Could someone please explain to me the appeal of Dev Patel? If I recall, he hasn't gotten one nomination this year except Best Young Actor at the BFCA and NBR, and I've barely heard anything regarding Oscar buzz when it comes to his performance. Do people honestly think he'll get in over James Franco, Robert Downey Jr., Liev Schrieber and Eddie Marson? I highly doubt it.

DISCLAIMER: If Dev Patel gets nominated at the SAGS in about five hours, I relinquish responsibility on everything I just said, even though I highly doubt he will.

@Garrett: I honestly can't tell you, I have him in there as the sympathy #5 at the moment only because I can't figure out if Marsan, Downey or any of the others right behind him will move in. It's a really close fifth spot. The SAGs are probably going to help me bump him out but will it be Downey, Irwin, Marsan or who to replace him? Right now I am not confident in placing any of them so I stick with Dev. :)

I really think that Robert Downey Jr. is going to move in the Top 5, because seeing all the kudos that the critics are giving to him and his Golden Globes nomination, he is a top choice. Kate Winslet make a beuatiful work in The Reader, I expect her to get more praise as the time pass. I hope Penelope Cruz get not just nominates to the Oscar, also to win the award, because she is amazing in Vicky Cristina Barcelona and she's a great actress, her work in Volver was simpily excellent. I yet have to see The Wrestler but personally I hate Mickey Rourke and for the Best Actor race, Sean Penn is the front-runner.

Milk nominations is improving very well.

@Brad Brevet: HA! Looks like I was wrong.

@Garrett: It's an interesting process eh? However, with Downey moving in and Shannon once again not getting a nom I am getting very confused on Revolutionary Road.

I thought Dev Patel was great in Slumdog and I hope he does get the Oscar nod. The SAG nod is just one step closer. I can't for the life of me understand the possibility that the Oscars might nominate both Heath Ledger and Robert Downey Jr for those roles in the same year.

I didn't think Downey stood a chance at an Oscar nod for Tropic Thunder a few months ago, but apparently he's starting to become a front runner what with all the critical recognition, a globe and SAG nod…..I still don't think his performance is worthy of an Oscar nomination (though I did find it the best and funniest part of the movie), but I guess we'll see.

All in all, a pretty boring list of nods from SAG….I must say I was quite angered to see that TDK wasn't nominated for best ensemble. People seem to forget that Gary Oldman, Michael Caine, and Morgan Freeman are anchoring that movie, and it wasn't just Heath Ledger who blew everyone away. Oh well, I guess I'll have to root double hard for PGA and DGA nods, otherwise TDK isn't going to make the best picture short list.

#4, Revolutionary Road? The critics seem to not like it as much as the others.

#10, Wall-E? I've seen more critics groups pick "Wall-E" for best picture than any other movie besides "Slumdog Millionaire". Why would you think that there are 9 movies that have a better chance for Best Picture?

@JerzeyJon: Because it is the Oscars and not critic lists. There is a MAJOR difference. It's the same reason I still have Ben Button above Slumdog for Best Picture.

Snobbery, politics and plenty of other factors must be considered. You also need to consider we are still over a month away from nominations being announced and if you read my comments on the SAG noms you will see my confidence in Revolutionary Road is wavering, but you can't deny the effect Winslet, Mendes and DiCaprion can have on the Academy… at least I can't. Perhaps a personal flaw.

Where are the In Bruges nominations? I think Colin Farrell should be at least listed in the top ten for the best actor… I don't think Dev Patel deserves an oscar nom because he didn't actually have that much screen time (and certainly didn't steal the show) in Slumdog Millionaire, I'd rather see Eddie Marsan get the nom, however the oscars love those unknown and young actors… (btw I loved Slumdog Millionaire)

@Scott: I agree with about everything you said there. I am a little baffled myself as to why The Dark Knight got snubbed for best ensemble, considering the actors involved in it. Oh well, it's just the SAGs.

And I am glad someone else has mutual feelings about Robert Downey Jr's performance in Tropic Thunder. I liked the movie and thought he was good in it, I even expected he'd get a Golden Globe nomination, same with Tom Cruise. I never saw it as an Oscar worthy performance, though. It's getting a bit out of hand, but that's just my opinion.

@Laura:

He's not choosing who he thinks deserves the Oscar nominations, but who he feels is going to get them. Just because you don't think Dev Patel deserves an Oscar nomination doesn't mean he's not getting buzz.

Also, in such a crowded year for Best Actor, I doubt Colin Farrell can be considered a top ten for possible oscar nominees. He'll certainly make my end of the year list though.

Brad

Regarding your comment below, I sure hope they DO have an influence, as I strongly feel "RR" and Leo and Kate are deserving of Oscar nods.

"but you can’t deny the effect Winslet, Mendes and DiCaprion can have on the Academy… at least I can’t."

I have not seen The Reader but I am wondering if Kate Winslet's performance is really "supporting" as The Golden Globes (and some others) indicate by their nom. She receives top billing in the film, and all the trailers I've seen revolve around her throughout, so I'm having a hard time believing her work is "supporting"…can those who have seen it weigh in? Thanks -

@Ken: Even if her role isn't really supporting, the politics of the Academy are placing her there. Weinstein is also campaigning for a supporting nomination so not to cancel out votes with Revolutionary Road. The Globes and SAGs are following through with it, so I expect the Oscars to do the same.

The problem is that very few critics have seen revolutionary road.The studio tries a strange marketing method…we will see if it works…as i know from an insider rr is the only movie many haven't seen…and at sag it was somehow forced to nominee kate winlset.Look at it this way…the greatest novel of 20th century with the most interesting characters ever and difficult as well…it's an acting breakthrough.In my opinion dicaprio and winlet make groundbreaking perfomances that it will make fellow actors and actreses to work harder to achieve such greatness.It's some very new techniques that only those two could do it…along with shannon.And if you take the cinematigraphy,costumes ,the whole cast, directing there is no reason no to nominate revolutionary road…Trust me…it will make it to the oscars and it will win many…if the academy still have credibility.

But why compare it to the book?It'a a movie not a book…if you haven't read the book?By the way…in my opinion and many others the movie will suceed..People are going to see the movie without knowign how depressing it is.They just going to see dicaprio and kate together.

In Bruges should be nominated! It is one of the best movies in years, the ultimate black comedy and Colin Farell give his best perfomance in his whole life!

@Scott: I'm aware that he's choosing them because of the buzz not by what he thinks deserves the nominations. But In Bruges was nominated for three golden globes and isn't on this list… Colin Farrel is far more likely to get a nom than Will Smith or Benicio Del Toro, I think. And the Dev Patel thing was just a side comment because of the discussion going on. I think the author has him in the right position considering all the buzz.

@Laura: Sorry to tell you this Laura, but Colin Farrell is not at all likely to get a nom. You have to remember the Golden Globes also have a Comedy/Musical section which makes for more nominees.

@Brad Brevet: I agree. I think in the Best Actor race, Rourke & Penn have a lock on a nom each. Langella is looking close to a lock, as well. While Eastwood's buzz has not seemed to grow, the Academy loves him, so a nom for "Gran Torino" as an actor would not surprise me. That leaves one spot to accommodate Brad Pitt, Richard Jenkins, Leonardo DiCaprio, et al. I don't see Colin Farrell having any hopes of getting on that list.

@Ken: You know, the Eastwood nom is something I thought may be a possibility, but the role is very weird. In Gran Torino his character is EXTREMELY racist and while it plays into the story it seems overly racist with a racial slur coming out of his mouth every chance he has… I don't know, just seemed a little uncalled for especially when the film itself turns into nothing more than a puff piece.

@Brad Brevet: I haven't seen the movie, so I'm spouting pure "nomination conjecture" but…the Academy loves Clint, he has announced this is his last on-screen role, and it plays (in the trailer) like a great combination of Dirty Harry and Unforgiven, so I think an acting nom is his. Penn, Rourke, Langella, Eastwood, and…? It all depends on how Revolutionary Road and Benjamin Button play. I have yet to hear a cohesive description of RR's plot (which is not a good sign) and BB just feels like it's a movie its producers and marketing people are trying to convince everyone else is great. But I haven't seen any of them, so like I say, it's pure conjecture.

As for Best Actress? Usually, it's an issue of which undeserving or supporting or foreign player is going to get shoved into the fifth spot. This year, there will be as many also-rans as nominees…and all deserving of a shot. Nice change.

patel was incredibly good…considering it was his first film he was acting in. i hope he gets the oscar nomination (fully deserved in my opinion)

but no-one can deny heath ledger this one! this is his moment