In Bruges should be at least in contention for the best original screenplay nod.

Where's the cinematography predictions?

I don't do the technical categories. Screenplay is as far as I take it. Keeping a top ten for these eight is more than enough for me.

I'm sad to see Elsa Zylberstein drop down. Her performance was a masterpiece.

I hope that Revolutionary Road wins Best Picture; however, I believe the award will go to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Here's my predictions:

1. Picture: Benjamin Button
2. Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
3. Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
4. Actress: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
5. Supp. Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
6. Supp. Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
7. Original Screenplay: The Wrestler
8. Adapted Screenplay: Benjamin Button
9. Animated Film: Wall-E
10. Foreign Language: Waltz with Bashir
11. Makeup: Benjamin Button
12. Cinematography: Benjamin Button
13. Visual Effects: The Dark Knight
14. Sound Effects: The Dark Knight
15. Sound Effects Editing: The Dark Knight
16. Costume Design: The Duchess
17. Score: Slumdog Millionaire
18. Song: Bruce Springsteen, The Wrestler

I'm crossing my fingers that Leonardo DiCaprio gets nominated next Thursday. He gives one of the best performances of the year, and it would be a shame to nominate Winslet and snub DiCaprio. The duo deserve their nominations.

@Garrett: I actually think DiCaprio deserves it more than Winslet and it was hard not to include him in the prediction. It was also a toss up between Boyle and Fincher at the Director slot… Slumdog and Button couldn't be any further apart on the spectrum, which makes predicting a difficult task.

I feel it might come down to Milk and Slumdog, I think both movies are better than Benjamin Button. I have yet to see about 3 of the top ten. I think Sean Penn might end up winning; he has such a phenomenal performance as Harvey Milk, but also Mickey Rourke gives it his all. It will be hard to predict who really will win that oscar. I'm suprised that Milk kept out of the globes this year, Benjamin Button is good but I feel certain bits and pieces really drag the movie down like the whole Katrina thing plus Brad Pitt's highly overrated acting.

As I've seen for the last year, the Academy tends to "repair" its mistakes by giving the Oscars to actors/resses who deserved it in past times but weren't awarded, usually for films that aren't as good as the original ones. That happened when they awarded Dame Judi Dench's 8-minute-role as Queen Elizabeth in "Shakespeare in love", when she should have won a year before for "Mrs.Brown" (or that was what everybody said), or when they gave it to Nicole Kidman for "The Hours", just one year after she was supposed to win for "Moulin Rouge", but the award went to Halle Berry. This leads me to think that, being so ignored by the Academy as she has been in 5 times, this is Kate Winslet's year. Probably she won't repeat last night's gesture (though I'd like it), but she is definitely to win in one of the categories she is running in.

@Wurtzel: I agree, although I'd love to see Kate Winslet nab Best Actress. I can see her winning too as the critics appear to be having a hard time seperating out a clear winner this year and The Academy can't allow a situation to go on whereby the lesser talents of Julia Roberts, Gwyneth Paltrow and Halle Berry have all won and KW hasn't. That said, am I the only person to feel a bit sorry for Anne Hathaway after the GG website debacle?

I saw Slumdog at the weekend and it's good, but not as much as I truly loved In Bruges and TDK. OK, so I also enjoyed Tropic Thunder and Mamma Mia more, but then I do have very dubious taste…

I've always been amazed that you put Kate Winslet so low for the Reader, and I'm confident she will win. I agree with you that she won't for actress, though.

Now… curious case. Even if today's editors guild nominations nominate curious case, I'm confident the oscars won't. The editing was mediocre. And the chances are less than 10% for a film not nominated for editing to win best picture. Oh, and here are technicals. (I'm not a fan of the movie The Reader, I just call each category like I see 'em)

Cinematography
The Reader
Boy A
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Tropic Thunder
Burn After Reading
Slumdog Millionaire

Editing
The Reader
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder
Slumdog Millionaire
Body of Lies
Revolutionary Road
The Duchess
Burn After Reading

(Boy A is a british film that won a BAFTA for best actor and a TV BAFTA for best cinematography, and although I think it tragically won't be noticed for best actor, I think the (academy) cinematographers will notice it)

THRILLED to see you moved Jolie DOWN

Dumb question without seeing the movie. who is the "Lead" Actor in Slumdog Millionaire?

Hey Brad, I doubt Michael Shannon will get the nod…His performance was good, but I think Robert Downey Jr. will pull it off. Shannon has not gotten any Award season nods, while Downey Jr. has gotten Globes, SAG, and Critic's Choice nominations. Shannon did have a good film, but I belive Downey Jr. should be moved up to the 5th spot. We all know Ledger will win, but Downey will at least get a nod.
I also do not think Brad Pitt will get the nod. I think that Richard Jenkins will pull the Tommy Lee Jones of last year. A seasoned actor getting a much deserved nod out of the blue. I think Jenkins was a lot better than Pitt role wise, and the Academy might be turned away about the CGI on Pitt. My call is Downey Jr and Jenkins will prevail over Shannon and Pitt, and good call with Eastwood in the Best Actor catagory!

@joker47: You know, I can't say you are wrong on any of your opinions here, but it just seems impossible to me that Shannon won't get nominated. I left him where he was for this edition and he will probably move down a little in my predictions and likely end up around #5 before the big day, but I don't think I can move him all the way out just yet.

As for Pitt vs. Jenkins (and I think DiCaprio) it is such a tough call for me. Your Jones comparison is a good one though.

@Wurtzel: Very good opinion of the Academy making up for past mistakes, but Winslet is still so young not sure they are quite ready but after this past week it is looking A LOT better and I am happy to see it.

@Steve: Based on Oscar push there is no lead in Slumdog (definitely not a dumb question). However, I think we all know Patel is actually more of a lead than a supporting actor.

I'm confused about Waltz With Bashir – will that be eligible for Best Animated, Best Foreign and Best Documentary?

I feel that Heath should not get a nom or anything else, I thought he work was mid-level in that film, anybody can act crazy and sick and make it look ok.

SLUMDOG- Picture
Danny Boyle- Director
Sean Penn – Actor
Kate winslet – Actress
Kate wINSLET – sUPPORTING aCTOR
Robert Downey Jr. – Supporting Actor
Button- Addp. screenplay
The Wrestler – Script
Wall-e – Animated film
And I dont give a shit about anything else

@kassiopeia:

Even though I'm glad Winslet won, and am routing for her to win something at the Oscars, I still felt bad for Hathaway with the debacle since she's also just as likable. But hey, she'll live lol.

I have a feeling that for supporting actress, Evan Rachel Wood and possibly Kathy Bates will get nominated. The academy always seems to nominate one person no one else has.

@Brad Brevet:

thanks, the Jones thing is my big thing I use to persuade people to conisder Jenkins!
As for DiCaprio, he is the one person suffering this award season b/c he made the Rev. Road movie. I think Kate Winslet was good, but it's sad DiCaprio isn't getting the recognition he deserves. As for Shannon, I can see what you mean, but the comeback factor may also come into play with Downey Jr. He had some great films this year, and some may feel that a nod for him would be the proper pat-on-the-back. I think that Downey Jr and Shannon are neck-and-neck but who knows? The Oscars are the place for surprises!

I think that if The Dark Knight gets nominated (and I believe it deserves to be), it will actually stand a greater chance at winning than Ben Button or Frost/Nixon do. I personally don't think Frost/Nixon will win anything, and that Ben Button will win mostly technical stuff, if anything. Slumdog Millionaire is what is expected to win, but the same thing happened in 2005, and that ended up a big surprise on Oscar night.

I have a strong feeling that Kate Winslet and Mickey Rourke will take home the Oscars for lead acting categories.

Sean Penn is a strong candidate, but his already winning status could hurt his chance, compare that to Mickey Rourke whose acting in The Wrestler might be the greatest performance of his career, and this might be his one and only chance for him to take home the Oscar. Sean Penn still have a long career ahead of him.

Kate WInslet already nominated several times but never won, the Oscars will make her win this time.

Although Benjamin Button is a typical Oscar winning kind of movie, and Slumdog took the Globes, I still believe that Milk would win the top prize and Gus van Sant would take home best directing Oscar. He has a long list of achievements & contributions to American Cinema. This is the year for Oscars to pay him a tribute.

Then again, it's not just who's the best, but also who never won an Oscar yet?

I still hold by previous predictions (on another thread, somewhere on this here board). And I think that the only major award that "Dark Knight" will get on Oscar night (major awards being those listed by Brad) will be "best supporting actor" for Ledger. After that, it'll be special effects awards. All the other major awards will go to more "mainstream" movies.

@Dt Shindler: Dark Knight is more mainstream than any of the other contenders.

CHRIS: Eeeeeasssy there, fanboy. I was probably diggin comics and Batman before you were an airbubble in your dad's urethra. And comic book movies are obviously getting more acceptance in the mainstream…but…that doesn't mean most of the old fogies in the Academy that gives out the Oscars and/or those who like to think of themselves as purveyors and afficionados of Art (with a BIG capital "A") will believe "The Dark Knight" is such a beast. Read my statement above very carefully and you'll find the word mainstream is surrounding by quotation marks, like this: "mainstream." That's what we in the writing biz call inflection. In this case, the context of my message made it clear that my "inflection" made it clear that someone "else" might not consider "The Dark Knight" mainstream. Me? I like all movies and can do without the pigeonholes. Unlike the movie industry…and the givers of the Oscar awards.

Here endeth your mini-writing lesson.

Cheers,
Dt

Hey, thanks for a wonderful OSCAR SITE!!
This past Labor Day Weekend "Slumdog Millionaire" had a sneak screening at The Telluride Film Festival and the audinece went bonkers! The applause must have gone on for a good five minutes. "Slumdog" was an instant audience-winner.
Danny Boyle came on stage afterward to say a few words about filming in India and to field a few questions, mine among them: "Mr. Boyle, have you begun working on your Oscar accpetance speech?" (…audience laughter; applause, applause)
I'm sticking with my initial reaction and calling "SLUMDOG" for Best Director, Best Film, Best Song, Best Music, and Best Adapted Screenplay. See you at Telluride 2009!

Brad,

After going over your list I have to say I think it deviates too much from the guild and critics awards. I know Oscar nods often deviate from the guild nominees, but there are the people who will be voting, after all, and it just seems to me like maybe you're letting your personal feelings on who deserves to be nominated get in the way rather than who will. Here are the ones I'm guessing you're putting in with your heart rather than your gut:

Actress – Kristin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long)

Supporting Actor – Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)

Original Screenplay – Charlie Kaufman (Synecdoche, New York)

Thomas still has a shot, but her buzz is all but gone. Shannon seems to be a victim of RR tanking in the critics awards and Synecdoche's lack of a WGA nod really should relegate it to lower bubble level if not off of the list considering you have two WGA nominees significantly lower.

Benjamin Button? Really? This film was okay, not great, and I predict it does not get nominated for best film. Slumdog Millionaire, The Wrestler, Revolutionary Road, Milk, Dark Knight, Wall E, Doubt, Frost/Nixon and dare I say it, The Boy in Striped Pajamas were all much, much better films.

I also do not believe Brad Pitt stands a snowballs chance in hell of a best acting nomination. The role did not call for much acting in my opinion.

I have firmed up my predix. Here it is:
Best Picture: MILK
Best Actor: Sean Penn
Best Actress: Meryl Streep
Best Sup Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Sup. Actress: Kate Winslet (The Reader)

@Quake82: I think Benjamin Button completely deserves BP but with the reviews that slumdog has gotten, I doubt it will win. Here are my predictions.
1. Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
2. Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
3. Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
4. Actress: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
5. Supp. Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
6. Supp. Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
7. Original Screenplay: Milk
8. Adapted Screenplay: Benjamin Button
9. Animated Film: Wall-E
10. Foreign Language: Waltz with Bashir
11. Makeup: Benjamin Button
12. Cinematography: Benjamin Button
13. Visual Effects: The Dark Knight
14. Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
15. Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
16. Costume Design: The Duchess
17. Score: Defiance
18. Song: Bruce Springsteen, The Wrestler only because its springsteen and he's overrated

I don't know about Best Picture yet. But I do want Meryl Streep for Best Actress. It was too bad that she didn't win a GG. I rather have Kate win Best Supporting Actress. And I do agree with Heath Ledger for supporting and Sean Penn for best actor.

@Teddy: I'm happy you moved Jolie down too, she doesnt deserve it, Meryl Streep does, for sure. I think your wrong in the supporting actress though I think you should deff switch Penelope Cruz and Kate Winslet, I'm almost positive she'll win for supporting, and I HOOOOPPPEEE she doesn't win for lead actress because I am for Meryl Streep 100% of the way. She is fantastic and I love that even though she lost the golden globe you kept her in first place.

@BIRD: heath should win this one cause this is like an academy policy,how can you tell shit like that..he's already dead..

- Picture: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Director: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
- Actor: Sean Penn (Milk)
- Actrees: Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
- Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
- Supporting Actrees: Viola Davis (Doubt)
- Original Screenplay: Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky)
- Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)
- Animated Film: Wall·E
- Song: The Wrestler
- Original Score: A.R. Rahman (Slumdog Millionaire)
- Foreign Language: Waltz with Bashir
- Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Cinematography: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Costume Design: Revolutionary Road
- Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Visual Effects: The Dark Knight
- Sound: The Dark Knight
- Sound Editing: Wall·E
- Editing: The Dark Knight

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire*
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Frost/Nixon
Milk

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire*
Ron Howard- Frost/Nixon
David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Clint Eastwood- Changeling
Sam Mendez- Revolutionary Road

BEST ACTOR
Sean Penn- Milk*
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler
Brad Pitt- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Clint Eastwood- Grand Torino

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep- Doubt*
Anne Hatheway- Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road
Cate Blanchet- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sally Hawkins- Happy Go-Lucky

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight*
Josh Brolin- Milk
Robert Downey Jr.- Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
Ralph Fiennes- The Duchess

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kate Winslet- The Reader*
Taraji P. Henson- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Amy Adams- Doubt
Viola Davis- Doubt
Marisa Tomei- The Wrestler

BTW Why do all of you believe that Penelope Cruz will win best actress, I don't even think she will be nominated.