Oscar Contenders Housekeeping: Prediction Clean-Up
Duvall, Firth and Moore are in, now let's sort 'em out
Can you feel it? It's officially underway. The Toronto International Film Festival has come to a close and the horses are in their stalls and the gun has gone off. The awards race is in full swing and while there are several films yet to be seen, there are a few early front-runners to keep our eyes on.
Now, not a lot has happened since my last update that I haven't mentioned in periodic articles since then, but I still needed to update my predictions as a result. Sony Pictures Classics has made an impact with their purchase of Get Low and the Weinstein Co. picked up A Single Man. Both pick-ups instantly add new contenders to the likes of Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress and Best Actor.
On top of that, Lee Daniels' Precious did wonderful at the Toronto Film Festival taking home the top prize and several submissions have been added to the Foreign Language list and I expect that will be completely filled up very soon as the deadline for submissions is less than one week away (Sept. 30). I just added the submissions from Bolivia, Mexico and Slovakia.
As for this update, I am primarily adding these new contenders to the mix and doing some shuffling around of my predictions. I have linked to the individual prediction pages below, but let me give a short update on the reason for some of the moves before you head off and begin making your own judgments.
BEST PICTURE
I have added A Single Man to the list, debuting at #13, and instead of knocking contenders off I have simply made it a list of 16 titles and will continue to add places until the nominees are announced so as not to confuse people who have been paying attention throughout, and this goes for the rest of the prediction lists from here on out.
There are a few ups and downs taking place from rankings 6 and below, but my top five remain the same:
- Invictus
- Up In the Air
- Nine
- An Education
- Precious
Some pundits have involved Michael Moore's Capitalism in the Best Picture conversation, but I just don't see that happening. Not by a long shot.
BEST ACTOR
The biggest shift in today's prediction updates comes with the Best Actor category as four new names have been added to the list, including Colin Firth from A Single Man debuting at #4 and Robert Duvall from Get Low just missing the top five at #6. Basically, looking at these two names without having seen either film I get the feeling we are talking about filling the slot Melissa Leo occupied in the Actress category last year for Frozen River. I just don't see them both getting in and the buzz on Firth seems to be slightly louder at this point.
I have also added Clive Owen for The Boys are Back and Robert Downey Jr. is back on the list at #13 for Sherlock Holmes. However, I don't think either will appeal to the Academy as I have already seen Owen in Boys are Back and while it's a good performance the film's release date and the rather generic nature of the film overall will be its downfall. Dave Karger at "Entertainment Weekly" recently spoke to Owen about the role and brings up his Oscar chance in his intro, but I disagree with him talking it up as Owen's "most nuanced and emotional performance of his career." Then again, I am a die-hard fanatic of Closer and may not be the best person to judge. You can watch the interview here.
As for Downey in Sherlock, I think Johnny Depp's performance in Pirates of the Caribbean earning a nomination will be the last time for a while that a performance of that nature earns an Oscar nom. I think we will see an outright comedic performance get nominated before a quality blockbuster performance repeats Depp's feat.
BEST ACTRESS
While the new additions to the Best Actor category may be the largest overall changes, the Best Actress category saw all but the top spot change as Paramount Pictures emailed me yesterday confirming Saorise Ronan will be submitted to Best Actress and not Supporting for The Lovely Bones. The move finds her in the #6 slot on the list, while the top five is also shaken up a bit with Gabourey Sidibe from Precious moving up two slots to #2, just behind Carey Mulligan in An Education. It's still early, but these are certainly the two best performances I have seen thus far.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Best Supporting Actor only saw one small change near the top with Matt Damon remaining at #1 for Invictus. The one move involved bumping Stanley Tucci from #3 to #2 for his upcoming performance in The Lovely Bones. While the film has not yet been seen, I thought Tucci was one of the best parts of Julie and Julia, he has been talked about for the recent limited release Blind Date and just scored a role in Steven Antin's musical Burlesque. In my eyes he is a hot property and if he can live up to my expectations for his character in The Lovely Bones I think he is going to be a real contender for that top spot.
My main reasoning right now for keeping Damon at the top is because, while I think Damon was great in The Informant! I don't see the movie scoring that well with the Academy, but I think his performance will be remembered to the point once it comes to Damon in a Clint Eastwood movie he is sure to be a lock for a nom should his performance live up to expectations. At that point it simply comes down to how good it is, but I think The Informant! is going to work in his favor for his latter film of the year, just as I am assuming the same will happen for Tucci.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
One new addition and one move as this category only had nine contenders, with Ronan getting bounced to Best Actress, until I added Julianne Moore for her much talked about performance in A Single Man. Moore debuts on the list at #6 while Vera Farmiga's performance in Up In the Air bounces her from #6 to #4.
I received an email just a few hours before putting these recent rankings together from a reader who had been in Toronto talking up Anna Kendrick from Up In the Air. This isn't the first time I have heard Kendrick's name talked up with regards to this film, but even as weak as the field seems to be I just don't see a second new name making an impact as I can't imagine Mo'Nique not getting nominated for her outstanding performance in Precious. But we'll see, if Rob Marshall's Nine doesn't impress the way many assume it will this is the one category that will be blown wide open as a result.
BEST DIRECTOR
And finally, with director it's the only category where my #1 contender changed as I have bumped Clint Eastwood to #2 and moved Jason Reitman into the top slot. I have also moved Lee Daniels into the top five and bumped out James Cameron, but with my list of ten I would say we have three names almost everyone would write-in for nominations at this point (sight unseen) and seven others that would all be tied for the third slot, waiting to be sorted once every minute of every film has been seen.
James Cameron is a pure talent and to knock him out of the top five wasn't easy. Jane Campion has received plenty of good word from everyone but me. Lee Daniels' Precious has done well at every turn. Kathryn Bigelow's The Hurt Locker has been talked about all year. Lone Scherfig's An Education has been in the Oscar conversation since its Sundance debut. Since Lord of the Rings it would be impossible to count out Peter Jackson and Mira Nair's Amelia spells Oscar-bait although it seems to be the one contender I continually hear negative buzz on without a single positive yet to be uttered from any corner.
So when looking at the director category, just continue to remember we are still in the early stages.
And there you have it, you can check out all my latest Oscar Predictions by visiting The Contenders or clicking on any one of the following links to get started. Each opens in a new window so just close the window to return to this post.
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