Oscar Predictions: Take Four, All Top Eight Categories
Some ups and downs remain, but the real contenders are shaping up...
What a wild week so far eh? And it is just going to get crazier as I decided to post my fourth round of Oscar predictions prior to the New York Film Critics announcing their awards for 2008 and tomorrow we will get the Golden Globe nominations. Best part about that is that next week's predictions have the chance to enjoy a little movement as this week there are certainly some changes, but we are getting close to having my nominee predictions pretty much locked.
This week the most drastic movement occurred in the Best Picture category as I have finally resigned to the fact that Frost/Nixon will be a contender for Best Pic even though it doesn't deserve it. Sure, Frost/Nixon is a perfectly fine movie, but it is not worthy of a Best Picture nomination. The other newcomer to the Best Pic category is WALL•E, which makes me very happy. I don't think it will earn a nomination as the "pat on the back" nom is pretty much reserved for The Dark Knight at this point, but with the LA Film Critics Association voting it the best film of the year, as did Time's Richard Corliss and the BFCA naming it one of the ten best of 2008 I think it is now safe to add it to the predictions.
Perhaps the biggest loser of the week was Revolutionary Road, a film I personally don't see as a Best Picture-worthy film even though it is a good film. The BFCA and LAFCA snubbed it outright not naming it for Best Picture, Actor or Actress, which has been credited to many voters not seeing it, but I don't buy that. I think the stock on this film is plummeting and I believe it is leaving the door wide open for Frost/Nixon or The Wrestler to slide into the Best Picture category in its place even though I still think DiCaprio and Winslet will earn acting noms and right now I think Sam Mendes is just above the bubble line for a directing nom. I hope to see the film again before making my final predictions and I believe a screener is heading my way, but I don't anticipate my opinion changing.
Three categories that saw virtually no change this time around include Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director. Personally I think Benjamin Button remains the Academy front-runner even though it isn't exactly performing too well with the critical awards so far. Right now Slumdog Millionaire is the darling, but I have a sneaking suspicion that feeling will wear off once it comes time to hand out the hardware even though I see a Golden Globe in its future.
If you haven't read it yet, I just reviewed The Reader (read here), a film I think carries Kate Winslet's best performance of the year and I have the screener of Che (can Benicio Del Toro come out of nowhere?) sitting here and am just looking for 4+ hours to set aside and take it all in. I am hoping to have reviews for Gomorrah, Ballast, Elegy and Good should all the screeners come through as well as scheduled reviews of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, Defiance, The Wrestler and Seven Pounds. Oh, and my interview with Darren Aronofsky will be online tomorrow and I am going to spend ten minutes on the phone with Viola Davis from Doubt soon so look for that, her performance in that flick is fantastic.
Now… for the predictions…
Just like last time, I have ranked each pick 1-10 and I ask you to
as I still have films to see. The list of films I have not seen yet include:
Next week I will finish off my 2008 movie screening quota with Gran Torino and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (gotta see it one more time). Time to start thinking about my personal top ten of 2008… What the hell is that going to look like?
So, with no further delay, click on the Next Page link to take a look at the predictions and
The 81st Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 22, 2009, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy's Samuel Goldwyn Theater. You can keep up with all my Oscar coverage in my "The Contenders" section right here.
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