Thomas McCarthy with his The Visitor deserves rewards (nomination) in original screenplay~~

Why isnt the dark knight mentioned in adapted screenplay? Or this may be a long shot gary oldman nominated for supporting actor in the dark knight? Its his time.

@sid: I can tell you now Oldman will not be nominated. However, TDK is on the bubble for adapted screenplay, but this time around I only listed the top five in each category. As the weeks go by each update will get a little more detailed.

well done on giving Elsa Zylberstein a slot. Completely agree, she's a contender. I'm convinced actors are going to support the two performances of I've Loved You So Long in a big way.

Leo DiCaprio not nominated for Revolutionary Road?

Ralph Fiennes's performances this year are indeed outstanding, is there any chance for him to take up a slot in the supporting actor? "In Bruges" is also a good movie which cannot be ignored?!

So, your predictions include films you haven't seen? Why not do it based on what you have seen and adjust it as you see the "unseen as of yet" films? Are you basing your predictions based on buzz or other people's thoughts or the trailers? I think you are better than this.

I think Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder is wishful thinking. I liked him in the movie, but I wouldn't call that performance Oscar-worthy.

No love for Australia?

I think we'll be seeing Amy Adams for Supporting Actress and possibly Taraji P Henson as well for Benjamin Button? And what about Leonardo for Revolutionary Road – will they be able to resist giving the lead acting Oscars to the two people who starred in the biggest grossing movie of all time?

@Scott:

WTF? Heath Ledger, #1?

That also sounds like wishful thinking.

I am willing to bet my life than ledger will not will that Oscar. I'm 99% positive.

If Revolutionary Road is the success you feel it will be (and I agree), then expect Michael Shannon to nab a supporting actor nom. Early reviews have praised him moreso than Winslet/Leo, and in a relatively weak year for Oscar-bait supporting actor, Shannon should have a clear shot over the likes of RDJ or Dev Patel. In actress, I expect Jolie to be snubbed and for Melissa Leo to take her place. Leo is an actor's thesb…and her peers will vote for her. She has over 75 film credits to her name, and that will play well for her, especially in the minds of those wanting to honor careers. I have no qualms with supporting actress, but I don't feel I've Loved You So Long will score two noms. Kate Winslet has buzz and the name to make a double nom happen, and I think that her chances at the gold are stronger in supporting with The Reader. I don't feel comfortable picking director yet, but I have a suspicion that Aronofsky will score his first nomination for The Wrestler.Our actor/screenplay (both) categories are the same which is cool, and I'm loving The Visitor love.

WallE for original screenplay. Not only is it a lock for a nomination, it for sure could win

i still think doubt will be nominated for picture. & i'm crossing my fingers for TDK as well.

@JoGo: I already do that right here.

@Maiglo: Australia is NOT a good movie. It may have a chance at Cinematography but I see nothing more than that in its future.

@Ethan: It's on the list, just not this one yet.

@Jerzey Jon: Yup, Heath Ledger is a lock and I would say a lock to win at the moment.

@Scott: Watch the film again and when you watch it try and decide just how easy that role was to do. Then watch it with the audio commentary and imagine anyone else trying to pull it off.

In Bruges should be a shoe-in for an original screenplay nomination. The Dark Knight for Best Picture, now that will never happen. Nomination for Ledger is certain, the director nomination, well… Nolan is a good director but I don't think the academy will recognize for it. I hadn't even thought about it until now.

Kaufman should also have a lock on the original screenplay nom, just because he's Charlie Kaufman.

If Ben Button is nominated, I doubt it will get 0 acting nominations

Hey Mr. Brevet, I can't wait till you see "Revolutionary Road" and tell us how it is.

I hope the movie is great. I love DiCaprio & Winslet.

I agree, he was very good, but Robert Downey Jr. will not be nominated for best supporting actor. Absolutely no way.

Hmmm…I would rather put Debra Winger up instead of Rosemarie Dewitt. Don't get me wrong, I thought Dewitt was fantastic in Rachel Getting Married, but I think Winger has more of a chance. Though I wish both of them are nominated. Also, hey…no Leonardo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road. I don't think Richard Jenkins is gonna end up in the top 5. Nice to see The Dark Knight!!!!.

@J.Rodriguez: Winger I do see as a possibility as well as Bill Irwin for potentially Supporting Actor.

@will: Ben Button is at the top of my lists right now simply because it is so highly anticipated and I think people want to award Fincher. It all depends on the film and that is really why this should be considered so preliminary, but I am loving all the conversation.

@Just Some Guy: In Bruges is great, but its early release really hurts it. As for Kaufman, he is a talent, but my gut tells me right now Synecdoche won't be getting a lot of recognition. Things always change though once all the films have been seen.

If the academy was smart, they would nominate The Dark Knight for Best Picture. They would get lots more viewers. Plus it deserves the nomination, being one of the most memorable films of the year. Heath will get nominated and if he doesn't, then the academy doesn't know a good performance when they see one. I hope he wins. The Dark Knight should be nominated for best adapted screenplay. Not easy to make a film based off of a comic book a masterpiece. Christopher Nolan I hope will be nominated for Best Director. He deserves it. As for the other films, well…. I haven't seen any of them. The only one that I might see is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Only thing that isn't good looking about that film is Brad Pitt. I don't like Brad Pitt. Other than that it looks interesting.

I think Kate Winslet will end up with a double nomination for Revolutionary Road in Lead and The Reader in Supporting. Unless the Academy decides to bump her up to lead for The Reader and not nominate her for The Reader. From what anyone has said about the reader (of thse that have seen it) Kate Winslet owns that movie in a way not seen since Meryl Streep in Sophie's Choice,

OSCAR FOR JOKER I MEAN LEDGER!!!

Gus Van Sant will almost without a doubt get a second Best Director nomination for "Milk."
I just saw it, and his work is outstanding.

I think Australia, deserves a little bit more nominations in the popular categories. It looks way better than some of the flicks mentioned. Come on……

@Damien: Sorry Damien, I've seen it and didn't like it one bit. My review should be online Monday if all goes as planned.

@Joseph: Milk is great isn't it! The Wrestler is really good too and I don't have Aronofsky in my top five but he could move in there.

Finally, saw Defiance today… Really good performances by Craig and Schrieber, movie is pretty slow though and that is going to hold it up.

Here's to hoping The Dark Knight will get at least 5 Oscar noms. My opinion: there simply won't be a performance out this year that will top Heath Ledger; his performance is completely beyond words. Planning on seeing TDK for a 7th time in theatres when it gets re-released in January.

Really anticipating Defiance, Zwick is an incredible director and after QoS, stoked for more Craig.

A few thoughts. I find it curious that the Cannes Palme d'Or winner Entre les murs (The Class) is not mentioned. Definitely the best of the year. The Dark Knight and WALL-E were the best summer movies ever. Slumdog Millionnaire and the Hurt Locker (Jeremy Renner outstanding) were the best I saw at Toronto festival. (Nothing But the Truth a real disappointment.) Thumbs up for Melissa Leo for Frozen River which I saw at Sundance. Elite Squad was great at Berlin. I didn't like The Wrestler at Venice. Sorry. And no mention of Heath Ledger's ex Michelle Williams? Great in Incendiary, even better in Wendy and Lucy, and one of the good things about Synecdoche New York. Milk is terrific, as is Sean Penn (who presided over the Cannes jury's unanimous choice, by the way.)

@Gerald Schmitz: I actually have Wendy and Lucy right here on my desk to watch and as for The Class, it's competing in the Foreign category but don't expect it to creep into any other categories. It's listed with the rest of the Foreign Contenders right here.

I have heard a lot about The Hurt Locker but Summit isn't releasing it until 2009 so no go in this year's Oscars.

Leo is good in Frozen River, but I don't think she will be considered, and I would put Sally Hawkins above her anyway.

Gust Van Sant for best director

NO heath ledger.. plizz

While I find it quite a longshot, I do think that both Ines Efron (Best Actress) and Martin Piroyansky (Supporting Actor) should be nominated for the brilliant XXY, which is also, at this point, worthy of a Best Picture nom, let alone Best Foreign Film (though I know this will never happen, despite it being the best picture of the year). Also, Andrew Garfield (Best Actor) should be nominated for Boy A, and Brendan Gleeson (Sup. Actor) for In Bruges, while Danai Jekesai Guira should get a supporting nom for The Visitor. And, while we're at it, I would give The Hammer a nod for original screenplay – it is easily the most enjoyable film all year, and definitely one of the most underrated and neglectably under-seen.

Does anyone even remember Vicky Christina Barcelona enough to garner it noms??? Or does it cruise by on Woody Allen's name alone?

Also – there are way too many unseen films yet for any of this to matter. I really think that there were too many overlooked smaller indie films this year – heck, Julianne Moore gave the performance of her career in Saving Grace, a movie too vile to get any kind of nominations, yet Moore's work definitely deserves it.

That said, I'm eagely awaitng Milk, Doubt, Gran Turino, Seven Pounds, The Case of Benjamin Button, The Wrestler, Revolutionary Road, and Che (among others). I just wish a lot of the smaller films from earlier in the year (XXY, In Bruges, The Hammer, Boy A, The Visitor, etc…) would be remembered – they surely beat out the so-called blockbusters from the summer…

I think The Curious Cae of Benjamin Button will win best picture. Best Director will go to Gus Van Zant fo Milk. Sean Penn will win Best Actor. It is hard to predict the other acting categories. Screenplay awards will go to The Curious Case of Bejamin Button and Milk.

For some reason, I have a feeling that "The Wrestler" might be nominated for Best Picture.

Great acting (Rourke is an absolute lock for an "Best Actor" nomination, if not a lock to win it) , Great plot (just look at the trailer, nuff said), and an awesome soundtrack (Bruce Springsteen is a shoe-in for a "best original song" nomination, and maybe even "Best Original Score").

Any thoughts, Double B?

@Vera: A film can't win both screenplay awards, or can it???

@Jerzey Jon:

I'm not Vera, but I can answer this… NO – there are two catagories for screenplay, Best Original Screenplay, meaning a screenplay written specifically for the screen, and Best Adapted Screenplay, meaning a script written from a previous source, like a book or a play. Doubt, since it was a play, would be an example of an Adapted Screenplay…

Overlooking Sally Hawkins would be tragic… I think both she and Melissa Leo have a good chance of squeezing into what might be this year's most competitive category

Thank you for including Dev Patel! I hope he makes it.

It's a small film that needs all the representation it could get.

Plus, 'Skins' wasn't bad, either, but he was great in 'Slumdog.'

what about any of the other actors from milk? i thought everyone was great. (and i know this is an oscar post, but does this movie have ANY competition for best performance by an ensemble at the SAGs?)

I've only read two reviews of Revolutionary Road and neither exactly seemed to indicate that it would be a top oscar contender. I get that Milk's topic couldn't be hotter and it's getting good reviews but what was the last political film to be a serious contender?

i just saw slumdog millionaire today and it blew me away. my fingers are crossed for this flick to pull an upset! and danny boyle to win best director and maybe even screenplay! i know it will be shut out of any acting categories and the stiffest competition will probably come from benjamin button. i think the acting categories will go to sean penn, penelope cruz and heath ledger. actress is up in the air but most likeley will go to meryl streep even tho its getting kinda redundant (they should spread the wealth). i wish there could be an upset in every category! except supporting actress definitely belongs to penelope. loved it. but 4 sure slumdog millionaire is hands down my favorite movie of the year. final answer =]

i agree with raul, i was very impressed with the overall picture from beginning to end. slumdog millionaire was better then i thought it was going to be. i have seen a ton of movies this past year. i havent seen, australia, changeling, or the reader. but i have seen milk, doubt, gran torino, frost/nixon, cc of b.b., and obviously the dark knight. in my opinion i think slumdog millionaire should win best picture unless revolutionary road blows me away. best actor should be sean penn unless leonardo's performance is aviator-esque, or frank langella. best actress meryl streep for doubt, her performance was strong like sophie's choice, kramer vs kramer's wins she had. supporting actress i think should be kate winslet just because i havent seen the reader or revolutionary road, but i will by friday and she deserves it! supporting actor no question should be heath ledger.

@Jerzey Jon:

bet your life on it?? thats like saying his performance is not even worthy of a nomination with that kind of comment….b please!

I really think you hit the nail on the head with most of these predictions. Of course there will be some surprises, but those are sometimes impossible to predict.

The only place where we disagree would be with Frost/Nixon. No love? Howard will gain a nomination for best director, not just because he is an Oscar favorite, but because he took a somewhat bland topic and made it riveting. His ability to appeal to the masses is immense and I see him gaining a nomination based on history. I also think that love will garner it a Best Picture nomination! You are spot on with Langella (Best Actor) and Morgan (Best Adapted Screenplay).

Just for kicks what do you all think is the worst film of the year? My vote is for "Nights in Rodanthe" … a film so bad I refused to leave the theatre because I wanted to keep laughing at filmmakers and actors who must have known they were making a remarkably bad film.

@Jerzey Jon: Then you – are a fool.

I think the predictions for nominations are pretty spot on – with one or two exceptions. Though there has been no Pitt love in the past, I think that Benjamin Button will earn him a nod. Richard Jenkins will suffer from staring in a film that came out too early. It was also a performance that really didn't have a 'big moment.' Then again, Pitt didn't really have one either – but he will ride the wave of Button to a nod. The nod is Pitt's reward. That said, I fully believe this is Clint's to win one for acting – and what better role to do it with the older Dirty Harry/MwNN type from which he gained fame? Mickey Rourke could also win, but I don't think his comeback is enough. This is the type of performance that could land him some roles that give him the opportunity for more future nominations, but I think he's looked somewhat foolish throughout the awards season. The Academy wants respect, and if they think he shows up dressed like he was with a haircut he had at the GGs, no way in hell they vote to let him take stage and thank people's 'balls' for giving him a second chance – not to mention Axl Rose. I don't know which is worse.

Speaking of respect – why not give the award to The Dark Knight? We've not had a blockbuster – I mean a real blockbuster win since LotR:RotK. I'd say it's about time – but then again Slumdog Millionaire is the littlemisssunshine movie that could. I know that many believe TDK to be fighting for that #5 spot, but I think it's much more secure than most believe. If anything, I believe Revolutionary Road to be the movie on the outs. I believe Frost/Nixon will slip in there and that to be the movie on the edge of not being nominated in place of RR.

More to come later – love to hear what you have to say.

@dylan: It certainly is a shame that James Franco will get no love for his performance in Milk. I think he's the rock of the film and quite honestly – my heart breaks for him – which is entirely because of the strength of his performance. Brolin is fine in it, but it saddens me that he's going to get his 'good job for the last two years' nomination. Sure he was good in No Country for Old Men, American Gangster, In the Valley of Elah, Milk, W., but please – PLEASE GIVE James Franco this nomination. It's funny – everyone predicted Brolin as a sure bet to be nominated for W. but instead we get another actor nominated for playing a prick Republican President… great performances by both to be sure.