Filed under: Movie News

Is 'Watchmen' the Next '300'? – Take Two

Another look at the same question with a different approach

Rodrigo Santoro as Xerxes in 300
Photo: Warner Bros.

Personally I have a lot of doubt in Watchmen's abilities to score big at the box-office. I believe it will open big thanks to fanboy support, but a rumored running-time of 162 minutes I don't think it will be able to do the repeat business 300 enjoyed and while the length closely mirrors that of this year's success The Dark Knight the comparison between the two ends there. Sure, The Dark Knight had some political tidbits and wasn't all about the action and spectacle, but you could watch it and be oblivious to any underlying political points and enjoy it almost just as much. With Watchmen, if you aren't paying attention you won't be satisfied with just the few moments of action, there isn't enough to sustain you. Are general audiences prepared for such a film?

Early test screenings of the film have been wildly popular and outside of some ending controversy, word is the film is extremely faithful to the source material. This is good news for fans, but I am not sure how it will sit with audiences.

It's weird to sit and write this knowing the film is less than four months away considering it has had such a long and treacherous trek to the big screen and still faces speed bumps thanks to a current lawsuit presented to Warner Bros. over rights, with which 20th Century Fox hopes to get a preliminary injunction against Warners to stop the release of the film. The trial date is set for January 6. I remain optimistic on that front, but I have to because if this movie were to get delayed it would not be a happy day.

To bring it all home, on the question of whether or not Watchmen will become the next 300. I seriously have my doubts. While David hopes it doesn't become the next 300 from a filmmaking perspective (it won't), I don't think it will be a comparative box-office success. It fills such a small niche and the fact it is far more than just an action flick I think will turn off a lot of moviegoers. The trailers are obscure and a lot of people still don't know what the hell you are talking about when you bring up the graphic novel, this despite it is considered one of TIME's 100 best novels of all time.

That said, I hope I am wrong. Warner Bros. has already announced several really cool items that will come as special features on the DVD and Blu-ray releases and the more success the film enjoys I believe the more money Warners will throw into it to appease the fans. We already know the story of "The Black Freighter" will be a part of the DVD/Blu-ray release, but as I told someone recently, I think this may end up being one of the first DVD releases where I will want to watch every minute of every special feature.

Now, go read David's perspective if you haven't done so already, and don't forget to weigh in with your opinion in the comment section below.

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I understand your article and the other article completely, and I also understand why exactly you two say what you say. But I disagree, and my main reasoning is based on the ticket returns for "The Dark Knight."

There's a meat-head side of us and a more intelligent side of us. The meat-head side is easiest (for most) to connect to, but when something truly amazing comes along, like "The Dark Knight," we'll sure as hell connect. What's more, we'll want to connect again and again. That Warner Brothers is producing the film makes me feel very confident that Zack Snyder got a chance to make a great film that is faithful to the novel, just the way it should be.

First, let's look at its opening weekend gross. It'll be big. $530-million-worth of people went to see TDK in theaters this year, and every single one of them saw a trailer for "Watchmen." I know they also saw a trailer for "Body of Lies," which didn't help its box office at all, but I must point out that "Watchmen" was THE trailer that everyone was talking about. People are really looking forward to it. So… butts will be in the seats on March 6. Low end estimate gives it a $50 million opening; high end, $85 million. But I'm expecting $70 million, like "300."

The following weeks? If the film is faithful to the graphic novel, and if it's TRULY good, people will come back, even if it wasn't the meat-headedness they were looking for. How many people walked into TDK on July 18th looking for intelligent entertainment? Not a lot of people, I'll bet. But that's the reason why they returned. It was intelligent and emotionally engaging (come to the think of it, the latter might be the larger reason). I expect "Watchmen" to be the same. Similar to "300," it'll probably have a 3X multiplier for its final box office tally, taking in about $210 domestically. Worldwide, however, I don't expect it to be as big.

I also want to take issue with the idea that girls won't like it as much. I know quite a lot of girls who are totally looking forward to this movie. One is like: "I'm going to get my dad to see it by telling him that it's an action movie based off a graphic novel, and I'm going to get my mom to see it by telling her it has Billy Crudup." College people are very aware of this film, and with its R-rating, that's the audience that'll bring in the greatest box office receipts.

In anything other than box office numbers, however, it's unfair to compare "300" to "Watchmen." Their links are: 1) same director 2) same production company (Warner Bros.) 3) same medium for the original source (graphic novel). But the same could be said about "A Clockwork Orange" and "Eyes Wide Shut"–they both were directed by Kubrick, both being produced by Warner Bros., and both were based off a novel. And yet nobody was calling EWS "The Next Clockwork Orange?" No, they didn't, and it most certainly wasn't. It was totally awesome in a way entirely different from ACO's awesomeness. The same will be true for "Watchmen" and "300."

- JM
( November 24th, 2008 | 3:13 pm )
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