celebrating the talent of the people who don't get celebrated during the Oscars. The SFX guys, the color correctors, the editing(!), the guys who get the still frame before a Kraft cheese commercial. Yeah thats what made the Dark Knight so great, not a sober Christian Bale and an unsober Heath. Also, the Nolan's didn't exactly wake up Shakespeare when they adapted the "thought" of Batman. Seriously, is this really the greatest cinematic presentations of the year? Not best. Greatest.

In my opinon, The Wrestler is the best Amercian film, or Che, but the rules are so flocking stupid, whats what, Che had an American director and Hispanic production team(?). Also, ask some directors about the Foreign vs. Best Picture category snubs/rules/results and you may get punched in the mouth.

Mickey Rourke preformed greatly, however he is Bam Robinson in real life, so he doesn't preform the best as an actor. Sean Penn however…does. In my honest opinon, I am watching Revo Road tonight, but Sean Penn is the new Paul Newman. He is the best living actor on the planet today. If you don't believe me, compare the last 5 characters hes played to each other. He morphs body type, accents, facial expressions, mannerisms, etc. etc. WHILE NONE OF IT IS ACTUALLY HOW HE IS.

As for the rest of the awards, whatever. Tell No One is an amazing screenplay, along with In Bruges, 4 Months is superb, The Wrestler, again is truly great piece of cinema, Milk is great and I am not even into gay rights, Slumdo is a great "movie" again not a piece of cinema, The Counterfitters is an amazing adaptation of a story and a great slice of the holocaust that no-one has ever touched on before, Frost/Nixon is fucking shit movie, totally overrated, Langella ia blowhard in real life, so ta-dah! He is NIxon, no acting needed, Let The Right One In is absolutely brilliant, no SFX either and it makes Twilight look like a silly American movie for silly American teenagers,, Wall-E is grossly overrated, I absolutely loved it, but its A PIXAR MOVIE, I GET IT, 3D characters that are fun and easy to get along with, someone wrote Finding Nemo was better, I agree completely, same story too.

Its a wash man, total rubbish. Its like, all the fuss and hoopla around the "Oscars" kinda eliminates all the story's and emotions the films in the Oscars talk about? You know?

I'm routing for Penn and The Wrestler, will watch Revo Road tonight along with some other screeners I have.

Also, Hugh Jackman is hosting the Oscars. Based on that fact the winners will probably be: TDK, Pitt, Jolie (YES JOLIE AND PITT BOTH WIN! ABC RATINGS GO THROUGH THE ROOF!), Danny Boyle (who actually didn't direct as much as people think, research Slumdog a bit and you will see), and toss some other stuff around.

But yeah, think about it, Hugh Jackman, pretending not to be gay for three hours and then giving out awards to people showcasing a huge movement in gay civil rights?

Ironic? NO. Just teh Oscars thats all…

p.s.
My fav thank you ever, Charlize Theron thanked her lawyer. Priceless.

I like some of these nomination but everyone seems to forget and is a must to add to all your oscor nom. is "Che" Already a nomination for steven sodenberg at canne and Benicio Del Toro won the palm, for is role as Che, so I can preatty much garante you a nom for best picture, best director and probably a win for Benicio Del Torro as best Actor!!!!