I agree.

That will explain IF Harry Potter doesn't beat the opening day record.
With such a high midnight number, that record should be considered taken. But, if it fails at that, it confirms what you said.
Because midnight showings are just for the fans and nothing else. And Harry Potter has such a HUGE fanbase nowadays, probably the biggest since Star Wars. But when it comes to the regular movie audience, maybe Harry is not as popular as Batman or (ugh!) Transformers.

Let's see.

I for one had no idea they even did midnight screenings until after Pirates Of The Carribean; At World's End came out and those numbers were pretty good.

The Dark Knight, however, had the kind of story that could reach an audience larger than the Batman fanbase. It worked as more than just a comic book film; it worked as a crime drama. Plus, there was a lot of pre-release hype of different varieties, the most notable of which was the performance of Heath Ledger as well as his death.

I remember when the first Harry Potter broke the opening weekend record (oh my, the days when 90 million were a record! :P ) and everyone thought it would top Titanic. But stopped at 320m. A few weeks later, Lord of the Rings opened with something like 45m and did the same total as Harry.

Things just got worse with the latter movies. I don't know why, since from what I read, the series only got better with each new chapter. (I only watched the first movie, so this is not my word)

If this movies reaches 200m in five days (I think it's gonna), it probably will do around 400 million, maybe a little more, but not much more. Around the same numbers Transformers will do.

Both Hary Potter and Transformers are not boxoffice phenomenoms like The Dark Knight was, don't matter how much money they do in their first few days.

Oh, but DEFINITELY this movie will top 1 billion worldwide.
Maybe we're a lucky enough and this Harry Potter can top Mamma Mia at the UK boxoffice? :D

Just quickly, I don't want to get too off topic here; "The Ugly Truth" seems like a misfire to me; first off it looks horrible. Second, it's an R-rated film that's aimed at women- with the exception of "Sex and the City" and other phenomena, R-rated chick flicks falter more often than not. Also, in my opinion, Katherine Heigl and Gerard Butler, as likable as they are, are no Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds. Plus every single time "The Proposal" trailer was played after "The Ugly Truth", "Proposal" won out in audience reaction. Plus it was PG-13 and therefore more accessible to the public. The film could do alright I think, but I'll be surprised if it makes more than $60 million tops, and even that's a stretch.

"Funny People" is not the R-rated Judd Apatow extravaganza that the TV spots make it out to be- it's a comedy with heavy dramatic elements, and one that has a little Oscar buzz if I here correctly. I don't think this film will go over well for the "Knocked Up"/"Superbad" crowd; it's totally not what they expect. I mean, if "Bruno" didn't satiate their raunchy comedy appetite, then nothing else this summer will (except a repeat screening of "The Hangover", which I heartily recommend).

I am now giving up on hope that this series will be vindicated with the two final movies coming up. Yates screwed it up worse than anything. I just hope in another 20 or 30 years when someone tries to remake these novels, they do a good job staying faithful to the story.

Why don't we analyze the weeks between?

July 24 has three major releases in the form of the 3-D family film G-Force, the R-rated chick flick The Ugly Truth, and the horror film Orphan. The big threat this week is G-Force. Apparently the trailer is a hit with the kids and the 3-D factor is a definitive draw, so that could take away some of HP's business. The Ugly Truth will draw away some of the female crowd for sure but not much else so it's probably a non-factor. Orphan is a derivative R-rated horror film so that is definitely a non-factor.

July 31 has two major releases in the form of the Judd Apatow-directed Funny People and the family film Aliens in the Attic. Aliens in the Attic has pretty much no stars and no buzz whatsoever so that's a non-factor so the big threat this weekend is Funny People. This is a bit tricky to call, but like The Hangover, which didn't look like a blockbuster, this far out before it's release date, I believe buzz is growing for this. Test screenings have been very enthusiastic and the R-rated trailer that was recently released has been better received that the original trailer. As shown last weekend, R-rated comedy goers were disappointed with Bruno so they're looking for something to satisfy their craving, which I think Funny People has the potential to do.

I'm just totally ……. shocked. I always knew that the midnight gross would be higher than the one that HP5 made 2 years ago, but …… definetely not at this level. 22 million in just a single midnight showing is just un-freaking-believable. It's now a fact that this week we are having the 3rd 60+ million single day gross in box office history.

For the 5 day I just don't know what can happen, maybe the fan rush was extremely high, more than the one that TF2 had, so that this one will still keep the 5 day record, or maybe it will just be destroyed by Potter.

And yes. Even i want to see Avatar becoming the Biggest Movie of the Year. It Could.