Can 'Transformers 2' Manage a $175 Million 5-Day Opening?

Oh, and we have a new image for yah...

Photo: Paramount / DreamWorks

Prior to seeing Terminator Salvation and being supremely disappointed I posed the question What Will Be the Biggest Domestic Box-Office Hit of 2009? and based on the 602 people that voted, 39% of them believed the winner would most likely be Paramount's Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. Considering the first installment grossed $319 million domestically and $708 million worldwide all while carrying a 57% RottenTomatoes rating I would say that's not a bad guess, and now Nikki Finke is taking things to a much higher level with the following:

Paramount is gonna call me screaming any moment. But rival studios are telling me they expect Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen to open with a high of $175M for its 5-day opening from Wednesday, June 24 to Sunday, June 28. Because the sequel came onto tracking HUGE today.

This is most likely due to the exposure the film received at last night's MTV Movie Awards, which targets the 12-34 demographic, to which the 2009 show scored a 4.8 rating, up 92% from last year and also the strongest showing since the 2004 awards. Sure, most fans were tuning in for Twilight mayhem, but that doesn't mean they weren't catching an eyeful of transforming robots at the same time, not to mention Eminem's eyeful of Sacha Baron Cohen.

Finke uses Spider-Man 2and Pirates Of The Caribbean 2 numbers to find logic in the already logical prediction as both made over $150 million ($152 million and $168 million respectively) opening in similar five-day time frames.

We will just have to wait until June 24 to find out, but none of this surprises me.

As for that new image you see above, that's the film's bad robot… his name's Fallen. You can get a larger look right here.


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Post #1
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As much as I would like to see that happen, i do not think it will. I dont think it will be this summer's The Dark Knight

- atlroller
( June 1st, 2009 | 10:58 pm )
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Post #2
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I would like to see Harry Potter take home the summer crown this year!

- atlroller
( June 1st, 2009 | 11:01 pm )
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Post #3
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As a fan of quality and intelligence in films I certainly hope it doesn't do that well, but when MTV, Twilight and Transformers convene on 1 night it can only mean that Satan is working overtime to pull in big bucks for this thing. I weep for the future.

- Trevor
( June 1st, 2009 | 11:06 pm )
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Post #4
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It certainly could do $175 million, but I think it'll stay at around $160 million more likely, but it'll drop like a rock after that for sure. If it opens to that, I don't see it making more than $350 million total in the States, which is an improvement on the original sure (and prob. the highest grossing film of the year) but not a runaway success like the "Spider-Man" films or the second "Pirates" movie.

It better not beat the O.W. of "The Dark Knight", or I will start shanking people.

- Vince
( June 1st, 2009 | 11:56 pm )
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Post #5
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Hmm. It's possible. but I wonder why they didn't stick to the traditional Friday release, so it can possibly challenge TDK's opening weekend record.

- Nelson
( June 1st, 2009 | 11:57 pm )
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Post #6
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@Vince: It won't break the opening weekend record currently held by The Dark Knight (158mil and change). It's opening on a Wed, so it will have 2 full days before the traditional 3-day (Fri-Sun) weekend starts. By the time Friday comes, it would probably have around 70-80mil in the bag. This then takes heat out of the Fri-Sun period, whrein it could add another 90mil. Then, Paramount press releases will boldly highlight "165mi for Transformers 2 in it's first 5 days" instead of the real opening weekend of around 90mil or so.

- JunJun
( June 2nd, 2009 | 12:07 am )
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Post #7
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i think either transformers 2 or harry potter has good chance of breaking TDK's record. but thats just me, see every summer a movie comes out that takes the box office up a notch, like TDK last year, transformers 2 has real potential, but shia lebouf is annoying, and megan fox cant act. so its all up to the robots. lol

- ddurden33
( June 2nd, 2009 | 12:45 am )
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Post #8
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Transformers 2 had a chance at taking down TDK's opening weekend record, but it's gone now since the movie is being released on a Wed. Transformers 2 will not make 159+ million over it's opening weekend (Fri-Sun) period because like what an earlier commenter says, the Wed and Thurs lead in will eat up a lot of business.

- Devin
( June 2nd, 2009 | 1:20 am )
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Post #9
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Since when is MTV a stage for exposure? That channel is nothing more than crap "reality TV" and

Anyway, I'm low-balling it for all the movies this year there are only like three that are opening "above expectations" and even then those movies sink like stones the very next week when they are supposed to have long legs. The only on that is holding well is Star Trek.

What are the other big releases this year? HP6, and Transformers? That's it really, the other movies either have limited appeal, "G-force" "the Ugly Truth"

While the others are R-rated, "Public Enemies" and "Bruno"
Yes, there are other movies coming out, but there really isn't anything that doesn't have the masses running to the box office anytime soon.

- Eric
( June 2nd, 2009 | 8:13 am )
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Post #10
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I don't know how much it'll do in it's 5 first days, but it'll do alot! And I suppose Transformers 2 could be able do to something around 400 million in the US alone! And even more overseas!!!

And I say that with sadness, because we will allow a Michael Bay movie to make 1 billion dollars worldwide.

Oh, dear God… We are ready for Armageddon now, I guess. Just finish it. Please. :/

- Leandro Dubost
( June 2nd, 2009 | 11:35 am )
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Post #11
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I agree with altroller and Trevor. If Harry Potter makes #1, it shows that a new Golden Age has arrived. If Transformers 2 or New Moon make #1, the end of the world is near.
———————————————————————————————————————

"In my life, I've seen things that are truly horrific. Now I know you will see worse".
-Albus Dumbledore

"World, here I come!"
-Hellboy

"They wish to cure us, but, I say, we are the cure!"
-Magneto

"I must not tell lies"
-Harry Potter

- Harry Potter Fanatic
( June 2nd, 2009 | 3:33 pm )
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Post #12
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I'd just like to state for the record that I do not endorse Harry Potter any more than Transformers as Fantatic seems to have implied. The Potter films may be better than Transformers but neither franchise is what I consider quality filmmaking.

I'm inclined to believe that Potter films can be good to those people that do love that series and the story they're telling, but Transformers, to me, appeals to the lowest common denominator.

Basically Harry Potter, Transformers and New Moon are all in the same boat for me. A New Golden Age in film would consist of this kind of event movie seizing to exist, allowing creative writers/directors to truly get their films out there instead of being relegated to the limited release/non existence they are right now.

- Trevor
( June 2nd, 2009 | 5:12 pm )
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Post #13
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I meant "Fanatic" as in "harry potter fanatic" not "fantatic".
This is why we should be able to edit our posts.

- Trevor
( June 2nd, 2009 | 5:13 pm )
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Post #14
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What is wrong with you people in this comments section?? How many times have you taken out transformers 1 on blu-ray or dvd to watch??.. I will be surprised that you have only ever watched it once!!..I totally hope Transformers 2 gets number 1 for this year.. Hey who doesnt like a bit of action, of this years round up of movies??.. yeah sure terminator salvation did suck balls, "big time".. but I'm thinking this transformers 2 film will pull in all the crowds like the dark knight did… and if your disagreeing with me.. than that would mean your not going to see this sequel?? or are you??.. I prove my point..

I'm thinking all the users who commented in this section and totally knocked shia lebouf and Megan fox's acting careers will be the same minority to go and see it.. Yes i soughta like Twilight, but the only reason Twilight is so big and took out MTV best movie awards the other night ago is because there is so much majority of teenybopper girls and an age group between 23 to 27 year old's out there, still reminiscing their younger years of Buffy and Angel.. where Buffy was the poor adolescent girl (Bella) and Angel was the vampire (Edward)..

I also like Harry potter,, but Harry Pot Head is just a franchise of films like twilight,, in which are book based movies cashing in on the millions from young imaginative minds. And aren't really exploring the key essence of intelligence and creativity from the book's representation. But transformers on the other hand,, comic book to movie based take's on the hard thing to do,, which is to create a good story line and pack cgi effects in to one thing while attracting the audience into it.. Hey we all saw the mistakes of the day the Earth Stood still remake had,, or the first hulk movie..

To sum up my statement.. Is just to say.. I'm hoping transformers does do well,, but not as good as a real quality and intelligent film as the Dark knight did.

- David
( June 2nd, 2009 | 6:36 pm )
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Post #15
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Anyone be thinking that Up could cross the $300 million

- Bustray
( June 6th, 2009 | 6:24 am )
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Post #16
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i think if the word of mouth is good enough it can come close but it won't beat dark knight but i am definatley offically going to transformers thursday afternoon at 3:35 I just bought my tickets today so i will be there thursday

- justin casey
( June 22nd, 2009 | 11:25 pm )
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Post #17
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and no offense but terminator salvation did not suck sure it could've been better but as a life long fan i must say i was very entertained and the effects were quite impressive

- justin casey
( June 22nd, 2009 | 11:28 pm )
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