Filed under: Friday Estimates

'Knowing' Looks to Top Weekend Box-Office with $24 Million

'I Love You, Man' eyes second with 'Duplicity' a respectable third

Nicolas Cage in Knowing
Photo: Summit Entertainment

It has been only three weeks since the release of Watchmen and it has already tumbled out of the conversation, and this week it looks to drop yet another 60% as Steve Mason at Big Hollywood thinks it will stagger to a $110 million domestic box-office run, certainly less than many expected. But like I said, Watchmen is out of the conversation and this week saw three wide releases competing for the top spot featuring themes of global destruction, R-rated comedy and Julia Roberts back with top billing.

While our very own Box-Office Oracle predicted I Love You, Man would come in at #1 (an opinion I didn't disagree with) it looks like Summit did a proper job of marketing Knowing to the masses as it pulled in an estimated $8.8 million on Friday and is looking at a $24 million weekend. I never got a chance to see the movie before its release as it was screened the same night as Duplicity here in Seattle and I had to make a choice… Duplicity won out. Looking around the Internet I have been baffled by the reviews as people seem to either love or hate the feature.

Roger Ebert gave it four stars saying Knowing "is among the best science-fiction films I've seen — frightening, suspenseful, intelligent and, when it needs to be, rather awesome."

Alternatively A.O. Scott disagrees saying, "The draggy, lurching two hours of Knowing will make you long for the end of the world…"

It's the same thing everywhere you go… love and hate… I may have to check it out this weekend and perhaps that division in opinion will help the film maintain next weekend when Monsters vs. Aliens will likely take the top spot, but Knowing could hold on strong.

Coming in at the #2 slot on Friday is Paramount's comedy I Love You, Man which brought in an estimated $6.9 million on Friday and hopes to push $20 million for the three-day.

Julia Roberts made a respectable return to the big screen with Clive Owen in Duplicity with $5 million on Friday and may earn upwards of $15 million for the weekend. As Mason points out, the audience for this kind of flick is not necessarily a first weekend audience and word of mouth could propel this film to a potentially decent overall return around $45 million. Not sure what this does to answer the question "Is Duplicity Going to Test the Star Power of Julia Roberts?" but it certainly doesn't mean folks were rushing to one of its 2,574 theaters to see her latest.

Race To Witch Mountain falls to the #4 slot on Friday with an estimated $3.6 million and is expected to end the weekend with around $14 million after winning the weekend last week and Watchmen is likely to finish fifth.

You can check out Steve Mason's early Friday estimates directly below and stay tuned as Laremy will be here Sunday with the final box-office results.

  1. Knowing (Summit) – $8.8 million
  2. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.9 million
  3. Duplicity (Universal) – $5 million
  4. Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $3.6 million
  5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $2.2 million
  6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $2.17 million
  7. Taken (Fox) – $1.45 million
  8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.05 million
  9. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $1 million
  10. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $650,000

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Post #1
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Pretty good weekend, I can see. Everyone's outperforming expectations; hooray for all!

- Vince
( March 21st, 2009 | 2:20 am )
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Post #2
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"decent overall return around $45 million"

Is it that good when the $15 million this weekend probably only covers Julia Roberts salary? We are at this point that if a women is at the top of the credits, it will not make any money, unless it's a low budget movie. Heck, the biggest female draw right now is Tyler Perry, and I am not joking.

- Steve
( March 21st, 2009 | 10:09 am )
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Post #3
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Yay! On BOM I predicted:
$23.3 million for Knowing
$17.5 million for I Love You, Man
$12.9 million for Duplicity.

It looks like I'm within $2 million for each!

I'm very sad about "Watchmen," though. I've watched it three times already, and I'm trying to get more people to see it. My oldest sister has just finished the graphic novel and really wants to see the movie. My roommate, who hasn't read the graphic novel, wants to see the movie nevertheless, and he got very pumped when I told him it was more of a philosophical film than an action film (we're in college, where we more appreciate academia in our films :D).

- JM
( March 21st, 2009 | 1:24 pm )
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Post #4
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The more I hear about "Watchman", I remember the same things said about "Grindhouse". Fans basically saying the masses was not ready for something like this, almost belittling if you ask me.

- Steve
( March 21st, 2009 | 4:31 pm )
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Post #5
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All 3 movies this weekend were GREAT! i enjoyed them all, the only down side was the end of Knowing. Such an intense movie until the end when all my expectations were let out like a huge gasp of air. but i would still see it again for the first 9/10 of the movie! good weekend. bring on Monsters vs. Aliens, Haunting in Connecticut, and i might see 12 rounds!

- bryce
( March 21st, 2009 | 10:17 pm )
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